Koreksi Lanjutan Tertahan, IHSG Berakhir Flat

Sempat melemah signifikan pada jeda siang, Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) ditutup flat (turun -3 poin) ke posisi 5213,82 poin di akhir perdagangan awal pekan ini. Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) menyatakan inflasi bulan Mei sebesar 0,5%. Level tersebut naik dibandingkan periode April sebesar 0,36%. Bursa China menguat luar biasa, 4,7% pada penutupan perdagangan hari Senin (1/6) awal pekan. Secara akumulatif…

ITMG: In line with expectations: EBITDA rebounds, strong FCF; Buy

What surprised us PT Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG) reported 1Q15 net profit of US$38mn, representing 23% of our full-year forecast and 26% of Bloomberg consensus. The effective tax rate was higher than expected in 1Q15 (39% vs. GS FY15E of 27%), and we note PBT represented 28% of our full year estimates. Average selling prices (ASP) declined 3% qoq (-15%…

CPI Outlook May 2015

Our economist expects May-15 inflation to rise to 0.51% m-o-m, higher than April-15’s of 0.36% m-o-m, while yearly inflation in May-15 to rise to 7.16% y-o-y. This is mainly due to price increase of foodstuffs ahead of festive season along with pressures from weakening IDR which have an impact on price increase of imported goods. We also expect May-15 core…

GDYR: Akan melakukan stock split

• Dikutip dari Bisnis Indonesia, Good Year Indonesia (GDYR) akan melakukan stock split dengan rasio 1:10 di tahun ini, sebagai upaya untuk memenuhi aturan otoritas bursa tentang jumlah saham yang dimiliki pemegang saham. Dimana mulai 2016, saham yang dimiliki pemegang saham bukan pengendali dan bukan pemegang saham utama adalah paling kurang sebesr 50juta saham, atau 7.5% dari modal disetor. •…

Government to raise Personal Non-Taxable Income (PTKP) threshold to Rp36mn per year (or Rp3mn per month)

Government to raise Personal Non-Taxable Income (PTKP) threshold to Rp36mn per year (or Rp3mn per month), or up by +48% from current threshold of Rp24.3mn per year as stipulated in Minister of Finance Regulation (PMK) no 162/PMK 011/2012. The ruling is expected to take into effect in fiscal year 2015 and the draft proposal was submitted the parliament for consultation….

1st SESSION JCI on 01.06.15 (By: D’ORIGIN – Veni Fitriani)

IHSG @5187.85 (-28.530pts) (-0.547%) (H: 5215.55 ; L: 5186.81) Value: 2.302 T (NG 749 B ) Volume: 41.485 M Lot (NG 24.256 M Lot) Foreign Nett Buy 2.63 B Foreign Value 38.8% Incl.Crossing: SIAP.  @236 ~ 130.73 B (D vs D ) SMGR @13442 ~ 111.82 B (F vs D )** *BUY (Regular) F Buy 446.3 B D Buy 1106.6…

MRT design to be modified, adding IDR1.3tn to project costs

During a meeting with Jakarta government, the directors of Mass Rapid Transit Jakarta expects the construction costs would increase by IDR1.3tn due to design modifications, change in steel specification and land acquisition. The government plans to verify the numbers provided by Mass Rapid Transit Jakarta prior to approving the budget increase.

BWPT: Rajawali bakal melepas 17% sahamnya?

• Dikutip dari Bisnis Indonesia, Rajawali Capital International diperkirakan akan melepas 17% kepemilikannya di PT Eagle High Plantations (BWPT). • Diberitakan dari sumber bisnis Indonesia, bahwa rencana tersebut dilakukan, Rajawali tidak ingin menguasai saham di BWPT sebesar yang dimiliki saat ini. • Hal tersebut sesuai dengan prospectus penerbitan saham baru (rights issue) di tahun lalu, dimana saat ini perusahaan tengah…

Norway’s sovereign wealth fund to cut coal assets

Merkel: Decarbonisation of global economy Norway’s USD900bn sovereign wealth fund, which owns 1.3% of all listed companies globally, agreed in a bipartisan motion that the fund should sell its stake in firms that generate more than 30% of their revenues from coal-related activities. Separately, German chancellor Angela Merkel said recently that the global economy should be decarbonised this century and…

UNTR: Reiterate SELL rating

· Pama has been UNTR’s saviour during the coal industry downturn, booking a higher than average margin of 24% in FY2014. This is largely due to weak IDR. Do note that margins will be squeezed in the future if IDR stabilizes as coal companies must cut costs amid the weak coal price environment. · Low coal prices have also forced…

PTBA buys firms to boost reserves

State-run coal producer PT Bukit Asam announced on Thursday it had acquired two companies in Central Kalimantan in a move expected to provide the mining company with an additional 292 million tons of coal resources. Bukit Asam, in a statement published in the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX), revealed it had taken over coal miner Tabalong Prima Resources (TPR) and coal…

Meeting with Indonesia Shopping Center Management Association

Meeting with Indonesia Shopping Center Management Association  We met with Alphonzus Widjaja, the Secretary-General of Indonesia Shopping Center Management Association. Attached are the key takeaways:  Mall tenants are suffering currently. Mall tenants are experiencing the burden of slowing economy. Discussion with the tenants indicate that their revenue is down by 30-40% YoY, worst hit is the fashion stores….

Indonesia Property: Visit to mortgage lenders

· We recently visited Bank Central Asia (BBCA) and Bank Tabungan Negara (BBTN) following Central Bank’s decision to relax the LTV for first homebuyers from 70% to 80%. As of 3M15, both banks command 45% of the mortgage loan segment. · In contrast to the BI Governor’s statement that the LTV relaxation will boost overall loan growth of the banking…

State bank ATM to start soon

Four state banks will start consolidating their ATMs this June, to be called “ATM Himbara Link”. At the first phase, they will be located in 50 areas within the Jabotabek in which the customers of four banks (Mandiri, BRI, BNI and BTN) can use one ATM for any of their card. The fees has yet to be disclosed but there…

Key takeaway – ARNA analyst meeting

Yesterday, Arwana Citra Mulia (ARNA) conducted analyst meeting. Below keytakeways from the analyst meeting: · Plant-5 Mojokerto – which currently is under construction – is estimated to commence production in September. This plant has capacity of 8m sq m ceramic-tiles per annum (16% of existing production capacity) which will produce wall-tiles. Going forward, Arwana is to expand plant-4 – which…

Indonesian minimarkets: Company visit note: In quest of market share

§ Aggresive growth of minimarkets = higher market share: Our recent visits to the 2 largest minimarket players in Indonesia, AMRT the 2nd largest with 9,861 stores (exhibit 8) and DNET, the holding company for Indomaret (unlisted with 10,367 outlets), Nippon Indosari (ROTI), and Fast Food Indonesia (FAST), reveals continued domination by traditional outlets (2014: 72% share) in the grocery…

PPnBM (luxury tax) changed to PPh (income tax) 22

The Ministry of Finance stated that the government will erase luxury tax towards furnitures, electronic goods, as well as accessories, and will instead be replaced with income tax for imported goods. However, vehicles, airplanes, ships and apartments will still be subjected to luxury tax.

TELE Percepatan pertumbuhan

• Dalam riset report Tiphone Mobile (TELE), Emanuella Clarissa dan Isnaputra Iskandar masih mempertahankan rekomendasi BUY dengan menaikkan TP menjadi IDR1,200 (dari IDR1,150). • Manajemen mengatakan TELE dalam proses finalisasi perjanjian dengan TLKM, untuk menjadi voucher distribusi melalui perbankan swasta. Secara resmi perjanjian tersebut akan diumumkan di bulan July 2015). • Sebagai catatan, distribusi voucher prabayar melalui perbankan mewakili 10-12%…

May15 inflation preview

 Announcement date. The Statistics Agency (BPS) will announce May15 inflation on Monday, June 1th. Below is our expectation for what is coming next week.  Food and administered inflation. We believe food inflation has intensified in May. Although rice price has continued to decline, it was not enough to compensate the increasing price of other food stuffs especially chicken…

Industrial Revolution

With the government’s plan to boost FDI & DDI, we believe that industrial estate players will benefit. Despite marketing sales remaining to be soft, we believe that the growth still has room in the coming years as the country’s GDP continues to grow. DMAS is currently our top pick for the sector at Rp270 PT. Beneficiary of FDI. In the…

TELE: It is a market share gain story…

We recently initiated coverage on Tiphone Mobile (TELE). As the largest prepaid mobile phone voucher distributor in Indonesia, we believe it is a play on the rapidly growing mobile data usage and mobile communication becoming a basic need of Indonesians. While it can be regarded as a defensive stock play, we see growth on TELE to be coming from its…

BBRI: Margin Recovery

 Expect NIM to recover to ~8% in 2H15 on less exposure to high-cost deposits.  YE15 NPL should be maintained at par with the sector, with help from loan restructuring.  Reiterate BUY with TP of IDR15,000 (FY15F: 13.6x PER & 3.2x P/BV). NIM inching closer to 8% We expect BBRI’s 2Q15 loan growth to remain slow on weaker…

Property sector: Relaxing the LTV rule, but impact would be minimum, in our view

 Keeping the promise. According to Kontan, the Central Bank planned to ease the LTV rule for first mortgage loan, from 70% to 80%. The new LTV rule will be out potentially in June. The Central Bank would also ease the second and third LTV for mortgage loan. The Central Bank has stated previously that they planned to ease the…

Gas stations supplied by Pertamina are at an advantage over those supplied by PGAS

Gas stations supplied by Pertamina are at an advantage over those supplied by Perusahaan Gas Negara (PGAS). Margins gained were Rp680 and Rp349 per liter for premium from Pertamina and PGN supplies respectively. Gas stations are unable to pick their suppliers, as the decision comes down to whichever is closest and most accessible given the local infrastructure. Moreover, natural gas…

MYOR: Still sweet

§ April sales volumes recovered on disbursement of cash incentives: Based on our recent visit with management, April sales appear to have already recovered to IDR1.4tn, from the previous quarter’s average of IDR1.2tn/month. The sales recovery is mainly due to higher consumers’ spending in April as the government has reinitiated the start of providing IDR9.82tn direct cash incentives (BLT) to…

Banking Sector: New LTV rule

 The central bank will soon announce the revision on LTV for property ownership, which will increase the financing portion for house, apartment and shop house purchase by an average of 10%. The relaxation will be for the first, second and third or more financing.  The banks will only be able to implement the new regulation, which will be…

East Java’s secondary market land price plummet 10% compared to last quotation, while the price in primary market remains

East Java’s secondary market land price plummet 10% compared to last quotation, while the price in primary market remains. Totok Lucida, head of Indonesian Real Estate Association for East Java, was quoted in saying that the selling price in Ciputra Golf View is around Rp15mn/sqm at the moment, down compared to previous quotation at Rp20-25mn/sqm.

ESSA change its ammonia plant’s contractors

Petrochem company Surya Esa Perkasa (ESSA) change its ammonia plant’s contractors. ESSA hired Toyo Engineering and Inti Karya Persada Teknik (IKPT) in 2013 for the US$550mn Ammonia plant construction with turnkey contract. ESSA decided to change the contractors as Toyo and IKPT asked for 15% contract increase and 5 months delivery delay. ESSA targets the new contractor(s) to start working…

Rice prices start climbing

Rice prices start climbing. Approaching Ramadhan (fasting month), prices of raw foods are starting to climb including rice, shallots and chili. Local newspaper reported that medium grade rice have seen prices appreciated by 1.2% to Rp8,400/kg (US$0.64).

Gaji Rp 3 Juta/Bulan Tak Kena Pajak, Ini Alasannya

Pemerintah berencana menaikkan tingkat Pendapatan Tidak Kena Pajak (PTKP), dari Rp 24,3 juta per tahun menjadi Rp 36 juta per tahun. Jadi gaji Rp 3 juta per bulan akan bebas pajak. Wakil Menteri Keuangan Mardiasmo menuturkan‎, alasan kenaikan PTKP ini karena pendapatan masyarakat secara umum mengalami kenaikan. Ini tergambar pada kenaikan Upah Minimum Provinsi (UMP). “‎PTKP dinaikkan kan memang karena…

The Government may levy an additional 10% VAT on NEW toll roads tariff beginning June2015

The Government may levy an additional 10% VAT on NEW toll roads tariff beginning June2015 – with an upcoming decree from MoF. The toll roads that will incur the new tax regime include: Cikampek-Palimanan and Gempol-Pandaan. Separately, 19 other currently operational toll roads will face tariff adjustments throughout the year and may be imposed with the 10% VAT. 14 will…

ASII: Early signs of improvement

Six specific catalysts investors should heed for Astra: 1) Purchase ahead of Idul Fitri holiday (Lebaran in July) 2) Increase in government spending 3) Indo Auto Show in August, automakers say this usually contributes 5-7% to annual sales. 4) Lower financing rate. BCA targeting 20% growth in auto loans in 2015 5) Potentially 10% higher LTV. Central bank has been…

TELE: Pre-paid growth

● We initiate on Tiphone Mobile Indonesia (TELE) with OUTPERFORM and Rp1,250 TP (29% pot. upside). TELE is the largest mobile phone prepaid voucher distributor in Indonesia. Voucher contributes 60% to sales, and mobile phone distribution is its complementary business. ● TELE distributes Telkomsel’s SIM pack and prepaid cards. Since Sep-14, PT Telkom (parent company of Telkomsel) has owned 25%…

LPLI: Star Pacific Jaga Pertumbuhan Laba Bersih

PT Star Pacific Tbk (LPLI), perusahaan media yang dikendalikan Grup Lippo, tahun ini akan terus menjaga pertumbuhan laba bersih tetap tinggi, sama seperti tahun lalu yakni 88,6 persen. Pertumbuhan akan ditopang efisiensi operasional, pengembangan usaha, serta peningkatan kejelian berinvestasi. Sepanjang 2014, Star Pacific membukukan laba bersih sebesar Rp 527,3 miliar, atau naik 88,6 persen dibanding tahun 2013 yakni Rp 279,5…

Note 28 May 2015

•BI: LTV revision entered final stage with FSA. •JK: sure no plastic rice. •Freeport indonesia pays $27M for 1Q royalty through Bank Rakyat Indonesia. • JKW: signed Presidential Regulation on Fund Raising & CPO Fund. • INVESTMENT: Japan and China stand in line to meet JKW. • GOVT: Proposed increase in taxable income fm IDR.24 to 36M/yr has been submitted…

ISAT: 1Q15 result largely

ISAT 1Q15 Summary: Revenue Rp 6,093bn (-4% QoQ, +6% YoY), 25% CLSA Ebitda Rp 2,604bn (+7% QoQ, 0% YoY), 24% CLSA NPAT -Rp 456bn (N/A) -184% CLSA Key points: While revenue was in line, blended ARPU dropped 7% YoY and 14% QoQ as subscribers grew 11.4% YoY, and 5.3% QoQ. Indosat low pricing strategy followed its network modernization effort that…

Equities Recovering Some of Yesterday’s Losses

U.S. stocks are trading higher in late-morning action, recovering from yesterday’s solid losses that were exacerbated by a jump in the U.S. dollar as domestic data and recent Fed commentary appeared to foster flared-up rate hike uncertainty. Earnings results from Tiffany & Co, Michael Kors and Toll Brothers were mixed, while U.S. mortgage applications declined. Treasuries are declining along with…

Auto producers expect Gaikindo Indonesia International Auto Show (GIIAS) 2015 to boost sales

Auto producers expect Gaikindo Indonesia International Auto Show (GIIAS) 2015 to boost sales. The event will be held on 20-30Aug15 at the Indonesia Convention Exhibition (IEC) in Bumi Serpong Damai (BSD). Head of Mitsubishi Indonesia stated the sales in the motor show contributed ~7% (1.6k units) to their total passenger car sales in 2014, from Pajero Sport, Outlander Sport, Mirage,…

A number of banks have gone ahead with trimming interest on deposits

A number of banks have gone ahead with trimming interest on deposits. BCA for example has lowered interest on deposits by 25 basis points every month to lower the amount of deposits. In March of this year, the amount of deposits to BCA rose by 21.5% to Rp110.3tn, hence raising the interest on deposits by 16%, higher than the return…

Furnitur, TV, Hingga Tas Perempuan Bakal Bebas Pajak Barang Mewah

Pemerintah bakal merevisi aturan Pajak Penjualan Barang Mewah (PPnBM). Sejumlah barang akan dikeluarkan dari aturan pengenaan PPnBM, yang selama ini diatur dalam Peraturan Menteri Keuangan (PMK) Nomor 130/PMK.011/2013. Menteri Keuangan Bambang Brodjonegoro menuturkan, beberapa barang yang akan bebas PPnBM adalah televisi (TV), furnitur, meubel, dan aksesoris‎ seperti tas perempuan. “Kami akan siapkan PMK untuk menghapus beberapa barang yang selama ini…

Heavy Dose of Data Weighs on Equities

The U.S. equity markets closed the trading session with sharp losses as investors were treated to a slew of domestic economic reports that aided in a rally for the U.S. dollar with some market participants deciphering the deluge of data as supportive of the Federal Reserve commencing the tightening of its monetary policy. Treasuries were mostly higher following the data,…

SMRA: Another successful launch in Summarecon Serpong

Akhir pekan lalu, Summarecon Serpong meluncurkan fase kedua Summarecon Serpong Midtown. Kami memprediksi dua menara yang sedang dipasarkan perseroan dapat menghasilkan marketing sales Rp700 miliar-Rp900 miliar. Kami memprediksi sejak awal tahun, SMRA mampu mengumpulkan marketing sales Rp2,25 triliun, 39% dari target FY2015F Rp5,5 triliun. Saat ini saham perseroan ditransaksikan pada valuasi 51% diskon terhadap NAV dan PE ratio FY2016F sebesar…

TBIG: One-Offs Crimp 1Q15 Numbers

TBIG’s 1Q15 EBITDA was below our/consensus expectations due to the cancellation of BTel tenancies, coupled with one-off adjustments on its master leases to factor in the electricity pass-through mechanism. Maintain NEUTRAL with our TP lowered to IDR9,700 (8% upside, from IDR10,000) after moderating our core profit estimates for FY15-FY17. TBIG’s shares have de-rated by 7.5% YTD, after rallying 64% in…

Indonesian Plantations Update: Gradual recovery

§ High El Nino possibility to lower production and raise CPO prices: The Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA) projects a high El Nino probability (exhibit 13) with SST anomaly level above 1, threatening South East Asia, which would negatively impact CPO production in Indonesia and Malaysia. Given that El Nino was last seen in 2009, its occurrence this…

April trade figures: Surplus on slowing imports

April exports: Continued decline, by 8.46% y-y to USD13.1bn § Exports dropped 8.46% y-y, on lower oil and gas exports: Worse than market estimates, March exports declined 8.46% y-y and 4.04% m-m to USD13.1bn. This follows a decline of 9.7% y-y for March, mainly due to continued weak global demand and lower oil prices, which resulted in decreased oil &…

Indonesia Strategy – LTV Relaxation on Property and Automotive: More of a Boost for Automotive Volume vs Property

Upcoming relaxation in property and automotive LTV: The Central Bank (BI) has announced that it is reviewing a relaxation of the loan-to-value (LTV) ratio for mortgage and automotive sectors. Central Bank Governor Agus Martowardojo said that the revised rule is being finalized with OJK, and will likely be issued in June. Deputy BI Governor Halim Alamsyah said that property and…

ISAT: 1Q15 results: In-line EBITDA; Disappointing bottom line on forex

Disappointing net loss of IDR456bn On the back of a forex loss of IDR688bn (1Q14: forex gain IDR880bn), ISAT reported disappointing 1Q15 net loss of IDR456bn (1Q14: net profit IDR797bn). However, going forward, the company plans to lower its dollar debt level at the end of 2015. Strong data-volume usage supported revenue On the back of strong data usage of…

Motorcycles manufacturers began to cut working hours

Subsidiary of Astra International (ASII), Astra Honda Motor (AHM) has reduced production due to the trend of sluggish motorcycle sales since the beginning of this year. To be efficient, AHM began to cut the working hours of employees at the factory. However, until now, the company have not laid off employees. The company reduced working hours for overtime hours on…

So Much for “Sell in May and Go Away”

· Global equities push higher · Markets look past weak US economic data – equities rise on the “Goldilocks” combination of growth and modest interest rate rises spread over many years · Dollar rises on inevitability of first rate hike in the US this year · Weaker EUR and JPY drive European and Japanese stocks up · “Grexit” fears rise…