IMAS 2Q14 performance: Disappointing on weak operating margins
§ Net loss of IDR26bn: On the back of weak operating margins, IMAS booked disappointing 2Q14 net loss of IDR26bn, resulting in 1H14 earnings of IDR49bn, down 87% y-y. This 1H14 results represent only 9% of our and 5% of the consensus full-year estimates.
§ Continued weak auto sales: IMAS’ 2Q14 top line reached IDR4.65tn, down 17% y-y but up 1% q-q. This was due to continued weak 2Q14 sales volumes for Nissan (including Datsun) of 10.7k units, (down 27% y-y and 14% q-q), representing only 3.4% of the domestic 4W 2Q14 market share (2Q13:4.8%; 1Q14: 3.8%).
§ Not enough margin improvement q-q: The company booked improved q-q 2Q14 operating margin to 2.6% (1Q14: 0.9%). Hence, with high operational leverage, the margin is still not enough to help the company book positive earnings, especially with higher interest expense and lower other income contribution.
Outlook: IMAS likely to keep struggling for market share
Although we expect Datsun to improve Nissan sales volumes in 2H14, we believe IMAS will still struggle for market share, especially as IMAS is losing the battle in the low MPV segment. We expect IMAS’ net-profit margin to remain depressed on intensifying competition, the opening of several new dealerships and high interest expense.
Recommendation: Reaffirm REDUCE and IDR4,000 TP
Shares of IMAS are trading at a 22.7x 2014F PE, a 31% premium to regional peers. We reaffirm our REDUCE rating on IMAS and 12-month TP of IDR4,000 (based on 20x 2014F PE). Thus, we expect IMAS severe market underperformance of 27% ytd (exhibit 4) to persist. Risks to our view include higher Datsun sales and margins.
State-owned tin miner (TINS) starts looking at property sector. The miner stated its plan to set up a subsidiary to collaborate with state-owned contracting companies, Adhi Karya (ADHI) and Wijaya Karya (WIKA). The first project is going to be in Bekasi (East Jakarta) where Timah has 176 ha of land reserves.
U.S. equities finished a choppy session lower, as continuing geopolitical tensions were further stoked after the U.S and European Union imposed further sanctions on Russia, paring early gains that came amid upbeat earnings and economic data. Dow members Merck & Co and Pfizer bested the Street’s expectations, while U.S. Consumer Confidence jumped to the highest level since October 2007. Meanwhile, traders may have been treading with some caution ahead of tomorrow’s monetary policy decision by the Fed, along with the first look at 2Q U.S. GDP. In other earnings news, UPS posted mixed quarterly results and disappointed with its guidance, while Aetna’s higher medical costs overshadowed its stronger-than-expected results, and Herbalife fell short of analysts’ forecasts. Treasuries finished slightly higher amid the mix of news, and as a separate report showed domestic home prices came in below expectations, while gold was lower, crude oil prices were mixed, and the U.S. dollar gained ground.
Electronic City (ECII) targets 30% sales growth this year. To meet this target, the electronic retailer plans to open 20 stores this year, currently the company has opened 10 stores, bringing total store number to 66. This month alone, it has opened 2 stores, one is East Jakarta and another in Lombok island. The company stated that seasonally 3Q and 4Q will be stronger as there are boost from the Lebaran, Christmas and New Year.
The U.S. equity markets recovered from some early-session losses and closed the trading day near the flatline as the Street prepares for a deluge of economic data and corporate earnings reports set to be released this week. Treasuries were lower following domestic reports that showed pending home sales unexpectedly fell and growth in business activity slipped, while expansion in regional manufacturing activity accelerated. Additional releases from the economic calendar this week that will garner some attention include Friday’s July labor report, Wednesday’s advance read on 2Q GDP and the Federal Reserve’s two-day monetary policy meeting. On the equity front, Dollar Tree agreed to acquire Family Dollar Stores for about $9.2 billion, while Zillow agreed to acquire Trulia for $3.5 billion. In earning news, Tyson Foods missed the Street’s earnings expectations, but posted stronger-than-expected revenues and guidance. Meanwhile, crude oil prices and gold were lower, while the U.S. dollar was nearly unchanged.
The U.S. equity markets are hovering around the unchanged mark in early action, with geopolitical concerns festering, while the Street is bracing for a plethora of earnings and economic data. Treasuries are modestly lower, ahead of reports on business activity, housing sales, and regional manufacturing output due out after the opening bell. In equity news, Dollar Tree agreed to acquire Family Dollar Stores for about $9.2 billion in cash and stock, including debt, while Tyson Foods posted mixed quarterly results. Gold and crude oil prices are lower, while the U.S. dollar is flat. Overseas, Asian stocks finished mixed, with Chinese stocks rallying on growing economic optimism, while European equities are mostly lower in afternoon action.
O-renz taxi, Astra’s taxi subsidiary, plans to conduct feasibility study for Jakarta market next year. The company still believes with Jakarta’s taxi demand even with high competition on the space. The barrier to entry for the taxi industry will be the licensing but the company still targets to have 600 fleets in Jakarta area. O-renz taxi currently will have 1,300 units in Surabaya by end of this year.
Indonesia’s leading telecoms operator, beneficiary of growing data usage & growing middle class.
2Q14 a solid quarter with gains across its revenue stream helped by stable competition.
Reasonable valuations with some downside support from estimated dividend yield of 4.4%.
Addondips. Investment Summary
1) 1H14 results in line – Telkom (TLKM)’s 1H14 reported net profit of Rp7.4 trillion grew 4% yoy, 3% qoq, tracking in line with full year estimates. 1H14 revenues of Rp43.5 trillion grew 8.4% yoy/+4.9% qoq, driven by data while traditional mobile voice revenue still continued to contribute to growth with a decent +6.4% yoy growth (Rp16.4trillion). On the mobile side, cellular subsidiary Telkomsel’s (unlisted) revenue grew 10.3% yoy, with continued momentum from 1Q14’s 9.8% yoy growth, benefitting from regional tariff increases launched in 4Q13 and continued monetization of smartphone driven data growth. 3G smartphone subscriber number grew 56.8% to 31.2mln, making up about 22.7% of total subscriber base with ARPU improving as users upgrade their mobile handsets to 3G smartphones. Guidance for 2014 maintained for slightly above market revenue growth, slight decline in margins and group capex estimated at 20-25% of revenue (70% allocated to wireless operations). Management maintained 5mln fixed broadband subs target by end of the year, expecting stronger take up from its low end product (“Speedy Instan”).
2) Continues to extend its 3G network lead, positive mobile growth outlook – In its analyst briefing, management updated that wireless data traffic growth continues to be robust at 151% yoy (19.1% qoq) driven by growth in smartphone penetration (23% in 2Q) and a larger data user base (63.3mln). The 3G population coverage is estimated at 60% with 300 cities under covered, with the next focus to be on improving service quality in 30 selected cities. Looking ahead, a small scale of 4G/LTE services may be launched by early 2015 using the 900 MHz spectrum, with more meaningful launch expected after regulatory clarity on usage of 900/1800/2100 MHz bands.
3) Buy rating maintained with raised target of IDR2900
implying 17x FY15E PER, still reasonable compared to peers, while estimated forward dividend yield of +4.4% provides some downside support. The competitive environment is supportive, while TLKM remains well positioned to benefit from growth trends in voice revenue and wireless data with its scale advantage, balance sheet strength and steady execution. Our positive view on the company is premised on an improving competitive landscape and growing middle class in Indonesia (increasing 3G smartphone sales bodes well for data traffic and revenue trends over the medium term).
1) Irrational price competition, regulatory/policy risks, aggressive acquisitions creating overhang
2) Weaker than expected pick up in data revenue, revenue decline in fixed lines, higher than expected increase in capex to support a rapid network rollout
3) Worse than expected macro-economic deterioration
Ahok infuriated by irregularities at vehicle emissions test center. Deputy Governor Basuki “Ahok” Purnama together with Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK) inspected an emissions-test center in Kedaung Kali Angke, West Jakarta during lunch and found several irregularities. They found most of the equipment did not function properly and officials wearing Transportation Agency uniforms were not actually civil servants. Followign the inspection, the city administration decided to temporarily shut down the Kedaung center to launch an investigation.
The U.S. equity markets ended the trading session deep in negative territory as stocks were influenced lower by continued geopolitical concerns and some disappointing domestic earnings reports. Treasuries were mostly higher despite the lone economic release showing a stronger-than-expected read on domestic durable goods orders. On the equity front, Amazon.com posted a larger-than-expected loss and issued disappointing guidance and Dow member Visa lowered its revenue forecast, while Starbucks announced better-than-expected results that were overshadowed by a disappointing revision to its full-year profit guidance. Gold and the U.S. dollar were higher, while crude oil prices were mixed.
PP (PTPP) telah mengeluarkan laporan keuangan (belum audit) dengan penjualan pada semester I-2014 sebesar Rp4,6 triliun, naik 10% dibandingkan dengan pendapatan pada semester I-2013 sebesar Rp4,2 triliun. Laba kotor pada semester I-2014 tercatat sebesar Rp537 miliar, meningkat 32% dibandingkan periode yang sama tahun sebelumnya sebesar Rp408 miliar. Marjin laba kotor perseroan pada semester I-2014 naik menjadi 12% dari 10% pada semester I-2013. Sementara itu, laba sebelum pajak perseroan tumbuh 9% menjadi Rp292 miliar pada semester I-2014 dari Rp269 miliar pada semester I-2013. Laba bersih perseroan tercatat sebesar Rp147 miliar, meningkat 2% dibandingkan dengan laba bersih tahun sebelumnya sebesar Rp717 miliar. Marjin laba bersih perseroan turun tipis menjadi 3,2% pada semester I-2014 dari 3,4% pada semester I-2013.
Ace Hardware Indonesia (ACES) telah mengeluarkan laporan keuangan (belum audit) dengan penjualan pada semester I-2014 sebesar Rp2,2 triliun, tumbuh 21,6% dibandingkan dengan pendapatan pada semester I-2013 sebesar Rp1,8 triliun. Laba kotor pada semester I-2014 tercatat sebesar Rp1,1 triliun, meningkat 22,8% dibandingkan periode yang sama tahun sebelumnya sebesar Rp861 miliar. Marjin laba kotor perseroan pada semester I-2014 naik menjadi 48,7% dari 48,2% pada semester I-2013. Sementara itu, laba sebelum pajak perseroan naik 34,6% menjadi Rp302 miliar pada semester I-2014 dari Rp224 miliar pada semester I-2013. Laba bersih perseroan tercatat sebesar Rp246 miliar, naik 32,5% dibandingkan dengan laba bersih tahun sebelumnya sebesar Rp185 miliar. Marjin laba bersih perseroan naik menjadi 11,3% pada semester I-2014 dari 10,4% pada semester I-2013.
1H14 net profit was in line with expectations (+11.3% yoy, +7.6% qoq, 51% of our FY14 forecast)
One-off gain of IDR440b from investment in JV Astra Aviva Life boosted 2Q14 profit. Excluding that, net profit -1.7% qoq.
Its core automotive business continues to see margin pressure. Profit of agribusiness up sharply. Performances of other divisions holding up well.
Astra International (ASII) reported net profit of IDR9,815b (+11.3% yoy, +7.6% qoq) in 1H14, in line with our expectations and accounting for 47% of our full year forecast. We note that 2Q14 earnings are partially boosted by the IDR440b gain from investment in new JV Astra Aviva Life. Core net profit excluding the IDR440b gain came in at IDR9,375b (+6.3% yoy, -1.7% qoq).
Automotive division continue to face margin pressure. It now accounts for 41% of Astra earnings (down from 51% in FY13).
Financial services division (25% of earnings in 1H14) still doing well with profit up 14.5%, largely boosted by one-off gain of IDR440b from JV Astra Aviva Life.
Heavy equipment divisions (20% of earnings in 1H14) show strong yoy profit growth from low base last year. But we anticipate headwinds ahead as coal price remains very weak.
Agribusiness division’s (11% of earnings in 1H14) profit shoot up 91% yoy due to higher internal (nucleus production) and higher CPO price.
Highlights from the result
• Margins in automotive business remain under pressure with EBITmargin of 1.8% in 2Q14 vs 2.4% in 1Q14 and 2.5% in 2Q13. The component parts business continues to face margin pressure. Intensifying competition put a lot of pressure on automakers (Astra Daihatsu Motor profit declined 19% yoy and -17% qoq in 2Q14), which in turn put pressure on distribution and component parts producers.
• Astra Honda profit declined 5% qoq despite 9% qoq increase in volume, implying a time lag in passing on cost increases. Year on year trend remain stable with profit +5.9% yoy.
• Financial services division still doing well as NPls remain under control due to high down payment requirements. Profit for the division up 14.5%, boosted by IDR440b one off gain.
• Profit from Astra Agro up sharply yoy (+91% yoy in 1H14) but down marginally qoq (-26% qoq). Strong volume and much higher CPO price boost profit of Astra Agro (Agribusiness).Fresh fruit bunch (FFB) production from internal estate up 14.8% yoy. Extraction rate down slightly from 22.36% in 1H13 to 21.98% in 1H14, FFA content also rises from 3.29% in 1H13 to 3.66% in 1H14, reflecting a lower quality of FFB harvested/processed.Sales volume down 10.3% yoy (while production up) implies Astra Agro held back some inventory, but higher CPO selling price of IDR8728/kg (vs 6638/kg in 1H13) is more than offset the decline in sales volume.
• United Tractors (heavy equipment division) still sees pressure on new equipment sales (-10% yoy), but margins expand as it benefits from weak rupiah. Its revenues are largely based in USD while costs are partially rupiah (around 20% of costs are rupiah).
Astra International share price will benefit from any major fund flow to Indonesia, but the tight competition in its underlying automotive business will keep profit growth at single digits at best. Our target price is nearly achieved and we are reviewing our target price and recommendation.
Ultrajaya Milk Industry & Trading Company (ULTJ) telah merilis laporan keuangan (belum audit) dengan penjualan pada semester I-2014 sebesar Rp1,9 triliun, tumbuh 12,7% dibandingkan dengan pendapatan pada semester I-2013 sebesar Rp1,7 triliun. Laba kotor pada semester I-2014 tercatat sebesar Rp430 miliar, turun 20,2% dibandingkan periode yang sama tahun sebelumnya sebesar Rp539 miliar. Marjin laba kotor perseroan pada semester I-2014 berkurang menjadi 22,6% dari 31,9% pada semester I-2013. Sementara itu, laba sebelum pajak perseroan anjlok 44,5% menjadi Rp163 miliar pada semester I-2014 dari Rp294 miliar pada semester I-2013. Laba bersih perseroan tercatat sebesar Rp125 miliar, jatuh 43,3% dibandingkan dengan laba bersih tahun sebelumnya sebesar Rp220 miliar. Marjin laba bersih perseroan turun menjadi 6,5% pada semester I-2014 dari 13% pada semester I-2013.
SMGR 2Q14 earnings were in line at IDR1,523bn (+16.9% q-o-q), driven by a higher sales volume and wider EBIT margin. Although its competitors increased their capacity, Semen Indonesia’s market share still rose to 44.2% in 2Q14 (1Q14: 43.8%). Its Vietnam unit, Thang Long Cement, is now running at maximum capacity. We rise our TP to IDR20,500 (from IDR18,000) on 18x FY15 P/E as we roll over our valuation base to FY15 earnings. Maintain BUY
¨ A better quarter. Semen Indonesia’s 1H14 earnings of IDR2,826bn (+10.5% y-o-y) were in line, at 47/48% of our/consensus full-year estimates. On a quarterly basis, 2Q14 earnings rose 16.9% q-o-q to IDR1,523bn, driven by a higher sales volume of 7.2m tonnes (+6.2% q-o-q). Although its ASP was flat at IDR927k/tonne (+2.3% q-o-q), the company’s EBIT margin widened to 28.7% in 2Q14 from 26.5% in 1Q14 thanks to a lower 2Q14 cost of goods sold (COGS) per unit, which was at IDR500k/tonne (-2.7% q-o-q). We expect earnings to be stronger in 2H14 as cement sales in 2H are cyclically higher than in 1H.
¨ Stronger in both domestic and overseas market. Although its competitors raised their production capacity, Semen Indonesia’s domestic market share still grew to 44.2% in 2Q14 from 43.8% in 1Q14. The company’s 2Q14 sales volume grew 6.7% q-o-q and outpaced the national figure, which rose 5.6% q-o-q. Regionally, its presence also strengthened. Its Vietnamese unit Thang Long Cement (TLCC) – which is located in Quang Ninh, North Vietnam – is now running at maximum capacity. Semen Indonesia expects to build or acquire a new cement plant in South Vietnam, which could help it distribute cement across the country and also to neighbouring countries such as Cambodia, Laos and Bangladesh.
¨ We raise TP to IDR20,500. As we roll over our valuation base to FY15 earnings, we raised our TP to IDR20,500 (from IDR18,000), premised on 18.0x FY15 P/E. We see that the company stands to reap the most benefits from the robust domestic demand for cement in the future, due to its high unutilized capacity. Also, its diversified plant locations make it easier for the company to supply cement across Indonesia. Risks: new players coming into the Indonesian market; Higher coal prices and electricity tariffs; Higher mortgage rates tempering property sales growth.
Astra Agro Lestari (AALI) telah merilis laporan keuangan (belum audit) dengan penjualan pada semester I-2014 sebesar Rp8 triliun, tumbuh 46% dibandingkan dengan pendapatan pada semester I-2013 sebesar Rp5,5 triliun. Laba kotor pada semester I-2014 tercatat sebesar Rp2,5 triliun, meningkat 71% dibandingkan periode yang sama tahun sebelumnya sebesar Rp1,5 triliun. Marjin laba kotor perseroan pada semester I-2014 naik menjadi 31% dari 27% pada semester I-2013. Sementara itu, laba sebelum pajak perseroan naik 112% menjadi Rp2 triliun pada semester I-2014 dari Rp946 miliar pada semester I-2013. Laba bersih perseroan tercatat sebesar Rp1,37 triliun, naik 91% dibandingkan dengan laba bersih tahun sebelumnya sebesar Rp717 miliar. Marjin laba bersih perseroan naik menjadi 17% pada semester I-2014 dari 13% pada semester I-2013.
Astra International (ASII), pada semester I-2014, membukukan laba komprehensif yang dapat diatribusikan kepada pemilik entitas induk sebesar Rp9,6 triliun, naik 10,9% dibandingkan dengan Rp8,65 triliun pada paruh waktu pertama tahun lalu. Pada semester I-2013, perolehan laba bersih ASII tercatat turun 6,2% dibandingkan dengan pencapaian laba komprehensif yang dapat diatribusikan kepada pemilik entitas induk pada 2012 sebesar Rp9,23 triliun. Demikian juga halnya perolehan pendapatan emiten tersebut pada paruh waktu pertama tahun lalu yang turun 1,71% menjadi Rp94,28 triliun dibandingkan dengan Rp95,92 triliun pada semester I-2014. Perseroan menyatakan, kinerja hingga akhir tahun diperkirakan masih baik, meskipun setiap unit bisnis memiliki tantangan, seperti bisnis mobil yang masih menghadapai kompetisi tinggi tahun ini. Grup Astra fokus pada enam lini bisnis inti yaitu divisi otomotif, jasa keuangan, alat berat dan pertambangan, agribisnis, infrastruktur dan logistik, serta teknologi informasi. Laba bersih divisi otomotif turun 9% menjadi Rp4 triliun. Turunnya laba ini disebabkan perang diskon yang masih berlanjut di pasar mobil, meski sebenarnya permintaan kendaraan bermotor tetap baik pada semester I-2014. Total penjualan mobil nasionalnya selama semester I-2014 sebenarnya naik 7% menjadi 642.000 unit. Penjualan mobil Grup Astra (Toyota, Daihatsu, Isuzu, UD Trucks, dan Peugeot) naik 4% menjadi 334.000 unit, dengan pangsa pasar yang turun dari 53% menjadi 52%. Sementara itu, penjualan sepeda motor nasional naik 7% menjadi 4,2 juta unit. Penjualan sepeda motor Honda keluaran PT Astra Honda Motor naik 11% menjadi 2,6 juta unit, dengan peningkatan pangsa pasar dari 60% menjadi 62%.
Construction of Pejagan-Pemalang toll road in Central Java officially started on Wednesday; progress seen in Trans-Java toll road construction. This marks the first step for the gov’t to begin the Trans-Java toll road project that will link the western and eastern ends of Java. Public Works Minister Djoko Kirmanto said the toll road will consist of 4 parts: 1) the 14.2km Pejagan-West Brebes; 2) 6km of West Brebes-East Brebes; 3) 10.4km of East Brebes-East Tegal; 4) 29.6km of East Tegal-Pemalang. Almost 100% of land needed for first and second sections are already acquired. Gov’t targets to complete construction of first and second sections by end-2015. The toll road operator, Pejagan Pemalang Toll Road (PPTR), which was recently acquired by SOE construction firm Waskita (WSKT IJ), will carry out the highway construction. The toll road is expected to ease the burden on Java’s northern coastal road (Pantura) which has been Java island’s transportation backbone.
§ 2Q14 bottom line -61.5% q-q and -60.9% y-y: BEST booked weak 2Q14 earnings of IDR35bn (28% of our 2Q14 estimate), bringing the 1H14 bottom line to IDR125bn (-52.4% y-y). The 1H14 result was below our (27% of 1H14 estimate) and consensus (20%) estimates.
§ Weak top line on low industrial land recognition: Slower-than-expected construction progress and certification approval problems have caused slow industrial land hand-overs. This resulted in BEST’s 2Q14 land recognition of only 3.3ha (1Q14: 7.6ha), and a fall in the 2Q14 top line to IDR86bn (-45.0% q-q; -49.5% y-y) with 1H14 revenue at IDR244bn (-45.1% y-y).
§ Booking 1H14 marketing sales of only 10.5ha: In 2Q14, BEST booked slightly better industrial pre-sales of 7ha (1Q14: 3.5ha), translating to 1H14 industrial pre-sales of 10.5ha. However, this only accounts for 26% to the management’s target of 40ha (-33% y-y) or around 35% of our more conservative target of 30ha (-50% y-y).
Outlook: Revising down our 2014-15 earnings by 5-28%
Given the slower-than-expected industrial land sales recognition, we have cut our 2014-15 earnings by 28% and 5% respectively (exhibit 6). However, we still maintain our 2014 industrial pre-sales target of 30ha (25% lower than management’s target) as we expect foreign investors’ appetite to start improving in 4Q14 with a clearer picture of the political environment.
Rating & valuation: Maintaining our REDUCE call and IDR465 TP
We maintain our IDR465 TP, based on a 60% discount to our 2015F NAV. With 20% downside potential to our TP, we reiterate our REDUCE call on BEST. We see the stock’s 24% outperformance in the last 1M (exhibit 4) as an opportunity to exit the stock given BEST’s continued weak performance. The main upside risk is better-than-expected industrial land sales.
United Tractor (UNTR) merilis kinerja semester I-2014 dengan pendapatan konsolidasi sebesar Rp 27,53 triliun atau naik 11% dibandingkan dengan Rp 24,9 triliun pada periode sama tahun 2013. Secara umum, kinerja UNTR ditopang oleh pelemahan mata uang Rupiah terhadap dolar AS yang, pada posisi akhir Juni 2014 (Rp 11.969 per dolar AS) melemah sebesar 21% dibandingkan dengan posisi akhir Juni 2013 (Rp 9.929 per dolar AS). Laba kotor selama semester I-2014 naik sebesar 34% menjadi Rp 5,7 triliun dibandingkan dengan Rp 4,3 triliun selama semester I-2013. Pertumbuhan laba kotor menghasilkan peningkatan marjin laba kotor selama semester I-2014 menjadi 20,8% dibandingkan dengan 17,3% pada periode sama tahun 2013. Sementara itu, laba periode berjalan selama semester I-2014 naik sebesar 41% menjadi Rp 3,3 triliun dibandignkan dengan Rp 2,3 triliun pada periode sama tahun 2013. Pada gilirannya, laba bersih selama semester I-2014 meningkat sebesar 42% menjadi Rp 3,3 triliun dibandingkan dengan Rp 2,3 triliun pada semester I-2013.
Mandom Indonesia (TCID) , selama semester I-2014, mencatatkan penjualan bersih sebesar Rp 1,2 triliun atau naik sebesar 19% dibandingkan dengan semester I-2013 sebesar Rp 989,2 miliar. Selama semester I-2014, laba kotor naik sebesar 30% menjadi Rp 445,7 miliar dibandingkan dengan semester I-2013 sebesar Rp 342,7 miliar. Marjin laba kotor selama semester I-2014 meningkat menjadi 37,8% dibandingkand 34,6% selama semester I-2013. Di lain pihak, laba usaha selama semester I-2014 meningkatn sebesar 28,5% menjadi Rp 132,6 miliar dibandingkan Rp 103,2 miliar selama semester I-2013. Laba periode berjalan selama semester I-2014 mencapai Rp 94,4 miliar, atau naik sebesar 20,9% dibandingkan dengan semester I-2013 sebesar Rp 78,1 miliar. Marjin laba bersih selama semester I-2014 mencapai 8,0% dibandingkan dengan 7,9% pada periode sama tahun lalu.
BBNI mencatat laba bersih semester I tumbuh 15,4% menjadi Rp4,9 triliun, sesuai ekspektasi dengan pencapaian 48,1% dari target laba 2014 kami, dan 50,5% dari konsensus. Kredit tumbuh 15% dan DPK tumbuh 19%, berhasil membuat likuiditas membaik dengan turunnya LDR ke level 80,3% dari 84,0% ditengah tren naik LDR industri ke level 90%. Likuiditas yang kuat akan menopang pertumbuhan yang berkelanjutan dalam penyaluran kredit kedepannya. Didukung dengan kinerja yang sesuai ekspektasi, kami merekomendasikan BELI dengan target harga Rp5600, mengimplikasikan PBV 2014 sebesar 1,8x.
Laba bersih semester I tumbuh 15,4% menjadi Rp4,9 triliun, sesuai ekspektasi. Mencapai 48,1% dari target laba 2014 kami, dan 50,5% dari konsensus. Kredit tumbuh 15% dan DPK tumbuh 19%, berhasil membuat likuiditas membaik dengan turunnya LDR ke level 80,3% dari 84,0%. NIM bertahan dilevel 6,0% dari 6,2%, akibat tingginya kompetisi memperebutkan dana nasabah, tercermin dari turunnya rasio CASA dari 68,2% ke level 61,9%. Disisi lain, kualitas aset membaik dengan turunnya NPL dari 2,6% menjadi 2,2%.
Perkembangan likuiditas lebih baik dari perkiraan. Rasio LDR berhasil turun ke level 80,3% ditengah tren naik LDR industri ke level 90%. Manajemen mengungkapkan peningkatan DPK salah satunya didorong dari sedikit nasabah besar yang menyimpan dana secara temporer. Tanpa memperhitungkan dana ini, LDR berada dikisaran 85%, tetap lebih baik dibanding industri. Dengan menggunakan deposito sebagai penyeimbang likuiditas, kami ekspektasikan rasio CASA dapat dijaga pada level 60%, sehingga NIM tetap terjaga dilevel 6%.
BELI, target harga Rp5600. Likuiditas yang kuat akan menopang pertumbuhan yang berkelanjutan dalam penyaluran kredit kedepannya. Didukung dengan kinerja yang sesuai ekspektasi, kami merekomendasikan BELI dengan target harga Rp5600, mengimplikasikan PBV 2014 sebesar 1,8x.
BSDE 2Q14 performance: Propelled by major one-off gain
§ 2Q14 bottom line +325% q-q and +564% y-y: BSDE recorded 2Q14 net profit of IDR2.1tn (463% above our 2Q14 estimate), +325% q-q and +564% y-y, translating to 1H14 net profit of IDR2.6tn (+67.2% y-y). The 1H14 result was above our (128%) and consensus’ (126%) estimates. This marks the analyst transfer of coverage
§ Earnings jump on equity investment income: BSDE’s bottom line was majorly propelled by its equity investment income (below operating line) of IDR1.6tn. This was generated as a result of BSDE’s acquisition gain from its 34.22% stake in Plaza Indonesia (PLIN IJ-IDR2,600-NOT RATED) derived as the differential between acquisition cost versus its fair value.
§ Top line mainly supported by land sales recognition: Stripping-out a total one-off revenue of IDR1.3tn from JV land sales in 1H13, BSDE booked 1H14 organic growth of +53.1% y-y. Land sales was the main contributor to 2Q14 revenue as it grew by 156% q-q, whereas residential sales increased at a more moderate rate of 17% y-y.
Outlook: Maintaining our 2014-15 above operating line figures
On our 2014-15F earnings, we maintain our above operating line figures as we view that 1H14 result is still in line with our numbers. However, as we make adjustment on the one-off gain from equity investment, we raise our 2014F net profit by 79%. As such, we maintain our 2014 full-year marketing sales of IDR6tn (1H14: IDR2.7tn), with more contribution expected from residential housings pre-sales in 2H14.
Rating & valuation: Raising TP to IDR1,750 and maintain HOLD
On rolling over our valuation basis to 2015, we raise our TP to IDR1,750 (From: IDR1,675) based on 40% discount to its NAV. However, with only 8% upside to our TP, we maintain our HOLD call on the stock. The risk to our call includes variations in residential house sales and interest rate hikes.
Lippo Cikarang (LPCK) merilis laporan keuangan untuk periode yang berakhir 30 Juni 2014 dengan pendapatan Rp 850,3 miliar atau naik sebesar 52,7% dibandingkan pencapaian periode yang sama tahun 2013 sebesar Rp 556, 73 miliar. Laba bruto selama semester I-2014 tumbuh sebesar 45,6% menjadi Rp 507,8 miliar dibandingkan dengan Rp 348.9 miliar semester I-2013. Sementara itu, marjin laba kotor pada selama semester I-2014 mencapai 59,7% atau lebih rendah dibandingkan dengan periode sama tahun 2013 sebesar 62,7%. Laba usaha perseroan, selama semester I-2014 mencapai Rp 446,32 miliar atau naik sebesar 47,4% dibandingkan periode sama tahun 2013 sebesar Rp 302,8 miliar. Pertumbuhan pendapatan selama semester I-2014 menghasilkan pertumbuhan laba bersih sebesar 42,9% menjadi Rp 403,4 miliar dibandingkan dengan Rp 282.3 miliar pada periode sama tahun lalu. Marjin laba bersih selama semester I-2014 mencapai 47,4% dibandingkan dengan 50,7% pada periode sama tahun lalu.
BMRI posted IDR9.6t (+17% YoY) net profit in 1H14, in line with our estimates.
Higher contribution from micro segment allows NIM to stay at 5.9%. NPL is estimated to stay around 2.1% by YE14, already taking into account the declining quality in Sharia subsidiary.
Maintain BUY with TP at IDR12,000 (FY15: 11.5x PER & 2.3x P/BV).
BMRI booked IDR9.6t (+17% YoY) in 1H14, in line with our FY14 estimates of IDR21.2t (+16% YoY). NIM was mainly supported by micro lending, which now contributed 52% of the bank’s IDR20t total NII, up from only 30% a year ago. Loan grew 3% YTD and is expected to accelerate to reach 16% by YE14 with corporate lending which covers 27% of total portfolio as the main driver.
Funding remained strong with CASA covering 62% of total deposits. However, with 24% YoY growth in TD (vs 11% of total deposits), CoF continued its upward trend to 3.5% in 2Q14 from a bottom of 2.6% in 2Q13. Overall, LDR is maintained around 85% in 1H4.
The key concern on BMRI is rising NPL in its subsidiary, Bank Sharia Mandiri (BSM) which mainly comes from the SME segment. The IDR3.5t NPL outstanding in BSM resulted in 2.2% consolidated NPL. BMRI has done several restructurings to bring down this total NPL below 2.1% by YE14.
What’s Our View
We maintain our BUY on BMRI with TP at IDR12,000 (FY15: 11.5x PER & 2.3x P/BV) with key risk of further deterioration in BSMNPL, which could require higher provisioning expense in the future.
LCGC (low cost green car) sales exceeds expectation on affordable pricetag and new technology that save fuel. As of 1H14, LGCG sales account for 13% of total 4W sales in Indonesia (85.6k units sales). The 1H14 sales breakdown: Toyota Agya is leading the market (37k units), Daihatsu Ayla 23.5k units, Honda Brio Satya 11.5k units, Suzuki Karimun Wagon-R 10.1k units and lastly the new comer Datsun Go+ Panca 3.4k units which was recently launched in May2014. Indo Auto Association (Gaikindo) targets LGCG car sales to reach 120k units this year. Gaikindo expects LGCG sales to continue to be strong, especially in outside Jakarta.
Kimia Farma (KAEF), selama semester I-2014, mencatatkan penjualan bersih sebesar Rp 1,9 triliun atau mengalami kenaikan sebesar 9% dibandingkan periode sama tahun lalu. Selama semester I-2014, laba kotor tumbuh sebesar 11,4% menjadi Rp 555 miliar dibandingkan Rp 498 miliar pada semester I-2013. Marjin laba kotor selama semester I-2014 mencapai 29,2% dibandingkan 28,6% selama semester I-2013. Sementara itu, selama semester I-2014, laba usaha tumbuh sebesar 66,3% menjadi Rp 98,9 miliar dibandingkan Rp 59,5 miliar pada semester I-2013. Pertumbuhan laba usaha mengakibatkan kenaikan marjin laba operasi selama semester I-2014 menjadi 5,2% dibandingkan 3,4% pada semester I-2013. Selama semester I-2014, KAEF mencatatkan kenaikan laba bersih sebesar 65% menjadi Rp 70,6 miliar dibandingkan dengan Rp 42,7 miliar pada semester I-2013.
New cigarette regulation. The government has issued Industrial Ministry regulation no 64/2014 which set the tone for investment climate in Indonesia’s cigarette industry. Going forward, new investment in cigarette industry is only allowed for small/medium enterprises which partnering with large company. This regulation has been effective since July 10 2014.
PT Semen Indonesia (SMGR) posted a very strong result on quarterly basis with 2Q14 net profit surging by 17% qoq to Rp1.3 tn while revenue up by 9% qoq to Rp6.17 tn. This has brought the 1H14 net profit grew by 9% yoy to Rp2.82 tn while revenue increased by Rp12.88 tn.
The company successfully managed its cost structure with COGS only up by 3% qoq in 2Q14 to Rp3.62 tn Vs. Rp3.5 tn in 1Q14. This also translating into lower COGS/ton in 2Q14 which down by 3.6% qoq to Rp546.8k/ton Vs. Rp566.9k/ton in 1Q14.
On selling price, SMGR showing a stellar pricing initiatives in 2Q14 with ASP rising by 4% qoq from Rp977k/ton to Rp1,013k/ton. Accumulatively, the company’s ASP in 1H14 has reached Rp981.5k/ton or up by 6.2% yoy.
As a result of cost efficiency and strong ASP growth, SMGR’s profitability improved in 2Q14 with gross margin expanded by 273bps from 43.3% in 1Q14 to 46% in 2Q14 while net margin up by 162bps to 22.7%.
On the operational side, domestic sales volume increased by 4.9% yoy in 1H14 to 12.2mn tons, outpacing the industry growth of just 4% yoy. on quarterly basis, SMGR booked a 7.2% qoq growth in 2Q14 or reaching 6.6mn tons Vs. 6.2mn tons in 1Q14.
While the 1H14 revenue achievement came in-line within our expectation (47.8% of FY14 estimate), we anticipate potential upside on our bottom line estimate as it already accounted for 51.6% of our FY14 estimate.
We currently still reviewing our forecast and recommendation for SMGR with potential upgrade given its strong 1H14 result.
In line 1H14 results
DSNG’s bottom line was skyrocketing by 220% yoy from Rp 115 bn to Rp 367 bn in 1H14 while operating income was soaring up by 119% yoy from Rp 260 bn to Rp 568 bn. The strong profits growth was attributable to a combination of robust quarterly FFB production from nucleus and plasma, higher ASP for wood products (+20% yoy), higher palm kernel oil (PKO) production (+93% yoy), and coupled with cost savings and efficiency in estates, which translate into lower COGS (-9% qoq) and operating expense (-15% qoq).
Better mills performance begets all-time high of profitability margin
On quarterly basis, CPO sales volume rose strongly by 30% qoq to 192 k MT on improvement in FFB volume in recent months. In addition, palm kernel oil (PKO),which is relatively new product of DSNG, made double digit growth by 19% qoq to 4,500 MT from 3,800 MT. These led to an even all-time high operating margin and net margin, which managed to climb to 27%, and 16.3% respectively in 2Q14. Going forward, CPO oil extraction rate (OER) relatively stable at 23.8% yield while free fatty acid (FFA) level rose to 2.76% from 2.6%, maintaining as the highest OER among plantation stocks under our coverage.
Vigorous new planting and wise age profile
Having gone through relatively lower new planting program in last quarter, 2Q14 saw a higher new planting of 1,235 ha, rose by 38% qoq from 893 ha. Going ahead, plasma new planting also went up by 33% qoq with 782 ha new planted area. Given its proven new planting activity for the last 7 years, the company exhibits a very young age profile. Recently DSNG estates comprised of a 54% young mature (4-7 years), 46% of prime mature (7-19 years) and zero for old tree. Therefore, we foresee DSNG’s estates will continue to yield sizable harvest well onwards.
Ability to deleverage remains firm
Since DSNG is financed its growth by bank loan, another commendable accomplishment was in the form of better solvability ratio ahead, which net gearing is expected to decline from 1.5x to 1.2x in 14F. It was partly driven by declining short term bank loan by 17% from Rp 769 bn to Rp 636 bn and surging profitability ratio. Debt to equity ratio 14F is expected to decline to 1.52x from 1.81x while interest coverage ratio 14F is expected to rise from 1.8x to 3.7x. However, the main concern is deteriorating global CPO price, which now is only hovering at RM 2,365/MT. This could dent profitability and reduce ability to deleverage.
Maintain BUY rating with target price Rp 3,800/sh
We maintain our TP of Rp 3,800/sh based on Discounted Cash Flow Method (DCF), which implies PER14-15F 10.7x-10.2x and EV/EBITDA 6.2x-5.9x. It also implies EV/nucleus planted 14F and EV/total planted 14F of US$12,100 and US$ 9,650. Based on level of Rp 3,150/share, our target price suggests an upside potential of 20%.
We remain upbeat on the sector and believe potential M&A activities could be catalysts. All the three largest telco players in Indonesia are planning corporate exercises with regards to their towers and we think the largest two independent tower companies under our coverage will be well positioned for any bid given their scale. We prefer SMN for its cheaper valuations and lower gearing ratios.
¨ 3G rollout remains aggressive. We believe that the continued aggressive rollout of 3G base tower stations (BTS) by Telekomunikasi Selular (Telkomsel) will continue to benefit the independent tower companies (ITCs) like Tower Bersama Infrastructure (TBI) (TBIG) and Sarana Menara Nusantara (SMN) (TOWR). This is supported by checks with the ITCs that they have been receiving significant orders for new towers from Telkomsel, which will likely continue for not only coverage purposes but capacity as well.
¨ M&A opportunities on the horizon. We think there could be a wave of potential M&A opportunities this year and in 2015 as well. This could allow ITCs to significantly expand their scale and earnings. In this respect, we think SMN is in a stronger position relative to TBI due to the former’s lower gearing position as at 1Q14. Note that all the three largest telco players in Indonesia are planning a corporate exercise with regards to their towers.
¨ Largest ITC players likely to have the upper hand. We expect the telcos to negotiate a deal with SMN and TBI – both being the largest ITCs – to sell off their towers en bloc to extract the greatest value. The smaller ITCs such as Solusi Tunas Pratama (STP) (SUPR) and Inti Bangun Sejahtera (IBST) are expected to enter the fray but lack scale in comparison with SMN and TBI. Therefore, they are unlikely to bid aggressively in our view.
¨ Headwinds still remain low. We believe risks within the tower leasing sector remains relatively low. The feedback that we have received thus far from the ITCs is that tower lease rates have been stable for them. This suggests that the smaller players are the ones facing the squeeze, possibly due to their lack of scale. Besides that, we think the possibility of the telcos joining forces to create a tower-sharing venture similar to what happened in China appears minimal, as the Indonesian ITCs have already achieved significant scale.
¨ Investment case. We maintain our OVERWEIGHT call on the sector. We still like the industry for its growth prospects that will be supported by a general recovery among the telcos due to: i) diminishing competitive risks between them, ii) their broad earnings growth recovery in 2015, and iii) better scale and improving data monetisation on their 3G networks. We prefer SMN for its lower gearing ratios.
Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) kemarin melewati perdagangan yang fluktuatif dengan rentang yang tidak terlalu lebar. Indeks pun berakhir stagnan.
Mengakhiri perdagangan, Kamis (24/7/2014), IHSG ditutup naik tipis 5,411 poin (0,11%) ke level 5.098,641. Sementara Indeks LQ45 ditutup menipis 0,644 poin (0,07%) ke level 872,699.
Wall Street berakhir datar di tengah perdagangan yang sepi. Laporan kinerja emiten yang bervariasi mampu mendorong Indeks S&P 500 kembali cetak rekor tertinggi.
Pada penutupan perdagangan Kamis waktu setempat, Indeks Dow Jones menipis 2,83 poin (0,02%) ke level 17.083,80. Indeks S&P 500 bertambah 0,97 poin (0,05%) ke level 1.987,98, hair keduanya mencektak rekor tertinggi.
Indeks Komposit Nasdaq berkurang 1,59 poin (0,04%) ke level 4.472,11. Indeks S&P 500 sempat menyentuh rekor intraday tertinggi sepanjang masa di 1.991,39.
Hari ini IHSG diperkirakan masih bisa menguat di perdagangan terakhirnya sebelum Hari Raya Idul Fitri. Namun waspada juga aksi ambil untung oleh investor domestik.
Bursa Amerika kemarin ditutup mixed diantara hasil kinerja keuangan emiten AS yang mixed dibandingkan dengan konsensus. Dow Jones -0,02%; S&P 500 +0,05%; Nasdaq -0,04%. Bursa regional juga ditutup mixed. Konflik geopolitik Ukraina dan Israel masih menjadi pusat perhatian investor. Hari ini keluar data HSBC PMI China Juli 52,0 vs konsensus 51,0. Level ini level tertinggi dalam 18 bulan terakhir. Flash PMI Zona Eropa bulan Juli 54,0 naik dari Juni 52,8.
IMF memangkas target proyeksi pertumbuhan global 2014 dari 3,7% menjadi 3,4%. Calon pengisi kabinet Jokowi-Kalla dapat dipilih oleh masyarakat melalui sistem pooling. Pergerakan IHSG hari ini dipengaruhi oleh hasil kinerja keuangan emiten. IHSG diperkirakan akan menguat. Rupiah Rp11.608.
Trading BOW: BBNI, ADRO, PTBA, INCO, MLPL, SSMS, LSIP, BHIT, SCMA.
Astra International’s (ASII) 2Q14 earnings of IDR5,088bn (+7.6% q-o-q) were in line with our estimates. Excluding a one-time gain of IDR440bn, the quarter’s earnings were flat at IDR4,648bn (-1.7% q-o-q). The higher earnings from financial services and heavy equipment were offset by weaker earnings from the auto and agribusiness. Maintain NEUTRAL and IDR8,200 TP, which implies 15.0x/13.3x FY14/15 P/Es.
¨ Earnings in line. 1H14 earnings rose 11.3% y-o-y to IDR9,815bn, making up 46%/47% of our/consensus full-year estimates. On a quarterly basis, 2Q14 earnings were higher at IDR5,088bn (+7.6% q-o-q), thanks to an IDR440bn gain arising from the acquisition of a 50% stake in Astra Aviva Life. Excluding this one-time gain, the company’s 2Q14 earnings were flat at IDR4,648bn (-1.7% q-o-q). Earnings from the financial services and heavy equipment segments rose to IDR1,497bn (+52.6% q-o-q) and IDR1,029bn (+7.3% q-o-q), but the increase was offset by lower contribution from the auto and agribusiness segments, whose earnings declined to IDR1,954bn (-4.6% q-o-q) and IDR466bn (-25.4% q-o-q).
¨ Tough quarter for auto segment. 2Q14 earnings declined 4.6% q-o-q to IDR1,954bn owing to lower 4W vehicles sales of 161,200 units (-7.0% q-o-q) as well as narrower EBIT margin, which slipped to 1.8% in 2Q14 from 2.4% in 1Q14 due to higher sales discounts. At the dealer level, the sales discount on Astra’s best selling product, Toyota Avanza, was increased to ~10% of the retail price from ~6% previously in response to rising competition in the low-end multipurpose vehicle (MPV) market.
¨ Maintain NEUTRAL. ASII’s long-term outlook may be still promising, but we see challenges in the near term. Our channel checks suggest that the company may launch a new low-end MPV or revamp the model to win back market share. In addition, we see Astra’s heavy equipment segment potentially benefitting from the pickup in infrastructure projects. We maintain our NEUTRAL call and IDR8,200 TP, which implies 15.0x/13.3x FY14/15 P/Es.
AALI 2Q14 net income of Rp688bn (+62%yoy, -22%qoq) is lower than 1Q14 mainly due to forex impact. There is forex loss of Rp139bn in 2Q14 vs forex gain of Rp166bn in 1Q14.
2Q14 normalized net income (after excluding after-tax forex impact) still grew by 4.2%qoq. The growth of 2Q14 normalized net income of 4.2%qoq is lower than the growth of 2Q14 revenue of 14.9%qoq. We contribute the lower profit growth to: 1) AALI’s refinery still running below optimal capacity. 2) over capacity in refinery’s production capacity in domestic market, which makes favorable CPO price in domestic market at the expense of profitability of refinery business.
Acquiring an oil palm company in East Kalimantan. On 15 July 2014, AALI acquired an oil palm company for acquisition cost of Rp309bn. The acquired plantation company’s fixed assets and plantation amounted to Rp369bn and bank loan amounted to Rp60bn. We consider the acquisition cost is cheap.
PT Vale Indonesia Tbk today (INCO) today announces its unaudited results for the second quarter of 2014 (2Q14), with quarterly income of US$50.0 million, the highest since 4Q11. An income of US$50.0 million is 179% higher than 1Q14 income.
PT Vale Indonesia Tbk (IDX Ticker: INCO) hari ini mengumumkan kinerja untuk triwulan kedua tahun 2014 (2T14) yang belum diaudit, dengan laba triwulanan sebesar AS$50,0 juta, tertinggi sejak 4T11. Laba sebesar AS$50,0 juta ini berarti 179% lebih tinggi dibandingkan laba di 1T14.
Summaries of the announcement are:
Ringkasan dari pengumuman tersebut adalah:
While PT Vale’s production in 2Q14 that reached 19,224 metric tons (t) slightly lower than the production in 1Q14 recorded at 19,604 t, its revenues for the respective period increased by 26% as the average realized price increased significantly.
The Company continued to realize improved cost discipline and productivity in its operation as a result of the focus on our cost reduction strategy. Our cost of revenue – excluding inventory movements – in 2Q14 increased by only 1% to US$178.6 million from US$176.7 million in 1Q14. This increase was mainly due to services and contracts.
That Garuda Indonesia has the world’s best cabin staff? In addition to the best cabin staff award, Skytrax, the UK-based airline consultancy and ranking agency, has also recently ranked Garuda as the world’s 7th best airline. After being banned from flying to the European Union between 2007 and 2009, the airline has tried to transformed itself to regain customers’ and regulators’ trust by investing heavily in it services and fleet. As a result of the enhancement, Skytrax promoted Garuda to a four-star airline in 2010 and proclaimed it as the world’s most improved airline. Further in 2012, Skytrax named Garuda as the world’s best regional airline. As part of its transformation, Garuda strived to blend Indonesia’s warm and gracious hospitality in the airline’s service.
Sumber Alfaria (AMRT), operator of Alfamart, is working with Yamazaki Baking to build bread factory in West Java. Currently, the company is in the taste testing process and plans to the bread factory to supply bread to alfamart outlets. AMRT and Yamazaki Baking has created a 50:50 JV but no financial details are disclosed. AMRT plans to add 1,200 stores this year, bringing its total stores to 9,757 by year end.
GE Global Innovation Barometer 2014: Indonesian interest in innovation is above global average. The survey is ordered by GE that appointed Edelman Berland research company to do the research survey. The survey found that 74% entrepreneurs are willing to collaborate with other companies; 40% of business executives see SME has big contribution to innovation.
TINS mencatatkan pertumbuhan laba bersih 1H14 sebesar 48,0% yoy menjadi Rp 203 miliar, namun hal itu sedikit di bawah ekspektasi kami. Hal ini merupakan andil dari depresiasi mata uang rupiah yang menguntungkan TINS karena posisinya sebagai dollar earner. Penjualan hanya tumbuh 7,7% yoy menjadi Rp 2,75 triliun dimana volume penjualannya justru merosot 11,8% yoy menjadi 9.663 ton. Dalam mata uang dollar, harga jual TINS hanya naik 2,8% yoy menjadi USD23.193/ton.
· Profitabilitas Membaik Secara Akuntansi, Namun Biaya Kas Melonjak. Meski marjin laba operasional membaik 4% dibandingkan 1H13 menjadi 13,1%, namun biaya kas rata-rata TINS justru mengalami lonjakan yang sangat signifikan sebesar 24,2% yoy menjadi USD21.475/ton. Lonjakan signifikan terjadi pada biaya bahan baku pada 2Q14 sebesar Rp 959 miliar, naik 2x lipat lebih secara qoq. Sementara membaiknya marjin laba operasional terbantu oleh penyesuaian nilai persediaan sebesar minus Rp 656 miliar dibandingkan dengan posisi 1Q13 sebesar Rp 68 miliar. Hal ini karena kebijakan TINS untuk melakukan restocking persediaan timah baik dalam bentuk barang jadi ataupun barang setengah jadi sehingga nilai persediaan membengkak dan biaya atas penambahan persediaan tersebut “dibatalkan” pengakuannya dalam laporan keuangan. Biaya-biaya ini kelak akan kembali diakui sebagai beban ketika persediaan tersebut dijual.
· Penjualan Diperkirakan Meningkatkan Drastis Pada 1H14. Hingga 1H14, penjualan TINS baru mencapai 9.663 ton atau sekitar 37% dari target. Dengan adanya strategi pengumpulan persediaan, diharapkan TINS dapat menjual timah sekitar 2700 ton setiap bulannya pada 2H14. Hingga Juni 2014, jumlah persediaan logam timah dan barang dalam proses masing-masing mencapai 4.473 ton dan 8.814 ton, lebih banyak dibandingkan dengan posisi Juni 2013 sebesar 1.293 ton dan 4.580 ton.
· Rekomendasi: NEUTRAL. Kami melihat harga saham TINS sudah mencerminkan potensi dan resiko yang ada. Melihat stagnasi harga timah yang kemungkinan masih berlangsung hingga 1H15, kami tetap bertahan dengan target harga Rp1.500/saham untuk TINS yang berimplikasi pada PER-15 15,1x dan PBV-15 2,0x. Kami pun menurunkan rekomendasi saham ini menjadi NEUTRAL terkait dengan terbatasnya potensi keuntungan.
Pakuwon Jati (PWON) telah merilis laporan keuangan (belum audit) dengan penjualan pada semester I-2014 sebesar Rp1,9 triliun, naik 16% dibandingkan dengan pendapatan pada semester I-2013 sebesar Rp1,6 triliun. Laba kotor pada semester I-2014 tercatat sebesar Rp1,16 triliun, meningkat 23% dibandingkan periode yang sama tahun sebelumnya sebesar Rp945 miliar. Marjin laba kotor perseroan pada semester I-2014 naik menjadi 98,3% dari 58,2% pada semester I-2013. Sementara itu, laba sebelum pajak perseroan tumbuh 34% menjadi Rp1,04 triliun pada semester I-2014 dari Rp774 miliar pada semester I-2013. Laba bersih perseroan tercatat sebesar Rp906 miliar, meningkat 36% dibandingkan dengan laba bersih tahun sebelumnya sebesar Rp666 miliar. Marjin laba bersih perseroan naik tipis menjadi 48,2% pada semester I-2014 dari 41% pada semester I-2013.
U.S. stocks closed little changed on Thursday, with the S&P 500 at another record, as investors considered mostly upbeat earnings from companies including Ford Motor and Facebook and mixed economic reports.
Dow………17084 -2.8 -0.02%
Nasdaq……4472 -1.6 -0.04%
S&P 500…..1988 +1.0 +0.05%
FTSE……….6822 +23.3 +0.34%
DAX………..9794 +40.5 +0.42%
CAC………..4411 +34.3 +0.78%
Nikkei……15285 -44.1 -0.29%
Shanghai…2105 +26.6 +1.28%
ST Times…3354 +13.2 +0.39%
VIX………..11.84 -0.72 -5.88%
USD Index…80.87 +0.04 +0.05%
Como Indx.298.19 -0.58 -0.19%
DJUSCL……128.64 +0.60 +0.47%
(Dow Jones US Coal Index)
Jisdor…… 11531 +33 +0.29%
ARMS Plc….71.25 +0 +0%
EIDO……… 29.21 -0.08 -0.27%
EEM………. 44.96 +0.20 +0.45%
Oil…………101.99 -1.20 -1.16%
Gold ……1293.91 -11.2 -0.86%
Timah……22365 +125 +0.56% Nickel……19130 +150 +0.79%
Coal……….68.15 -1.44 -2.07%
CPO…….2307RM +23 +1.01%
Corn………369.50 -1.25 -0.34%
SoybeanOil.36.35 +0 +0%
Wheat…….528.75 -2.00 -0.39%
Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLKM) mencatatkan pendapatan Rp 43,54 triliun selama semester I-2014, atau naik sebesar 8,4% dibandingkan periode sama tahun 2013. Laba usaha selama semester I-2014 mengalami kenaikan sebesar 2,5% mencapai Rp 14,2 triliun. Marjin laba operasi pada semester I-2014 turun menjadi 32,6% dibandingkan 34,5% pada semester I-2013. Laba bersih TLKM selama semester I-2014 mengalami kenaikan sebesar 4% menjadi Rp 7,4 triliun dibandingkan dengan Rp 7,1% pada semester I-2013. Di lain pihak, EBITDA selama semester I-2014 mengalami kenaikan sebesar 9,1% menjadi Rp 22,3 triliun dibandingkan dengan semester I-2013. Marjin EBITDA selama semester I-2014 mencapai 51,3% atau sedikit lebih tinggi dibandingkan dengan marjin EBITDA selama semester I-2013 sebesar 51%. Rasio utang bersih terhadap modal TLKM selama pada akhir Juni 2014 turun menjadi 2,3% dibandingkan pada posisi 8,5% pada akhir Juni 2013. Total utang per akhir Juni 2014 mncapai Rp 18,9 triliun atau naik sebesar 14,3% dibanidngkan dengan posisi akhir Juni 2013 sebesar Rp 16,6 triliun. Per Juni 2014, utang dalam mata uang rupiah mencapai Rp 15,14 triliun, sedangkan utang dalam mata uang dolar Amerika Serikat sebesar Rp 2,8 triliun, dan dalan mata uang Jepang Rp 0,95 triliun.
State-owned tin miner TINS posted an almost 50 percent increase in profit in the first half of the year on the back of higher production efficiency.
Net income at Bangka-based Timah jumped 48 percent to Rp 202.75 billion ($17.6 million) in the January-June period, compared to Rp 137 billion in the first six months of 2013, according to a statement to the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) on Wednesday. Its revenue rose 7 percent to Rp 2.75 trillion.
“Since the implementation of the Ministry of Trade Law no. 32 in 2013, the company’s performance has continually improved,” the company said in the statement, referring to the government’s one-door trading policy through the Indonesia Commodity Derivatives Exchange. The policy — which was implemented in September last year — was meant to boost tin prices globally.
Timah produced a total of 14,352 metric tons of tin ore up until June this year, a 41 percent growth from the same period last year, boosted by its land-based mines which surged to 4,823 tons from 1,463 tons. Tin ore production at Timah’s sea mines also grew 9.2 percent to 9,528 tons.
Growth in its tin ore production bolstered Timah’s refined tin output to 10,808 million tons, up 12 percent from 2013. Still, the miner’s sales volume of refined tin declined 12 percent to 9,663 million tons as prices rose from $22,565 to $23,193 per million tons as of June.
Going forward, Timah said it plans to continue improving operational efficiencies to keep its profit afloat.
“We will work to become more efficient in every aspect, including shifting from fossil fuel to gas, which is more cost-efficient,” Agung said in the statement.
Timah recently announced that it has trimmed its capital expenditure this year by 35 percent to Rp 840 billion, compared to its original target of Rp 1.3 trillion.
The listed miner plans to start producing tin oxide next year, setting aside up to Rp 20 billion to reach an output capacity of 50 kilograms daily.
Tin oxide, sold at a higher price than elemental tin, can be combined with other elements to produce flat screen monitors.
Shares of Timah rose 0.8 percent to Rp 1,345 on the IDX on Wednesday.
Bank Mandiri (BMRI)’s strong insurance income and recoveries boosted 2Q14 earnings, where net interest income growth was muted. Provisions rose on a decline in asset quality, which we believe could pose a key risk in the next two quarters as special mention loans show some persistent growth. We roll over our valuation to FY15 and lift our TP to IDR11,800 (from IDR11,000). Maintain BUY
¨ Flattish NIM, credit costs up. Bank Mandiri generated IDR4.66trn of earnings in 2Q14 (-5% q-o-q, 17% y-o-y), brining its 1H14 earnings to IDR9.58trn (-3% h-o-h, 16% y-o-y). This represents 49% and 47% of our and consensus’ full-year earnings estimates respectively. Net interest margin (NIM) was flattish sequentially at the 5.8% level as net interest income only grew 2% q-o-q. Its non-interest income growth of 8% q-o-q was driven by strong insurance income and recoveries. Credit costs dented earnings as provisions grew 33% q-o-q and 14% y-o-y, driven by a decline in asset quality.
¨ Moderate growth. Loans growth slowed down to 13% y-o-y – its weakest annual growth rate since 3Q07 – on a decline in corporate and syariah loans. Deposits grew modestly at 5% q-o-q and 11% y-o-y, with time deposit (TD) growth of 7% q-o-q and 15% y-o-y outpacing current and savings account (CASA) growth of 3% and 8% respectively. Cost of funds (CoF) rose ~30bps q-o-q, but some 20bps increase in yields protected NIM in 2Q14. The loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR) was relatively unchanged at 87%.
¨ Declining asset quality. The bank’s gross non-performing loans (NPL) ratio inched up to 2.2% (4Q13: 1.9%; 1Q14: 2.1%) as absolute NPLs rose 12% q-o-q and 34% y-o-y, driven by consumer and syariah NPLs. The 12% q-o-q growth (27% y-o-y) in special mention loans suggests that NPLs may further weaken in the near future, while the loan loss coverage ratio declined to 160%, the lowest since 3Q11.
¨ Maintain BUY. We revise our Gordon Growth Model (GGM)-derived TP (COE: 14.4%, growth: 10%, ROE: 20.5%) higher to IDR11,800 (from IDR11,000), based on FY15 2.3x P/BV or 12.2x P/E. Risks to our estimates include worsening asset quality and a NIM contraction.
COWL got a loan from PT Bank Panin Indonesia Tbk worth Rp 230bn. The funds will be used for working capital and operational funding development of The Lexington Residence in Pasanggrahan Bintaro.
BBCA recorded Rp7.85tr (+24% y-y ) net profit in 1H14, which is in line with our and consensus forecasts. Strong liquidity (liquid assets/total assets at 27% in June, 25% in March) and asset quality remain as the bank’s focus under the tight monetary condition.
Loan growth slowed down to 15% y-y while deposits grew 11% y-y in June 2014. This resulted in lower LDR of 76% in June from 78% in March. Of the loans, BBCA saw the corporate segment increased 16% y-y, commercial & SME +15% y-y while consumer loans 13% y-y. The management is being cautious on consumer lending given the steep increase in housing prices while competition in car financing is getting fiercer, especially those from the companies that are backed by the automotive principals. Of the consumer loans, mortgages grew only 9% y-y, vehicle loans +17% and credit cards +24% y-y.
Net interest margin declined to 6.8% in 2Q14 from 6.9% in 1Q14. BBCA adjusted lending rates during 4Q13-1Q14 but did not continue in 2Q14 while they increased time deposits rates up to 9.25% in May 2014. The good thing is the portion of time deposits is still at 23% of total deposits, hence despite the significant increase in T/D rates the higher lending rates could compensate the increase in cost of funds. NIM is likely to remain at >6.5% in 2H14 given the less pressure in cost of funds and potential lending rates adjustment.
NPL inched up from 0.4% in March to 0.5% in June with coverage ratio of 367%. Most of the new NPL formation came from the commercial & SME segment, which increased to 0.7% in June from 0.6% in March. The management puts a lot of attention on the consumer loans asset quality, with average NPL of 0.7%, especially in 2-wheeler financing, whose NPL increased to 3.5% from 1.1% a year ago. We estimate the bank wrote off some Rp187bn in 2Q14, up from Rp121bn in 1Q14.
All in all, this good results led to improvement in ROE to 23.3% in 1H14 from 22.9% in 1H13. The stock is trading at 3.8x P/BV 2014 and we maintain our Neutral call on the counter with TP of Rp11,000.
TPIA ensured the asset its two subsidiaries in part to obtain a working capital loan amounting to USD 533mn. Both subsidiaries are PT Styrindo Mono Indonesia and PT Petrochemical Butadine Indonesia.
In-line operating profit and better than expected NPAT. BSDE reported operating profit of Rp1.1tn in 1H14, in line with our expectation and consensus (46% and 45% of FY14F). Excluding the one time JV land sale of Rp1.3tn in 1H13, BSDE’s revenue actually grew by 52% YoY. BSDE’s operating margin in 1H14 of 47% is in-line with our expectation. In 1H14 BSDE’ reported NPAT of Rp2.6tn, which is above our expectation and consensus (120% and 123% of FY14F). Better than expected NPAT is due to Rp1.6tn of unrealized gain from stock investment (due to additional acquisition of PLIN’s shares). Excluding the one-time unrealized gain, BSDE’s 1H14 is 46% of ours and consensus, in line with expectation.
Solid balance sheet. Post the acquisition of PLIN’s shares (worth Rp2.2tn), BSDE remains in net cash position as of 1H14. Operating cashflow for BSDE remains positive in 1H14 and the company was reducing its land purchase in 1H14.
Firm pipeline in 2H14. BSDE’s new launches in 2H14 would be its Manado residential project and potentially high-rise apartment in Rasuna Epicentrum. As of 1H14, BSDE already meet around 45% of its FY14F marketing sales target. We think the company should be able to meet its target on the back of new and existing launches. We maintain our Buy rating on BSDE with PT of Rp2,000.
The policy is part of the effort to save subsidized fuel consumption which quota is locked at 46mn kl. In addition, the government will not supply subsidized fuel in gas stations along toll road.