$1,269 marks the spot for gold futures this morning

$1,269 marks the spot for gold futures this morning. Gold is getting walloped to start the week. It’s down a cool $18 in early trading…

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September 2, 2014

Stocks Nudge Higher After Holiday Weekend

The U.S. equity markets are moving slightly to the upside in early action, returning from the extended Labor Day weekend, ahead of reports on domestic manufacturing activity. Meanwhile traders are digesting some lackluster business activity reports out of Europe and China over the weekend, trying to assess the impact on global monetary policy. Treasuries are solidly lower ahead of the domestic data, along with gold and crude oil prices, while the U.S. dollar is trading higher. In equity news, Dollar General Corp revised its all-cash offer to acquire Family Dollar Stores to $80.00 per share, from $78.50 a share. Overseas, Asian stocks finished mostly higher, led by Japanese and mainland Chinese markets, while European equities are trading modestly to the upside in afternoon action on lingering stimulus hopes from the European Central Bank.

September 2, 2014

2nd SESSION JCI on 02.09.2014

IHSG @5201.59 (+23.968pts) (+0.463%)(H: 5201.95 ; L: 5179.33)Value: 4.660 T (NG 966 B )….!!!Volume: 72.117 M Lot (NG 36.105 M Lot)Foreign Nett Sell 230.78 B**Incl.Crossing:sIAP @255 ~ 285.16 B (D vs F) **VIVA @322 ~ 106.46 B (D vs D)Foreign Value 36.2%*BUY (Regular)F Buy 1364.4 BD Buy 2329.3 B*SELL (Regular)F Sell 1260.9 BD Sell 2432.7 BUSD/IDR:……!!!JISDOR: 11710/11734 NDF:        11715/11743JCI for tomorrow:support: 5177, 5155Resist:    5211, 52256 MARKET DRIVEN BY SECTORTRADE (+0.49%) (1.14 T )MANUFACT (+0.46%) (970.26 B )FINANCE (+0.50%) (785.78 B )PROPERTY (+0.01%) (596.58 B )INFRA.  (+0.64%) (585.25 B )MINING (-0.03%) (302.67 B )6 TOP GAINERsLAPD. @78.    (+34.48%)SRAJ @280. (+17.15%)ERAA @1270(+10.92%)DOID.  @226. (+10.78%)IATA.  @97.    (+10.23%)BAYU @1240 (+8.77%)6 TOP LOSERsINPP.   @223 (-23.37%)PGLI.   @110.  (-14.73%)NELY. @143.  (-11.73%)WAPO @62.  (-11.43%)PNSE.  @480. (-11.11%)GEMS. @1700 (-8.11%)7 NETT BUY STOCKs BY FOREIGNERSEXCL @6330 (46.83 B )ASII.   @7688 (36.18 B )ERAA@1225 (35.69 B )BBCA @11740 (32.68 B )INCO. @4213.   (32.63 B )ICBP.  @10862 (25.57 B )BBNI.  @5521.   (22.95 B )7 NETT SELL STOCKs BY FOREIGNERSTLKM. @2694 (55.17 B )SMGR @16282 (31.74 B )BBTN.  @1135. (24.18 B )LPKR.  @1057 (19.22 B )LSIP.    @1870 (18.47 B )CTRA @1168. (12.72 B )WSKT @907. (9.08 B )8 MOST ACTIVE STOCKs BY VALUEMPPA. @3120.  (+1.30%)TLKM @2700.  (-0.37%)BMRI.  @10500 (0.00%)BBRI.   @11100. (+0.45%)EXCL.  @6350. (+5.83%)SMGR @16275(+0.15%)SSMS @1405.  (+4.85%)BBNI.    @5525 (+2.79%)8 MOST ACTIVE STOCKs BY VOLUMEBABP. @113.   (1.809.394 lot)DOID.  @226 (1.499.690 lot)BUMI.  @190. (1.426.146 lot)META @207 (1.384.450 lot)PWON@441 (1.188.126 lot)ENRG. @90.  (1.091.735 lot)SRIL.   @153 (979.894 lot)TARA @301 (935.721 lot)”…Have a blessed Tuesday evening….”

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September 2, 2014

Banking – banks cut their growth expectations

Sektor perbankan: Bank-bank mulai memangkas prediksi pertumbuhan. Berdasarkan reivisi rencana bisnis bank (RBB) yang sudah dilaporkan kepada OJK, perbankan mulai menurunkan ekspektasi pertumbuhan tahun ini dari sisi aset, serta pertumbuhan kredit dan simpanan.

Secara keseluruhan, total aset diprediksi tumbuh 13,44%, lebih rendah daripada prediksi awal 16,06%. Total kredit saat ini diprediksi tumbuh 16,47%, turun dari 17,35% sedangkan total simpanan diprediksi tumbuh 13,92% dari prediksi awal 18,32%.

Penurunan terbesar dialami oleh bank besar (BUKU 4, dengan modal >Rp30 triliun) dengan prediksi pertumbuhan simpanan 13,68%, turun dari sebelumnya 18,45%.

Di sisi lain, pertumbuhan kredit bank BUKU 1 (bermodal

Comment: total pertumbuhan kredit sebesar 16,47% yang sejalan dengan prediksi kami 16,3% untuk 2014 karena perbankan akan melambat karena tingginya rasio kredit terhadap simpanan (LDR) dan pertumbuhan ekonomi yang melambat.

Kami memprediksi simpanan perbankan akan tumbuh 15,8% yang lebih tinggi dari revisi prediksi pertumbuhan 13,92% tetapi di bawah prediksi sebelumnya 18,32%. Kami mengantisipasi pencairan anggaran pemerintah pusat, kenaikan investasi asing langsung (FDI) dan investasi portofolio untuk mendongkrak simpanan pada kuartal terakhir tahun ini.

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September 2, 2014

1st SESSION JCI on 02.09.2014

IHSG @5192.07 (+14.447pts) (+0.279%)
(H: 5201.85 ; L: 5179.33)
Value: 1.990 T (NG 287 B )…!!!
Volume: 31.848 M Lot (NG 12.963 M Lot)
Foreign Nett Buy 28.52 B
Foreign Value 30.4%
Incl.Crossing:
VIVA @322 ~ 106.25 B (D vs D)

*BUY (Regular)
F Buy 528.2 B
D Buy 1173.9 B
*SELL (Regular)
F Sell 481.4 B
D Sell 1218.9 B

USD/IDR:……!!!
JISDOR: 11710/11734
NDF:        11715/11735

JCI for today:
Support: 5165, 5140
Resist:    5200, 5210

6 MARKET DRIVE BY SECTOR
TRADE.  (+0.52%) (605.16 B )
FINANCE (+0.43%) (346.29 B )
PROPERTY(+0.07%) (299.47 B )
INFRA.    (+0.27%) (238.54 B )
MANUFACT (+0.09%) (235.67 B )
AGRI.     (+1.51%) (179.38 B )

7 NETT BUY STOCKS BY FOREIGNERS
EXCL @6265. (32.68 B )
BBNI.   @5512.  (17.57 B )
BBCA. @11752 (15.26 B )
BBRI.   @11105 (14.77 B )
ERAA @1192.   (14.23 B )
BMRI.  @10525 (10.52 B )
ICBP.   @10853 (10.45 B )

7 NETT SELL STOCKs BY FOREIGNERS
SSMS @1365 (21.36 B )
SMGR @16255 (13.35 B )
TLKM @2696 (8.91 B )
LSIP.   @1871 (8.87 B )
BBTN @1131.  (6.65 B )
BSDE @1622 (6.05 B )
LPKR @1062 (5.23 B )

8 MOST ACTIVE STOCKs BY VALUE
MPPA @3100 (+0.65%)
SSMS @1410 (+5.22%)
BBNI.   @5500 (+2.33%)
EXCL. @6425 (+7.08%)
BBRI.  @11100 (+0.45%)
TLKM @2690 (-0.74%)
BBTN. @1135.   (+2.71%)
BBCA. @11750 (+0.43%)

8 MOST ACTIVE STOCKs BY VOLUME
BABP.  @114.  (1.409.971 lot)
BUMI.   @191.  (1.043.500 lot)
META. @207 (1.000.387 lot)
PWON @440 (607.484 lot)
SUGI.   @417. (590.772 lot)
SRIL.    @155. (558.243 lot)
TARA. @301. (551.006 lot)
DNAR.  @273 (513.960 lot)

“…Have a nice Lunch….”

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September 2, 2014

Jokowi plans to build 2 new refineries

Presiden terpilih baru, Joko Widodo, berencana membangun dua pabrik pengolahan minyak baru dengan kapasitas 300.000 – 500.000 barrel per hari di kawasan Timur Indonesia. Keduanya dibutuhkan untuk menurunkan tingginya kebutuhan impor (berdasarkan Bisnis Indonesia, defisit BBM domestik mencapai 608.000 barrel per hari).

Saat ini, pembangunan pabrik pengolahan minyak bukanlah hal baru karena sudah masuk dalam program pemerintah saat ini. Meskipun demikian, rencana itu belum direalisasikan karena masalah teknis, berdasarkan keterangan anggota DPR Effendi Simbolon.

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September 2, 2014

Train stations full of modern stores, lack local flavor

Train stations full of modern stores, lack local flavor. State-owned railway operator KAI attempted to improve its service and maximize company income, the company has evicted small vendors from stations and replaced them with convenience stores and chain restaurants. While many passengers enjoy the now clean, spacious and peaceful stations, some feel that the stations have lost their local flavor. Evicted street vendors have filed a lawsuit against KAI demanding Rp141.5bn (US$12mn) in compensation.

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September 2, 2014

Indonesia Consumer (2015 outlook)

Key highlights from our sector note:

  • Most staple producers experienced slower top-line growth in 2Q14 due to weaker volume growth post Asp adjustment in March/April this year. We however see that purchasing power remains relatively strong despite aggressive price adjustment. Though election spending impact seems muted for companies under our coverage, it seems to partly supporting overall private consumption growth which still pretty resilient up to 1H14 at 5.6% level
  • Margin compression in the range of 100-200bps YoY in 2Q14 is inevitable for both staple and retail companies on the back of Rupiah depreciation as well as labour/rental costs pressure for retail sector. Given tougher competitive environment, staple companies need longer time to pass on their cost pressure to consumers. Similar thing happens in retail sector as cannibalization impact leads to single-digit Sssg
  • We have made changes to earnings for 9 of the 10 consumer companies under our coverage following 2Q14 result – see figure 11 and 12 in our report for details
  • Stable Rupiah, if not appreciates (our economist assume Rp11,000/US$ by YE 2015) is positive for staple companies with US$ cost exposure. This, coupled with stable raw material prices, should translate to margin expansion in 2015. Imported retailers should also benefit in the midst of strengthening Rupiah environment.
  • We expect minor price adjustment as we see less cost pressure in 2015, but still volume growth might be at risk given potential fuel price increase. We continue to see aggressive store expansion as major growth driver in retail sector, while Sssg might still be at single-digit level given cannibalization impact
  • We roll forward targets to mid-2015 based on a combination of PE multiple target, DCF, and SOTP valuation. We upgrade GGRM/ICBP to BUY, MAPI to U/PF, and downgrade MYOR to U/PF. We like companies with pricing power and high US$-cost exposure. Top picks: GGRM, ICBP, ACES
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September 2, 2014

Indonesia Economy: Indonesia’s inflation, trade updates

August CPI eased as expected
§ 0.47% m-m August CPI on price normalization post Lebaran: Relatively in line with our estimate but slightly higher than market expectations, the August Consumer Price Index (CPI) declined to 0.47% m-m (July: 0.93%) mainly supported by lower prices of staple foods, clothings, health services as well as transportation costs (exhibit 3) post the Lebaran festivities. The m-m level translates to a y-y level of 3.99% (29-month low), down from July’s level of 4.53%. Additionally, we also note that the August CPI reached 3.42% ytd (exhibit 2).

§ Core CPI further decelerated to 4.47% y-y: In line with our expectation, August core inflation slowed to 4.47% y-y (July: 4.64%), on the back of lower inter-city transport tariffs and mobile phone prices.

Expected higher inflationary pressure ahead on price shocks
Despite the relatively benign CPI currently, we expect inflationary pressure to escalate ahead due to adjustment on administered prices as follows: (1) Since the new government would have limited fiscal space to accommodate its own programs, we expect the new administration to raise subsidized fuel prices in 4Q14 to ease the fiscal pressure and provide greater flexibility. Assuming both regular gasoline and diesel prices are raised by IDR2,000/ltr, we believe the 2014 CPI will increase to around 9.9% y-y, up 4%-pt from our base of 5.9%. (2) The outgoing government has proposed a lower electricity subsidy to IDR72.4tn (-30.3%) in the 2015 state budget, suggesting that there will be higher electricity tariffs ahead. No further details have been disclosed thus far. The 2015 state budget is still being discussed in the parliament. (3) The government has approved Pertamina’s (state-owned oil company) plan to raise the 12kg Liquid Petroleum Gas (LPG) price. However, details on the tariff hike and timing have not been decided. If Pertamina were to raise the 12 kg LPG price by 14.4%, we expect the CPI to increase by 0.14%.

July’s trade surplus of USD124m: Much better than expectations
§ July’s imports contracted 10.5% m-m and 19.3% y-y: Much lower than our and the street’s estimates, July’s imports contracted 10.5% m-m (-19.3% y-y) to USD14.1bn (exhibit 2) mainly due to slower business activities during the Lebaran holiday. Additionally, 7M14 imports reached USD104bn, down 7.0% y-y.
§ Exports reduced by 8% m-m and 6% y-y: Also beyond our and consensus expectations, July’s exports decreased to USD14.2bn, -8% m-m (-6% y-y), due to lower offshore demand for domestic electrical machinery, rubber and jewelries. Moreover, July’s overall exports brought the 7M14 figure to USD103bn, down 3.0% y-y on relatively mixed economic recoveries across the globe.
§ July and 7M14 external trade deficits: Despite a slight surplus of USD124mn in July, which was better than our and market predictions, the 7M14 external trade balance still booked a deficit of USD1bn, slightly lower than the 1H14 level of USD1.1bn (exhibit 5).

September 2, 2014

PGAS 2Q14 results in-line

Revenue: +13% YoY, +2% QoQ (49% 14CL)
Ebit: +23% YoY, +22% QoQ (56% 14CL)
Core Npat: +14% YoY, +11% QoQ (52% 14CL)

· PGAS reported 1H14 financials over the weekend. A limited audit review was undertaken as the company finalised a 5-year US$650m syndicated debt facility recently.

· The company’s distribution volumes were 856mmscfd in 2Q14 (866mmscfd in 1H14), tracking in line with our full year 860mmscfd estimate. This was slightly lower than 1Q14 (876mmscfd) but in line with company guidance.

· Distribution margins increased 1% QoQ to US$3.54/mmbtu but are still tracking below our full year estimate. We expect a 3Q14 or 4Q14 positive impact from a one-off amortization of the ConocoPhilips US$26.5m advance (as gas is expensed at the lower historic

· Ebit rose faster (+23%) than gross profit (+15%) YoY due to lower overheads. Dist and transport and G&A expenses were a combined 14% of sales vs 16% in 2Q13 (refer charts below).

· Reported NPAT was down YoY by 10% in 2Q14 owing to a strong FX gain of US$25m in 2Q13 vs –US$11m loss in 2Q14. PGAS’ JPY debt is subject to revaluations which affect this. For this reason, we prefer to focus on Core Npat which excludes these items and captures the underlying business better. Core Npat was up 14% YoY and 11% YoY, driven by the stronger Ebit result.

· During 2H14, PGAS is commissioning the Lampung LNG regasification terminal, expected to contribute in 2015. As we highlighted in our last note, sanctioning of several other gas projects that could affect distribution supply (notably the ConocoPhillips Corridor Phase 3 expansion) are positive catalysts.

· The stock is trading on 16.2x 15CL and 14.6x 16CL P/E. We have 17% total 12-mth shareholder return in the stock and it is one of CLSA Indonesia’s conviction picks on energy and infrastructure thematics.

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September 2, 2014

Panin Sekuritas Research – 2 September 2014

Bursa Amerika kemarin tutup menyusul libur labor’s day. Sementara bursa Asia pagi ini dibuka menguat menyusul spekulasi pemerintah China akan mempercepat stimulus setelah pertumbuhan yang melambat  pada data manufaktur negaara tersebut. Meski masih berada diatas level 50 (indikasi ekspansi), akan tetapi PMI China tercatat hanya sebesar 51.1 atau lebih rendah dibandingkan konsensus 51.2. Melambatnya data manufaktur ini merupakan imbas dari penurunan pasar property di China. Hal ini tentu menambah tekanan terhadap pemerintah yang sebelumnya menargetkan pertumbuhan 7,5%. PM China, Li Keqiang sebelumnya telah menargetkan stimulus pada beberapa area ekonomi. Sementara dari dalam negeri, BPS merilis beberapa data makro ekonomi bulanan antara lain Inflasi Agustus +0.47% mom; +3.99% yoy. (vs konsensus 0.42% mom, +4.01% yoy). Inflasi inti Agustus 4.47% yoy vs konsensus 4.08% yoy. Exports -6.03% yoy vs cons +2% yoy. Data neraca dagang Juli surplus USD124juta, ekspor -6.03% yoy, impor -19.31% yoy.  Data ini lebih baik dari ekspektasi konsensus. Kemarin IHSG mengalami naik +0,79% menyusul rebound setelah sebelumnya mengalami penurunan pada hari Jumat akibat penyesuaian bobot dari MSCI. Hari ini kami proyeksikan IHSG masih akan bergerak menguat melanjutkan rebound yang terjadi kemarin. Kisaran support-resistance indeks pada 5.136-5.199. Trading Buy : BWPT, PTPP, WIKA, WSKT, RALS, ICBP, AKRA, ISAT.

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September 2, 2014

Berita Saham 02 09 14

SRIL: Penjualan bersih H1’14 naik 52% menjadi Rp3.26 triliun vs penjualan H1’13 sebesar Rp2.1 triliun. Laba bersih H1’14 turun 24% menjadi Rp138.7 miliar vs laba bersih H1’13 sebesar Rp182.77 miliar.

BWPT: Rajawali Corpora melalui dua perusahaan dengan tujuan khususnya (special purposes vehicle/SPV) yaitu Matacuna Group dan Pegasus CP One, telah menguasai 21.55% saham Perseroan.

CNKO telah mengeluarkan dana sebesar Rp207.31 miliar untuk membangun proyek pembangkit listrik tenaga uap (PLTU) di Rengat dan Tembi Lahan, Riau.

WSKT melalui anak usaha PT Waskita Toll Road siap mengucurkan dana sebesar Rp3 triliun untuk membangun jalan tol Legundi-Bunder sepanjang 30 km.

Ekonomi RI: Indeks manajer pembelian (purchasing manager index/PMI) Indonesia pada bulan Agustus 2014 turun ke level 49.5 atau merupakan level terendah dalan setahun terakhir. PMI dibawah level 50 mengindikasikan aktifitas manufaktur RI mengalami kontraksi.

EXCL telah menuntaskan penjualan sebanyak 231.1 juta saham (2.7%) hasil dari program buy back saham dengan nilai transaksi sebesar Rp1.31 triliun atau Rp5,708 per saham.

ENRG berencana mengakuisisi perusahaan disektor migas pada tahun 2014 untuk memperkuat bisnis pertambangan migas.

KBRI: Anak usaha Perseroan, PT Kertas Basuki Rahmat mendapatkan pinjaman fasilitas pinjaman sindikasi bank sebesar US$70 juta.

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September 2, 2014

COAL : Indonesia Kembangkan Industri Petrokimia Berbasis Batu Bara

Indonesia berencana mengembangkan industri petrokimia berbasis batu bara untuk memasok bahan baku plastik di dalam negeri. Nilai investasi pengembangan industri ini ditaksir mencapai US$ 1,7 miliar atau sebesar Ro19,89 triliun.

Wakil Ketua Asosiasi Industri Aromatik Olefin dan Plastik (Inaplast), Budi Susanto Sadiman mengatakan rencana mengembangkan industri petrokimia berawal dari minimnya pasokan bahan baku plastik di dalam negeri karena terbatasnya kilang minyak yang memproduksi nafta. Padahal, nafta tersebut adalah bahan baku utama yang akan diubah menjadi propilen dan etilen, dimana dua produk tersebut kemudian akan diubah menjadi polimer plastik.

�Kalau kita menunggu pembangunan kilang-kilang minyak baru, harus sampai berapa lama? Lagi pula, pembangunan kilang minyak itu adalah domainnya pertamina, jadi kita tidak bisa ikut intervensi. Untuk itu, kita akan coba kembangkan industri bahan baku berbasis batubara. Ini bisa lebih cepat,� jelas Budi.

Proyek ini merupakan pengembangan dari riset unggulan nasional. Yang diprakarsai oleh Kementerian Perindustrian, Kementerian Riset dan Teknologi, serta swasta nasional. �Kita sudah punya masterplan-nya, dan diharapkan pada 2020 teknologinya sudah siap,� ungkapnya.

Budi menjelaskan, melalui proyek ini nantinya batu bara berkalori rendah diubah menjadi gas, kemudian diproses untuk menghasilkan sintetis gas. Dari sintetis gas kemudian diubah menjadi amonia dan pupuk urea. Selanjutnya, amonia akan diubah menjadi metanol untuk kemudian diubah lagi menjadi propilen.

(Tambang online)

———————-

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September 2, 2014

PGAS: Inline 1H14 operating profit

Laba operasional PGAS pada semester I/2014 masih sejalan dengan prediksi Mandiri Sekuritas (49,2% dari target tahunan) dan konsensus (47,7% dari target tahunan).

Laba operasional yang lebih tinggi pada semester I/2014 itu didorong oleh bisnis hulu (lifting migas dan stripping LPG). Kami masih menetapkan rekomendasi BUY untuk PGAS karena perseroan akan menjadi pihak yang diuntungkan dari visi enegri dari Jokowi.

***

Laba bersih inti semester I/2014 (di luar valas dan derivatif) sejalan dengan prediksi Mandiri Sekuritas (47% dari target tahun ini) dan konsensus (47,7% dari prediksi tahun ini). Laba operasional semester I/2014 sejalan dengan prediksi Mandiri Sekuritas dan konsensus. Laba operasional PGAS di semester I/2014 dibukukan US$518 juta (+6,4% YoY, +21,5% QoQ) terutama karena kenaikan volume distribusi gas dan kontribusi bisnis hulunya.

Higher gas distribution volume. Laba kotor untuk distribusi mulai stabil di level US$3,5/MMBTU. PGAS membukukan volume distribusi gas pada kuartal II/2014 sebesar 856 MMSCFD (+4,5% YoY, -2,3% QoQ) karena pengiriman suplai dari Sumatra Selatan telah meningkat.

Higher contribution from upstream business to revenue and operating profit. Bisnis hulu berkontribusi US$152 juta pada semester I/2014 (+100% YoY, +25,8% QoQ) (sekitar 8,9% dari pendapatan terkonsolidasi) dari lifting migas dan stripping LPG. Sementara itu, laba operasional dari bisnis hulu tumbuh 738% QoQ dari US$7 juta pada kuartal I/2014 dari US$60 juta pada kuartal II/2014.

Pendorong utama dari bisnis hulu PGAS adalah melalui naka usahanya yang bernama Saka, setelah mengakuisisi 75% porsi partisipasi di blok Ujung Pangkah sejak Januari 2014. Bisnis hulu dapat bekontrubusi lebih besar pada 2015 karena blok Ketapang dan Bangkanai diprediksi mulai berproduksi pada 2015.

Beneficiary of Jokowi’s vision on energy. PGAS akan menjadi pihak yang diuntungkand ari visi energi Jokowi, seperti 1) prioritas pada pembangkit listrik batu bara dan gas untuk meningkatkan produksi listrik; 2) menyediakan insentif untuk membangun infrastruktur gas guna memenuhi kebutuhan gas domestik.

Maintain assumptions and Reiterate Buy recommendation with TP: Rp6,650. TP kami tetapkan di of Rp6.650 berdasarkan metode diskonto arus kas (DCF) (WACC=9,7%, Terminal growth=3%) yang mencerminkan PE ratio (PE ratio) 2015 sebesar 15,7x.

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September 2, 2014

LAPORAN INFLASI (Indeks Harga Konsumen)

LAPORAN INFLASI (Indeks Harga Konsumen) Berdasarkan perhitungan Tingkat Inflasi Tahunan 2014 : 2013 :
Agustus  3.99 % : 8.79 %
Juli  4.53 % : 8.61 %
Juni  6.70 % : 5.90 %
Mei  7.32 % : 5.47 %
April 7.25 % : 5.57 %
Maret 7.32 % : 5.90 %
Februari 7.75 % :  5.31 %
Januari  8.22 % : 4.57 %
(SUMBER : BI)

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September 2, 2014

EXCL secara resmi melepas kepemilikan saham treasury perusahaan sebesar 231.114.140 lembar saham

PT XL Axiata Tbk (EXCL) secara resmi melepas kepemilikan saham treasury perusahaan sebesar 231.114.140 lembar saham. (2,7% dari total kepemilikan saham yang dimiliki oleh XL sampai dengan periode 29 Agustus 2014), Harga saham sesuai dengan rata-rata harga pasar yakni Rp. 5.708 per lembar. Nilai tersebut merupakan nilai diatas harga minimum yakni Rp.5.280 per lembar saham. Penjualan saham treasury ini dilakukan oleh XL dalam rangka memperkuat posisi keuangan perusahaan. (IDX)

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September 2, 2014

SMGR, state-owned cement producer, may have to postpone its Myanmar expansion plans until next year due to difficulties in negotiating ownership with its partner

Semen Indonesia (SMGR), state-owned cement producer, may have to postpone its Myanmar expansion plans until next year due to difficulties in negotiating ownership with its partner. SMGR proposed to have at least 20% stake in the JV as well as the rights to be the operator and the distributor of the products but the local partner wants a major ownership too. For Myanmar’s plan, SMGR has earmarked US$300m from its budget and would need additional bank loans to finance the expansion.

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September 2, 2014

SSIA to expand in West Java

PT Surya Semesta Internusa Tbk (SSIA) to expand in West Java. SSIA akan berkekspansi di Jawa Barat melalui tiga proyek. Ketiganya adalah Surya Cipta Industi Karawang fase ketiga, Technopark estatem, dan tambahan lahan industri baru. Perusahaan optimistis untuk memenuhi target pendapatan Rp4,5 triliun-Rp5 triliun dan laba bersih Rp400 miliar-Rp500 miliar akhir tahun ini.

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September 2, 2014

TLKM signed a US$250m subsea SEA – US cable

Telkom (TLKM) signed a US$250m subsea SEA – US cable. The consortium is made up of 7 telcos, 2 of which are Telkom subsidiaries (Telin and Telkom USA). The will link Manado, Davao – Phils, Piti – Guam, Oahu – Hawaii and LA – California. 70% of Indonesian internet are from the US, with transit in Singapore, Hong Kong or Japan. Telkom is also planning to spend US$1b on subsea cable to connect Indonesia, Middle East and Europe as well as the Indonesian Global Gateway.

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September 1, 2014

Tol Laut Masuk Program Mendesak di RAPBN 2015 Suci Sedya Utami

Pemerintahan saat ini kerap menegaskan, Rancangan Anggaran Penerimaan dan Belanja Negara (RAPBN) 2015 merupakan baseline dimana pemerintah mendatang bisa memasukkan 10%-15% program kerja mereka ke dalamnya.

“Memang seharusnya di RAPBN 2015 program Jokowi ada yang masuk sekitar 10%-15% agar bisa langsung berjalan diawal tahun,” tukas Deputi Bidang Sarana dan Prasarana Badan Perencanaan Pembangunan Nasional (Bappenas) Dedy S Priatna ditemui di Kompleks Parlemen, Senayan, Jakarta Selatan, Senin (1/9/2014).

Dedy mengatakan, program yang paling mendesak untuk dimasukkan dalam pembahasan RAPBN 2015 nanti yakni mengenai pembangunan infrastruktur.

“Yang terutama sekali dibangun oleh Jokowi yaitu 2 ribu km proyek jalan baru dan tol laut. Perbaikan-perbaikan dari dermaga pelabuhan, selanjutnya tinggal pembelian kapal,” ujarnya.

Meski demikian, lanjut Dedy anggarannya tidak bisa masuk seluruhnya di RAPBN 2015. Melainkan hanya sebagian saja dan harus menunggu pembahasan APBN Perubahan 2015.

“Anggarannya yang penting ada. Sebagian harusnya bisa masuk, kalau seluruhnya susah. Tidak ada jalan lain kecuali APBNP 2015 nanti. APBNP sesuai peraturan, dua bulan setelah tahun anggaran berjalan, yakni Februari atau Maret,” ucapnya. (WID)

September 1, 2014

Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral (ESDM) tengah mematangkan konsep pelabuhan khusus batubara bersama Direktorat Jenderal Perhubungan Laut, Kementerian Perhubungan

Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral (ESDM) tengah mematangkan konsep pelabuhan khusus batubara bersama Direktorat Jenderal Perhubungan Laut, Kementerian Perhubungan. 

“Idenya, semua harus legal. Itu saja,” kata Direktur Jenderal Mineral dan Batubara (Minerba), Kementerian ESDM, R Sukhyar, di Jakarta, Senin (1/9). 

Sukhyar menjelaskan, nantinya pelabuhan khusus batubara tersebut akan beroperasi khusus untuk menangani ekspor batubara. Adapun inspeksi serta audit ekspor batubara juga disendirikan. 

Sukhyar mengatakan, saat ini sudah ada 14 pelabuhan yang rencananya akan difungsikan sebagai pelabuhan khusus batubara. Adapun kelengkapan yang disiapkan untuk merealisasikan rencana tersebut adalah penyediaan kesyahbandaran, bea cukai, dan otoritas dari Kementerian ESDM. “Itu yang perlu disinkronkan,” kata dia. 

Rencananya, pekan depan Kementerian ESDM akan kembali berkoordinasi dengan Perhubla terkait pelabuhan khusus ini. Dikutip dari website resmi www.esdm.go.id, pemerintah berencana membangun 14 pelabuhan khusus batubara. 

Sebanyak 14 perusahaan tersebut akan menjadi pelabuhan utama yang melayani ekspor batubara sehingga pengiriman melalui “jalur tikus” tidak lagi terjadi. “Tahun depan insya Allah kita akan bekerjasama dengan Kementerian Perhubungan untuk memperbaiki 14 pelabuhan yang akan kita jadikan pelabuhan utama untuk mengekspor batubara,” ujar Sukhyar usai membuka secara resmi 20th Anniversary Coaltrans Asia di Bali, Senin, (2/6). 

Sukhyar mengakui, meski ini masih sebatas konsep dari Kementerian ESDM namun keempat belas pelabuhan yang akan diperbaiki sudah ditetapkan yaitu, 7 pelabuhan Kalimantan dan 7 di Sumatera. Di Kalimantan yaitu Kalimantan Timur, Balikpapan Bay, Adang Bay, Berau dan Maliy, Kalimantan Selatan, Tobaneo, Pulau Laut, Sungai Danau dan Batu Licin, sedang di Sumatra yaitu, di Aceh, Padang Bay, Riau Bay, Jambi Bay, Bengkulu Port, Tanjung Api-Api dan Tarahan. 

SMCB to give interim dividend of Rp260.5bn or Rp34/sh, 1.15% yield and 40% payout of 1H14 Net Profit

SMCB to give interim dividend of Rp260.5bn or Rp34/sh, 1.15% yield and 40% payout of 1H14 Net Profit. Cum date 16 Sept, Ex date 17 Sept 2014. Separately, Holcim is building a grinding cement plant in Lampung, to help transport cement to Sumatra; to be completed in 2015. Moreover, the currently-constructing Tuban 2 plant will increase its capacity by 1.7m tonnes to 11m tonnes pa (to start operation in 2015).

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September 1, 2014

Cellphone retailer and distributor ERAA optimistic to reach Rp13tn (US$1.1bn) sales this year

Cellphone retailer and distributor Erajaya (ERAA) optimistic to reach Rp13tn (US$1.1bn) sales this year. Xiaomi has recently appointed Erajaya as the its importer to Indonesia. In addition, Erajaya is in talk to sell Xiaomi phones in its retail stores this year. Currently, Erajaya operates 470 retail stores across the country.

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September 1, 2014

Feed producer JPFA received Rp300bn (US$26mn) non-revolving loan

Feed producer JPFA received Rp300bn (US$26mn) non-revolving loan. The loan is from Bank Mandiri (BMRI) and will be used for working capital. The loan duration is 3 years with some current assets as the collateral.

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September 1, 2014

1st SESSION JCI on 01.09.2014

IHSG @5171.23 (+34.365pts) (+0.669%)(H: 5172.71 ; L: 5157.34)Value: 1.724 T (NG 231 B )Volume: 26.152 M Lot (NG 7.841 M Lot)Foreign Nett Buy 81.59 BForeign Value 32.1%*BUY (Regular)F Buy 440.4 BD Buy 1052.2 B*SELL (Regular)F Sell 381.9 BD Sell 1110.7 BUSD/IDR:……!!!JISDOR: 11717/11710 NDF:        11690/11700JCI for today:support: 5155, 5130Resist:    5180, 51956 MARKET DRIVEN BY SECTORTRADE. (+0.25%) (564.82 B )MANUFACT (+1.00%) (263.52 B )PROPERTY (-0.48%) (226.85 B )INFRA.     (+0.43%) (210.05 B )FINANCE (+1.18%) (209.15 B )MINING.   (+0.13%) (136.07 B )7 NETT BUY STOCKs BY FOREIGNERSBBCA @11672.  (41.77 B )ICBP.   @10677 (16.79 B )LPPF.  @16429 (11.20 B )BMRI.  @10420 (6.93 B )SSMS@1317.  (6.86 B )KLBF.  @1666. (4.40 B )PGAS @5846 (4.23 B )7 NETT SELL STOCKs BY FOREIGNERSTLKM @2685 (9.55 B )VIVA.  @352. (6.65 B )BUMI.  @201. (6.59 B )ENRG @92.   (5.69 B )LPKR @1066 (5.16 B )ASII.   @7598 (4.50 B )PTBA @13442 (4.04 B )8 MOST ACTIVE STOCKs BY VALUEMPPA @3040. (-1.30%)TLKM @2685. (+075%)BBCA. @11700 (+4.46%)SSMS @1325.  (+1.53%)SILO.   @15150 (+0.50%)MYRX@670.   (+0.75%)INDF.   @7000. (+1.82%)LPPF.  @16525 (+1.54%)8 MOST ACTIVE STOCKs BY VOLUMEENRG. @92.   (1.913.369 lot)BUMI.   @199.  (1.739.920 lot)META. @206 (1.144.087 lot)MYRX @670 (875.543 lot)SUGI.   @416. (598.420 lot)VIVA.   @353. (582.002 lot)TARA @300 (525.409 lot)SSMS @1325 (522.890 lot)”…Have a nice Lunch….”

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September 1, 2014

BBCA set to cut top time deposit rate again for second time in a month by 50bps

BBCA set to cut top time deposit rate again for second time in a month by 50bps. The bank’s top rate of 9% will be lowered to 8.5% and applies to deposits Rp25b (US$214m) or above. Following rate hikes BBCA saw declines in its LDR to 73% from 75% as lending growth slows.

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September 1, 2014

INCO targets new contract amendment to finish in Oct 2014

INCO targets new contract amendment to finish in Oct 2014. The company is aiming to finish the renegotiation process of the CoW before the new president come aboard. The company is still discussing the timing of the new royalty which is one of the six point renegotiation.

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September 1, 2014

Jokowi aims to increase tax collection by going after those that do not pay tax and maximize tax payment through online system

Jokowi aims to increase tax collection by going after those that do not pay tax and maximize tax payment through online system. Total registered taxpayers in Indonesia are ~60m but only 25m actually paid tax. The new government will focus on several sectors including the mining sectors. There are also new attempts to boost tax collection including online system for tax collection, application of progressive tax, and giving tax incentives to businesses.

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September 1, 2014

PGAS gets US$650m loan

PGAS gets US$650m loan. The 5 year facility was provided by a syndicate of 5 foreign lenders with the proceeds used to develop the gas pipeline network. The company is constructing the first phase of the long-awaited Kalimantan-Java pipeline with 207km in Kalimantan. Additionally, PGAS is constructing CNG infrastructure in Central Java, expected to operate in Nov 2014.

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September 1, 2014

Indonesia Coal Sector: Initial steps have been taken to control production

Coal stocks have gained 6% on average YTD, underperforming the index
gain of 22%. PTBA, the only outperformer, rallied following good 2Q14
results, though only in July. We reiterate our strategy of focusing on
fundamentals and earnings and identify the following performance drivers
from here: (1) roadmap on cash margins; (2) regulatory implementation
and potential reduction in production; and (3) coal trade destination mix of
each producer. PTBA’s earnings should see the least downside under the
three scenarios, in our view, and therefore remains our top pick.

· We expect further margin pressure in 2H14. We reiterate our view
that 2H14 earnings performance will continue to be weak on declining
coal prices and a higher trajectory in strip ratio and cost. This will put
pressure on stock performance, particularly for ADRO, whose consensus
earnings are the most stable YTD.
· Trade regulation is key. We think coal exporters are exposed to higher
policy risk and therefore prefer the domestic play, PTBA. From
Indonesia, a new trade restriction requires coal producers to obtain
export licenses starting Sep-14. As a result, we could see less pressure on
price. Since the announcement, Newcastle price has rebounded by 3.6%
from the bottom.
· How to position for the next 12 months. We view Indonesia export
regulation as one of the initial steps in managing oversupply and believe
it should lead to a steady improvement in coal prices. We reiterate our
view that the 2H14 potential earnings trough may be a good time to go
long the liquid names. We continue to like PTBA due to its lower
sensitivity to global prices, steady cost management and volume upside.

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September 1, 2014

META targets tower to contribute 25% of revenue by 2017

Nusantara Infrastructure (META) targets tower to contribute 25% of revenue by 2017. The company current have 500 towers and is planning to build 350 towers this year. In 2013, 97.93% of its META’s revenue is from toll road. META is considering the possibility to acquire EXCL’s towers.

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September 1, 2014

Overblown CAD expectation

Defisit neraca berjalan (CAD) yang mengecewakan pada kuartal II/2014 (4,27% dari GDP, hampir menyamai posisi terburuk tahun lalu 4,4%) yang diabaikan oleh sebagian besar pelaku pasar saham, yang menilai bahwa kondisi musiman akan membawa perbaikan substansial pada CAD kuartal III/2014.

Global growth slipping. Di antara negara maju, hanya AS dan Inggris yang membukukan pertumbuhan yang meyakinkan. Ekonomi Jepang dan Eropa sudah kehilangan momentum pertumbuhan mereka. Ekonomi China juga kelihatannya sulit mencapai target pemerintah sebesar 7,5% dari GDP riil tahun ini, dan akan berlanjut melambat tahun-tahun ke depannya.

JCI to close 2014 strongly after coming correction. Kami memprediksi koreksi akan berlangsung jangka pendek untuk menarik indeks harga saham gabungan (IHSG) kembali ke 4.800 pada Oktober.

Meskipun demikian, pelantikan Jokowi, formulasi kabinet yang bersih dan kompeten, revisi APBN 2014, dan pemangkasan subsidi BBM dapat memancing tren penguatan selama bertahun-tahun, yang dimulai dengan penutupan indeks di 5.550.

Top Picks temporarily switched to defensive. Kami fokus pada perusahaan yang memiliki (a) EPS growth di atas 20% pada 2015; (b) prediksi EPS Mandiri Sekuritas vs konsensus yang lebih besar.

Top Pick Mandiri Sekuritas yang baru terdiri dari PT Tower Bersama Infrastructure Tbk (TBIG), PT Sarana Menara Nusantara Tbk (TOWR), PT Bank Tabungan Negara Tbk (BBTN), dan PT Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional Tbk (BTPN).

Selanjutnya adalah PT Tiga Pilar Sejahtera Food Tbk (AISA), PT Summarecon Agung Tbk (SMRA), PT Ciputra Surya Tbk (CTRS), PT Jaya Real Property Tbk (JRPT), dan PT Hexindo Adiperkasa Tbk (HEXA).

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September 1, 2014

MDLN akan akusisi 650 Ha lahan baru

Usai menahan diri di semester satu, kini pengembang properti kembali berekspansi mengembangkan lahan properti. Salah satunya, PT Modernland Realty Tbk (MDLN) yang berencana mengakusisi lahan (land bank) di semester dua ini.

Cuncun Wijaya, Sekretaris Perusahaan MDLN menyatakan, perseroan akan membeli lahan baru sekitar 650 hektare. “Semester pertama kami masih wait and see dengan kondisi politik. Sementara, saat ini sudah mulai stabil, maka kami akan memperluas lahan baru,” ucapnya kepada KONTAN, Jumat (29/8). Pembelian lahan baru ini, diperkirakan akan berada di sekitar proyek MDLN, yakni di sekitar Jakarta Timur dan Cikande, Banten.

Untuk itu, perseroan menganggarkan belanja modal sekitar Rp 682,5 miliar, atau 70% dari total belanja modal (capital expenditure) tahun ini, Rp 975 miliar. Sumber dana ini berasal dari kas internal perusahaan. (Kontan)

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September 1, 2014

Panin Sekuritas Research – 1 September 2014

Bursa Amerika ditutup meningkat didorong oleh keluarnya data sentimen konsumen AS bulan Agustus naik ke level 82.5 dari bulan sebelumnya 81.8. Pada awal pembukaan bursa Amerika sempat melemah setelah keluarnya data pengeluaran konsumen AS Juli naik +0.1%, menurun dari bulan sebelumnya +0.4%. Bank Sentral Eropa dieskpektasikan akan mengeluarkan kebijakan stimulus untuk mencegah kawasan Uni Eropa mengalami deflasi. Data inflasi Zona Eropa bulan Agustus +0.3% yoy, jauh di bawah target ECB sebesar 2% yoy. DJIA +0.11%; S&P 500 +0.33%; Nasdaq +0.50%. Bursa regional ditutup mixed. Data manufaktur PMI China bulan Agustus 51.1 vs konsensus 51.2; Juli 51.7.

Hari ini keluar data inflasi domestik (konsensus 4.01% yoy, 0.42% mom, inflasi inti 4.08% yoy) dan neraca dagang (konsensus defisit neraca dagang -USD406juta, ekspor +2% yoy, impor -10% yoy). Rupiah pagi ini dibuka melemah Rp11.710. Rata-rata harga komoditas menurun. IHSG pagi ini diperkirakan akan dibuka terkoreksi. Beberapa saham yang terkoreksi jumat lalu karena rebalancing MSCI mungkin rebound. Bila data inflasi dan neraca dagang dapat lebih baik dari ekspektasi maka dapat mendorong IHSG.
Trading BOW: WSKT, WIKA, PTPP, JPFA, BBCA, CPIN, TLKM, CTRS.
©Panin Sekuritas

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September 1, 2014

MDLN: Right on the Borderline

MDLN recorded below expectation 1H14 NPAT which is 30% to ours and 37% to consensus’ FY14 expectations. Though JGC seems to perform strong this year, we highlight risk on the delay of land sales to ASRI. Maintain NEUTRAL at Rp510.

Weak 1H14 result. MDLN reported 1H14 NPAT of Rp515bn which is 30% to ours and 36% to consensus’ FY14 estimates. The result is below our expectation as MDLN has not booked the land sold to AEON mall, which should be booked by 2H14. The delay in land booking, thus, resulted in a margin slip particularly for development income from 57% in 1Q14 to 47% in 2Q14. Net gearing stands at 54.9% in 1H14 vs. 63.2% in FY13. Meanwhile, sales advances were recorded at Rp432bn in 1H14 vs. Rp429bn in 1H13.

Stronger 2Q14 marketing sales. As of 1H14, MDLN recorded marketing sales of Rp1.8tn which is 45% to its FY14F target. Up to the middle of the year, JGC has performed much better than we expected. Marketing sales up to June has already reached Rp586bn at JGC thanks to the successful launching at Cluster Mississippi at JGC’s River Garden. During 2Q14, MDLN also recorded strong marketing sales in its Modern Cikande Industrial Estate due to its huge block sales of 110ha at Rp600,000/sqm. The block of land was sold to a company called SHS International who produces drugs for livestock.

JGC seems to perform well. We view MDLN has been more aggressive in its marketing strategy at JGC. MDLN will launch 300 more units at the River Garden with the next units in its Cluster Thames to be launched after the Eid holiday. The company has also launched 43 new shophouses called The Walk at JGC tagged with an ASP of Rp3.3bn/unit. So far, take-up rate is at 54%.

NEUTRAL at TP Rp510. We revise our marketing sales number to Rp3.6tn in FY14F. We expect Rp1tn and Rp966bn marketing sales coming from Cikande and JGC respectively. We also revised down our marketing sales for Modern Gateway from Rp1.2tn to Rp900bn. We maintain NEUTRAL on MDLN with a new TP of Rp510 implying 60% discount to RNAV. The counter is currently trading at 4.5x FY14F PE and 57% discount to NAV.

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September 1, 2014

TODAY 01 SEPTEMBER

TODAY 01 SEPTEMBER • RUPS PNBN • CUM DEV NELY 4 • BUMI RightIssue EndTrading (20 os : 31 HMETD, harga pelaksanaan Rp. 250 per saham) BUMI-R EndTrading • REGULASI 1.HARGA PATOKAN EKSPOR (HPE) – HARGA REFERENSI – BEA KELUAR SEPTEMBER : CPO : -HARGA REFERENSI CPO US$ 810,63 per ton VS periode bulan sebelumnya yaitu US$ 865,50 per ton (turun sebesar 6,3). -HARGA PATOKAN EKSPOR HPE CPO sebesar US$ 739 per ton VS periode bulan sebelumnya sebesar US$ 794 per ton (turun 6,9 persen) -BEA KELUAR CPO untuk September 2014 sebesar 9% VS 10,5% pada Agustus 2014 BIJI KAKAO : -HARGA REFERENSI BIJI KAKAO :  naik 3,5 persen menjadi US$ 3.199,18 per ton. -HPE BIJI KAKAO menjadi US$ 2.894 per metrik ton. -BEA KELUAR BIJI KAKAO tidak berubah, yaitu 10 persen. 2.Saham yang dapat ditransaksikan secara marjin untuk bulan SEPTEMBER Dari 55 saham yang terpilih bulan lalu, pada bulan ini ada 4 (empat) saham baru yang masuk dan 2 (dua) saham yang keluar, Saham yang masuk adalah : 1.ADHI 2.DILD 3.MDLN 4.MPPA Saham yang keluar adalah : 1.BMTR 2.MNCN 3.BEI akan meluncurkan indeks yang terdiri dari saham-saham Badan Usaha Milik Negara (BUMN) pada semester II tahun 2014 (September 2014). (SEE MORE UR EMAIL) 4.Per 1 September, Eksportir Batu Bara Wajib Punya ET 5.REMINDER  REBALANCING MSCI Effective date: September 1, 2014, SECTOR WEIGHTs % SEE MORE UT EMAIL • PT Ramayana Lestari Sentosa Tbk. (RALS) akan masuk menjadi anggota dari organisasi SPAR International B.V. mulai 1 September 2014. SPAR berasal dari Belanda. • 19-Jun-14 19:20 | vivanews.com : 1 September, Tarif Kereta Api Ekonomi Naik • Siaran Pers; Garuda Layani Rute Sumbawa Mulai 1 September Garuda Indonesia-salah satu maskapai ternama  di Indonesia, siap membuka rute penerbangan ke Sumbawa Besar mulai bulan September 2014. http://www.sumbawakab.go.id/lihatBerita.php?act=lihat&idNya=3869

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September 1, 2014

KIJA 2Q14 results

Event: 2Q14’s result – margin expansion but forex loss sent lower npat

· Revenue flat QoQ, need segment detail to analyze this performance; its relatively inline to consensus FY14 estimate with 1H14 landed at 47%.

· Gross profit for 2Q expanded QoQ and YoY on margin expansion. We need further segment details on more analysis.

o As for YoY, significant improvement in the Power Plant segment’s margin which expanded from 8% in 1H13 to 12% in 1H14. KIJA’s power plant was running inefficiently last year due to technical issue; it expects no more technical issue this year and should manage to maintain the ~12% gross margin for the rest of the year.

· EBIT similarly increased QoQ due to margin expansion.

· Quarterly NPAT dropped due to forex loss in 2Q14. KIJA used Rp11.969/US$ exchange rate for 1H14 report, depreciated 5% vs 1Q14’s exchange rate of Rp11.404/US$.

· The counter trades at 8.6-8.2x 14-15Cons PE and 5.8x 14-15Cons EV/EBITDA.

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September 1, 2014

SOE airport operator PT Angkasa Pura II (AP II) is interested to build 3km airport toll road from Daan Mogot-Cengkarang; pending approval Ministry of Public Works

SOE airport operator PT Angkasa Pura II (AP II) is interested to build 3km airport toll road from Daan Mogot-Cengkarang; pending approval Ministry of Public Works. The 14.2 km Cengkareng-Batu Ceper-Kunciran toll road will see a new investor joining in. AP II has expressed its interest to build 3 km of toll road from Daan Mogot-Cengkareng; hence total airport toll road to be 17.2 km. JSMR, the toll road’s majority holder, promised to hasten the land acquisition issue (so far only 9.73% of land acquired). AP II said it will utilize its vacant land for the toll road to ease access to Soekarno-Hatta airport.

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September 1, 2014

Strategy: Beware of turbulence ahead

Nilai ekuitas di Indonesia akan ditekan oleh kombinasi dari faktor domestik (neraca perdagangan yang mengecewakan) dan peristiwa ekonomi dunia (prospek pertumbuhan global yang meredup). Meskipun demikian, kami memprediksi koreksi akan berlangsung dalam jangka waktu pendek.

Serangkaian berita positif akan mendongrak indeks harga saham gabungan (IHSG) sehingga akan ditutup di 5.550 pada akhir tahun.

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August 31, 2014

Stocks Work for Gains Ahead of Labor Holiday

On lighter trading volume, the U.S. equity markets closed the session higher with stocks jumping from one side of the flatline to the other as festering Ukraine concerns collided with some upbeat economic data. Treasuries were mixed as the domestic docket showed consumer sentiment and Midwest manufacturing activity topped expectations, while a separate release revealed a softer-than-expected read on personal income and spending. In light equity news, Big Lots topped the Street’s profit projections, but missed analysts’ same-store sales forecasts. Meanwhile, gold was lower, while crude oil prices and the U.S. dollar were higher.

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August 31, 2014

That Jokowi now has Presidential Security Detail (Paspampres)

That Jokowi now has Presidential Security Detail (Paspampres)? 25 personnel have been assigned to escort Jokowi, while his wife, Iriana also received 12 security personnel. Compared to his six predecessors, Jokowi will probably be the most difficult leader to guard due to his fondness for being close to the people, his informal style, and particularly his habit of impromptu visits (blusukan). Jokowi has made it very clear that he would not allow security and protocol details to become barriers between him and the people. Unlike other high-ranking officials, Jokowi is known to disdain for the use of motorcycles to clear the traffic in front of his vehicle throughout his tenure as Jakarta governor.

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August 31, 2014

Fuel prices may increase in Nov by Rp500/L to Rp3,000/L

Fuel prices may increase in Nov by Rp500/L to Rp3,000/L. After a fruitless visit to Bali to negotiate with outgoing President SBY to raise fuel prices now, Jokowi is reportedly considering raising fuel prices in Nov this year. A Rp1,000/L increase would save Rp52t whilst RpRp3,000/L would add an estimated Rp140-150t. Even with direct cash payments of Rp20t to needy households, the saving is still Rp120t. 71% of subsidized fuel is consumed by private motorists.

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August 31, 2014

SBY administration & Jokowi’s transition team is considering to make smaller cabinet team

SBY administration & Jokowi’s transition team is considering to make smaller cabinet team. Minister of State Apparatus Empowerment and Bureaucracy Reform, Azwar Abubakar, was quoted in saying that ideally there should be 25-28 ministries while there are 34 now. The team is considering to merge 1) ministry of Agriculture and ministry of Marine & Fisheries into Food & Maritime ministry; 2) ministry of Trade and ministry of Industry into ministry of Trade & Industry; 3) Ministry of Research & Technology and Ministry of Education & Culture into Ministry of Research & Higher Education. On the other hand, it also considers to form split ministry position/department from 1) Ministry of Tourism & Creative Economy into Ministry of Tourism and Ministry of Creative Economy; 2) Ministry of Education & Culture into Ministry of Basic – Mid & Character Education.

August 31, 2014

Loka the new supermarket player for premium segment

Loka, a subsidiary of Tiara Marga Trakindo, is the new player for premium supermarket which opened its first store in Malang,
East Java. The company is targeting to open 5 new stores in Jakarta, Semarang, Kalimantan and Banjarmasin. The capex per
store is estimated to be around Rp15bn-Rp20bn with average size of 2,000sqm-3500sqm.

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August 30, 2014

Sepanjang Agustus 2014, terdapat 17 Anggota Bursa (AB) yang memiliki modal pas-pasan, yaitu di bawah Rp 31 miliar

Sepanjang Agustus 2014, terdapat 17 Anggota Bursa (AB) yang memiliki modal pas-pasan, yaitu di bawah Rp 31 miliar. Berdasarkan ketentuan, modal kerja bersih disesuaikan (MKBD) perusahaan efek minimal Rp 25 miliar. Samsul Hidayat, Direktur Perdagangan dan Kepatuhan Anggota Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) mengatakan rerata MKBD sebesar Rp 27,6 miliar.

August 30, 2014

2nd SESSION JCI on 29.08.2014

IHSG @5136.86 (-47.616pts) (-0.918%)
(H: 5192.83 ; L: 5136.86)
Value: 5.779 T (NG 1.128 T )
Volume: 62.547 M Lot (NG 27.804 M Lot)
Foreign Nett Sell 749.57 B **
Incl.Crossing:
SIAP @249 ~ 277.69 B (D vs F) **
TELE @800 ~ 118.96 B. (D vs F) **
CENT @200 ~ 108.49 B (F vs F)
Foreign Value 47.2%

*BUY (Regular)
F Buy 1942.1 B
D Buy 2709.7 B
*SELL (Regular)
F Sell 2357.9 B
D Sell 2293.9 B

USD/IDR:……!!!
JISDOR: 11682/11717
NDF:        11701/11690

JCI for Next Monday(01/09):
Support: 5125, 5115
Resist:    5160, 5185

6 MARKET DRIVEN BY SECTOR
TRADE (+0.70%) (1.59 T )
MANUFACT (-1.34%) (1.17 T )
FINANCE (-1.66%) (994.90 B )
INFRA.    (-1.23%) (896.23 B )
PROPERTY (+0.26%) (598.38 B )
CONSUMER (-1.50%) (371.67 B )

6 TOP GAINERs
KBLV. @2730 (+24.94%)
RDTX @6000(+18.81%)
PTIS.  @950. (+18.01%)
INPP.   @293 (+14.45%)
PUDP. @490 (+12.39%)
LMAS @56.   (+12.00%)

6 TOP LOSERs
GSMF @96.    (-16.52%)
POOL. @1500(-11.76%)
PICO.   @167.  (11.64%)
TMAS @820. (-7.87%)
PDES.  @180.  (-7.69%)
SMSM @3935 (-7.30%)

7 NETT BUY STOCKs BY FOREIGNERS
EXCL. @5841.   (96.41 B )
ICBP.   @10555 (25.84 B )
AKRA @5234.  (24.25 B )
SCMA @4131.   (15.85 B )
ITMG.  @28487 (12.63 B )
BJBR.  @863.      (10.23 B )
GGRM @54381 (7.66 B )

7 NETT SELL STOCKs BY FOREIGNERS
TLKM @2684. (179.13 B )
BBRI.   @11079 (55.27 B )
ASII.    @7603.  (46.03 B )
SMGR@16350 (41.01 B )
BBCA. @11485 (36.15 B )
PTBA @13479 (26.66 B )
ADRO @1324.  (24.71 B )

8 MOST ACTIVE STOCKs BY VALUE
LPPF.  @16275 (+1.72%)
TLKM @2665. (-2.02%)
BBRI.  @11050 (-0.45%)
EXCL @5950. (+2.15%)
ASII.   @7575.  (-1.30%)
BBCA @11200 (-5.49%)
BMRI. @10375 (-1.43%)
MPPA @3080 (+0.49%)

8 MOST ACTIVE STOCKs BY VOLUME
BABP @108. (1.894.468 lot)
BIPI.    @132. (1.804.429 lot)
META @206 (1.470.185 lot)
TLKM @2665 (1.200.723 lot)
CPGT @109. (1.166.968 lot)
PWON@435 (1.062.379 lot)
VIVA.   @341. (944.536 lot)
TARA @300 (883.726 lot)

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August 29, 2014

Indonesian funds parked in Singapore US$150b

Indonesian funds parked in Singapore US$150b. The US$150b is as much as the annual state budget and only accounts for individuals’ money in the country, according to Mandiri’s CEO. If we include funds parked in Singapore by Indonesian companies, the amount increases to US$300b.

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August 29, 2014

Kalangan pengusaha mendesak pemerintah saat ini segera menaikkan harga BBM subsidi

Kalangan pengusaha mendesak pemerintah saat ini segera menaikkan harga BBM subsidi. Jika hal tersebut dilakukan maka kesulitan masyarakat mendapatkan BBM subsidi akan berakhir karena tak perlu antre karena ada pembatasan.

“Sekarang ini antrean masyarakat mencari mendapatkan BBM subsidi karena pemerintahnya nggak mau naikkan harga BBM subsidi,” kata Ketua Umum Asosiasi Pengusaha Indonesia (Apindo) Sofjan Wanandi dihubungi detikFinance, Selasa.

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August 29, 2014

JPFA: 2Q14 results, below consensus but above ours

Much stronger 2Q14 results, above ours but below consensus. As we highlighted in our 2Q14 results preview report, JPFA recorded much stronger 2Q14 results with NPAT of Rp269bn (-10%YoY, +408.1%QoQ), mostly supported by EBIT margin improvement up to 9.2% in 2Q14 vs 2.5% in 1Q14 resulting stronger 2Q14 EBIT of Rp564bn (+6.4%YoY, +320.1%QoQ). Cummulatively 1H14 NPAT was recorded Rp322bn (-34.2%), still below consensus by representing 36% full year consensus forecast, yet above our expectation by representing 69% our full year forecast.
„
Robust 2Q14 sales growth across the board. In term of sales growth, in 2Q14 JPFA recorded the strongest growth of 82.5%YoY (+18.8%QoQ) in cattle business followed by aquaculture of 30.3%YoY (+26%QoQ), commercial farming of 30.1%YoY (+17.7%QoQ) and feed sales of 20.4%YoY (+10.0%QoQ).
„
Margin recovery in 2Q14. JPFA’s EBIT margin expansion in 2Q14 mostly attributabed from DOC segment which up to 12.9% vs -1.1% in 1Q14, followed by commercial farming which up to 2.6% vs -3.2% in 1Q14.
„
Under-review. We view that much stronger 2Q14 results align with our thesis that JPFA’s integrated business model benefit from the capped DOC price policy imposed by the Government in 2Q14 vs peers. Currently we are reviewing our forecasts and rating. Based on our current forecast, JPFA is trading at 29.0x – 22.0x P/E14F-15F.

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August 29, 2014

MTLA plans to develop 15ha CBD area in Cileungsi (Bogor, Greater Jakarta)

Metropolitan Land (MTLA) plans to develop 15ha CBD area in Cileungsi (Bogor, Greater Jakarta). The CBD development will take 5-10 years. MTLA aims to complete the Cileungsi mall by December 2015; this mall is being built in 2.5ha of land and will have 25k sqm NLA (50k sqm GFA) with Rp120-350k/sqm/month (US$10.4-27.8) rental rate and Rp88k/sqm/month (US$7.7) service charge; expected capex is Rp200bn (US$17.4mn).

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August 29, 2014
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