Weak Ending to Shortened Week

With U.S. markets closed tomorrow in observance of the Independence Day holiday, U.S. finished modestly lower following a lackluster June U.S. labor report and a higher-than-expected read on jobless claims, while caution was palpable amid the omnipresent Greek uncertainty ahead of the troubled nation’s Sunday referendum vote. On the equity front, Centene agreed to acquire Health Net for $6.3 billion,…

CTRA: Saved by backlog

§ Downward marketing sales revisions: In light of weak marketing sales of IDR3,235bn as of May (29.5% of IDR10,963bn full-year estimate), CTRA has recently considered to lower its 2015 target. On project launches, subsidiary Ciputra Surya (CTRS) has confirmed a delay in its Jayapura development, from which IDR100bn marketing sales contribution was expected this year, due to longer-than-expected license approvals….

Indonesia Property: US marketing feedback

 We recently visited investors in seven cities in the US to market the Indonesian property sector.  Investors were generally aware of the slowing economy in Indonesia. Most were looking for investment ideas for companies with strong fundamentals and long-term growth.  We highlighted that our Top Picks SMRA and LPCK still have strong fundamentals due to its market…

Global dan Asia Melemah, Waspadai Aksi Profit Taking

Bursa saham Asia pagi ini (3/7) dibuka melemah, mengikuti sentimen negatif yang berhembus di bursa global menjelang referendum penyelesaian krisis utang di Yunani. Bursa saham Jepang dibuka melemah, mencatatkan penurunan sebesar 0,32% ke level 20.457,61 pada pukul 8:45 WIB. Indeks tertekan oleh penurunan harga saham Fast Retailing sebesar 3,8% pada awal sesi perdagangan. Pada jam yang sama indeks ASX 200…

Consumer confidence drops in June on fears of economic decline

Indonesia’s consumer confidence dropped in June due to concerns over a shrinking job market and fears of a drop in income and business activity in the future, according to a central bank survey. Bank Indonesia’s Consumer Confidence Index, which samples 4,600 households in 18 major cities in Indonesia, fell by 1.5 points to 111.3 in June from a month earlier….

Equities Mixed Following June Labor Report

U.S. stocks are mixed in the final session of the week as the domestic equity markets will be closed tomorrow in observance of the Independence Day holiday. Greek uncertainty remains ahead of Sunday’s bailout deal referendum, while a mixed U.S. June nonfarm payroll report is keeping Fed rate hike concerns in check. Treasuries are gaining solid ground though the U.S….

AALI: Still a weak operational data

Lower production during 5M15 Struggling to maintain the production growth, AALI’s CPO production remained weak and only reached 691k ton, or decreased by 2.2% yoy during 5M15. The decline was due to low harvest in Kalimantan, which dropped 12.6% yoy. Meanwhile, total FFB production was recorded at 2.16 mn ton during 5M15 or decreased by 4.7% yoy from 2.27 mn…

MPPA Has Opened a New Hypermart G7 Joint in Mataram

MPPA has just opened their 111th Hypermart joint in Lombok Epicentrum Mall, Mataram, as of yesterday. The Hypermart G7 is built with new and more exciting concepts, such as the more spacious hallway, newly designed shelves, better lighting, and many more. The increasing trend of shopping within East Indonesia location is the main reason why MPPA opened this new joint….

Inflation update: Testing the cyclical demand

ECONOMIC REPORT Inflation update: Testing the cyclical demand June inflation: Better than expected but should represent demand slowdown June CPI was slightly up to 0.54% MoM (May: 0.50% MoM), accelerated to 7.26% YoY, beating the street and our estimates. We note that in term of MoM CPI level during fasting month, June inflation was the lowest level for the past…

LPPF: Discussions with management: SSSG trends improving, new store openings accelerating

We recently caught up with Mr Richard Gibson (CFO) and Ms Margarett Go (Head of IR) for an update (see key takeaways below). Operating trends in 2Q are improving (SSSG picking up, gaining market share, store openings accelerating, margin improvement on track) relative to 1Q15, despite the weak macro backdrop. We recommend buying into share price weakness and re-iterate our…

BBCA just released 5M15 financial result

BBCA just released 5M15 financial result. Net profit up 11% to IDR6.8t, covering 36% of our FY15F estimate. Loan grew 7% YoY with no aggressive provisioning made in April-May. Among the big banks BBCA has shown the most stable performance. Maintain BUY with TP at IDR16,000 (FY15F: 20.8x PER & 4.3x PBV).

WSKT: Factoring in rights issue

Rights issue is closer to completion The company had announced the 36.8 share for every 100 existing shares rights issue back in late April. This is an attempt to raise about Rp5.3 tn to help finance the construction of toll road projects in Java and Sumatra and electric transmission project in Sumatra. The company is issuing 3.65 bn new shares…

Mitratel’s share swap agreement is cancelled?

State-owned Enterprises Minister Rini Soemarno said that Telkom’s boards of commissioners and directors have agreed to drop the Mitratel share swap agreement with Tower Bersama. TBIG TLKM

GIAA: Numbers improving, but currency takes the gloss off

● Recent company-distributed updates suggest that Garuda Indonesia’s (GIAA) reported mainline airline earnings are responding to the low fuel price and cost saving initiatives. ● We expect its earnings run rate to accelerate as the year progresses, however, currency weakness and fuel prices are expected to deprive it of momentum beyond 2015. Moreover, lease expense (another USD cost) is expected…

ASII: Overall looks as though things are still soft but with stronger management around inventory and discounting, the counter could be worth consideration post 2Q results

Overall looks as though things are still soft but with stronger management around inventory and discounting, the counter could be worth consideration post 2Q results. A few takeaways from the sales desk around the call, followed with Sarina’s comments. Astra is actively managing wholesale inventory, now at 1 month vs 45-60 days before. Retail level discounting not as aggressive as…

AKRA: Key takeaways from company visit – Favoured by low oil price

Wide range of distribution service AKR Corporindo (AKR or AKRA) was founded on 28-Nov-1977 in Surabaya as PT Aneka Kimia Raya. Initially, the company only focused on basic chemicals trading. In 2005, right after the government deregulation of the O&G sector, the company became the first national private company to operate in the non-subsidised petroleum sector. In addition, the company…

Thursday (02/07/2015) Early BIRD Fundamental Perspective (Edwin Sebayang CSA®-MNC Securities)

Sempat diawal perdagangan DJIA naik +170 poin didorong kuatnya penambahan pekerjaan baru bln Juni 237,000 unit (kenaikan terbesar sejak Des 2014) & naiknya Construction Spending bln Mei (tertinggi 6-1/2 thn terakhir), tetapi DJIA dilanda profit taking akibat turunnya harga saham berbasis energi menyusul turunnya Oil price -4.37% & BELUM ADANYA KEJELASAN RESOLUSI soal Yunani bahkan Reuters dlm berita terakhir memberitakan…

Mall + hospital + better access at JGC, all after Lebaran

Latest update: Mayapada hospital is expanding in JGC MDLN has sold 1.5Ha of commercial land at JGC to Mayapada hospital, yielding around Rp149bn marketing sales. This implies commercial land sales of Rp9.9m/sqm (vs. Rp7m/sqm for AEON at end-2013). Construction should begin after the Muslim festive season in mid July and be completed within two years. This brings YTD marketing sales…

Indonesia Bank update: Growth & policy risks

Worsening loans quality + growth = lower earnings Given worse-than-expected slowdown in GDP performance, we lower our overall loan-growth target to 10.9% y-y from 12.7% y-y, in line with most banks’ reductions in their 2015 loan growth targets to 12-14% y-y from 16-18% y-y. As of end-April, loans grew by 10.3% y-y to IDR3,735tn, translating to 1.0% growth ytd (vis-à-vis…

ERAA: Potensi pemulihan

• Berdasarkan report Erajaya Swasembada (ERAA), transfer coverage, ke Emanuella Clarissa dan Isna Iskandar. Mereka mempertahankan rekomendasi BUY, dengan TP baru di IDR820 (merefleksikan 2015 PER di 10x PER), • ERAA berpotensi mengalami pemulihan kinerja, setelah dua tahun berturut-turut mengalami pelemahan laba. • Clarissa memperkirakan laba ERAA tumbuh 11% CAGR 2015-2017, seiring tekanan dari Samsung yang mereda. Sebelumnya tekanan Samsung…

Thoughts on Greece Impact to Asia Macro

* Very limited direct impact for Asia from the growing probability of Greek economic collapse, either by way of trade or investment relationships. Key transmission risk to Asia macro is through beta to global moves ($ and Treasuries in particular), and/or vulnerability to dysfunctional liquidity in global markets * Asian assets will likely open down across the board in response…

Indonesia Metal Mining: Polishing required

Metals: Generally weak demand on sluggish global economic growth The World Bank’s metals price index for March 2015 was 43% below the February 2011 high as all metals tipped into a surplus over this 4-year period in line with weak imports from China, which accounts for half of the global metal consumption. In addition, the World Bank recently lowered its…

MIKA: Company visit note: Slow but sure

§ Strong brand equity with more than 400 partners: Established in 1989, MIKA, an affiliate of Kalbe Farma (KLBF), now operates 11 hospitals (2 in Jakarta, 5 in the Greater Jakarta areas, 3 in Surabaya, East Java, and 1 in Tegal, Centra Java) with 1,650 total operating beds (total capacity: 1,950 beds) targeting the middle-to-upper market segment. Nine out of…

CTRA: Key takeaways from Public Expose

 CTRA reported 5M15 marketing sales of Rp3.2tn. As of 5M15, CTRA has booked 5M15 marketing sales of Rp3.2tn or equivalent to 30% of FY15F marketing sales target of c. Rp11tn. Landed residential accounts for 53% of marketing sales. While in terms of location, Greater Jakarta and Surabaya are the two largest contributors, making up 62% of 5M15 marketing sales….

CTRS: Key takeaway from Public Expose

 In-line 5M15 marketing sales. CTRS has just launched Ciputra World Surabaya Office Tower back in April 2015. According to the company, they managed to book Rp640bn in marketing sales (implying average ASP of Rp27mn/sqm). As of 5M15, the company book marketing sales of Rp1.2tn, which represent 51% of FY15 target of Rp2.4tn.  Makassar reclamation likely to commence this…

UNTR: No Turnaround Story At 5M15

Hingga 5M15, UNTR belum juga menunjukkan gejala pemulihan kinerja operasionalnya. Pamapersada sebagai kontributor utama pendapatan UNTR, mencatatkan penurunan volume pemindahan overburden & penambangan batubara seiring dengan efisiensi yang dilakukan para kliennya. Sementara penjualan alat berat juga masih berada dalam tren penurunan meski alat berat sektor kontruksi mulai menggeliat pada Mei 2015. Di sisi lain, TTA diperkirakan masih akan berkutat pada…

2nd SESSION JCI on 01.07.15 (By: D’ORIGIN – Veni Fitriani)

IHSG @4904.06 (-6.595pts) (-0.134%) (H: 4932.43 ; L: 4904.06) Value: 3.993 T (NG 954 B ) Volume: 48.544 M Lot (NG 13.864 M Lot) Foreign Nett Sell 212.00 B ** Foreign Value 43.7% Incl.Crossing: SSMS @1840 ~ 128.83 B (D vs F)** TLKM @2941 ~ 119.28 B (F vs F) *BUY (Regular) F Buy 1243.6 B D Buy 1793.3 B…

PT Great Giant Pineapple mulai menawar saham publik SIPD di harga Rp850 dalam aksi penawaran tender wajib (tender offer) dan menyiapkan dana hingga Rp395,07 miliar

PT Great Giant Pineapple mulai menawar saham publik PT Sierad Produce Tbk (SIPD) di harga Rp850 dalam aksi penawaran tender wajib (tender offer) dan menyiapkan dana hingga Rp395,07 miliar. Tender offer oleh kelompok usaha Gunung Sewu tersebut akan berlangsung hingga 30 Juli. Gunung Sewu dan pemiliknya yaitu keluarga Angkosubroto memiliki kekayaan hingga US$1,5 miliar dan menjadi keluarga Indonesia terkaya ke-23…

BBNI: Moderate 5M15; Cut TP

BBNI booked IDR4t non-consolidated net profit in 5M15, up 4% YoY, slightly below our estimate. 5M15 loan growth is still far from FY15 internal target. Hence, we cut our assumption to 11% YoY, at par with BBRI. The adjustment brought our FY15-16F earnings down by 3% and TP to IDR7,500 (FY15F: 11.8x PER & 2.1x PBV). Maintain BUY.

Property – Opportunities Amid Macroeconomic Volatilities

We believe 4Q15 is a better timing to re-enter the property market in the ASEAN region, as we expect a recovery by end-2015. Near-term outlook seems challenging, but we see opportunities in Thailand and Indonesia as both may speed up their infrastructure spending after a sluggish 1H. Property sectors in both countries are currently trading at below mean valuations and…

ERAA: En Route to recovery

· After two years of earnings deterioration, we believe 2015F will be turning point for ERAA. Earnings are expected to grow at 10% CAGR over 2015F-17F, fueled by easing inventory issue. For 2015F, we expect average inventory days to decline further, resulting less pressure on margin and financing cost. · Net margin is expected to be sustained at current level…

GGRM: Dividend 2015 July

Berdasarkan pemberitahuan yang kami terima dari Emiten dibawah ini, Emiten : GUDANG GARAM TBK dan Nama Saham : GGRM – GUDANG GARAM TBK . Dengan ini kami beritahukan bahwa Emiten diatas bermaksud untuk melakukan pembagian Dividen Tunai dengan ketentuan sebagai berikut : Rasio pembagian Dividen Tunai adalah setiap 1 saham akan memperoleh Rp 800 (Delapan ratus Rupiah). Adapun jadwal pembagian…

Around 80%-90% of palm oil export levy for subsidizing biodiesel

¨ Directorate General of New Energy, Renewable and Energy Conservation said that around 80%-90% of palm oil export levy would be used for subsidizing mandatory blended biodiesel. The remaining of palm oil export levy would be used for replanting old oil palm plantation. ¨ Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs said that the implementation of palm oil export levy would be…

Isu Yunani Mereda, IHSG Siap Melaju

Memasuki semester kedua tahun ini, bursa saham Asia dibuka bervariasi pada pagi ini (1/7), setelah Yunani gagal memenuhi kewajiban utangnya yang jatuh tempo ke IMF. Indeks Nikkei 225 Jepang menguat tipis 0,18% ke level 20.272,23 pada pukul 8:30 WIB. Indeks terdorong oleh hasil survei bank sentral Jepang yang memperlihatkan peningkatan optimisme pada industri manufaktur besar, dan lebih tinggi dari perkiraan….

SRIL Planning to Expand Their Exports to 5 New Countries

Sritex (SRIL) menargetkan ekspor ke lima pasar baru pada FY2015 (Kamboja, Peru, Australia, Kosovo, dan beberapa nergara Afrika). Berdasarkan berita di Kontan, Sritex sudah mulai mengekspor produknya ke Kosovo pada 1Q2015, dan berencana masuk ke empat pasar lain. Sritex juga dalam proses pembangunan pabrik baru yang akan rampung pada 4Q2015 dan mulai beroperasi penuh pada FY2016. Manajemen emiten positif pabrik…

CKRA mengharapkan due diligence akuisisi Perusahaan batubara asal Australia Cokal Limited rampung pada Juli-Agustus 2015

PT Cakra Mineral Tbk (CKRA) mengharapkan due diligence akuisisi Perusahaan batubara asal Australia Cokal Limited rampung pada Juli-Agustus 2015. Untuk memuluskan niat akuisisi Cokal, perseroan berencana menerbitkan saham baru dengan nilai US$100 juta dan menunjuk PT Sinarmas Sekuritas sebagi underwriter.

Stocks Recovering From Yesterday’s Drop

The U.S. equity markets are rebounding in early action from yesterday’s broad-based drop as elevated concerns about a Greek default are being soothed somewhat by reports that a last-second deal may still be achieved. Treasuries are trading lower, ahead of the release of Consumer Confidence, while a separate report showed home prices rose at a smaller rate than expected. Gold…

ERAA recovery

During the time when we have so many uncertainties in the market, some stocks get hammered much and have started to show value. One of the stocks that fills in the criteria is Erajaya (ERAA). We understand that the stock has been hit because of Samsung inventory issues. The fact that most of the business (85-90% of sales) come from…

1st SESSION JCI on 30.06.15 (By: D’ORIGIN – Veni Fitriani)

IHSG @4920.04 (+37.465pts) (+0.767%) (H: 4923.10 ; L: 4874.07) Value: 2.948 T (NG 1.078 T ) Volume: 48.974 M Lot (NG 32.929 M Lot) Foreign Nett Buy 58.24 B Foreign Value 30.9% Incl.Crossing** SIAP.  @218 ~ 557.40 B (D vs D) ANJT @1224 ~ 141.56 B (D vs D) *BUY (Regular) F Buy 824.7 B D Buy 1042.9 B *SELL (Regular) F Sell…

Equities Pressured as Greek Turmoil Ramps Up

U.S. stocks are trading decisively to the downside as the Greek crisis moved to a new level after another failed debt negotiation over the weekend. Asian stock markets dropped despite further stimulus measures out of China, while European equities are seeing broad-based pressure in late-day action. Greece’s stock markets are expected to be closed until after a called July 5…

ARNA: Lean Growth Story

 Arwana Citramulia (ARNA) is a leading low-cost producer and distributor of ceramic tiles under the brand names “Arwana” and “UNO”. It focuses on cost efficiency and product innovation as strategies for growth. ARNA is currently trading at 19.0x FY15F PE based on consensus’ estimates.  Low-cost ceramic producer. ARNA is a leading low-cost producer and distributor of ceramic tiles…

Jokowi wants to take away electricity subsidy

Government of President Joko Widodo plans to revoke the electricity subsidy, instead changed by giving cash to lower income people with family cardholders (KK). This will increase electricity rate, but electricity burden will be lifted up for the lower class population eventually by giving cash amount of around Rp 30,000 per month.

5 potential buyers showing interest in META

As much as 5 potential domestic and foreign buyers are showing interest in Nusantara Infrastructure (META). Rajawali Corpora Managing Director Darjoso Setyawan stated that the 5 potential buyers consist of financial institutions and infrastructure companies. One of the potential strategic partners is a subsidiary of an Indonesian conglomerate. Rajawali currently owns 21% of META and will sell all of its…

ERAA: Stream of Good News

 ERAA’s future performance will be more on positive teritory with i) government regulation on handset local content, ii) rising contribution from new brands, which will result in iii) more stable overall margins. Thus, we deem it is currently undervalued and upgrade our call to Buy with lower TP Rp810.  More handsets will be made in Indonesia. Ministry of…

ASRI announced that it has signed a MOU with Glory Fund Management to form a JV and co-develop a 300ha parcel of land in Suvarna Sutera, Pasar Kemis

ASRI announced that it has signed a MOU with Glory Fund Management to form a JV and co-develop a 300ha parcel of land in Suvarna Sutera, Pasar Kemis. Maintain BUY and IDR770 TP (27% upside). The land is valued at USD450m with the transaction expected to be finalised within six months. We are positive on the deal as it: i)…

BBTN: 5M15 results – net profit up 50% y-y (BBTN; Rp1,185; Buy; TP:Rp1,500)

 BBTN posted a 50% y-y increase in net profit to Rp678bn in 5M15, accounting to 36% of our full year estimate and 44% of the consensus. We believe improvement will continue in the coming months, as the bank will be more aggressive in lowering the problem loans.  Strong lending growth continued to be seen at 18% y-y with…

Cigarette production dropped 12.56%

Head of Indonesian Cigarette Factory Association stated that cigarete production from January to May 2015 reached 129.3b sticks, dropped 12.56% from last year’s same period of 147.8b sticks. Should the decrease in production continues, he expects more workers to be laid off this year.

Rajawali plans to increase stake in FGV

Rajawali Corpora: Rajawali plans to increase stake in FGV – Managing Director of Rajawali Corpora stated the company plans to increase its stake in Felda Global Ventures (FGV) to 21% from previously 2.6% after conducting an equity swap with FGV for 7% ownership in Eagle High Plantation (BWPT IJ). This is a follow-up after the agreement with FGV to sell…