Lembaga pemeringkat global Fitch Ratings menilai kenaikan BBM memberikan sinyal positif dan jelas dari agenda reformasi pemerintah baru

Lembaga pemeringkat global Fitch Ratings menilai kenaikan BBM memberikan sinyal positif dan jelas dari agenda reformasi pemerintah baru. Lebih jauh, penurunan subsidi menyediakan ruang untuk belanja modal yang dapat mendorong peningkatan, dan juga dapat meningkatkan neraca eksternal Indonesia, terutama untuk mendukung arus masuk investasi asing.

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November 23, 2014

AKRA meraih kenaikan laba sebesar +16.4% yoy atau mencapai Rp203 Miliar pada 3Q14

AKR Corporindo (AKRA) meraih kenaikan laba sebesar +16.4% yoy atau mencapai Rp203 Miliar pada 3Q14. Pencapaian pada kuartal 3 ini mendorong laba bersih hingga 9M14 mecapai total Rp579 Miliar (+10.2% yoy), atau setara dengan 72% dari ekspektasi kami (inline). Prospek ke depan untuk bisnis AKRA semakin menarik menyusul kenaikan harga BBM bersubsidi yang baru-baru ini diumumkan oleh pemerintah. Dari bisnis SPBU mereka, dengan naik nya harga BBM bersubisi maka diharapkan akan meningkatkan penjualan produk mereka akibat semakin kecil nya gap antara BBM bersubsidi dan non-subsidi. Selain itu rencana pemerintah untuk lebih meningkatkan infrastruktur juga diharapkan dapat memberi sinyal positif terhadap proyek Java Integrated Industrial Port Estate (JIIPE), yaitu proyek lahan industri dan pelabuhan yang terintegrasi milik mereka yang saat ini sedang di bangun di Gresik. Kami masih memberikan rekomendasi BUY untuk AKRA dengan TP di Rp5,650.

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November 22, 2014

BUMI plans to sell 50% stake at Fajar Bumi Sakti

BUMI plans to sell 50% stake at Fajar Bumi Sakti.

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November 22, 2014

ADRO committed to obtain USD400mn loan

PT Adaro Energy Tbk (ADRO) melalui anak usahanya yaitu Adaro Power berkomitmen menarik utang senilai US$400 juta dari konsorsium bank asal Korsel. Pinjaman itu akan digunakan untuk membangun pembangkit listrik tenaga uap berukuran 2×100 MW di Tabalong, Kalimantan Selatan.

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November 22, 2014

Besok Harga Pertamax Turun Lagi, Jadi Rp 9.950

Harga bensin Pertamax 92 dan Premium makin dekat. Mulai besok, PT Pertamina (Persero) menurunkan harga Pertamax 92 menjadi Rp 9.950 per liter. Harga itu turun Rp 250 atau 23,8 persen dari harga hari ini, Rp 10.200.
 
“Pertamina sudah menurunkan harga Pertamax sejak 19 Nopember lalu akibat anjloknya harga minyak dunia,” ujar Direktur Pemasaran dan Niaga Pertamina, Hanung Budya kepada CNN Indonesia, Jumat (21/11).

November 22, 2014

2nd SESSION JCI on 21.11.2014 (By: D’ORIGIN – Veni Fitriani)

IHSG @5112.05 (+18.48pts) (+0.36%)
(H: 5122.82 ; L: 5084.10)
Value: 4.921 T (NG 1.086 T )
Volume: 64.209 M Lot (NG 15.098 M Lot)
Foreign Nett Buy 237.08 B **
Incl.Crossing:
KPIG.  @1578 ~ 267.55 B (F vs D)**
DSNG @3855 ~ 159.98 B (F vs D)**
INVS.   @507 ~ 122.64 B (D vs D)
Foreign Value 32.9%

*BUY (Regular)
F Buy 1155.5 B
D Buy 2679.3 B
*SELL (Regular)
F Sell 1318.8 B
D Sell 2516.1 B

USD/IDR…..!!!
JISDOR: 12,161/12,161
NDF:       12,174/12,146

JCI for Monday:
Support: 5068, 5035
Resist: 5125, 5140

6 MARKETs DRIVEN BY SECTOR
TRADE.  (-0.03%) (1.07 T )
PROPERTY (+1.97%) (906.13 B )
FINANCE. (+0.06%) (768.71 B )
INFRAST (+0.31%) (615.59 B )
MANUFACT (+0.24%) (572.16 B )
AGRI.      (+1.83%) (568.00 B )

6 TOP GAINERs
CPRO. @67.   (+34.00%)
MIRA.   @65.  (+30.00%)
PTIS.    @940 (+16.05%)
KARW @620 (+15.89%)
LAMI.    @284 (+13.60%)
GDYR. @18350 (+11.89%)

6 TOP LOSERs
TRAM @1040 (-24.91%)
GSMF @78 (-13.33%)
GTBO @500 (-10.71%)
SUPR @8250 (-8.33%)
BRPT @299 (-7.72%)
MITI @186 (-7.46%)

7 NET BUY STOCKs BY FOREIGNERS
BBRI.   @11155 (79.96 B )
LPKR. @1102.  (38.99 B )
PGAS @6189.  (17.21 B )
INDF.    @6714 (14.82 B )
TLKM. @2754 (14.68 B )
PTBA. @12657 (13.65 B )
BSDE. @1650.   (9.54 B )

7 NET SELL STOCKs BY FOREIGNERS
UNTR @18276 (90.65 B )
BMRI.  @10399 (58.68 B )
AALI.   @25007 (28.26 B )
ASII.    @6959. (25.36 B )
WSKT @1035. (24.09 B )
BBCA. @13301. (17.15 B )
WIKA. @3013.   (13.81 B )

8 MOST ACTIVE STOCKs BY VALUE
BBRI @11175 (+0.45%)
LPKR @1130 (+5.12%)
UNTR @18275 (-3.05%)
BBNI @5775 (-0.43%)
BMRI @10375 (-0.72%)
BBCA @13325 (+0.57%)
MPPA @3230 (+3.86%)
TLKM @2765 (+1.65%)

8 MOST ACTIVE STOCKs BY VOLUME
CPRO @67.   (9.702.133 lot)
BKSL. @107. (2.085.336 lot)
ASRI.  @505 (2.035.095 lot)
BUMI.  @93.    (1.796.430 lot)
SIAP.   @232 (1.531.065 lot)
LPKR.  @1130 (1.506.564 lot)
ENRG @101.   (1.483.459 lot)
TARA @423 (1.338.378 lot)

“…Have a blessed Weekend…”

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November 21, 2014

CPO Plantation profiles to be resilient to low prices

Fitch : CPO Plantation profiles to be resilient to low prices. ( CPO Price : 2,236 ringgit +0.58% ).

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November 21, 2014

CPRO ekspor udang perdana ke China 23,53 ton  

Anak usaha PT Central Proteinaprima Tbk (CPRO) yakni PT Centralpertiwi Bahari (CPB) mengekspor udang ke China sebanyak 23,53 ton. Kegiatan bisnis ini, merupakan perdana yang dilakukan perseroan ke negeri tirai bambu tersebut.
 
Assistant Vice Prisen Food Processing PT CPB, Samiono mengatakan, ekspor udang perdana ke China di plat 3 CBP dengan pengapalan pertama dilakukan pada Selasa pekan lalu dan dilanjuti pengapalan berikutnya pada Selasa depan (18/11).
 
“Rencananya, baru selanjutnya akan dimulai diproduksi pada awal Desember 2014,” kata Samiono dalam keterangan tertulisnya, Jakarta, Minggu (16/11).
 
Menurutnya, ekspor perdana ke China berupa food product dengan merek dagang Xia Bao yang terdiri dari jenis ebi fry, shrimp cutlet, shrimp nugget , shrimp roll dan shrimp sticks.
 
untuk ekspor perdana ke China ini dilakukan melalui Pelabuhan Panjang, Bandar Lampung,” ucapnya.
 
Diketahui, perseroan lebih dari 30 tahun mengekspor produk udang olahan kami ke tiga pasar udang terbesaPengapalan r dunia seperti Jepang, Amerika dan Eropa.

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November 21, 2014

Indosat Commercialize 4G LTE Service in 2015

Indosat (ISAT) eventually conducted trials of its fourth generation mobile services 4G LTE (long term evolution) with the commercialization targets by the first quarter next year. The company conducted a testing in the 15MHz of spectrum each in the 800MHz and 1,800MHz frequency. According to the company, the telecommunication industry has evolved from the era of cellular, wireless, up to broadband, as the speed and effectiveness of the service is higher. According to the company, ISAT’s Super 4G LTE services can be expanded up to 185Mbps, though, if the traffic is heavy, the speed could be down to around 60Mbps-70Mbps. Meanwhile, the ministry of information and communication (Menkominfo) stated that it will give commercial license by the end of this year.

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November 21, 2014

1st SESSION JCI on 21.11.2014 (By: D’ORIGIN – Veni Fitriani)

IHSG @5089.41 (-4.15pts) (-0.08%)
(H: 5095.36 ; L: 5084.10)
Value: 2.334 T (NG 725 B )
Volume: 25.737 M Lot (NG 8.429 M Lot)
Foreign Nett Buy 297.34 B **
Incl.Crossing : **
KPIG.  @1578 ~ 267.55 B (F vs D )
DSNG @3855 ~ 159.98 B (F vs D )
Foreign Value 32.3%

*BUY (Regular)
F Buy 402.9 B
D Buy 1206.2 B
*SELL (Regular)
F Sell 467.5 B
D Sell 1141.6 B

USD/IDR…..!!!
JISDOR: 12,161/12,161
NDF:       12,174/12,163

JCI for today:
Support: 5068, 5035
Resist:    5125, 5140

6 MARKETs DRIVEN BY SECTOR
TRADE (-0.42%) (781.53 B )
AGRI.    (+0.79%) (371.34 B )
PROPERTY (+0.80%) (340.22 B )
FINANCE.      (-0.14%) (262.81 B )
MANUFACT (-0.36%) (214.72 B )
MINING (+0.68%) (195.04 B )

7 NET BUY STOCKs BY FOREIGNERS
BBRI.   @11149(47.95 B )
PGAS @6197 (18.68 B )
SSIA.  @855.  (6.15 B )
LPKR. @1085 (5.26 B )
GGRM @61933 (5.13 B )
MDLN. @519.  (4.96 B )
BSDE. @1641 (4.57 B )

7 NET SELL STOCKs BY FOREIGNERS
UNTR. @18329 (58.01 B )
AALI.   @24922 (17.87 B )
BMRI.   @10410 (15.91 B )
SSMS @1237.   (13.55 B )
ADRO @1073.   (8.15 B )
BBCA. @13262 (7.05 B )
ITMG. @18159.  (6.16 B )

8 MOST ACTIVE STOCKs BY VALUE
MPPA @3165.  (+1.77%)
UNTR @18100(-3.98%)
BBRI.  @11150 (+0.22%)
LPKR @1095.  (+1.86%)
BMRI. @10350(-0.96%)
PLAS @1560. (-2.50%)
PGAS @6175 (0.00%)
ELSA @660.   (+4.76%)

8 MOST ACTIVE STOCKs BY VOLUME
SIAP.  @232.  (1.336.489 lot)
BUMI.  @93.    (967.346 lot)
FREN. @100.  (928.910 lot)
BKSL. @106.  (903.702 lot)
SUGI.  @427 (698.021 lot)
LPKR. @1095 (682.026 lot)
TARA@420 (674.880 lot)
ELSA. @660 (670.779 lot)

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November 21, 2014

SRIL issued US$70m bond

PT Sri Rejeki Isman Tbk (SRIL) menerbitkan obligasi dolar senilai US$70 juta (setara Rp838 miliar) bertenor 5 tahun dan kupon 9%. Obligasi itu diterbitkan oleh Golden Legacy Pte Ltd yang dimiliki sepenuhnya oleh SRIL.

Dana penerbitan akan digunakan untuk modal kerja dan membiayai ekspansi tahun depan yang dianggarkan US$104 juta. Perusahaan menargetkan pendapatan dapat tumbuh 20% YoY menjadi Rp8,5 triliun.

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November 21, 2014

SUPR to gather funds Rp10.5tn

PT Solusi Tunas Pratama Tbk (SUPR) berencana menggalang dana senilai total Rp10,5 triliun dari penerbitan obligas global US$650 juta (setara Rp7,9 triliun) dan rights issue Rp2,6 triliun untuk pelunasan utang, modal kerja, dan investasi.

Suku bunga obligasi ditetapkan maksimal 8% dengan tenor 7 tahun, sedangkan rights issue berencana dilakukan dengan menerbitkan 381,2 juta saham baru di harga Rp7.000 per saham dengan Kharisma Putra Prima berlaku sebagai pembeli siaga. Rencana itu menunggu persetujuan pemegang sahamnya.

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November 21, 2014

Goldman Sachs 2015 Outlook: “Living in a Low-Return World”

Keys takeaway:
• Japan’s Topix index will rise 18% by the end of 2015, European benchmark index to rise 9% while the S&P 500 Index will increase about 3%.

• U.S. economic recovery will continue at a rate similar to 2014 while expansions in Europe and Japan benefit from lower energy costs and “some relaxation in lending conditions.”

• Growth gap between the U.S. and the rest of the world will narrow, helping global stocks to catch up to American equities.

• U.S. 10-year Treasury yield will reach 3% by the end of 2015, up from 2.35% now. German Bund yields will rise to 1.25% from 0.8% while Japanese 10-year rates will increase to 0.8% from 0.5%.

• U.S. dollar will continue to strengthen against other currencies, reaching $1.15 per euro and 130 yen by the end of 2015.

• Brent crude to stay near $80 dollar a barrel next year and a stronger dollar will push gold prices to $1,050 an ounce, down from $1,190.34 recently.

• Commodities with below-trend supply growth, such as nickel, zinc and aluminum, will outperform, while copper will continue to lag behind other metals because of rising supply and sluggish demand in China.

“Our market outlook overall is quite benign,” they wrote in a section titled “Living in a Low-Return World.” Goldman wrote, “But, under the surface, it is striking that many asset prices are priced to offer low absolute rates of return over the coming years.”

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November 21, 2014

BEST: 9M14 results: Revenue recognition is still lagging

Bekasi Fajar Industrial Estate (BEST) just published its 9M14 results due to limited review. It booked net earnings of IDR279bn (-42% YoY) which is well below our and consensus estimates (45% and 66%). The reason is still because its revenue recognition is still lagging although 3Q14 saw a significant improvement than 1Q14 and 2Q14. We maintain our positive view on BEST as the new Government targets to invite more foreign industries to invest in the country. Our TP of IDR650 is 45% discount to RNAV of IDR1,182.

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November 21, 2014

BI rate hike 25bps: Ahead of the curve

Unscheduled board meeting; BI raised policy rate by 25bps… As the government increased the subsidized fuel price, Bank Indonesia decided to hold an unscheduled board meeting which resulted to the increase of BI rate and lending facility rate by 25bps to 7.75% and 8.00%, respectively yesterday. Meanwhile, the deposit facility rate remained unchanged at 5.75%. The central bank stated that the rate hikes were taken to anchor inflation expectation and also to make sure the impact of subsidized fuel price increase to inflation is temporary, which is in line with our expectation. Note that the recent increase in fuel price coincide with higher electricity tariff, LPG price, and food prices that could trigger higher inflation expectation, should it not properly manage (government sees 7% yoy 2014 inflation vs. our 7.5% yoy). Furthermore, by widening the lower band – keeping the floor rate flat and increase the BI rate –, we think the central is trying to balance between providing the signal to anchor inflation expectation and avoiding further liquidity contraction in the already tight condition in the system.
„
…followed by other macro prudential measures. Besides the rate hike, the central bank also implemented several macro prudential adjustments. First, BI enhanced the saving definition by including securities issued by banks on the LDR calculation rule. Second, it plans to give incentives for banks that channel their loan to small, micro, and middle sectors. We believe the details will be disclosed on BI’s next schedule board meeting on Dec14 (11/12).
„
Will the implications be negative to the real sector? The impact to the real sector is expected to be minor. First, the risk that liquidity will further tighten is minimum, given the unchanged floor interest rate (FASBI rate). Second, we think the potential that the deposit rate (cost of fund) of banking sector to creep up is limited given the already high deposit rate. Currently, the spread between deposit rates and BI rate are at 0.81%, respectively (vs. average at 0.26%). Third, the possibility of the guarantee rate of Indonesia Deposit Insurance Corporation (LPS) to also increase is small considering the level of BI rate and LPS rate are basically the same now.

Our view: the peak of the tightening cycle. The 7.75% level will likely be the peak of BI’s tightening cycle. As we have mentioned, a 25bps BI rate increase is enough to anchor inflation pressure and expectation of a Rp2,000/liter fuel price hike (YE14 inflation forecast at 7.5%). Our baseline scenario sees the inflation to peak in Dec14 before gradually back to normal pattern. Going forward, we think the BI rate will remain flat at 7.75% until YE15 as tightening bias will still be warranted to also ensure an easing current account deficit. The pace of structural reform and the dynamic of global interest rate will be the detrimental to BI’s policy direction.

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November 21, 2014

Panin Sekuritas Research 21 Nov 2014

Bursa Amerika meningkat setelah data makroekonomi menunjukkan penguatan ekonomi AS. Intel naik 4% didorong outlook 2015 dan deviden yang lebih tinggi. Existing home sales AS Okt 5,26 juta dan Leading indicators +0,9% diatas ekspektasi konsensus. Data mingguan jobless claims AS menurun lebih dari yang diperkirakan konsensus menjadi 291ribu, level terendah sejak 2000. Sentimen negatif datang dari data manufaktur global, yang menandakan perlambatan dibandingkan bulan sebelumnya. Data PMI Zona Eropa Nov 51,4 dibawah ekspektasi dan menurun dibandingkan Okt 52,1. Level bulan Nov terendah dalam 16 bulan. Selain itu data HSBC PMI China menurun ke 50 dari 50,4 Okt dan konsensus 50,2 dengan indeks manufaktur produksi output China menurun pertama kalinya dalam 6 bulan. Data preliminary PMI Markit AS Nov 54,7, menurun dari Okt 55,9.

Bursa regional kemarin ditutup mixed. Data ekspor Jepang Okt +9,6% yoy melebihi konsensus 4,5% dan Sept 6,9%. Impor Jepang +2,7% vs cons 3,4% dan Sept 6,2% sehingga defisit perdagangan Jepang 710 miliar yen, lebih rendah dari konsensus defisit 1,05 triliun yen. Peningkatan ekspor ini mengindikasikan pemulihan. IHSG diperkirakan terkoreksi tertekan oleh sentimen negatif data manufaktur global dan sentimen negatif politik domestik seiring pengangangkatan jaksa agung dari partai politik Nasdem, HM Prasetyo. Selain itu, BI menyatakan inflasi 2014 diperkirakan dapat mencapai 7,7%-8,1%. Sedangkan, Menkeu Bambang Brodjonegoro optimis inflasi 2014 7,3%-7,5%. Faktor utama pendorong inflasi bersal dari transportasi. Menkeu diminta meningkatkan penerimaan pajak Rp600T. 2 pelabuhan siap dibangun akhir 2014 yakni di Makasaar dan Tanjung Perak yang akan dikembangkan oleh Pelindo. Prakiraan dana mencapai Rp3,4T untuk pembangunan Pelabuhan Tanjung Perak tahap I yang akan dikerjakan oleh ADHI, PTPP, WIKA, dan Nindya Karya. Rupiah pagi ini Rp12175. EIDO -1,29%.
BOW: KIJA, ADHI, PTPP, WIKA, CTRA, AKRA.

November 21, 2014

BI Proyeksikan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi 2015 Berkisar 5,4%-5,8%

Bank Indonesia memproyeksikan pertumbuhan ekonomi nasional pada 2015 berada pada kisaran 5,4%-5,8% pada 2015, lebih tinggi dari proyeksi pertumbuhan ekonomi pada tahun ini yang diperkirakan akan mencapai 5,1%-5,5%.

Gubernur Bank Indonesia Agus D.W. Martowardojo mengatakan optimisme pertumbuhan ekonomi yang lebih tinggi tersebut muncul karena demokrasi Indonesia sudah semakin membaik. “Alasan terpenting atas optimisme ini adalah bahwa demokrasi kita sudah semakin terkonsolidasi,” ujarnya dalam Pertemuan Tahunan Bank Indonesia 2014, Kamis malam (20/11/2014).

Bank Indonesia juga meyakini bahwa sistem pemerintahan beserta perangkat birokrasi  akan semakin efektif. Keyakinan ini muncul setelah melihat kinerja Kabinet Kerja selama satu bulan pertama masa kerjanya.

“Kabinet Kerja telah memperlihatkan kecepatan yang sangat mengesankan dalam merespons berbagai tantangan struktural perekonomian,” tambahnya.

Seiring dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi yang lebih tinggi, BI memperkirakan pertumbuhan kredit perbankan mencapai 15%-17%, dengan pertumbuhan dana pihak ketiga sedikit lebih rendah yakni sebesar 14%-16%.

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November 21, 2014

Tertinggi Sepanjang Sejarah, Pertengahan November Capital Inflow Rp177,75 Triliun

Bank Indonesia (BI) mencatat, sampai dengan pertengahan November 2014, nilai arus modal masuk (capital inflow) sejak awal tahun ini tercatat sebesar Rp177,75 triliun atau tertinggi sepanjang sejarah perolehan capital inflow nasional.

“Capital inflow tahun yang terbesar dalam sejarah, mencapai Rp177,75 triliun sampai pertengahan November 2014,” ujar Gubernur BI, Agus D.W. Martowardojo, saat Bankers Dinner di JCC Senayan, Jakarta, Kamis malam, 20 November 2014.

Agus menilai, tingginya nilai capital inflow tersebut di dorong oleh adanya penurunan defisit neraca transaksi berjalan pada Kuartal III-2014 yang menjadi USD6,84 miliar atau sebesar 3,07% dari Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB).

Menurutnya, current account deficit tersebut menurun jika dibandingkan dengan current account deficit di kuartal kedua 2014 ini yang sebesar USD8,69 miliar atau 4,07% dari PDB. Agus memperkirakan, current account deficit hingga akhir 2014 akan sebesar 3%.

Lebih lanjut dia menambahkan, perbaikan neraca transaksi berjalan tersebut juga didukung oleh surplus neraca perdagangan nonmigas. “Terutama ekspor manufaktur yang membaik. Mulai rebound di 2014,” ucap Agus Marto.

Menurutnya, perbaikan ekspor tersebut tidak terlepas dari kebijakan nilai tukar yang telah dilakukan BI sejak Juni 2013. “Dengan pelemahan rupiah yang sudah kita lakukan sejak 2013, daya saing menjadi meningkat di tengah harga komoditas global yang anjlok. Penurunanya sampai 2,3%,” tukas Agus.

Sedangkan Neraca Pembayaran Indonesia (NPI) pada Kuartal III-2014 juga tercatat mengalami surplus USD6,5 miliar atau meningkat dari kuartal sebelumnya sebesar USD4,3 miliar. “Sampai Oktober 2014 cadangan devisa kita USD112 miliar atau setara dengan 6,4 bulan kebutuhan impor dan pembayaran utang luar negeri pemerintah,” tutupnya.

November 21, 2014

PELABUHAN: Peluang swasta dirikan pelabuhan batubara dibuka

Pemerintah tengah memfinalisasi kebijakan penetapan 14 pelabuhan khusus ekspor batubara di Indonesia. Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral (ESDM) dan Kementerian Perhubungan akan segera mengeluarkan surat keputusan bersama (SKB) yang memuat daftar pelabuhan yang menjadi pintu keluar ekspor batubara.

Salah satu dari 14 pelabuhan yang sudah dipastikan lokasinya, di Muara Berau, Kabupaten Berau, Kalimantan Timur. Dalam waktu dekat, pemerintah akan menetapkan 13 lokasi lainnya, dengan perincian tujuh pelabuhan di Sumatera, dan enam pelabuhan di Kalimantan.

“Kami akan membangun pelabuhan baru di Berau dengan fasilitas yang lengkap. Bahkan, bisa dimasuki vessel (kapal motor) dengan muatan mencapai 100.000 ton,” kata Paul Lubis, Sekretaris Direktorat Jenderal Mineral dan Batubara Kementerian ESDM kepada KONTAN, .

Sampai saat ini, pemerintah belum menetapkan perusahaan yang akan membangun maupun sebagai operator di calon  pelabuhan baru di Muara Berau.

Yang jelas, pemerintah akan membuka peluang bagi pihak swasta yang tertarik menanamkan modalnya di sektor jasa pelabuhan tersebut. Maklum investasinya bisa lebih dari US$ 100 juta.

November 21, 2014

ISAT: INDOSAT UMUMKAN JARINGANNYA SIAP UNTUK TEKNOLOGI 4G-LTE

- Operator telekomunikasi Indosat mengumumkan jaringannya telah siap untuk penyelenggaraan jaringan internet mobile generasi keempat Long Term Evolution (4G-LTE).

“Dalam dua tahun terakhir ini, jaringan kami sudah LTE ready,” kata President Director & CEO Indosat Alexander Rusli di Jakarta, Kamis.

Pengumuman itu dilakukan bersamaan dengan Hari Ulang Tahun (HUT) operator itu yang ke-47 tahun.

Alex mengatakan saat ini antena dan infrastruktur jaringannya telah siap untuk beroperasi di 900 MHz untuk penerapan 4G-LTE.

“Saat ini kita bersama pemerintah dan operator lain membangun ekosistem yang baik bagi penyelenggaraan teknologi ini,” katanya.

Ia mengatakan hingga kini teknologi 3G dinilainya masih menguntungkan sehingga tidak akan dihentikan seketika saat 4G-LTE dihidupkan.

“Walau sudah siap, belum dikomersialisasikan. Kita tidak ingin teknologi ini diluncurkan hanya sebagai marketing gimmick, tapi harus dipastikan ekosistem sudah benar-benar siap,” katanya.

Pihaknya memantau saat ini perangkat pendukung teknologi 4G-LTE yang beredar di kalangan masyarakat belum seluruhnya siap. “Handset sebagian besar atau sekitar 70 persen yang ada di masyarakat masih 2G,” katanya.

Operator telekomunikasi yang menjadi anak usaha Ooredoo di Qatar itu bahkan mengklaim layanan 4G-LTE-nya merupakan yang tercepat di Indonesia karena mampu mendownload dengan kecepatan hingga 185 Mbps dan upload hingga 41 Mbps.

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November 21, 2014

LIPPO: Lippo luncurkan MediPlus bagi kelas menengah atas

Grup Lippo melalui Lippo Insurance dan Siloam Hospitals Group meluncurkan MediPlus. Layanan yang diluncurkan Rabu (19/11/2014) ini, membidik kebutuhan 50 juta warga negara Indonesia kelas menengah atas di kalangan profesional, karyawan, dan wiraswasta.

“Lippo siap kucurkan Rp 5 triliun dana investasi dan layanan kesehatan yang diperlukan untuk mensukseskan MediPlus,” sebut Presiden Direktur Lippo Insurance, Agus Benjamin dalam siaran pers yang diterima Kompas.com.

MediPlus, sebut dia, merupakan layanan kesehatan yang fokus pada kebutuhan medis secara umum. Hanya dengan Rp 7,98 juta per tahun, ayah, Ibu, dan 2 anak mendapat jaminan proteksi yang pasti dari Rumah Sakit Siloam dan Rumah Sakit jaringan MediPlus yang bertaraf internasional.

“Tanpa medical check-up, permohonan otomatis disetujui dan berlaku seketika saat pembayaran diterima. Rawat jalan tanpa batas, sepenuhnya dan kapan saja terjamin. Layanan ambulan dan fasilitas emergency selalu tersedia setiap saat tanpa biaya. Rawat bedah dijamin sampai dengan Rp 300 juta per orang per tahun. Rawat Inap tanpa batas, di kamar kelas 1,” papar dia.

Selain itu, lanjut dia, peserta MediPlus juga bisa meng-upgrade ke kamar VIP  dengan co-payment.  “Bahkan medical evacuation via udara tersedia apabila diperlukan. Untuk tambahan per anak hanya dikenakan biaya Rp 1 juta per anak/tahun. Seluruh fasilitas MediPlus berlaku sama untuk semua  peserta baik orang tua maupun anak,” tambah dia.

Lippo, sebut dia,  juga mengundang sejumlah rumah sakit swasta lainnya untuk bergabung di layanan MediPlus. Sejauh ini Rumah Sakit Bethsaida, Rumah Sakit Asri, Rumah Sakit Diagram Cinere, BIMC Hospitals Bali dan Rumah Sakit Premier Jatinegara sudah menyatakan bergabung.

November 21, 2014

MEDC: MedcoEnergi tandatangani kontrak blok baru di Oman

PT Medco Energi Internasional Tbk, melalui anak perusahaannya, Medco Arabia Ltd, menandatangani perjanjian kontrak blok eksplorasi dan produksi baru di Oman. Dalam kontrak ini, MedcoEnergi memiliki mayoritas hak partisipasi kepemilikan serta menjadi operator blok Oman 56. 

Oman 56 berada di cekungan hidrokarbon yang produktif, Oman Salt Basin.  Dengan luas area sebesar 5.808 kilometer persegi dan tiga penemuan hidrokarbon yang telah diidentifikasi.

Direktur Utama MedcoEnergi, Lukman Mahfoedz mengatakan, Blok ini diperkirakan mempunyai kandungan minyak sebesar 370 juta barel minyak oil in place. Selain itu, enam prospek potensial lainnya juga telah berhasil diketahui sehingga bisa menambah cadangan minyak.

Menurut Lukman, Blok Oman 56 ini akan menambah portofolio aset internasional MedcoEnergi dengan aset yang telah ada saat ini yakni di Oman, Libya, Yaman, Tunisia, USA dan Papua Nugini. 

November 21, 2014

HSBC PMI Nov 50.0 cons 50,2; Okt 50,4

HSBC PMI Nov 50.0 cons 50,2; Okt 50,4. Indeks manufaktur output turun ke 49,5, level terendah dalam 7 bulan.  Data ini menyusul data home prices Okt turun -1,3%.  Hal ini yang membuat sentimen bursa regional dan domestik menjadi negatif.

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November 20, 2014

Transportation minister caps public transportation tariff increase to 10%

Ignasius Jonan, Menteri Perhubungan, membatasi kenaikan tarif transportasi umum (setelah kenaikan BBM) hanya sebesar 10%. Jumlah itu ditetapkan untuk menghindari penurunan signifikan dari daya beli masyarakat setelah kenaikan harga BBM.

Kementerian hanya membolehkan kenaikan tarif antar kota dan dalam propinsi, di mana tarif dalam kota akan ditentukan oleh gubernur masing-masing. Di saat yang sama, kemeterian juga mengusulkan insentif fiskal dan nonfiskal untuk moda transportasi umum kepada Kemenkeu.

Insentif termasuk pajak dan keringanan cukai untuk beberapa suku cadang mobil, penurunan 50% untuk biaya balik nama dan pajak tahunan.

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November 20, 2014

Retail prices are expected to rise by 10%-15%

Berdasarkan keterangan APRINDO, harga ritel diprediksi naik 10%-15% setelah kenaikan harga BBM. Kenaikan diprediksi akan bertahap, seiring dengan usaha pemerintah menstabilkan harga. Dari sisi peritel, menjaga supaya suplai stabil dari suppliers akan menjadi kunci untuk menstabilkan harga.

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November 20, 2014

Bank of Indonesia (BI) increases BI rate by 0.25%

In response to the fuel price hike, BI decided to increase benchmark interest rate or BI rate by 0.25% to 7.75% from 7.5%. Besides BI rate, BI also increase lending facility rate by 0.5% to 8%, while deposit facility rate will be kept at 5.75%. BI Governor explained that the increase of BI rate is to tame inflation expectations and to ensure that inflationary pressures remain under control and temporary. On the other hand, the increase of lending facility rate is to maintain liquidity, in order to boost market.

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November 20, 2014

BEST to issue global bond SGD135mn

PT Bekasi Fajar Industrial Estate (BEST) melalui anak usahanya Bekasi Fajar International Pte Ltd berencana menerbitkan obligasi berdenominasi dolar Singapura senilai S$135 juta (setara Rp1,26 triliun). Citigroup Global Markets Singapore dan UBS AG telah ditunjuk menjadi joint lead managers dan book runners.

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November 20, 2014

CMNP: Low traffic volumes

§ Negative impact on traffic due to New Juanda terminal: The commencement of Terminal II, Juanda Airport in February has impacted the Waru-Juanda toll road traffic as it splits airport visitors between two airport terminals but Terminal II is inaccessible through CMNP’s toll road. The company is still in negotiation with the airport’s operator, Angkasa Pura II, to open a road access between Terminal I and Terminal II in an effort to increase its toll road traffic. However, we expect a flat traffic volume at 13.6mn cars in 2014 while the discussion is still ongoing. This note marks a change in analyst coverage.
§ Minimal revenue contribution from Depok-Antasari toll road: After numerous delays due to land clearing problems, CMNP began developing the IDR4.1tn Depok-Antasari toll road in May 2014. Out of the total length of 21km, we expect the first phase comprising 8.4km to start operation in 2Q16. However, as we expect traffic to be weak in the first 3 to 4 years of operation, we believe that revenue contribution from this toll road will be minimal (4% of 2016 revenue) at this point.
§ JIUT toll-tariff hike in 2015: On a more positive note, we project BPJT (Indonesian Toll Road Authority) to increase the Wiyoto Wiyono toll road (JIUT) tariff by 11-13% to align with our projection of Jakarta’s inflation in 2014-15. However, we expect CMNP to only reap the full benefit from the toll road hike from 2016 as the increase is due in December 2015. The JIUT toll road remains the main contributor for CMNP (91% of its 9M14 revenue; exhibit 6). For the Waru-Juanda toll road, CMNP has raised its toll tariff by around 13% in June 2014.

Outlook: Increasing salary expenses
We lower slightly our 2014-15 net profit forecasts by 2% (exhibit 5) as we expect the recent increase in salary expenses (9M13: 14.8%; 9M14: 21.4% of sales) to negatively impact CMNP’s bottom-line, although the interest income from its high cash level should slightly cushion the impact. We also reduce our revenue assumptions by 5-11% due to lower-than-expected volume traffic from the Waru-Juanda toll road. However, we expect the implementation of land-acquisition law in 2015 to benefit CMNP in the long run as it hastens land transfers and puts a time limit on the settling of land price disputes for the second section of the Depok-Antasari toll road.

Recommendation: Retain HOLD rating and TP of IDR3,300
We maintain our 12-month DCF-based TP of IDR3,300 (WACC of 12.0%) despite the slightly reduced 2014-15 earnings forecasts, and our HOLD rating on the back of stable revenue growth and manageable capex for the construction of the Depok-Antasari toll-road. We prefer JSMR (JSMR IJ-BUY-IDR6,875) as it operates more toll roads, and we expect it to have a higher ROAE of 15.8% for 2014 (CMNP: 12.6%) and a higher dividend payout of 40% for 2014 (CMNP: 10%). Risks to our call on CMNP include higher or lower-than-expected traffic volume on the Waru-Juanda toll road and a higher or lower tariff hike for the Wiyoto Wiyono toll road.

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November 20, 2014

PGAS: Looking for volume growth in Central Java

● Perusahaan Gas Negara (PGAS) has performed well in the last six
months outperforming JCI by around 8%. The stock currently trades
on P/E of 14x this year and 13x next year, below the market,
suggesting that the near-term catalyst tends to be neutral.

● Meaningful volume growth can only happen in three years
following the completion of the Central Java pipeline projects. We
estimate that gas demand in this area would be around 350
mmcfd (million cubic feet per day) from oil conversion.

● We lower our earnings estimates by around 7-8% for 2015-16 as the
conversion of Conoco Philips’ gas to the domestic market from
Singapore would be later than what we previously expected (in 2015).

● We roll over target price to end of 2015 to Rp7,200 (from
Rp6,400) based on DCF on WACC of 11.2% on USD cashflow.
We retain our OUTPERFORM rating on the stock as it is
defensive and well placed to build more gas pipeline projects in
the future. Key risks are lower than expected volume and price.

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November 20, 2014

JRPT: Shaking things up

Jaya Real Property (JRPT) is a well-managed property company, a subsidiary of Pembangunan Jaya (PJAA). The company’s main assets located in South Jakarta and Tangerang Selatan where it develops one of the first suburban area in the Greater Jakarta area called Bintaro Jaya in 1979. JRPT has developed 1,176ha in Bintaro Jaya and the company still owns land bank of 661ha. Besides Bintaro Jaya, it also owns 1,051ha land bank near Pasar Kemis area where Alam Sutera’s (ASRI) second township is located.

While JRPT has not been aggressive in launching its property products this year, we expect the company to start launching more of high rise property products such as apartments and office next year. It has prepared its CBD area in a good access location for the mixed-use development project. Bintaro area has been more popular since Lippo Karawaci (LPKR) successfully launched one mixed use development in Bintaro with price range of IDR18-20mn/sqm which is more towards in the higher range, in our view. We believe with its long-standing reputation of property developer and its superior location, going forward, JRPT can offer property products in the higher price range and be well accepted by the market.

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November 20, 2014

SSMS: Acquiring TSA and SMU

Dalam prospektus, SSMS mengumumkan akuisisi dua perusahaan sawit yaitu TSA dan SMU (perusahaan afiliasi). Nilai akusisi itu sekitar US$129,05 juta yang setara dengan rasio nilai perusahaan per hektare sekitar US$8.000.

Selepas akuisisi TSA dan SMU, area tertanam SSMS meningkat menjadi 58.531ha (vs sebelum akuisisi seluas 33.208ha), dan area siap tanam SSMS mencapai 46.707ha (vs sebelum akuisisi 42.007ha). TSA dan SMU masih menghasilkan rugi bersih karena usia perkebunan yang masih muda.

Kami belum memiliki rekomendasi dan TP untuk saham SSMS. Berdasarkan prediksi konsensus, valuasi SSMS sebelum akuisisi ditransaksikan rasio harga saham per laba (PE ratio) 2014 dan 2015 masing-masing 17,9x dan 14,34x.

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November 20, 2014

BI rate hike 25bps: Ahead of the curve. Unusual board meeting; BI raised policy rate by 25bps…

Seiring dengan langkah pemerintah menaikkan harga BBM bersubsidi, Bank Indonesia memutuskan untuk menggelar rapat dewan gubernur (RDG) di luar jadwal yang menghasilkan kenaikan BI rate dan suku bunga deposit facility sebesar 25bps masing-masing menjadi 7,75% dan 8% kemarin.

Sementara itu, suku bunga lending facility tidak berubah yaitu di 5,75%. Bank sentral menyatakan bahwa kenaikan suku bunga dilakukan untuk menjaga ekspektasi inflasi dan untuk memastikan bahwa dampak kenaikan harga BBM akan sementara, yang sejalan dengan ekspektasi kami.

Patut dicatat bahwa kenaikan BBM tersebut bersamaan dengan kenaikan tarif listrik, kenaikan harga LPG, dan kenaikan harga makanan yang dapat memicu ekspektasi inflasi yang lebih tinggi, dan jika tidak mampu dikelola dengan baik maka akan lebih tidak terkontrol lagi (pemerintah memprediksi inflasi 2014 sebesar 7% YoY vs prediksi Mandiri Sekuritas 7,5% YoY).

Lebih jauh, dengan melebarnya kisaran bawah – dengan menjaga suku bunga dasar flat dan menaikkan BI rate -, kami menduga BI sedang berusaha menjaga keseimbangan antara signal menjaga ekspektasi inflasi dan menghindari kontraksi likuiditas lanjutan di tengah kondisi yang sudah ketat di sistem keuangan.

…followed by other macro prudential measures. Di samping kenaikan suku bunga, bank sentral juga mengimplementasikan beberapa penyesuaian makro prudensial. Pertama, BI meluaskan definisi simpanan sehingga memasukkan surat berharga yang diterbitkan bank ke dalam kalkulasi rasio kredit terhadap simpanan (LDR).

Kedua, BI berencana memberikan insentif kepada bank yang menyalurkan kreditnya kepada sektor UMKM. Kami meyakini detailnya akan diumumkan BI dalam RDG selanjutnya yaitu 11 Desember.

Will the implications be that bad to the real sector? Dampak ke sektor riil diprediksi akan minor. Pertama, risiko bahwa likuiditas akan terus mengetat masih minimal, karena suku bunga dasar (FASBI) yang tidak berubah.

Kedua, kami menilai potensi kenaikan suku bunga simpanan dan krekdit di sektor perbankan masih terbatas karena suku bunga simpanan yang sudah tinggi. Saat ini, selisih antara suku bunga simpanan dengan BI rate sebesar 0,81% (vs. rerata 0,26%).

Ketiga, kemungkinan naiknya suku bunga penjaminan dari LPS juga kecil, dengan mempertimbangkan posisi BI rate dan LPS rate yang sama saat ini.

Our view: Likely the peak of the tightening cycle. Kami meyakini 7,75% adalah puncak dari siklus pengetatan BI. Seperti yang sudah kami jelaskan sebelumnya, kenaikan BI rate sebesar 25bps sudah cukup untuk menjaga tekanan inflasi dan ekspektasi dari penaikan harga BBM bersubsidi sebesar Rp2.000 per liter (prediksi inflasi 2014 7,5%).

Skenario dasar kami menunjukkan inflasi akan memuncak pada Desember sebelum akhirnya turun bertahap hingga nantinya menjadi normal. Ke depannya, kami menilai BI rate masih tetap 7,75% hingga akhir 2015 karena bias pengetatan juga dijaga untuk menurunkan defisit neraca berjalan (CAD).

Laju reformasi struktural dan suku bunga global yang dinamis akan mempengaruhi arah kebijakan BI.

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November 20, 2014

Panin Sekuritas Research 20 Nov 2014

Bursa Amerika sedikit terkoreksi dengan fokus hasil Fed meeting dimana para central bankers mengkhawatirkan tingkat inflasi yang rendah, dibawah target inflasi 2%. Sehingga Fed rate akan dipertahankan di level yang rendah. Dow -0,01%; S&P -0,15%; Nasdaq -0,57%. Oil Nymex $74,58/b. Data housing starts AS Okt menurun -2,8%, sedangkan housing permits AS meningkat ke level tertinggi dari 6 tahun. Bursa regional kemarin rata-rata ditutup terkoreksi.

Sebanyak 29 provinsi di Indonesia telah menetapkan UMP 2015 dengan rata-rata kenaikan 12,77%. Kenaikan tersebut lebih rendah dari UMP 2014 17,44%, dan 2013 19,10%. Kadin menyarankan pemerintah membangun 7 klaster industri maritim (Riau, NTB, NTT, Maluku, Maluku Utara, Bangka Belitung, dan Gorontalo). Sebelumnya pemerintah mempertimbangkan 4 insentif galangan kapal. Awal 2015 pemerintah akan mengajukan RAPBN-P 2015, Menkeu mengatakan laju inflasi dan asumsi harha minyak 2015 akan dirubah, asumsi Rupiah Rp11900 dipertahankan, pertumbuhan ekonomi mungkin tetap 5,8%. Uni Eropa mengincar 5 sektor seperti infrastruktur di bidang maritim, otomotif, makanan minuman, energi, dan kosmetik. Investasi di Eropa 2013 mencapai USD2,4 miliar. Pemerintah akan menambah dana kompensasi Rp3T menjadi Rp8,14T. Pemerintah akan mengucurkan dana kompensasi kenaikan BBM hingga Juni 2015. Dana ini akan meningkatkan program keluarga harapan dari 3 menjadi 4 juta atau bertambah Rp1,7T; membangun infrastruktur desa Rp4T untuk 8825 desa; dan program ekonomi produktif Rp1,6T. BI menurunkan batasan LDR untuk mendukung pinjaman infrastruktur. IHSG diperkirakan dapat naik tipis. Rupiah pagi ini menguat +0,35% menjadi Rp12113.
Trading: ASRI, KLBF, META, SMCB, INDY, ACES.
Panin Sekuritas

November 20, 2014

Panin Sekuritas Research 20 Nov 2014.

Bursa Amerika sedikit terkoreksi dengan fokus hasil Fed meeting dimana para central bankers mengkhawatirkan tingkat inflasi yang rendah, dibawah target inflasi 2%. Sehingga Fed rate akan dipertahankan di level yang rendah. Dow -0,01%; S&P -0,15%; Nasdaq -0,57%. Oil Nymex $74,58/b. Data housing starts AS Okt menurun -2,8%, sedangkan housing permits AS meningkat ke level tertinggi dari 6 tahun. Bursa regional kemarin rata-rata ditutup terkoreksi.

Sebanyak 29 provinsi di Indonesia telah menetapkan UMP 2015 dengan rata-rata kenaikan 12,77%. Kenaikan tersebut lebih rendah dari UMP 2014 17,44%, dan 2013 19,10%. Kadin menyarankan pemerintah membangun 7 klaster industri maritim (Riau, NTB, NTT, Maluku, Maluku Utara, Bangka Belitung, dan Gorontalo). Sebelumnya pemerintah mempertimbangkan 4 insentif galangan kapal. Awal 2015 pemerintah akan mengajukan RAPBN-P 2015, Menkeu mengatakan laju inflasi dan asumsi harha minyak 2015 akan dirubah, asumsi Rupiah Rp11900 dipertahankan, pertumbuhan ekonomi mungkin tetap 5,8%. Uni Eropa mengincar 5 sektor seperti infrastruktur di bidang maritim, otomotif, makanan minuman, energi, dan kosmetik. Investasi di Eropa 2013 mencapai USD2,4 miliar. Pemerintah akan menambah dana kompensasi Rp3T menjadi Rp8,14T. Pemerintah akan mengucurkan dana kompensasi kenaikan BBM hingga Juni 2015. Dana ini akan meningkatkan program keluarga harapan dari 3 menjadi 4 juta atau bertambah Rp1,7T; membangun infrastruktur desa Rp4T untuk 8825 desa; dan program ekonomi produktif Rp1,6T. BI menurunkan batasan LDR untuk mendukung pinjaman infrastruktur. IHSG diperkirakan dapat naik tipis. Rupiah pagi ini menguat +0,35% menjadi Rp12113.
Trading: ASRI, KLBF, META, SMCB, INDY, ACES.
Panin Sekuritas

November 20, 2014

ADHI: Cuts FY14 New Contract Target By 30%

Adhi Karya (ADHI) was reported by several media sources to have cut this year’s new contract target again by 30% to IDR10.5trn from IDR15trn. We have confirmed this revision with management. Maintain NEUTRAL and a TP of IDR2,720 (6.7% upside), which reflects a 17.4x FY15F P/E. We keep our current overall projections unchanged.

What’s new:
¨ Slashes FY14 new contract target again to IDR10.5trn. After cutting its FY14 new contract target to IDR15trn (from IDR21trn), Adhi Karya reduced its target again by 30% to IDR10.5trn. We believe the move was caused by delays and/or the company’s inability to get new contracts during this year due to the political situation. Nonetheless, we have factored in this possibility and set our FY14 new contract target at IDR7trn.
¨ YTD new contracts reach IDR5.5trn. Management confirmed that YTD, Adhi Karya has achieved 78.5% of our FY14 new contract estimate, or 52.4% according to the company’s target. The majority of the new contracts achieved came from the private sector (47.6%), while government projects comprised 37.1% and projects from state-owned enterprise (SOEs) made up 15.3%. Out of these contracts, 51.1% were building projects and 17.3% were roads and bridge projects. Other infrastructure projects made up the remaining 31.6%.

Comments:
¨ In our extremely conservative view, Adhi Karya is more likely to achieve IDR1.5trn of the remaining new contracts in 4Q14 based on our estimate, vs the balance of IDR5.0trn according to the company’s target. Our view is supported by historical data, which shows that the company was only able to achieve an average of IDR2.8trn new contracts during 4Q in the past three years, with the highest record of IDR3.95trn achieved during 4Q13.
¨ Therefore, we maintain our current overall projections for FY14-15 and keep our NEUTRAL call and IDR2,720 TP, which reflects a 17.4x FY15F P/E. Currently, the stock is trading at a 16.3x FY15F P/E.

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November 20, 2014

: Acquiring TSA and SMU

On its prospectus, SSMS announced that it acquired 2 oil palm companies, i.e. TSA and SMU (its related companies). Cost of acquisition is around US$129,052,778, which translate EV/ha acquisition around US$8,000.
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Post acquisition TSA and SMU, SSMS’s planted area increase to 58,531ha (vs pre acquisition of 33,208ha), SSMS’s plantable area increase to 46,707ha (vs pre acquisition of 42,007ha).
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TSA and SMU still generate net loss due to young age plantation profile.
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We have no rating on the counter. According to consensus, SSMS pre acquisition is traded at PER FY14F and FY15F of 17.9x and 14.34x, respectively.

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November 20, 2014

GZCO melalui anak usahanya yaitu PT Suryabumi Agrolanggeng telah meneken perjanjian pinjaman dengan BBNI senilai Rp783 miliar

PT Gozco Plantation Tbk (GZCO) melalui anak usahanya yaitu PT Suryabumi Agrolanggeng telah meneken perjanjian pinjaman dengan PT Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk (BBNI) senilai Rp783 miliar. Pinjaman itu bertenor 8 tahun.

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November 20, 2014

Fitch Sees Macau Gaming Revenue Growth Flat in 2014, Negative in FY15

Macau gaming revenue is projected at 0% for 2014 and negative 1% for 2015, according to Fitch Ratings. Fitch’s forecast reflects the persistent weakness in the VIP business, which seems to be spilling over to the premium mass segment.

We expect weakness in Macau to persist through 1H15 until Galaxy Entertainment and Melco Crown (Nasdaq: MPEL) open the Galaxy Macau expansion and Studio City, respectively, and the negative VIP trends are lapped. Until then, we are modeling largely flat sequential growth, which yields around 15%-20% YoY declines through 1Q15 and about a 5% YoY decline in 2Q15. Thereafter, we are modeling sequential 5%-8% mass growth and 2%-4% VIP growth, with the growth ramping toward the back end of the year.

Our 2015 forecast may prove overly conservative if VIP bounces back to recent historical averages (around MOP18 billion per month since 2011 compared with about MOP15 billion since June 2014). However, the VIP bounce is unlikely, owing to the reduced VIP positions relative to 2013 and earlier in 2014 (Las Vegas Sands’ VIP positions were down 20% in 3Q14 on YoY basis), general macro issues plaguing China (e.g. declining housing prices and tightening credit conditions) and what seems to be institutionalization of the Chinese government’s crackdown measures (i.e. establishment of Act-Net). Also the gaming expansion in Philippines will draw some VIP business away from Macau.

We are also building a degree of caution into our mass growth assumptions as we think the aforementioned macro and crackdown issues affecting the VIP business overlap with the premium mass segment. The smoking ban may also shave off 1%-2% of growth.

Despite revisions, we do remain favorable on Macau, as we continue to hold that Macau and the greater China market remain underpenetrated. We expect gaming revenue growth will be driven by new supply and infrastructure development and that the Chinese economy will continue to grow (6.8% in 2015 and 6.5% in 2016), anchoring mass market demand.

We are monitoring margin pressure stemming from increasing labor costs and the intensifying promotional environment in the premium mass segment during 4Q14. However, as in 3Q14, margins should benefit from the mix shift toward mass. We will also closely monitor progress on the Cotai developments. From a credit point of view, construction slowdowns would not necessarily be viewed negatively, as they would provide the concession holders additional financial flexibility through the development and added time to better size the demand.

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November 19, 2014

Fitch Ratings weighs in on Macau

Fitch Ratings projects Macau revenue will be flat for 2014 and fall 1% in 2015 as traffic trends remain pressured.A smoking ban in Macau casinos and a continued crackdown on corruption could be drags on revenue growth.The ratings agency says 2H of 2015 should see some pickup as new projects from Galaxy Entertainment and Melco Crown come online and the weak VIP trends from this year are lapped.

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November 19, 2014

Stocks Dip Ahead of Fed Meeting Details

The U.S. equity markets are moving modestly to the downside in early action, ahead of the afternoon release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s October meeting. Moreover, the Street is digesting a plethora of earnings reports from the retail sector, as well as a mixed read on domestic housing construction activity. Target Corp beat the Street’s quarterly forecasts but offered lackluster guidance, while Lowe’s Companies, Staples and PetSmart all topped analysts’ profit forecasts. Treasuries are lower following the housing report, which was accompanied by a rebound in domestic mortgage applications. Elsewhere, gold is trading flat, while the U.S. dollar and crude oil prices are trading higher. Overseas, Asian stocks finished mixed as the Bank of Japan expectedly kept its monetary policy unchanged, while European equities are diverging ahead of the Fed’s report later today.

November 19, 2014

1st SESSION JCI on 19.11.2014 (By: D’ORIGIN – Veni Fitriani)

IHSG @5123.65 (+21.182pts) (+0.415%)
(H: 5140.98 ; L: 5111.70)
Value: 3.256 T (NG 607 B)
Volume: 31.809 M Lot (NG 4.440 M Lot)
Foreign Nett Buy 274.68 B…..!!!
Incl.Crossing:
APEX @2750 ~ 365.73 B (F vs F)
Foreign Value 39.6%

*BUY (Regular)
F Buy 953.2 B
D Buy 1695.5 B
*SELL (Regular)
F Sell 652.7 B
D Sell 1996.0 B

USD/IDR…..!!!
JISDOR: 12,146/12,124
NDF:        12,135/12,142

JCI for today:
Support: 5060, 5035
Resist:    5135, 5165

6 MARKETs DRIVEN BY SECTOR
PROPERTY (+1.55%) (745.95 B )
FINANCE (+0.39%) (580.80 B )
MINING. (+0.49%) (539.59 B )
TRADE (+0.52%) (511.04 B )
MANUFACT (+0.23%) (489.95 B )
INFRA.   (+0.25%) (255.94 B )

7 NET BUY STOCKs BY FOREIGNERS
BMRI. @10531 (36.97 B )
BBRI.  @11153. (30.74 B )
KLBF.  @1770.  (30.36 B )
BSDE. @1632.  (29.32 B )
BBCA. @13325 (24.50 B )
JSMR @6893  (24.06 B )
SMRA @1344. (19.81 B )

7 NET SELL STOCKs BY FOREIGNERS
SSMS @1288 (13.49 B )
BBNI.    @5855 (12.56 B )
SMCB @2340 (9.76 B )
LSIP.    @1944 (6.02 B )
AKRA @4701 (5.39 B )
MNCN @2378 (5.10 B )
BBTN.  @1113.  (4.05 B )

8 MOST ACTIVE STOCKs BY VALUE
BBCA @13350 (+1.91%)
BBRI.  @11150.  (0.00%)
BMRI.  @10500 (0.00%)
MPPA @3180.  (+3.58%)
TLKM @2765 (+0.36%)
ADHI.   @2695 (+0.19%)
BSDE @1640.  (+3.80%)
LPKR @1065.  (+0.47%)

8 MOST ACTIVE STOCKs BY VOLUME
SIAP.  @246 (2.893.538 lot)
BKSL. @94.   (2.291.795 lot)
MDLN @520 (1.059.441 lot)
APOL @70.    (955.939 lot)
ASRI.  @473 (806.917 lot)
META @202 (796.740 lot)
LPKR. @1065(729.784 lot)
KIJA.   @283. (719.025 lot)

“…Have a nice Lunch…”

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November 19, 2014

3 SOE contractors aim 2015 new contract worth IDR80.57t

Three SOE contractors have announced rough guideline for 2015 with PT Pembangunan Perumahan (PTPP) and Waskita Karya (WSKT) aim to secure 25% growth yoy to IDR27.5t and IDR23.37t respectively. More than 50% of the new contracts projected will come from government projects. Meanwhile, Wijaya Karya (WIKA) expect new contract to reach IDR29.7t new contract (+32% yoy). While Adhi Karya (ADHI) has not announced official guidance on the new contract replenishment for 2015F, the projections for the other three contractors were pretty much in line with our forecast.

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November 19, 2014

Indonesia fuel price UP!

Indonesia government has raised domestic fuel price by IDR2,000/lt, or at the lower end of expectation of IDR2000-3000/lt price hike as global oil price has declined in the past few weeks. Effective from 18 Nov 2014, the gasoline price will be at IDR8,500/lt (+31%) and diesel price will be at IDR7,500/lt (+36%). We believe the price hike is positive for structural change but the magnitude is ‘just enough’ to narrow down the price gap with international price. We estimate the government will still have to spend IDR1,000-1,500/lt for fuel subsidies. This will reduce the budget for fuel subsidies from IDR280tn in 2014E to IDR50tn-75tn in 2015F, based on our estimates.

We see risks for fuel subsidies problem to return if international oil price move up or IDR depreciate further. We also expect more limited chance for President Jokowi to increase fuel price again within 12 months in the event of international oil price hike or IDR weakness.

The implications from the fuel price hike:

· Fiscal deficit will be reduced sharply, we believe. Budget for fuel subsidies (13% of budget in 2014F vs. 2.5% budget deficit) can be allocated for better use.

· We expect inflation to return to 8% (from 4.83% in Oct14). Government 10yr-bond yield may tick up by 50-100bps from currently around 8% but the BI rate is likely to go up by only 25bps-50bps from currently 7.5%.

· GDP growth is expected to remain at around 5% in 2015F.

· Foresee earnings slowdown in the next 2-3 quarters with the companies facing costs increases while pricing power is weak due to the competition.

· We see technical correction in equity market despite the positive long term impact.

· Infrastructure and healthcare sectors are the key beneficiaries.

Impact on the sectors:

Consumer: Consumers companies, especially high end retailers and automotive, are likely to face pressure from rising costs and weaker demand.

Banking: Expect tick up in NPL and thus higher provisions. Foresee slower earnings growth, but solvency risk will remains muted.

Property: We believe the property companies will struggle to drive growth in their pre-sales. Property price increase will be limited and transaction volume will fall, in our view.

Infrastructure: Foresee higher government spending from freed up budget.

Healthcare: Foresee higher government spending from freed up budget.

Commodities: Expect limited direct impact to plantation and mining sectors as they have paid market price for fuel and the smaller mines/plantations will no longer have the big cost advantage from using subsidized fuel (if any).

What to BUY now: GGRM, KLBF, JSMR, PTPP, TELE.

What to BUY in the correction: ADHI, PTPP, JSMR, BBRI, BEST, GGRM, KLBF, TELE, BRMS, INCO.

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November 19, 2014

BI hikes policy rate: Another boost to big banks’ margins?

● BI hiked policy rate by 25 bp to 7.75%, lifting it by a total of 200 bp including the 175 bp of Jun-Sep last year. Our economists expect real policy rate to remain positive even after CPI spike of 2.0-2.5% following the Rp2,000/l fuel price hike (by around one-third).

● BI also said it expects GDP growth to be around 5.4-5.8%, inflation at 3-5%, and loan growth between 15% and 17% in 2015. It would broaden the definition of deposits for LDR calculation so as to facilitate bank lending to productive sectors.

● The “200-225 bp over BI rate” cap would allow banks to raise time deposit rates by 25 bp and the second-tier banks might use it going into year-end. However, OJK might not allow banks to raise lending rates, so major banks’ margins may not expand this time.

● Loan demand is running at half the decade average, real interest rates were already too high and corporate sector profitability is under pressure. Banks’ profit growth slackened to 7% YoY in 3Q14 (vs. 5Y CAGR 28%). We remain cautious near term.

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November 19, 2014

BI Raised The Benchmark Rate To 7.75%

¨ Bank Indonesia (BI) board of governors’ unscheduled meeting decided to increase the BI rate by 25bps to 7.75% on 18th November 2014. In parallel, the lending facility rate is raised by 50bps to 8.0%, while the deposit facility rate is held unchanged at 5.75%. The increase was in response to the recent subsidised fuel price hikes that could push up inflation in the months ahead. As has been mentioned in several monetary policy statements, the BI said that it stands ready to act preemptively, should the government increase the fuel prices. Hence, the move was consistent with the monetary policy stance of anchoring the inflation at the range of 3–5% in 2015. With the unchanged deposit facility rate, the open market operation corridor is being expanded from previous band (see figure 2). This is to assure the liquidity situation in the banking system remains intact and at the same time promoting the financial market deepening.
¨ The BI supports the fiscal policy reform to reallocate the fuel subsidy to other productive spending. BI regards it as a crucial move for Indonesia to sustain its economic growth in long term. Although inflation will spike up in short term, it will likely be manageable with appropriate monetary policy tightening to anchor it. The fiscal policy reform will also help to improve the current account deficit. On the other hand, the cash transfer programme for poor people will mitigate a decline in purchasing power arising from the fuel price increases. This will provide a cushion for private consumption from falling too much. Additionally, the reallocation of the budget to other productive sector could enhance the government fiscal capacity to support a sustainable economic growth. As a whole, the BI is confident that the economic growth will likely grow in the range of 5.4–5.8% in 2015, before gaining speed over the medium and long term.
¨ We believe that the subsidised fuel price adjustment is necessary to make the best use of the state budget. Hence the policy will likely be supported by domestic and foreign investors. Furthermore, the inflationary threat and slowing economic activities will likely be temporary, while fundamentals of the economy remain solid. This, in return, will likely prevent significant capital reversal, as the economy will be restructured into a better shape, in our view.

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November 19, 2014

The recent bounce in gold price to nearly $1200 reflects more of position adjustment rather than investors turning gold bullish

The recent bounce in gold price to nearly $1200 reflects more of position adjustment rather than investors turning gold bullish; the bounce appears corrective in nature unless $1235 is surpassed. We maintain the 12M gold price forecast at $1050 and would look to initiate a sell gold recommendation on a rally to $1210/1230. A tail risk that could support gold prices is a ‘yes’ outcome for the Swiss gold referendum on 30 November. In particular the referendum seeks: 1) The SNB to hold at least 20% of its international reserves in gold (versus 7% of international reserves today); 2) once bought, the SNB can never sell that gold; 3) that the SNB should repatriate its gold holdings from overseas such that it has more direct access to them in an emergency. The odds still favor the ‘no’ vote and we will be closely watching the opinion polls over the next few days on whether the share of ‘no’ vote is likely to increase substantially. History suggests that GFS.Bern releases their last poll today. This is to be followed suit by the online poll from “20 Minutes” newspaper published on the 20 November.

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November 19, 2014

Japan PM Abe calls snap election, confirms suspension of second phase of sales tax hike until April 2017 and authorizes a mini fiscal stimulus

Japan PM Abe calls snap election, confirms suspension of second phase of sales tax hike until April 2017 and authorizes a mini fiscal stimulus. Given that a lot of the expectation of snap election and sales tax hike delay is already in the price, be cautious of aggressively chasing after USDJPY upside ahead of the FOMC minutes (3a.m SGT/HKT); wait for a pullback close to 114.50/115.00 to buy USDJPY. We will pay close attention whether the FOMC minutes of broader FOMC discussions during the October meeting matches the hawkish tone of the FOMC statement.

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November 19, 2014

JSPT sampai dengan 3Q2014 berhasil membukukan laba bersih Rp231,98 miliar atau meningkat tipis 5,90% dari raihan laba bersih di periode yang sama tahun lalu sebesar Rp219,07 miliar

PT Jakarta Setiabudi Internasional Tbk (JSPT) sampai dengan 3Q2014 berhasil membukukan laba bersih Rp231,98 miliar atau meningkat tipis 5,90% dari raihan laba bersih di periode yang sama tahun lalu sebesar Rp219,07 miliar. Raihan laba ini seiring dengan meningkatnya penjualan dan pendapatan usaha di 3Q2014 sebesar 2,96% dari sebelumnya Rp903,66 miliar di periode yang sama tahun lalu menjadi Rp930,38 miliar.

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November 19, 2014

Bulls Energized on Data and Delayed Tax Hike in Japan

Some positive reports helped the bulls in their endeavor to keep the “gain train” rolling, as a U.S. homebuilder sentiment report came in stronger than expected, Germany saw the first improvement in investor confidence this year, and Japan announced that it has delayed its second sales tax hike. Meanwhile, Treasuries traded modestly higher despite the housing data, which came ahead of a hotter-than-expected read on U.S. producer price inflation. News on the equity front was fairly light, as Dow member Home Depot’s warning that additional costs related to its data breach could impact future results overshadowed its better-than-expected 3Q results, while Urban Outfitters fell short of the Street’s forecasts. Gold finished higher, crude oil prices were mixed and the U.S. dollar was lower.

November 19, 2014

RALS NDR key takeaways

We just came back from 2 days NDR in HK and SG with Ramayana (RALS). The key questions are mostly on the supermarket revamp progress. Ramayana and SPAR appear to have completed their initial supermarket revamp, after identifying the main problem, which is the company has been ‘buying wrongly’. It has led to additional cost and loss of opportunity. It is now working to solve the problem by looking to hire experts, retrain the staff, refurbishing the warehouse, and re-arrange its purchasing. Along the way, the company target to revamp 56 of 90-95 supermarkets within the next 3 years and improve the yields and margins along the way.

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November 19, 2014
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