BMRI: 3Q14: NP +4% qoq; tracking our FY14e

BMRI 3Q14: NP +4% qoq; tracking our FY14e

Tracking our FY14e; Buy with TP of Rp12,900
Mandiri reported 3Q14 results with NP of Rp4.9tr (+4% qoq). This translates
into 9M14 NP of Rp14.5tr (+13% yoy), which tracks our FY14e NP of Rp12.1tr.
It implies B/S ROAE of 20.2% while CAR rose to 16.5%. The bank’s focus on
liquidity has resulted in a lower LDR of 86% (-170bps qoq; +80bps yoy), yet it
maintained a stable NIM of 5.8%. We expect NIM to remain elevated (if not
marginally higher in 4Q14). Asset quality has also been maintained with NPL at
2.2% (1.8% ex BSM). With liquidity in the system still tight, we see Mandiri
increasing its dominance in the banking industry and reiterate Buy.

Overall balance sheet remains healthy
Loans and deposits grew 12.4% yoy (+4.2% qoq) and 14.9% yoy (+6.3% qoq) –
implying LDR of 86% (-170bps qoq; -200bps yoy). Despite tight liquidity,
Mandiri maintains its high CASA at 61.2%. While special mention loans
showed an uptick to 4.4% (+30bps qoq; +60bps yoy), NPLs stabilised at 2.2%
(1.7% ex BSM), with coverage at 160%. Yet, restructured loans have declined.
CAR remains high at 16.5%.

Outlook: focusing on liquidity, asset quality and growth in infrastructure
Following the results, Mandiri maintains a loan growth target of 16-18% (bank
only). This is achievable but not easy, in our view (given YTD growth of 8%).
The impact on our earnings projections should be muted. In 2015, Mandiri will
begin its next transformation phase and the bank has set out a five-year plan
focused on growth in retail (micro, SME, individuals) and deepening client
relationships (corporate). It will also continue to invest in technology to further
enhance its franchises, saying that 40% of its IT spending will be focused on
areas such as relationship management and customer data architecture.

Still attractive; risks: higher NPL formation/CoF, slower loan growth
Despite strong 29% YTD share performance, Mandiri remains attractive at 2.0x
15F PBV (below its historical average). As such, we retain our Buy rating with a
TP of Rp12,900, using Dupont (15.7% CoC; see page 7 for details).

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October 24, 2014

Indonesia Property – Gaining momentum in 3Q14

—    Pre-sales growth in 3Q14 gained momentum QoQ following the peaceful presidential election in 2Q14. There was significant pick-up in demand for industrial land.

—    We expect slower new project launches in 4Q14 as most developers will just try to meet their FY14 pre-sales target.

—    Keep UNDERWEIGHT on residential property sector as we expect high-interest rate environment to persist to FY15F. Prefer industrial estate segment. Top BUYS: BEST, BSDE and SMRA.

 

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October 24, 2014

Rekap Laba (-Rugi) Emiten 1H14 vs 1H13 update per 25 Juli

Rekap Laba (-Rugi) Emiten 1H14 vs 1H13 update per 25 Juli:

»» Bank & Finance
• BMRI Rp9,58t vs Rp8,29t
• BBRI Rp11,7t vs Rp10,1t
• BBCA Rp7,85t vs Rp6,32t
• BBNI Rp4,94t vs Rp4,28t
• BBTN Rp539m vs Rp673m
• BDMN Rp1,49t vs Rp1,98t
• BNGA Rp1,95t vs Rp2,13t
• BNLI Rp800m vs Rp818m
• PNBN Rp1,43t vs Rp1,18t
• BBKP Rp516m vs Rp502m
• MEGA Rp502m vs Rp245m
• NISP Rp632m vs Rp536m
• BJBR Rp478m vs Rp747m
• BJTM Rp543m vs Rp428m
• BTPN Rp996m vs Rp1,10t
• BVIC Rp95,8m vs Rp139m
• AGRO Rp30,2m vs Rp24,6m
• CFIN Rp204m vs Rp190m
• LPPS Rp166m vs Rp259m
• BCIC Rp15,6m vs -Rp601m
• BABP -Rp19,8m vs -Rp0,96m
• PNLF Rp743m vs Rp606m
• PNIN Rp499m vs Rp409m
• BCAP Rp16,8m vs Rp45,2m
• NOBU Rp4,93m vs Rp3,37m

»» Infrastructure Related
• SMGR Rp2,82t vs Rp2,58t
• SMBR Rp123m vs Rp122m
• JSMR Rp811m vs Rp761m
• CMNP Rp206m vs Rp204m
• INTP Rp2,51t vs Rp2,42t
• SMCB Rp449m vs Rp467m

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October 24, 2014

TINS masuk bisnis di bidang properti dengan membangun kawasan mixed use di Bekasi, di lahan 176 HA

PT Timah (TINS) masuk bisnis di bidang properti dengan membangun kawasan mixed use di Bekasi, di lahan 176 HA. Sebagai kontraktor yakni PT Adhi Karya (ADHI) dan PT Wijaya Karya (WIKA). Perseroan memperkirakan laba bersih 3Q14 naik 70% (yoy) karena didukung peningkatan penjualan dan produksi.

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October 24, 2014

UNILEVER INDONESIA RAIH LABA Rp4,04 TRILIUN PER SEPTEMBER

PT Unilever Indonesia Tbk (UNVR) meraih laba yang dapat didistribusikan kepada pemilik entitas induk yang Rp4,04 triliun hingga September 2014 turun tipis dibandingkan periode laba tahun sebelumnya yang Rp4,09 triliun.

Laporan keuangan perseroan menyebutkan laba per saham turun jadi Rp531 dari Rp536 per saham dan penjualan bersih naik jadi Rp26,09 triliun dari penjualan bersih tahun sebelumnya yang Rp23,02 triliun.

Harga pokok penjualan naik jadi Rp13,35 triliun dari HPP tahun sebelumnya yang Rp11,20 triliun dan laba bruto naik jadi Rp12,73 triliun dari laba bruto tahun sebelumnya Rp11,82 triliun.

Laba usaha turun tipis jadi Rp5,48 triliun dari laba usaha tahun sebelumnya yang Rp5,49 triliun sedangkan laba sebelum pajak turun jadi Rp5,42 triliun dari laba sebelum pajak tahun sebelumnya Rp5,46 triliun.

Jumlah aset per September 2014 naik jadi Rp15,17 triliun dibandingkan jumlah per Desember 2013 yang Rp13,34 triliun.

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October 24, 2014

PMI Eropa Manufaktur Oktober 2014 naik ke 50.7 dari 50.3, dan lebih baik dr konsensus 49.9

PMI Eropa Manufaktur Oktober 2014 naik ke 50.7 dari 50.3, dan lebih baik dr konsensus 49.9. Kenaikan PMI ini didorong oleh aktivitas pabrik German naik ke level 51.8 dari 49.9. Berita positif ini menyusul berita positif HSBC PMI Manufaktur China bulan Oktober 50.4 melebihi konsensus 50,2 dan bulan sebelumnya 50.2.

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October 23, 2014

1st SESSION JCI on 23.10.2014 (By: D’ORIGIN – Veni Fitriani)

IHSG @5087.25 (+12.93pts) (+0.25%)
(H: 5093.15 ; L: 5069.24)
Value: 2.458 T (NG 540 B )….!!!
Volume: 23.144 M Lot (NG 3.852 M Lot)
Foreign Nett Sell 16.05 B
Incl.Crossing:
ASII @6525 ~ 131.16 B (F vs F)
Foreign Value 48.0%

*BUY (Regular)
F Buy 755.1 B
D Buy 1162.6 B
*SELL (Regular)
F Sell 728.7 B
D Sell 1189.0 B

USD/IDR:…..!!!
JISDOR: 12,026/12,034
NDF:       12,013/12,038

JCI for today:
Support: 5055, 5025
Resist:    5100, 5130

6 MARKETs DRIVEN BY SECTOR
FINANCE (+0.53%) (665.47 B )…!!!
TRADE.  (+0.08%) (475.83 B )
MANUFACT (+0.05%) (433.55 B )
PROPERTY (+0.37%) (323.10 B )
MINING (+0.86%) (257.69 B )…!!!
INFRA.  (+0.06%) (192.71 B )…!!!

7 NETT BUY STOCKs BY FOREIGNERs
BBCA @13114 (30.44 B )
LPKR @1052. (15.35 B )
TLKM @2874 (13.50 B )
UNTR @1792. (9.75 B )
BBRI.   @10802 (8.82 B )
ADRO @1053.   (8.56 B )
UNVR @32068 (7.66 B )

7 NETT SELL STOCKs BY FOREIGNERs
JSMR @6164 (39.35 B )
INDF.   @6749 (17.50 B )
AALI.  @19637 (10.75 B )
BMRI. @10137 (7.98 B )
PTPP. @2469 (4.61 B )
HRUM @1643 (3.41 B )
ACES @808.   (3.31 B )

8 MOST ACTIVE STOCKs BY VALUE
BBRI.   @10800(+0.70%)
BMRI.  @10125(+0.25%)
BBCA. @13125(+0.77%)
MPPA @3220 (+1.10%)
LPKR. @1055. (+0.96%)
SSMS @1165. (+2.19%)
UNTR @17725 (+1.43%)
ADRO @160.   (+2.91%)

8 MOST ACTIVE STOCKs BY VOLUME
BUMI.  @141 (2.269.976 lot)
BKSL @91.   (1.478.993 lot)
ENRG @100 (1.006.203 lot)
META @195 (780.515 lot)
SIAP.  @167 (761.352 lot)
TARA@415 (710.507 lot)
LPKR. @1055 (697.908 lot)
SUGI.  @426 (570.227 lot)

“…Have a great Lunch…”

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October 23, 2014

Akuisisi BCIC oleh perusahaan keuangan Jepang, J Trust Co LTd hampir selesai setelah mendapatkan ijin dari Lembaga Penjamin Simpanan (LPS) yang memiliki saham mayoritas di perusahaan

Akuisisi PT Bank Mutiara Tbk (BCIC) oleh perusahaan keuangan Jepang, J Trust Co LTd hampir selesai setelah mendapatkan ijin dari Lembaga Penjamin Simpanan (LPS) yang memiliki saham mayoritas di perusahaan. Selanjutnya, J Trust akan menjalani fit and proper test yang dilakukan oleh Otoritas Jasa Keuangan (OJK).

Secara resmi, kesepakatan diharapkan dapat tuntas sebelum 20 November 2014. Perusahaan ini dibebaskan dari ketentuan Bank Indonesia tahun 2012 tentang batas baru 40% pemegang saham institusional. Meskipun tidak ada informasi resmi mengenai harga akuisisi, sumber Jakarta Post mengatakan nilainya antara tiga sampai empat kali dari nilai buku Bank Mutiara.

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October 23, 2014

Indonesia coal mining companies are among the lowest cost coal producers in the world

● Indonesia coal mining companies are among the lowest cost coal producers in the world. Most of them were still above the water in 2Q14. However, as coal price continues to fall, we did some study on which companies would still make money. Our study showed that Bukit Asam, Adaro, and Indotambang are amongst those who would remain profitable at the current coal price level.

● The decline in oil price has helped miners to reduce cost, as they operate open pit mining in which mining cost accounts for around 50% of the total cost, and 40% of which is fuel related.

● Despite having a lower fuel cost, the strip ratio will have to increase as operating in a low strip ratio is not sustainble long term. In relation to contractors, the risk would be more on lower volume as miners would prefer to cut output if they are no longer profitable.

● Our preferred coal names remain Bukit Asam and Adaro. Apart from having low cost structure, they are also exposed to the power plant projects which would ensure future earnings. United Tractors has strong client base, their clients are amongst those which remain profitable in the current coal price environment

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October 23, 2014

MEA : Pasar Bebas, Sektor Makanan Jadi Andalan Jokowi

Pasar bebas ASEAN akan segera tiba. Sektor food and beverages (makanan olahan) diperkirakan akan menjadi besar pada pemerintahan Presiden Joko Widodo (Jokowi). Sektor ini juga bisa menjadi andalan Indonesia dalam menghadapi Masyarakat Ekonomi ASEAN (MEA) tersebut.

Ekonom Bank Negara Indonesia (BNI) Ryan Kiryanto meminta, kepada Jokowi untuk menyiapkan dan mengembangkan sektor ini. Pasalnya, ke depan persaingan semakin ketat.

“Sektor food and beverages, makanan atau kuliner akan menjadi luar biasa. Ini sektor akan booming karena sepanjang kita punya mulut kita akan shopping makanan,” ucap Ryan dalam diskusi media bertajuk Tantangan dan Peluang Indonesia Manghadapi MEA 2015 di Wisma Nusantara, Jakarta, Rabu (22/10/2014).

Ryan menambahkan, selain itu sektor lainnya adalah mengembangkan industri kreatif. Hal ini tentu dapat bersaing dengan negara-negara lain yang sudah mempersiapkan MEA 2015.

“Kemudian itu industri kreatif. Pak Jokowi kan juga sudah janji akan memajukan industri kreatif Indonesia,” imbuhnya.

October 23, 2014

BBRI : Kuartal III-2014, Laba Bersih BBRI Rp18,12 Triliun

PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero), Tbk (BBRI) mencatatkan perolehan laba bersih pada kuartal III-2014 sebesar Rp18,12 triliun atau meningkat 19% bila dibandingkan dengan periode yang sama pada 2013 lalu, yakni sebesar Rp15,23 triliun.

Direktur Kepatuhan BBRI Randi Anto mengatakan, pertumbuhan laba bersih ini telah menghasilkan earning per share (EPS) sebesar Rp979,7 atau lebih besar dari angka di periode yang sama tahun lalu yakni Rp823. Peningkatan laba bersih tersebut ditopang oleh kenaikan penyaluran kredit yang terjadi seluruh segmen bisnis.

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October 23, 2014

U.S. stocks turned lower on Wednesday, following the S&P 500’s biggest jump in a year, as investors considered the fatal shooting of a soldier in Ottawa, reports of gunfire in the halls of Canada’s Parliament and oil falling to a more-than two-year low

Good morning,

U.S. stocks turned lower on Wednesday, following the S&P 500’s biggest jump in a year, as investors considered the fatal shooting of a soldier in Ottawa, reports of gunfire in the halls of Canada’s Parliament and oil falling to a more-than two-year low.

Dow………16461  -153.5  -0.92% 
Nasdaq……4383  -36.6    -0.83% 
S&P 500…..1927  -14.2    -0.73%

FTSE……….6400 +27.4  +0.43% 
DAX………..8940 +53.2  +0.60% 
CAC………..4105  +23.9 +0.58%

Nikkei……15196  +391.5 +2.64%
HSI……….23404  +315.4 +1.37% 
Shanghai…2326   -13.3    -0.57% 
ST Times…3203  +21.7   +0.68%  

Indo10Yr. 8.134    -0.056  -0.68%
US10Yr….2.23%  +0.02   +0.95% 

VIX………17.87   +1.79    +11.13% 

USD Index…85.75 +0.37   +0.43% 
DJUSCL…..103.72   -2.64     -2.51% 
(Dow Jones US Coal Index) 
IndoCDS…153.25   -2.165   -1.39% 
(5-yr INOCD5) 

IDR…12013.5 +12.5 +0.12%(Blmbrg)  
Jisdor…… 12026  +33       +0.27%
Euro……..1.2645  -0.0069  -0.54%

TLKM..47.72 -0.06 -0.13%Rp2869
ARMS Plc….50.50  -1.00  -1.94% 
EIDO……… 27.43   -0.19  -0.65%
EEM………. 40.74   -0.27  -0.66% 

Oil………….80.52   -2.29  -2.76% 
Gold ……1241.89  -7.46  -0.60% 
Timah…….19500  +50   +0.26%
Nickel…….15210   -90     -0.59% 
Coal……….64.30   -1.15  -1.79%
CPO………..2143   closed+0% 
Corn……..353.00   -3.00  -0.84% 
SoybeanOil.32.14 +0.38 +1.20% 
Wheat……522.25  +3.00 +0.58% 

(DE/ls- 23-10-14) 

******

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October 23, 2014

WSKT mencatat proyek baru pada 3Q14 sebesar Rp12T

PT Waskita Karya (WSKT) mencatat proyek baru pada 3Q14 sebesar Rp12T. Laba diperkirakan meningkat 10% hingga September sehingga akhir tahun mencapai Rp450M, naik 22% (yoy). Perseroan akan mengerjakan proyek konstruksi tol Becakayu (Bekasi, Cawang, dan Kampung Melayu) dengan nilai Rp4,5T.

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October 23, 2014

SMGR : Semen Indonesia Mulai Garap Proyek Pembangkit Listrik WHRPG

PT Semen Indonesia (Persero) Tbk memulai pembangunan pembangkit listrik dengan memanfaatkan gas buang (Waste Heat Recovery Power Generation/WHRPG) pabrik Tuban I-IV dengan kapasitas 30,6 MW.

Proyek WHRPG ini merupakan Kerjasama antara Semen Indonesia dengan JFE Engineering Jepang. Proyek dengan investasi sebesar Rp638 miliar tersebut pada hari ini dilakukan groundbreaking oleh Direktur Utama Semen Indonesia, Dwi Soetjipto di Pabrik Tuban.

“Proyek WHRPG di pabrik Tuban akan dibangun di pabrik Tuban I, Tuban 2, Tuban 3 dan Tuban 4. Sehingga proyek ini merupakan pertama kalinya di Indonesia dalam satu area seluruh panas buang dimanfaatkan sebagai sumber pembangkit listrik. Penggunaan teknologi ini merupakan yang kedua di Perseroan setelah sebelumnya dibangun di pabrik Indarung Padang dengan kapasitas 8,5 MW dan sudah beroperasi pada tahun 2011,” kata Dwi, dalam rilis yang dipublikasi perseroan, di Jakarta.

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October 23, 2014

AMRT siap ekspansi senilai Rp 2 triliun

PT Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk (AMRT) masih akan melanjutkan ekspansi pembangunan gerai baru di tahun depan. Perseroan berencana membuka 1.000-1.200 gerai Alfamart baru, termasuk beberapa pusat distribusi. Tomin Widian, Direktur dan Sekretaris Perusahaan AMRT mengatakan, untuk ekspansi itu, perseroan menyiapkan dana belanja modal sekitar Rp 1,8 triliun hingga Rp 2 triliun.

Jumlah dana itu tak jauh berbeda dari belanja modal tahun ini. Pasalnya AMRT tak bisa terlalu ekspansif membuka gerai. “Persaingan sudah semakin ketat sehingga, kami ekspansi secara stabil saja,” ujarnya di Tangerang, Rabu (22/10).

AMRT tetap akan berekspansi di dalam dan luar Pulau Jawa. Tomin bilang, dana belanja modal itu akan berasal dari dana kas internal dan sebagian dari pinjaman perbankan. Biasanya, setiap gerai membutuhkan dana sebesar Rp 900 juta – Rp 1 miliar dan setiap pusat distribusi membutuhkan dana sebesar Rp 60 miliar.

Hingga bulan Juni 2014, AMRT sudah membuka 630 gerai Alfamart yang menelan dana investasi sebesar Rp 900 miliar. Dengan tambahan 1.200 gerai, hingga akhir tahun ini perseroan akan mengoperasikan sekitar 9.757 gerai. Dus di tahun depan, total gerai AMRT diharapkan bisa mencapai 10.957 gerai.

AMRT juga banyak berharap dari anak usahanya, PT Midi Utama Indonesia Tbk (MIDI). Seperti diketahui, AMRT akan menambah saham MIDI sebesar 864,7 juta saham setara dengan 30% saham MIDI. Perseroan akan membeli MIDI dari pemegang saham lainnya, Lawson Asia Pasific Holdings Pte. Ltd.

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October 23, 2014

BBTN: Andalkan Bisnis Wealth Management Keruk Fee Based

PT Bank Tabungan Negara (Persero) Tbk (BTN) menjadikan bisnis wealth management sebagai salah satu mesin penggerak pendapatan berbasis biaya (fee based income). Salah satunya dengan mendorong kinerja bisnis bancassurance bekerja sama dengan perusahaan asuransi.

“Kami akan terus berupaya untuk menjadikan multi produk yang dikelola oleh wealth management BTN dapat menjadi motor dalam meningkatkan perolehan fee based income,” tutur Direktur Utama BTN, Maryono, di Menara BTN, Jakarta, Rabu, 22 Oktober 2014.

Salah satu produk yang bisa ditawarkan dalam bisnis wealth management BTN adalah produk-produk asuransi, melalui kerja sama dengan beberapa perusahaan asuransi. Secara khusus, perseroan menggandeng tiga perusahaan asuransi jiwa untuk mendorong kinerja bancassurance.

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October 23, 2014

APLN siap ekspansi bermodal lahan 970 ha

PT Agung Podomoro Land Tbk (APLN) masih punya ruang untuk berkembang. Emiten properti ini mengklaim memiliki landbank seluas 970 hektare.

Lahan terbesar yang APLN miliki adalah di Karawang sekitar 600 sampai 700 hektar. Kemudian, sisanya yakni di Medan, Balikpapan, Jakarta, dan lain-lain. Ke depannya, APLN pun terus mengincar akuisisi lahan baru.

“Negosiasi terus berjalan,” ucap Wibisono, Investor Relation APLN, kepada KONTAN, Rabu (22/10).

Agustus lalu, APLN baru mengakuisisi lahan seluas 9,5 hektar di Klender, Jakarta Timur. Pengambilan lahan tersebut dilakukan melalui pencaplokan 85% PT Graha Cipta Kharisma. Nah, akuisisi tersebut memiliki nilai Rp 305 miliar.

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October 23, 2014

RATING : Japan Credit Rating Agency Sematkan Indonesia Outlook Stabil

MAKROEKONOMI :

RATING : Japan Credit Rating Agency Sematkan Indonesia Outlook Stabil

Japan Credit Rating Agency, Ltd. (JCR) melakukan afirmasi Sovereign Credit Rating Republik Indonesia pada BBB-/stable outlook. JCR menyampaikan beberapa faktor kunci yang mendukung afirmasi Sovereign Credit Rating Indonesia tersebut, yakni pertumbuhan ekonomi yang kuat, pengelolaan fiskal dan sistem perbankan yang sehat, serta ketahanan perekonomian terhadap tekanan eksternal.

Di sisi lain, faktor-faktor yang dinilai menjadi risiko bagi Sovereign Credit Rating Indonesia antara lain ketergantungan pada komoditas sumber daya alam, defisit neraca berjalan dan aliran investasi yang fluktuatif, tingginya subsidi BBM, ketertinggalan infrastruktur dan pasar keuangan yang belum berkembang.

Dalam keterangan pers-nya, seperti dilansir Bank Indonesia (BI), di Jakarta, Rabu, 22 Oktober 2014, JCR mencatat respon kebijakan dari otoritas dalam rangka memastikan stabilitas ekonomi dalam menghadapi guncangan eksternal. JCR menyatakan bahwa terdapat indikasi bahwa pemerintahan baru akan menerapkan kebijakan pengurangan subsidi BBM dan percepatan pembangunan infrastruktur. Kebijakan-kebijakan tersebut dinilai dapat mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia dalam jangka menengah-panjang.

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October 23, 2014

Australia says wins China coal tariff exemption in free trade pact

Australia says wins China coal tariff exemption in free trade pact

* Coal import tariffs stay in effect until trade deal is signed
* Australia coal industry expects pact to be signed in Nov
* Nearly $8 billion in coal exports at stake

MELBOURNE, Oct 22 (Reuters) – Australian coal will be exempt from controversial new import tariffs imposed by China when the two countries sign a free trade pact, Treasurer Joe Hockey said after a meeting in China, although the timing of a deal has yet to be finalised.

Australia and China are trying to seal a free trade agreement (FTA) before the end of this year after nearly 10 years of negotiations, in a bid to boost two-way trade already worth more than A$150 billion ($132 billion).

Amid the talks, Beijing stunned Australia this month by imposing a 3 percent tariff on coal used in steel mills and 6 percent tariff on coal used in power stations, hitting A$9 billion ($7.9 billion) worth of exports from Australian miners already reeling from a slump in prices.

“Once we have an FTA, it will be abolished. The quicker we get an FTA, the quicker the tariffs will go,” Hockey said after meeting Chinese Finance Minister Lou Jiwei in Beijing on Tuesday.

“The immediate elimination of tariffs on Australian coal exports is a key objective for the sector and we understand the Minister for Trade Andrew Robb will be seeking to secure that outcome as negotiations come to a conclusion over the next month,” the Minerals Council of Australia’s coal director Greg Evans said in an emailed statement.

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October 23, 2014

BERITA EMITEN 23 Oct 2014

BERITA EMITEN :

Berikut 10 saham penguat IHSG sepanjang 2014

Saham PT Bank Central Asia Tbk (BBCA) menjadi penopang kenaikan IHSG tertinggi sepanjang 2014. Saham bank dengan aset terbesar ketiga di Tanah Air ini melonjak sekitar 35,7% secara year-to-date (ytd).

Pada penutupan hari ini, saham BBCA menguat 2,16% ke level Rp 13.025 per saham. Mengutip data Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI), bobot kenaikan saham BBCA terhadap IHSG sebesar 94,8 poin.

Berikut 10 besar saham penopang kenaikan IHSG sepanjang 2014:

1. BBCA

2. PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk (TLKM)

3. PT Bank Mandiri Tbk (BMRI)

4. PT Unilever Indonesia Tbk (UNVR)

5. PT Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk (BBNI)

6. PT Gudang Garam Tbk (GGRM)

7. PT Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk (PGAS)

8. PT Kalbe Farma Tbk (KLBF)

9. PT Tower Bersama Infrastructure Tbk (TBIG)

10. PT Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa Tbk (INTP)

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October 23, 2014

CTRA : Ciputra bangun kota mandiri pertama di Kalsel

Salah satu proyek terbesar PT Ciputra Development (CTRA) di Banjarmasin, Kalimantan Selatan terletak di Kota Banjarbaru. Proyek kota mandiri CitraMitra City Banjarbaru yang dibangun di atas lahan 200 hektare (ha) ini merupakan kerja sama antara Ciputra dengan Mitra Group.

Pengembangan skala kota yang terdiri dari perumahan, komersial area, mall, bisnis dan perkantoran serta waterpark ini sudah mulai melakukan pre-sales pada awal tahun 2014 lalu. “Tahap I itu pembangunan 500 unit dan targetnya di akhir tahun bisa sampai 600 unit,” kata Rudy Andreas, Head of Marketing CitraMitra City Banjarmasin.

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October 23, 2014

Modest Gains as Earnings Continue to Pour In

The U.S. equity markets are trading slightly to the upside, following another benign domestic inflation report, as well as stronger-than-expected profit reports from Dow member Boeing, Yahoo, Dow Chemical and Broadcom. Treasuries are nearly unchanged following the inflation data, which was accompanied by a jump in U.S. weekly mortgage applications. Elsewhere, gold is lower, while the U.S dollar and crude oil prices are higher. Overseas, Asian stocks finished mostly to the upside following the solid gains in the U.S. and Europe yesterday, led by a rally in Japan. Finally, European equities are higher as speculation regarding asset purchases by the European Central Bank continues.

October 22, 2014

ISAT berencana membayar kompensasi Rp1,3 triliun kepada pemerintah untuk penyalahgunaan High Speed Downlink Packing akses jaringan (HSDPA)

PT Indosat Tbk (ISAT) berencana membayar kompensasi Rp1,3 triliun kepada pemerintah untuk penyalahgunaan High Speed Downlink Packing akses jaringan (HSDPA). Rincian tentang mekanisme pembayaran tersebut saat ini sedang dinegosiasikan.

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October 22, 2014

SMGR berencana membangun pabrik semen dengan kapasitas maks 3 juta ton/ tahun di Aceh mulai tahun 2016

PT Semen Indonesia Tbk (SMGR) berencana membangun pabrik semen dengan kapasitas maks 3 juta ton/ tahun di Aceh mulai tahun 2016. Biaya investasi pembangunan tersebut akan mencapai Rp3,84 triliun.

Pabrik semen baru ini memungkinkan distribusi semen ke Aceh, Riau dan lain-lain. Sementara itu, SMGR memutuskan untuk menaikkan harga jual semen sebesar Rp15.000-Rp20.000 per ton pada bulan Oktober karena biaya produksi meningkat.

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October 22, 2014

MDRN telah melepas 10% saham baru kepada CIMB Private Equity senilai US$25 juta melalui aksi penambahan modal tanpa hak memesan efek terlebih dahulu

PT Modern Internasional Tbk (MDRN) telah melepas 10% saham baru kepada CIMB Private Equity senilai US$25 juta melalui aksi penambahan modal tanpa hak memesan efek terlebih dahulu. Penambahan modal tersebut dilakukan untuk mendukung ekspansi anak usaha MDRN, yaitu PT Modern Sevel Indonesia, selaku pemegang franchise 7-Eleven di Indonesia. Saat ini, 7-Eleven telah memiliki 175 outlet yang tersebar di wilayah DKI Jakarta.

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October 22, 2014

IDR – Tactically constructive

Jokowi takes office as Indonesia’s 7th President today, and we believe this
event should be traded. We turned neutral (from bearish) on USD/IDR late last
month, and now recommend turning tactically constructive for four reasons.

1. Political risk premium should compress, with potential positive catalysts this
week. Since the July election, markets have absorbed a stream of negative
political headlines from Prabowo’s Constitutional Court challenge, Jokowi’s
coalition paralysis, the direct election bill scare, the loss of parliamentary
speaker posts to the opposition, and even fears of impeachment. A lot of bad
news we feel is now in the price. And the news itself could be getting more
constructive. On Friday, in a surprise move, Prabowo finally acknowledged
Jokowi’s victory, and even announced conditional support of his coalition. PPP
has meanwhile officially joined Jokowi’s coalition, bringing his strength in
Parliament to 44% of seats, comparable to the opposition’s 45% (Chart 1).
Jokowi will announce his Cabinet this week, having promised that 18 out of 33
ministerial posts will go to professionals. The appointment of credible
technocrats, particularly in the economic ministries, would be a significant
market positive. With political sentiment improving there is again scope for
IDR to outperform Asian FX, as it did during earlier periods of political positivity
this year (Chart 2).

2. Valuations and levels look appealing. USD/IDR is sitting near post-crisis
highs, and resisted breaking higher during recent market turmoil. This is in
sharp contrast to USD/INR, which was trading 15% below its highs the day PM
Modi took power. IDR is also undervalued by over 5% on three out of the four
models we track (Chart 3). The exception is our FEER model, which signals the
FX adjustment required to return Indonesia’s sticky current account deficit to
healthier long-term average levels. Although FEER still shows a large
overvaluation, this model’s signal too could soften.

3. Indonesia’s oil trade balance is slated to improve. The combination of a
sharp drop in global oil prices, and an imminent fuel-price hike, could finally
turn the stubborn current account deficit. Over a third of Indonesia’s trade
account deterioration since end-2010 has been because of worsening in the oil
balance (Chart 4). The oil deficit has been sticky in the face of FX depreciation
and slower growth, and has coincided with a ballooning in the fuel subsidy.
However, the subsidy could soon shrink back to healthier 2010 levels. Based
on a simple relationship, a Rp2000 price hike could now be consistent with a
$1.2bn/month improvement in the trade balance, or a 1.5% of GDP
improvement in the current account (Chart 5). Recent media reports (Reuters)
indicate that Jokowi is still considering a hike of up to Rp3000/liter in the next
two weeks.

4. The recent repricing of the Fed gives more space to deficit-carry currencies
like IDR. Global long-end yields are set to remain low for the near future,
removing one of the biggest threats to EM carry, and helping to anchor
existing offshore debt money in markets like Indonesia (Chart 6). Note also that
onshore debt supply is running out for the year.

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October 22, 2014

Banking: August 2014 data – loan growth slowing, NPL rising

Di saat total kredit menunjukkan tren perlambatan, +14% YoY, kredit bermasalah naik lagi menjadi 2,31% pada Agustus vs 2,24% pada Juli.

Mandiri Sekuritas memprediksi pertumbuhan kredit tumbuh <15% pada 2014 dengan potensi adanya kenaikan kredit tidak lancar (NPL) dalam beberapa bulan ke depan sebelum perbankan mulai membersihkan portofolionya pada akhir tahun.

Kami masih tetap NEUTRAL pada sektor perbankan dengan saham PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia Tbk (BBRI) sebagai top pick kami.

***

Loan growth slided further to 14.0% YoY in August. Bulan ini menjadi bulan kesebelas total kredit dibukukan tumbuh lebih rendah daripada bulan sebelumnya. Dengan faktor adanya depresiasi rupiah sebesar 7% dalam setahun terakhir, pertumbuhan kredit industri hanya dibukukan 12,8% YoY jika menggunakan asumsi nilai tukar yang sama dengan posisi setahun yang lalu.

Kredit modal kerja naik 14,4% YoY, kredit investasi tumbuh 17,6%, dan kredit konsumsi 10,6%. Di antara seluruh pulau, kredit di Sumatra, Kalimantan, dan Sulawesi masih tetap lemah, dibukukan lebih rendah daripada pertumbuhan 10% YoY, sedangkan Jawa & Bali membukukan pertumbuhan kredit 14,8% YoY.

Di antara perbankan, bank non-devisa membukukan pertumbuhan kredit yang lebih tinggi yaitu 17% YoY sedangkan bank patungan memprediksi kredit mereka berkontraksi 2% YoY.

Di antara industri utama (berporsi >5% dari total kredit), kredit agrikultur & hutan membukukan pertumbuhan 26% YoY, transportasi, pabrik, & komunikasi 21%, industri pemrosesan 17%, rumah tangga 15% (di antaranya rumah tapak 13% YoY), dan perdangangan serta grosir 14%.

Deposit growth improved to 12.1% YoY, LDR declined to 90.7% in August. Sebagian besar pertumbuhan dibukukan oleh deposito berjangka yang tumbuh hampir 20% YoY sedangkan CASA naik 6% YoY. Kondisi itu membentuk penurunan rasio kredit terhadap DPK (LDR) menjadi 90,7% dari 92,3% pada Juli.

Kalimantan masih tetap menjadi daerah yang paling lemah untuk posisi DPK, tumbuh 5,8% YoY sedangkan kawasan Timur Indonesia (KTI) dibukukan tinggi yaitu 17,8% YoY.

NPL rose in the second month to 2.31% in August. NPL tumbuh 36% YoY menjadi Rp80,7 triliun dengan posisi kenaikan NPL untuk bulan kedua menjadi sebesar 2,31% dari 2,24% pada Juli. Yang kontras, kredit Kategori 2 turun menjadi 4,5% pada Agustus dari 4,9% pada Juli.

NPL pada kredit investasi membukukan penurunan paling tajam yaitu menjadi 2,58% dari 2,37%. Berdasarkan tipe bank, semua bank lokal di luar bank asing membukukan kenaikan NPL. Berdasarkan daerah, NPL Kalimantan dan KTI justru memiliki NPL yang membaik dan daerah lain membukukan penurunan kualitas aset.

Berdasarkan industri, NPL sektor konstruksi masih naik menjadi 4,6% dari 4,41% (tertinggi di antara industri lain) sedangkan di sektor tambang turun menjadi 2,47% dari 3,09%. NPL di sektor perdagangan grosir dan ritel naik menjadi 3,27% (3,18%), dan di sektor pelaynanan umum naik menjadi 3,87% (dari 3,73%).

Interest rates were adjusted down again. Meskipun ada kenaikan suku bunga deposito sebesar 233bps menjadi 8,46% untuk tenor 1 bulan dan 324bps menjadi 9,52% untuk tenor 3 bulan, rerata suku bunga sudah turun pada Agustus, terutama di bank swasta nasional.

Rerata suku bunga untuk kredit modal kerja turun 16bps menjadi 12,54%, untuk kredit investasi turun 15bps menjadi 12,17%, sedangkan kredit konsumsi turun 1bps menjadi 13,31%. Rerata bunga deposito tenor 1 bulan naik 2bps menjadi 8,46%. Rerata bunga deposito tenor 1 bulan dan 3 bulan sudah naik masing-masing sebesar 233bps dan 324bps dalam 12 bulan terakhir.

Maintain Neutral on banks. Kami memprediksi industri akan menghadapi pertumbuhan kredit yang melambat dan kualitas aset yang menurun.

Indikasinya terlihat dari permintaan kredit yang tidak sejalan dengan ekspektasi dan meskipun Mandiri Sekuritas memprediksi pertumbuhan kredit industri naik <15% pada 2014 sedangkan NPL naik dalam beberapa bulan ke depan sebelum sebelum adanya write off dalam jumlah besar pada Desember.

Kami masih menetapkan kembali rekomendasi NEUTRAL pada sektor perbankan dengan BBRI sebagai pilihan utama dengan TP Rp13.000.

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October 22, 2014

WTON: CLT Acquisition a Possible Boost To Growth

We visited CLT recently, which Wijaya Karya Beton (WTON) acquired 90% of on 10 Sep. Note that, at the same time, its parent Wijaya Karya (WIKA) also acquired the remaining 10%. Total acquisition value was USD23.5m. Currently, CLT has an annual design capacity of 100,000 tonnes of spun pile precast, while its used capacity is ~50,000 tonnes per year.
¨ A positive move. We view the acquisition as a very positive move by Wika Karya Beton. PT Citra Lautan Teduh (CLT), situated on a 27.5ha site, is a private company with no competitors in Batam, Indonesia, and its surrounding areas. It produces pre-tensioned spun concrete piles, is strategically located near the offshore area and is already equipped with its own jetty that is able to facilitate vessels with a loading capacity of up to 8,000 deadweight tonnage (DWT). The majority of its shipments are transported via sea, which is cheaper vis-à-vis land transportation.
¨ Expansion strategy. Post-acquisition, CLT’s management was restructured to ensure greater operational efficiency that is comparable to its parent company. CLT plans to build an additional production plant with 45,000 tonnes by 2015 and targets to have five production plants with total estimated capacity to reach 300,000 tonnes by 2018. This ought to fulfil the demand stemming from Batam Island and the surrounding areas. Management also said that Batam’s local government have plans for major projects starting in 2015, eg flyovers, toll roads, island-connecting bridges and potential mass rapid transit (MRT) projects.
¨ Extending sales scope. Currently, CLT is catering to demand from Batam and nearby islands. With the additional capacity in 2015, management is targeting to penetrate the Malaysian market, starting from Johor Bahru onwards. It also plans to meet demand for the development of the 328ha Funtasy Island in Bintan, Riau, which, according to the project owners, is targeted to rival Universal Studios in Singapore by 2017. CLT also maintains close ties with its partners and local authorities in order to educate them about the more efficient precast products vis-à-vis conventional bore-pile products and methods. CLT’s management is projecting a FY15 revenue at IDR150bn.

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October 22, 2014

August 2014 data – loan growth slowing, NPL rising

While total loans showed declining trend, growing at 14% y-y, problem loans started to rise again to 2.31% in August vs. 2.24% in July. We expect loan growth at <15% in 2014 with NPL rising in the coming months before banks started to clean them up at the yearend. Maintain Neutral on banks with BRI as our top pick.

Loan growth slided further to 14.0% y-y in August. This is the eleventh month total loans reported lower growth rate than in the previous month. Factoring the 7% rupiah depreciation in the past one year, industry loan growth was only 12.8% y-y if we fix the exchange rate at the same level as one year ago. Working capital loans grew 14.4% y-y, investment loans 17.6% and consumption loans 10.6%. Among the islands, Sumatra, Kalimantan and Sulawesi remained weak, posting less than 10% y-y loan growth while Java & Bali saw 14.8% y-y loan growth. Among the banks, non-forex banks recorded the highest loan growth at 17% y-y while joint venture banks saw their loans contracting by 2% y-y. Among the major industries (accounting for >5% of total loans), loans to agriculture & forestry posted 26% y-y growth rate, transport , warehousing & communication 21%, processing industry 17%, household 15% (of which landed houses 13% y-y) and whole and trade 14%.

Deposit growth improved to 12.1% y-y, LDR declined to 90.7% in August. Most of the growth came from time deposits which grew almost 20% y-y while CASA deposits increased 6% y-y. This resulted in declining LDR level to 90.7% from 92.3% in July. Among the area, Kalimantan remained the weakest area for deposit taking, growing at 5.8% y-y while the the Eastern part of Indonesia the highest at 17.8% y-y.

NPL rose in the second month to 2.31% in August. NPL rose 36% y-y to Rp80.7tr with the NPL level rising again for the second month to 2.31% from 2.24% in July. In contrast, category 2 loans declined to 4.5% in August from 4.9% in July. NPL in investment loans saw the steepest decline to 2.58% from 2.37%. Among the bank types, all local banks except foreign owned banks saw their NPL increasing. Location wise, NPL in Kalimantan and the Eastern part of Indonesia saw improving NPL while the rest of the area experienced worsening assets quality. Based on industry, NPL in the construction industry kept increasing to 4.60% from 4.41% (the highest among industries) while in mining declined to 2.47% from 3.09%. NPL in wholesale & retail trade increased to 3.27% (3.18%) and in community services to 3.87% (3.73%).

Interest rates were adjusted down again. Despite the rising time deposit rates, which increased 233bps to 8.46% for 1M and 324bps to 9.52% for 3M, average lending rates were reduced in August, particularly in private national banks. Average lending rate for working capital loans declined 16bps to 12.54%, for investment loans down 15bps to 12.17% while for consumer loans reduced 1bp to 13.31%. Average 1M time deposit rates increased 2bps to 8.46%. Average 1M and 3M T/D rates have increased 233bps and 324bps in the past twelve months.

Maintain Neutral on banks. We expect the industry to see slower loan growth and deteriorating assets quality. Indication from banks is that loan demand has not been in line with expectations and hence we expect industry loan growth <15% in 2014 while NPL is likely to continue rising in the coming months before major write off in December. We keep our Neutral stance on banks with BRI as our top pick with TP of Rp13,000.

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October 22, 2014

Panin Sekuritas – 22 Okt 2014

Bursa Amerika kemarin ditutup meningkat didorong keluarnya kinerja keuangan emiten kuartal ketiga 2014 yang lebih baik dari ekspektasi. Sektor teknologi seperti Apple, Texas instruments dan United technologies mendorong pergerakan bursa global. Dow +1.31%; S&P +1.96%; Nasdaq +2.40%. Sedangkan bursa regional kemarin ditutup rata-rata meningkat.

KekhawatiranBank Sentral Eropa akan membeli obligasi perusahaan pada secondary markets bila program pembelian aset saat ini dinilai gagal untuk mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi zona Eropa. Kemarin data pertumbuhan PDB China 3Q14 7,3% yoy (vs 2Q14 7,5% yoy; cons: 7,2% yoy). Data industrial output Sept China +8% yoy. Sedangkan, retail sales dan fixed asset investment Sept China dibawah ekspektasi konsensus. Isu kekhawatiran Ebola membaik seiring berhasilnya beberapa negara yang sebelumnya terjangkiti menjadi bersih.  

Dari domestik, fokus investor domestik tertuju pada susunan kabinet pemerintahan Jokowi-JK yang akan diumumkan akhir minggu ini. Wapres Jusuf Kalla menyatakan pemerintah akan membangun pembangkit listrik sebesar 25MW pada 2015. Hasil stress test dari BI pada Okt 2014: sistem keuangan domestik memiliki daya tahan yang kuat menghadapi pembalikan modal asing. Rupiah pagi ini Rp12020. IHSG hari ini diperkirakan akan meningkat didorong dari sentiment positif bursa global. 
Trading: GIAA, WSKT, PWON, LPKR, BBCA, JSMR. Spekulasi: MLPL, META.
Panin Sekuritas

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October 22, 2014

LPKR: Marketing sales to the rescue?

 3Q14 marketing sales for LPKR could provide a respite, but we
are cautious on the outlook and expect moderation in growth

 Lower RNAV by 8% to IDR1,390 (from IDR1,517)

 Reiterate OW on valuation but lower TP by 17% to IDR1,250
(from IDR1,515) on lower RNAV and higher target discount

3Q14 marketing sales for LPKR could provide a respite, but we are cautious on the
outlook and expect moderation in growth: 3Q14 marketing sales for LPKR could offer a
respite after the large cut in core marketing sales (excluding asset sales to REITs) for FY14
announced earlier – recall, marketing sales were cut from cIDR6.8trn (set initially) to
cIDR4.7trn. Based on launches at Lippo Village and Lippo Cikarang, we estimate 3Q14
marketing sales could exceed IDR2trn (this excludes post-3Q14 sales of cIDR500bn at
Holland Village). LPKR’s 9M14 marketing sales could thus exceed IDR3.6trn – and
including Holland Village, year-to-date marketing sales could exceed IDR4.1trn, putting the
revised FY14 marketing sales figure well within reach. Despite this, we are cautious on the
outlook for Indonesia’s property sector, given the current regulatory and macro environment,
and expect moderation in growth. Therefore, we lower our assumed pace of launches and
growth over the next few years, resulting in a 9% cut in earnings estimates for FY14 and a
14% cut in earnings estimates for FY15. After the revisions, relative to Bloomberg consensus,
on earnings estimates, we are 3% higher FY14 and 9% higher for FY15.

Lower RNAV by 8% to IDR1,390 (from IDR1,517): We roll forward our RNAV
analysis to FY15 and raise our discount rate assumptions for the land valuation to 18%
(from 15%). This affects the valuation of LPKR’s land parcels held under Urban
Developments, as well as Large-Scale Integrated Developments. Accordingly, we lower
our RNAV estimate for LPKR by 8% to IDR1,390 (from IDR1,517).

Reiterate OW on valuation but lower TP by 17% to IDR1,250 (from IDR1,515) on
lower RNAV and higher target discount: Our TP for LPKR is based on our new RNAV
estimate, overlaid with our qualitative premium/discount framework. As we expect a more
moderate pace of RNAV expansion beyond FY15 under the current regulatory and macro
environment, we set our TP at a higher target discount of 10% to RNAV (vs. in line with
RNAV previously). Therefore, we lower our TP by 17% to IDR1,250 (from IDR1,515) and
reiterate our OW rating on valuation. LPKR is currently trading at 14.0x FY14 estimated
earnings with estimated FY14-15 EPS growth of 9.3%. As a potential catalyst, we note that
the recently proposed changes to Singapore’s REIT regulations, if implemented, would be a
positive for LPKR, as it would help LPKR fast track the recycling of its assets. We
introduce our 2016 estimates in this note.

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October 22, 2014

KKGI mengakuisisi kepemilikan saham PT Khatulistiwa Hidro Energi dari PT Bumi Raya Utama dan Hendro Martowardojo

PT Resources Alam Indonesia (KKGI) mengakuisisi kepemilikan saham PT Khatulistiwa Hidro Energi dari PT Bumi Raya Utama dan Hendro Martowardojo. PT Khatulistiwa Hidro Energi adalah pemegang 95% saham PT Bias Petrasia Persada, sebuah perusahaan yang bergerak di bidang PLTA.

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October 22, 2014

Polaris Ltd membatalkan rencana menambah kepemilikan saham di TRIO

Polaris Ltd membatalkan rencana menambah kepemilikan saham di PT Trikomsel Oke Tbk (TRIO), lewat pembelian 4,91% saham yang dipegang Asia Century Ventures Ltd dan 0,23% lainnya melalui mekanisme pasar. Dewan direksi Polaris dan Asia Century Ventures sepakat menghentikan penghentian jual beli saham tersebut karena adanya perubahan kondisi pasar. Awalnya, Polaris akan mengeluarkan dana US$43,08 juta atas transaksi tersebut.

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October 22, 2014

Dari belanja modal (capital expenditure/capex) Rp1 triliun, AISA telah mengalokasikan Rp400 miliar-Rp500 miliar untuk pembangunan pabrik penggilingan padi kelima dan keenam

Dari belanja modal (capital expenditure/capex) Rp1 triliun, PT Tiga Pilar Sejahtera Food Tbk (AISA) telah mengalokasikan Rp400 miliar-Rp500 miliar untuk pembangunan pabrik penggilingan padi kelima dan keenam. Sebesar Rp150 miliar lainnya dialokasikan untuk perluasan pabrik Taro.

Dana Rp250 miliar akan dialokasikan untuk ekspansi aset kelapa sawit dan Rp100 miliar sisanya untuk pengembangan terkait makanan lainnya. Belanja modal perusahaan pada tahun 2015 sendiri 48% lebih tinggi dari 2014 yang senilai Rp676 miliar.

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October 22, 2014

MPPA: Cementing its leadership

We take a positive view of MPPA’s aggressive 5-year expansion plan which it announced during our Europe NDR. The aim is to cement its market leadership in the big-box category in Indonesia. The company expects to expand its network from the current 101 stores to 260 stores by the end of 2020. This translates into roughly 25 new stores p.a., all of which will be self-financed. MPPA’s cash-generative and asset-light business model is a key attraction compared to its food retailer peers. We maintain our Add rating and lift our DCF-based target price (WACC: 12.5%) after rolling it forward to end-2015. Potential catalysts include better-than-expected same-store sales growth and higher operating leverage as Hypermart grows in scale.

What Happened
During the MPPA non-deal roadshow (NDR), management confirmed that its next growth strategy will be an outer island (ex-Java) focus. Currently, revenue contribution from Java stores is c.60% of consolidated revenue. The company expects this to reverse by end-2020, with outer islands contributing 60% of consolidated revenue. YTD, MPPA has opened two new stores with an average size of 5.8k sq m. This brings MPPA’s total stores to 101 and gross selling space to c.616k sq m. With its scale and track record, MPPA has a competitive advantage over its peers, being the first mover in second- and third-tier cities.

What We Think
The underlying question for most investors is the sustainability of the big-box format relative to the convenience store format in the medium-to long-term. Quoting Euromonitor, management is confident that there is still huge scope for MPPA as modern grocery stores made up only 16.5% of Indonesia’s grocery retail value at end-13. Management also reiterated the compact size of 6k sq m on average for its hypermarkets relative to peers’ 8k-10k sq m. This has made it more nimble in terms of rolling out a hypermarket in the smaller grade b shopping malls located in the tertiary cities.

What You Should Do
MPPA’s higher-margin and asset-light strategy of focusing on expansion to the outer islands makes it an attractive investment proposition, in our view. MPPA’s rising returns and defensiveness against a retail downcycle due to the nature of the products it sells provide an entry point for those looking for an exposure to Indonesia’s fast-growing food retailing business.

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October 22, 2014

MARKET REVIEWWEDNESDAY 22 OCTOBER 2014

SELAMAT MORNING…”Kombinasi naiknya harga saham Apple, Texas Instrument & United Technologies akibat kuatnya pertumbuhan revenue & earnings emiten Q3/2014 & tindakan Bank Sentral Eropa yang akan membeli obligasi corporasi serta naiknya data US existing home sales bulan Septmber naik +2.4% menjadi faktor pendorong DJIA menguat tajam +215.14 poin (+1.31%) ditengah sepinya perdagangan Selasa tercermin dlm vol perdagangan berjumlah 7.2 miliar saham (lebih kecil dibandingkan rata-rata perdagangan dari awal hingga 21 Oktober berjumlah 8.3 miliar saham).IHSG diperkirakan berpeluang menguat terbatas dalam perdagangan Rabu merujuk kenaikan tajam DJIA sebesar +1.31% & EIDO +0.8%, akan tetapi nampaknya himbauan Presiden melalui Pidato saat dilantik menjadi Presiden RI untuk Kerja..Kerja..Kerja dalam waktu dekat ini belum bisa terwujud karena seperti diketahui setelah ada masukan dari KPK & PPATK bahwa ada 5 nama dari 33 nama yang dicalonkan mendapat rapor merah dan kuning, Jokowi-JK batal mengumumkan susunan kabinet Selasa malam. Mengutip salah satu media online nasional, 3 dari 5 nama yg diduga bermasalah tsb berinisial SMI, MI & BG.DJIA +215.14 +1.31% 16614.81NASDAQ +103.40 +2.40% 4419.48S&P +37.27 +1.96% 1941.28GOLD +4.3 +0.35% 1249.00OIL  +0.69 +0.84% 82.60 TIN +55 +0.28% 19,340NICKEL -70 -0.46% 15,300CPO +4 +0.19%  2,13EIDO +0.22 +0.80% $27.61TLK 46.29 (2,867)IDR 12,001Wednesday IDX Range: 5,110 – 5,079 BUY: TLKM, WIKA, TBIG, ADHI, KLBF, UNVR, PTPP, CPIN, ICBPBOW: INTP, BMRI, JSMR, SMGR, CTRA, BBRI

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October 22, 2014

Earnings and Housing Reports Helping Hoist Stocks

The domestic equity markets are moving higher in late-morning action, extending their rebound from last week’s volatility-fueled decline, supported by some upbeat earnings reports and a stronger-than-expected read on existing home sales. Apple easily bested analysts’ quarterly expectations and offered positive guidance, while Dow member Verizon Communications’ earnings miss is being overshadowed by relatively favorable subscriber figures. However, the Dow is lagging behind following mixed results from McDonald’s, Coca-Cola, Travelers and United Technologies. Elsewhere, European stocks are gaining ground to help sentiment, aided by some upbeat earnings reports in the region and speculation that the European Central Bank may provide further stimulus measures. Gold, crude oil and the U.S. dollar are all higher, while Treasuries are trading lower. In other overseas action, Asian stocks finished mixed as slightly stronger-than-expected Chinese 3Q GDP data was met with other diverging reads on the nation’s economic growth, while some strength in the yen weighed on Japanese markets.

Markets Start the Week Higher

Despite an empty economic calendar and light news on the earnings front, the U.S. equity markets finished the first trading day of the week in the green. Strength in consumer and material stocks gave the markets a boost, but a sharp profit miss from IBM tempered gains in the Dow. Elsewhere, Treasuries ended modestly higher, gold prices were up, but crude oil prices and the U.S. dollar were lower. In other equity news, Hasbro slightly beat the Street’s expectations, while Canadian Pacific Railway confirmed exploratory merger talks with CSX Corp have come to an end.

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October 21, 2014

MNCN: Hardships ahead

Hardships ahead
§ Declining ad spends by FMCGs: As Indonesia’s largest multimedia player, MNCN is experiencing the effects of slower industry-wide ad spends due to the economic slowdown, despite a 40% market share in three free-to-air channels – MNC TV, RCTI and Global TV. Fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies in particular contribute 70% of total revenue (exhibit 10), such as UNVR, INDF, KLBF, MYOR and TSPC have been reducing ad spends as a percentage of sales (exhibit 7) stemming from less aggressive product launches, particularly during the economic downturn, in order to save costs. In the interim, some FMCG companies such as KLBF are opting to directly market to customers in the belief that it is more cost-effective. This report marks a transfer of analyst coverage.

§ Lower operational margin compared to peers: Compared to peers such as SCMA, MNCN’s operational margin is approximately 8% lower at only about 39% on average, partly as it has diversified into other media such as radio, newspapers and magazines. We expect its margin to shrink by 2-3% on the anticipated fuel-price hike as well as minimum wage increases.

Outlook: Intense competition and lack of competitive advantage
MNCN is facing tight competition with its main competitor, SCMA, in terms of audience share. As shown in exhibit 9, SCMA’s TV shows have been in leading positions to-date in October 2014. In addition, unlike SCMA, MNCN does not have an internal production house; having one would help EBIT margins as content costs would likely increase following inflation.

Recommendation: Lofty valuation; TP cut to IDR2,300, retain Reduce
With an unexciting 2015 macro outlook, we expect MNCN’s advertising growth rate to remain sluggish (as evidenced in 2013 at 4%). We reduce our 12-month TP to IDR2,300 from IDR2,400, based on 18x our lower 2015F EPS of IDR128, equating to a 20% discount to the stock’s regional peers considering its lower margin compare to its peers and the absence of internal production. A risk to our call would be higher-than-expected economic growth. Due to the sluggish macro outlook, in 2015 we expect MNCN to record only 8% y-y revenue growth vs. 9% y-y growth in 2014F (1H14: 7.6%).

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October 21, 2014

PTBA Akuisisi Saham Bumi Sawindo Permai

PT Perusahaan Tambang Bukit Asam Tbk (PTBA) mengakuisisi saham milik PT Bumi Sawindo Permai (BSP), perusahaan perkebunan kelapa sawit di Tanjung Enim, Sumatera Selatan.

Tercatat, PTBA mengakuisisi 100 persen saham milik PT BSP seluas 8.346 hektare (Ha), yang merupakan bagian dari wilayah Izin Usaha Pertambangan PTBA.

“Dalam lahan perkebunan yang diakuisisi tersebut terdapat cadangan batu bara sebesar 580 juta ton dari total cadangan sebesar 1,99 miliar ton yang dimiliki oleh PTBA,” demikian dilansir dari keterbukaan informasi ke Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI), Selasa (21/10/2014).

Artinya, keberadaan perkebunan tersebut akan menjadi sebuah sinergi yang positif dan strategis untuk pengembangan grup usaha PTBA, khususnya dalam pemenuhan pasokan batubara bagu PLTU Mulut Tambang yang sedang dalam tahap pembangunan, dan proyek PLTU Mulut Tambang lainnya.

Di antara PLTU Mulut Tambang yang batubaranya dipersiapakan dari lahan perkebunan tersebut, adalah PLTU Banko Tengah 2×620 mw (Sumsel 8) yang akan dibangun oleh anak perusahaan PTBA, PT Huadian Bukit Asam Power. PLTU ini rencananya akan beroperasi pada 2017-2018 mendatang untuk memenuhi kebutuhan listrik di Sumatera dan Jawa. PLTU ini diprediksi membutuhkan batubara sekira 5,4 juta ton per tahun, atau 150 juta ton selama 25 tahun.

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October 21, 2014

GGRM: New excise tax is of less benefit

New excise tax is of less benefit
We cut our 2015E/16E EBIT margins 60/110bps. We think that the new excise tax, in
which the government has decided to raise the taxes on machine-rolled cigarettes
(SKM) by 7-17%, but by a mere 4-8% for hand-rolled cigarettes (SKT), will increase
production costs for SKM, which accounts for almost 90% of Gudang Garam’s (GGRM)
overall sales volume. This is made worse by a lack of pricing flexibility and potentially
higher ads spending.

Market share over near-term profitability
We think GGRM will opt for a sustainable market share in the current competitive
market in the inflationary environment. Pricing flexibility is capped by a 2-8% narrower
price gap between its products and competitors and a potential decline in consumers’
purchasing power. While we have cut our 2015/16 ASP increase estimates 70/180bps,
the lower ASP should lead to higher sales volume, in our view, and we increase our
YoY sales volume estimates 4%/6%.

Ads spending to pick up
We also think GGRM will increase its ads spending in 2015, after slowing this year amid
tighter regulations set by the government during an election year. We expect the need
to keep its sustained volume sales will come at the expense of 28%/14% higher ads
spending in 2015/16 or around 2.8%/2.8% of sales from this year’s 2.4% of sales. A
combination of a lack of price increases and higher selling expenses are key drivers for
our reduced EBIT margin in 2015E/16E.

Valuation: Neutral rating; raise price target from Rp60,800 to Rp65,500
We derive our price target from a DCF-based methodology and explicitly forecast long
term valuation drivers using UBS’s VCAM tool. We assume a lower risk-free rate of
8.2% (from previously 8.5%) and an 11.5% WACC. Our price target implies 21x
2015E PE.

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October 21, 2014

Kembangkan 7-Eleven, MDRN Gandeng CIMB Untuk Investasi Saham Ekuitas

Untuk mengembangkan anak usahanya, PT Modern Sevel Indonesia (MSI), PT Modern Internasional Tbk (MDRN) bekerja sama dengan CIMB Private Equity Sdn Bhd untuk melakukan investasi saham ekuitas sebesar 10 persen atau senilai US$25 juta.

Menurut Direktur Utama MSI, Henri Honoris, CIMB Group merupakan mitra jangka panjang bagi Modern Internasional [MDRN], terutama dalam pengembangan bisnis 7-Eleven. “Kemitraan ini telah meningkat ke tingkat yang lebih tinggi dengan CIMB menjadi salah satu pemegang saham minoritas,” ujarnya di Jakarta, Senin (20/10).

Kemitraan tersebut, kata Henri, sekaligus menunjukkan keyakinan CIMB terhadap prospek bisnis 7-Eleven di Indonesia dan kemampuan perusahaan untuk memperluas serta mengembangkan bisnis. MSI merupakan pemegang master franchise 7-Eleven untuk Indonesia.

Dia mengatakan, pelaksanaan kerjasama ini setelah MDRN memperoleh persetujuan pemegang saham pada Rapat Umum Pemegang Saham Luar Biasa (RUPSLB) pada Juli 2014 untuk melakukan aksi korporasi Penambahan Modal Tanpa Hak Memesan Efek Terlebih Dahulu (PTHMETD) hingga 10 persen saham baru.

Menurut Henri, saat ini MSI memiliki 175 outlet 7-Eleven yang telah dibuka di Jakarta dan keikutsertaan CIMBPE ini adalah untuk bersama-sama mengembangkan jaringan outlet 7-Eleven di Indonesia. “Kemitraan strategis ini akan lebih memperkuat hubungan bisnis antara 7-Eleven dan CIMB Group,” ucapnya.

Sementara itu, menurut Group Chief Financial Officer and Chief Executive Officer of Group Strategy and Strategic Investments CIMB Group, Kenny Kim, pihaknya mendukung kemitraan jangka panjang tersebut. “Kami sangat senang dengan kesempatan ini untuk mendukung mitra bisnis jangka panjang kami, yaitu PT Modern Internasional Tbk,” katanya.

Kenny menyebutkan, CIMB Niaga di Indonesia telah menjadi mitra sinergis jangka panjang dengan MDRN. “Investasi ini memperkuat hubungan bisnis kami dan mempererat dukungan untuk bisnis perseroan yang merupakan bukti lain dari komitmen dalam menyediakan aset aktif melalui private equity,” papar Kenny.

Dia menambahkan, PT Bank CIMB Niaga Tbk telah memperluas produk dan layanannya termasuk mesin ATM, EDC dan pembayaran mobile digital untuk bisnis 7-Eleven. Saat ini, ada 150 mesin ATM CIMB dan 175 CIMB EDC yang dipasang di outlet-outlet 7-Eleven yang seluruhnya masih berlokasi di Jakarta.

“Ada potensi untuk 7-Eleven dan CIMB Niaga untuk lebih mengeksplorasi peluang untuk mengembangkan usaha masing-masing melalui kemitraan strategis ini termasuk menyediakan pembiayaan waralaba. Kemitraan ini juga memberikan kontribusi secara tidak langsung terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi negara,” ujarnya.

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October 21, 2014

Waspadai “Profit Taking” Usai Pelantikan Jokowi, Perhatikan Empat Saham Ini

Pada perdagangan hari ini, para pelaku pasar diharapkan mewaspadai aksi profit taking pasca pelantikan Joko Widodo sebagai presiden ketujuh yang dinilai menjadi salah satu pemicu utama kenaikan IHSG ke level 5040.

Hal tersebut dikatakan analis PT HD Capital Tbk, Yuganur Wijanarko, di Jakarta, Selasa (21/10). Dia mengatakan, secara teknikal keberhasilan IHSG untuk kembali di atas level psikologis 5.000 tampak cukup tangguh.

“Namun, kami sarankan untuk menunggu koreksi minor akibat profit taking pasca pelantikan Jokowi sebelum mengambil posisi buy,” papar Yuganur lagi.

Dia menyebutkan, adanya potensi aksi ambil untung pada perdagangan hari ini mesti disikapi para investor untuk mempertimbangkan empat saham pilihan, yakni:

1. PT Tiga Pilar Sejahtera Food Tbk [AISA], target trading Rp2.375.

Koreksi downtrend medium term baru padai emiten consumer mie instan ini mulai ada perubahan berarti dalam bentuk pembentukan minor upward retracement ke target medium-downtrendline di posisi Rp2.375 sebelum momentum terhenti di daerah jenuh beli.

2. PT Lippo Karawaci Tbk [LPKR], target trading Rp1.085.

Walaupun dapat mengalami koreksi minor, HD Capital melihat secara medium term dalam grafik mingguan ada potensi untuk terjadinya proses kenaikan minor pada medium term downtrend dan konsolidasi di emiten properti milik Lippo Group ini ke down-trendline resistance di level Rp1.195.

3. PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia Tbk [BBRI], target trading Rp11.100.

Direkomendasikan positioning buying secara moderat jika terjadi koreksi minor dalam kenaikan emiten perbankan big cap BUMN mikro ritel ini yang terlalu tajam dan rentan profit taking untuk kontinuasi swing naik selanjutnya.

4. PT Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk [BBNI], target trading Rp5.925.

Koreksi pasca kenaikan cukup tajam pada emiten perbankan big cap “pelat merah” ini untuk meredakan keadaan jenuh beli harian dapat digunakan sebagai entry point untuk swing kontinuasi kenaikan berikutnya hingga level Rp5.925.

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October 21, 2014

Takeaways from Meeting with Delta Dunia Makmur

On our meeting with Delta Dunia Makmur (DOID)’s Director, the company – as the second biggest mining contractor in Indonesia – believes the depressed coal price level has already bottomed leaving only upside on the cards. Cost efficiency are the key survival factors for Delta Dunia amid the gloomy coal price. The company improved efficiencies via operational cuts such as employee down-sizing, higher productivity, debt restructuring with extended maturities. The stock is currently trading at 2.3x 2014 PBV.
¨ Major improvements since new management came in back in 2012. Post new management coming in 1H12, Delta Dunia was able to 1.) collect its uncollectible receivables from its customers , 2.) Book positive free cash flow, 3.) cut their employee by 28.3% from 12,000 to 8,600 employees and 4.) cut down capex spending as a reaction to the coal downturn.
¨ Earnings turnaround. Given the aforementioned attempts, DOID was able to book 1H14 earnings of USD11m from a USD6m loss back in 1H13. The management expects 2014-15 capex to reach USD46m and USD56m mostly for heavy equipment replacements.
¨ Debt restructuring. Results from negotiations with several banks, Delta Dunia was able to extend its maturity period from 2015 to 2019. This should reduce pressure on cash outflow for debt repayments for the next 4 years.
¨ Valuation. The management did not give guidance for 2014 net profit. However, based on 2014-15 earnings consensus, the stock is currently trading at 9.5x – 6.3x respectively.

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October 21, 2014

KKGI Finalisasi Akuisisi 95% Saham Bias Petrasia Persada

Manajemen Resource Alam Indonesia (KKGI) menyatakan pada 20 Oktober 2014 telah melakukan penandatangan kesepakatan bersama untuk mengakuisisi saham PT Khatulistiwa Hidro Energi (KHE) milik PT Bumi Raya Utama (BRU) dan perorangan, Hendro Martowardojo.

KHE adalah pemegang 95% saham PT Bias Petrasia Persada (BPP) yang merupakan salah satu perusahaan bergerak di bidang pembangkit listrik tenaga air/hidro energi.

Dirut [KKGI 1,185 0 (+0,0%)] Pintarso Adijanto menyebutkan obyek transaksi adalah penyertaan kepemilikan saham pada KHE. Namun besaran persentase akuisisi dan nilai transaksi tersebut akan dilaporkan setelah selesainya proses penghitungan nilai wajar/fair value serta penilaian kewajaran/fairness opinion dari penilai independen.

Menurut Adijanto pihak-pihak yang melakukan transaksi adalah KKGI sebagai pembeli dan BRU dan Hendro Martowardojo sebagai penjual

“Transaksi tersebut nantinya akan merupakan transaksi afiliasi dari anggota direksi dan afiliasi dari anggota dewan komisaris,” ujar Adijanto dalam pernyataan kepada BEI, Senin (20/10).

Pertimbangan dan alasan perseroan mengakuisisi KHE adalah PT BPP yang merupakan anak usaha KHE dalam proses mengembangkan bisnis energi terbarukan yang telah dituangkan dalam perjanjian pembelian tenaga listrik oleh pihak PT PLN. Perjanjian dengan PLN disepakati pada 9 Juli 2012. Kapasitas pembangkit BPP 6.400 Kwh di lokasi Cicatih, Jawa Barat tentu prospektif di masa yang akan datang.

Alasan lain, pengembangan potensi sumber daya air sebagai energi alternatif dan terbarukan sangat perlu untuk terus digalakkan sesuai keinginan pemerintah untuk mengurangi pemakaian sumber daya alam yang tidak terbarukan. Pertimbangan lain adalah dukungan pemerintah yang tertuang dalam Permen ESDM No 12 Tahun 2014 tentang kenaikan harga beli listrik tenaga air dari semula Rp656/Kwh menjadi maksimum Rp1.075/Kwh (tergantung wilayah kerja).

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October 21, 2014

Data makroekonomi China lebih baik dari konsensus

Data makroekonomi China lebih baik dari konsensus.  Pertumbuhan ekonomi PDB 3Q 2014 7,3% yoy vs cons 7,2% yoy. Industrial Production Sept +8% yoy vs +7,5% yoy. Retail Sales Sept 11,6% yoy vs 11,7% yoy.

October 21, 2014

Antisipasi Laporan Keuangan BBRI & BMRI !!..

Hari Kamis 23 Okt BBRI akan mempublikasikan LK di koran, kami prediksi laba bersih 9m14 sebesar Rp17,5 triliun, atau tumbuh 14%.

Sementara BMRI hari Jumat 24 Okt, dengan prediksi laba bersih Rp14,8 triliun, tumbuh 16%.

Kami merekomendasikan BMRI melihat PBV 14 di level 2,3x, sementara BBRI 2,7x. Didukung ekspektasi pertumbuhan laba bersih yang juga lebih tinggi dari BBRI. Rekomendasi BUY untuk BMRI, TP 12000 dengan target PBV-15 sebesar 2,4x.

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October 21, 2014

Stocks Beginning the Week Mixed

The U.S. equity markets are mixed in early action, following Friday’s solid rebound to cap off a volatile week, with earnings season ramping up, while the domestic economic docket is quiet today. Dow member IBM is finding solid pressure after the company posted much softer-than-expected 3Q results. Meanwhile, overseas, European stocks are broadly lower in the wake of a lowered full-year profit forecast from Germany’s SAP, while Royal Philips missed analysts’ quarterly expectations. Gold is trading higher, along with Treasuries, while the U.S. dollar is flat and crude oil prices are mixed. In other earnings news, Hasbro slightly beat the Street’s profit projections. In other international action, Asian stocks finished higher on the heels of the sharp gains in the U.S. on Friday, led by a rally for the Japanese markets.

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October 20, 2014

Jokowi Visits Prabowo on his Birthday

President-elect Joko “Jokowi” Widodo paid a visit to Prabowo Subianto, the Gerindra Party’s Executive Board Chairman, who celebrated his 63rd birthday on Friday, 17 Oct, 2014. They held a private meeting in Prabowo’s residence located at Jalan Kertanegara IV, Kebayoran Baru, South Jakarta. This was the first meeting since the presidential election on July 9, 2014, which was won by Jokowi and his running mate, M. Jusuf Kalla. (Tempo)

Comment: The meeting between Jokowi and Prabowo was much needed in order to calm down Indonesia’s high political tension. The market turned positive and closed at a positive 1.56% on Friday. In the short-term, we believe that the move is a great solution for the freezing political situation in which the PDIP (Jokowi’s party) coaliation lost in the parliament’s (DPR) and people’s assembly (MPR) leadership election.

Today is also the inauguration day of Jokowi and Jusuf Kalla as the 7th president and vice president of Indonesia. It will then be followed with the announcement of the cabinet (maybe tomorrow) of which Jokowi said will consist of 4 coordinating mininisters and 30 ministers. While we have a neutral stance regarding the cabinet’s roster, looking at the names stated in social media which speculates that some credible names such as Sri Mulyani will be back in the cabinet will give Indonesia a new hope.

October 20, 2014

JSMR incar properti sumbang pendapatan 15%

PT Jasa Marga (Persero) Tbk (JSMR) bakal segera memperkuat portofolio bisnisnya melalui bisnis properti. Emiten pelat merah ini akan menggarap sejumlah proyek properti tahun depan.

“Ada proyek residensial dan kawasan mix used di beberapa wilayah,” tandas Sekertaris Perusahaan JSMR David Wijayatno.

Sayang, dia masih enggan merinci lebih lanjut soal proyeknya tersebut. Yang jelas, manajemen telah memiliki target bisnis propertinya ini untuk tahap awal dapat berkontribusi untuk pendapatan konsolidasi sebesar 10%-15%.

Guna memperoleh hasil investasi yang tepat sasaran, perseroan akan menggandeng pihak lain, tentunya yang telah memiliki pengalaman di dunia bisnis properti. Hingga saat ini, JSMR tengah menuntaskan proses akuisisi lahan guna memuluskan rencananya tersebut.

 

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October 20, 2014
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