WSKT menyuntik modal anak usahanya PT Waskita Beton Precast sebesar Rp592,57 miliar

BUMN karya PT Waskita Karya Tbk (WSKT) menyuntik modal anak usahanya PT Waskita Beton Precast sebesar Rp592,57 miliar. Seiring gencarnya pembangunan proyek infrastruktur di Indonesia membuat pertumbuhan bisnis beton pracetak tinggi. Induk usaha menyuntik modal dengan mekanisme penyertaan modal dalam bentuk aset sebesar Rp238,7 miliar dan setoran tunai Rp353,84 miliar

November 27, 2014

China Oct nickel ore imports from the Philippines down 10.5% MoM

Having been down 14.4% MoM in September, China nickel ore import from the Philippines in October declined 10.5% MoM to 4.2m wmt. YTD China imports from the Philippines were up 24.2% YoY but total imports were down 25.5% YoY due to the Indonesia ore export ban policy. We remain positive on nickel sector with INCO being our top pick (TP IDR4,800).

November 27, 2014

GIAA: to seek shareholders approval for a 10% non preemptive rights issue @ Rp476/shr

GIAA to seek shareholders approval for a 10% non preemptive rights issue @ Rp476/shr on 12 Dec

November 27, 2014

November CPI should rise on higher fuel prices

November CPI should rise on higher fuel prices
§ 33% fuel-price hike could lead to inflation: Following the increase in subsidized fuel prices implemented on 18 November, we expect November inflationary pressure to escalate. Apart from the direct impact, we expect second-round effects from the fuel-price hike to lead to higher prices of staple foods, processed foods and beverages, as well as transportation tariffs. Unfortunately, the Trade Ministry’s website no longer publishes staple food price information. However, based on prior fuel-price increases, we expect staple food prices to rise by 1.2% m-m (October: 0.25%).
§ Headline CPI should rise to 5.86% y-y; up 1.15% m-m: At this stage, we believe the November headline CPI should rise by 1.15% m-m, translating into a 5.86% y-y increase (October: 4.83%). We also expect core inflation to increase to 4.38% y-y (October: 4.02%), mostly due to the indirect impact of higher subsidized fuel prices.

October trade balance: Likely to turn to a slight surplus of USD55m
As shown in exhibit 2, October manufacturing export orders were slightly lower on weaker demand from key trading partners, as the global economic recovery remains unsteady. However, we expect October total exports to remain resilient, reaching USD15.31bn, slightly up 0.35% m-m (-2.3% y-y) mainly supported by a jump in palm oil exports (+45.8% m-m). Nonetheless, we expect October imports to be lower at USD15.27bn, contracting by 7.75% m-m (-2.6% y-y). This might have been caused by the expectation of higher fuel prices, resulting in weaker-than-expected raw material demand during the period. Thus, we believe the October trade balance will have turned to a slight surplus of USD55m (September deficit of USD270mn).

BI rate should remain 7.75% in December
Post the extraordinary BOG meeting which resulted in a BI rate increase to 7.75% in response to escalating inflationary pressure, we expect the central bank to hold its policy rate at the next BOG meeting on 11 December. The current BI rate level should be sufficient to manage inflationary expectations.

November 27, 2014

Penurunan penjualan alat berat UNTR akan berdampak negatif pada pendapatan dan laba bersih perseroan

Penurunan penjualan alat berat PT United Tractors Tbk (UNTR) akan berdampak negatif pada pendapatan dan laba bersih perseroan. Penurunan penjualan alat berat UNTR didorong masih belum membaiknya harga komoditas pertambangan. Penjualan alat berat sebanyak 251 unit sepanjang Oktober lalu. Penjualan tersebut turun hingga 60% dibandingkan periode yang sama tahun lalu sebanyak 402 unit

November 27, 2014

AISA 9M14 results below

AISA reported 9M14 earnings of IDR247bn (+14% y-y), making up 61% of our FY14F estimates (vs. 9M13’s 69% FY13). We expect higher growth of earnings in 4Q14 from the 4th rice mill that started operation only in 3Q14 and higher utilization of 3rd rice mill that commenced operation earlier this year. Revenue was up 24% y-y to IDR3.7tn while EBIT came at slower 9% y-y to IDR490bn due to EBIT margin compression of 180bps, mainly due to growing portion of rice business which had its margin declined. On quarterly basis, we see sales decline of 6% q-q, while EBIT margin narrowed 240bps. It led to EBIT decline of 23% q-q but its earnings remain flat q-q.

November 27, 2014

MYRX semakin agresif mengelola bisnis properti

PT Hanson International Tbk (MYRX) semakin agresif mengelola bisnis properti. MYRX sudah menjual sekitar 8.000 rumah di kawasan Maja, Tangerang. MYRX menjual rumah pada kisaran harga Rp 119,5 juta hingga Rp 290 juta per unit. Untuk pengembangan di Maja, MYRX telah menggandeng PT Ciputra Development Tbk (CTRA)

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November 27, 2014

APLN: raised Rp440bn bond @ 12.5% interest rate

APLN raised Rp440bn bond @ 12.5% interest rate as part of its Rp2.5trn bond issuance plans

November 27, 2014

PT Bank Agris menargetkan dana IPO sebesar Rp94,5-103,5M yang akan digunakan untuk ekspansi kredit

PT Bank Agris menargetkan dana IPO sebesar Rp94,5-103,5M yang akan digunakan untuk ekspansi kredit. Perseroan akan menawarkan 900 juta saham dengan harga Rp105-Rp115/saham atau sebanyak 21,25% dimana sebagai under writer yakni PT Indo Premier Securities. Pencatatan di BEI diperkirakan pada 22 Desember 2014.

November 27, 2014

The absence of joint commitment from Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, Mexico and Russia to cut oil production has pushed down Brent oil price for January settlement by USD1.35/barrel to USD78.33/barrel

The absence of joint commitment from Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, Mexico and Russia to cut oil production has pushed down Brent oil price for January settlement by USD1.35/barrel to USD78.33/barrel. It is estimated that OPEC needs to cut above 2m barrels of production to stabilize the prices. While the main reasons for declines in oil prices remain debatable, we are concerned if the declines are due to slowdown in global demand because that could potentially drag down prices of other commodities. We see oil price of USD70/barrel as the threshold for Indonesian economy. As you can see in the below figure, exports of commodities (oil, coal, minerals, CPO, and rubber) account ~46% of Indonesia exports. For coal companies, fuel costs account ~25% of production costs meaning that production costs could be down by ~USD2/ton in 2015 if the oil prices stay current level. Despite the cost decline, we don’t think that will be able to offset decline in ASP.

November 27, 2014

SRIL: Lower earnings volatility ahead

§ USD reporting to create greater earnings stability: To maintain a more stable income stream through the removal of unrealized items, especially forex gains/ losses, SRIL plans to adopt USD as its reporting currency for the company’s financial statement by next year. Since most of SRIL’s loans and sales (70%) are denominated in USD, there should be less forex-related gains/ losses once the company switches to USD accounting. Note that SRIL booked a much higher 9M14 operating profit growth (up 34.1% y-y), compared to its bottom line growth of 5.7% y-y, due to a large forex loss of IDR117bn booked in 2Q14.
§ Additional USD70mn bond and USD30mn MTN to fund 2015 capex: On 14 November 2014, SRIL issued USD70mn (equivalent to IDR838bn, based on the recorded exchange rate of IDR11,969) of bonds with an effective interest rate of 9% and USD30mn of Medium-Term Notes (MTN) with an interest rate of 6% to fund its 2015 capex budget of USD104mn. Meanwhile, other non-fully integrated local textile players are losing competitiveness compared with their overseas peers on the back of large increases in electricity tariffs. We believe this big cost increase should provide an opportunity for SRIL to take market share from its domestic non-fully integrated rivals. Additionally, on the export front, SRIL benefits from China’s labor shortage and much higher wages, allowing for increased competitiveness for the company.

Outlook: Not materially affected by increased BI rate: Being in a capital-intensive sector, SRIL has a high leverage with 9M14 net gearing at 137.8% and interest coverage ratio of just 2.9x. However, we note that SRIL’s expansion plans should remain on track as it has secured funding for its 2015 capex. This should provide SRIL with a competitive advantage as other textile companies might slow their expansions next year following BI’s move to raise its policy rate by 25bps to 7.75%. We also note that approximately 40% SRIL’s total loans are capitalized and the company has mostly refinanced its debt to USD at much lower interest rates, averaging around 10%, compared to previous borrowing rates of 12-13%.

Recommendation: Retain BUY; Cut TP to IDR210 on lower earnings
At this stage of the cycle, we are lowering our 2014-16F operating profit by 5-8% to factor in higher utilities and transportation costs (exhibit 5). Nevertheless, on valuations, we believe SRIL is trading at an attractive 5x 2015F PE, some 70% discount to Pan Brothers (PBRX IJ-NOT RATED-IDR458). However, in line with our lower 2015 earnings downgrades, we lower our TP to IDR210 (from IDR220), reflecting less than 7x 2015F PE, still some 60% discount to Pan Brothers’ consensus target 2015F PER (exhibit 6), which we believe is sufficient to take into account SRIL’s higher leverage and currency exposure. Going forward, we believe SRIL’s recent stock-price recovery (up 30% from its bottom) should continue, helped by its depressed valuation and improved GDP growth in the US. Risks to our call would include worse-than-expected labor shortage, weaker-than-expected IDR (USD300mn debt) and weaker-than-expected global economic recovery.

November 27, 2014

BI: Inflasi Desember Bisa Tembus 2%

Bank Indonesia memprediksikan inflasi Desember 2014 akan mencatatkan laju inflasi bulanan sepanjang tahun ini.

“Inflasi tertinggi di Desember, bisa di atas 2%, sehingga volatile food harus dijaga,” ungkap Gubernur Bank Indonesia Agus D. W. Martowardojo, Rabu (26/11/2014).

Agus memprediksikan laju inflasi bulanan hingga minggu ketiga November 2014 bisa mencapai 1,3%-1,4%. Menurutnya, hingga minggu ketiga November tahun ini, inflasi inti masih terjaga walaupun akan terjadi kenaikan yang bulan penghujung tahun.

Baru-baru ini, pemerintah melakukan penyesuaian harga bahan bakar minyak (BBM) masing-masing Rp2.000 untuk premium dan solar. BI memprediksikan kebijakan tersebut diprediksikan mendongkrak laju inflasi tahunan di kisaran 7,7%-8,1%.

Namun, BI akan berusaha mengendalikan inflasi pada posisi batas bawah yakni 7,7% hingga akhir tahun. Padahal sebelumnya, BI optimis memproyeksikan laju inflasi tahun ini di 4,5% plus minus 1%. Sayangnya, proyeksi tersebut masih jauh dari ekspektasi bank sentral.

Pascapenyesuaian harga BBM, BI langsung merespon dengan bauran kebijakan penaikan suku bunga acuan Bank Indonesia (BI Rate) sebesar 25 basis poin (bps) menjadi 7,75%, dengan suku bunga lending facility naik 50 bps menjadi 8% dan deposit facility tetap pada level 5,75% berlaku efektif sehari setelah pemerintah melakukan reformasi subsidi BBM.

Agus mengungkapkan penaikan BI Rate tersebut konsisten menunjukkan bahwa kebijakan ekonomi cenderung ketat. Kenaikan BI Rate ditempuh untuk menjangkar ekspektasi inflasi dan memastikan pengelolaan defisit transaksi berjalan ke arah yang lebih sehat.

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November 27, 2014


Menteri perminyakan Arab Saudi mengatakan penurunan harga minyak saat ini akan segera menjadi stabil dan negaranya tidak perlu mengurangi produksi minyak.

“Tak ada yang perlu memangkas dan pasar akan segera stabil sendiri,” kata Ali Al-Naimi kepada wartawan sebelum pertemuan OPEC di Wina. “Kenapa kita harus memangkas? AS adalah produsen terbesar juga saat ini, apa mereka mau memangkas,” katanya.

Pertemuan 12 negara pengekspor minyak berlangsung pada Kamis, 27 November 2014 di Wina, dan mendiskusikan gabungan produksi ketika harga minyak turun 30 persen sejak Juni lalu. Beberapa negara seperti Venezuela, Meksiko dan Arab Saudi serta Rusia hanya akan memonitor harga tanpa ada kesepakatan pengurangan produksi.

November 27, 2014

CPO: Pemerintah Buka Peluang Wajibkan Solar Dicampur 30% Bahan Bakar Minyak Sawit

Bahan Bakar Nabati (BBN) alias biofuel adalah salah satu energi alternatif yang bisa berkembang di Indonesia. Pengembangan BBN bisa memanfaatkan harga minyak sawit mentah (CPO).

Bambang Brodjonegoro, Menteri Keuangan, menyebutkan saat ini pemerintah sudah punya aturan kewajiban BBN jenis biodiesel 10% untuk solar. Ke depan, bukan tidak mungkin akan ditambah hingga 30%.

“Saat ini kita hanya 10%. Namun sekarang harga CPO sedang rendah. Produsen CPO dalam negeri berharap kita bisa naikkan jadi 20-30%,” ungkap Bambang dalam acara Sustainable Development Solutions Network di Hotel Aryaduta, Jakarta, Rabu (26/11/2014).

Bila para produsen ini bisa memasok lebih banyak untuk pembuatan BBN, lanjut Bambang, bisa saja pemerintah menaikkan kewajiban menjadi sampai 30%. Ini tentu akan berdampak positif buat Anggaran Pendapatan dan Belanja Negara (APBN).

Pasalnya, ketika lebih banyak BBN digunakan dan itu diproduksi di dalam negeri, maka impor energi akan berkurang. Artinya, anggaran subsidi Bahan Bakar Minyak (BBM) yang nilainya ratusan triliun rupiah per tahun bisa dihemat.

“Kita bisa mengurangi impor BBM. Kita juga bisa mengurangi ketergantungan terhadap BBM,” sebutnya.

Hal ini, tambah Bambang, tentu menjadi kabar baik. Ini karena produksi minyak Indonesia terus menurun sehingga separuh kebutuhan dalam negeri harus diimpor.

“Meningkatkan produksi minyak sepertinya mustahil. Tapi kita punya potensi non fosil. Dengan dukungan dari pemerintah, saya yakin pemanfaatannya akan semakin besar,” jelasnya.

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November 27, 2014

POULTRY: Akhirnya, Jepang terima produk daging ayam RI

Akhirnya, Jepang membuka pintu dagang untuk produk ekspor ayam olahan Indonesia. Terhitung pada Selasa (25/11) kemarin, Pemerintah Jepang resmi membuka pasar daging ayam olahan dari Indonesia. Sayang, dari empat perusahaan yang akan melakukan ekspor baru tiga perusahaan yang dipastikan memperoleh izin ekspor.

Setelah  11 tahun lamanya pintu dagang ekspor ayam olahan Jepang tertutup untuk Indonesia. Selasa kemarin secara resmi Pemerintah Jepang memberikan izin kepada PT Charoen Pokphand Indonesia , PT Japfa Comfeed Indonesia dan PT Malindo Feedmill. Sementara, PT Sierad Produce  belum mendapatkan izin ekspor.

Syukur Iwantoro, Dirjen Peternakan dan Kesehatan Hewan mengatakan, satu perusahaan yang belum disetujui karena diminta perbaikan secara tekhnis dan pengelolaan oleh tim editor dari Jepang. Sementara untuk volumenya kata Syukur dibebaskan sesuai dengan kemampuan perusahaan.

Indonesia telah membuktikan mampu menekan kasus flu burung dengan menggunakan vaksin buatan sendiri. Meski potensi pasar Jepang tinggi namun pesaing juga berkompetisi ketat dari Thailand, Brazil dan Tiongkok.

Oleh karena itu, dari segi kualitas dan rasa produk tiga perusahaan harus dapat dijaga. Disamping hal lain yang juga harus diwaspadai adalah aspek harga. Harus diakui, saat ini Indonesia masih lemah pada infrastruktur. Sehingga rantai distribusi juga belum efisien.

Izin ekspor daging ayam olahan juga ditandai dengan masuknya daging wagiyu asal Jepang ke Indonesia. Saat ini daging wagiyu masih dalam uji halal dan keamanan pangan dari Lembaga Pengawasan Pangan Obat dan Makanan Majelis Ulama Indonesia (LPPOM MUI).

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November 27, 2014

PTPP garap kontrak Rp 37 triliun

Emiten konstruksi pelat merah PT PP (Persero) Tbk (PTPP) kian mendekati target order book hingga akhir tahun. Hingga saat ini, perseroan memperoleh total kontrak atau order book Rp 37 triliun.

Nilai tersebut berasal dari carry over tahun lalu sebesar Rp 21,93 triliun. “Sementara, perolehan kontrak baru yang kami peroleh Rp 15,1 triliun,” imbuh Direktur Keuangan PTPP Tumiyana, Rabu (26/11).

Terbaru, PTPP memperoleh kontrak untuk proyek pembangunan Apartemen Sawangan di Depok, Tol Depok Antasari, Lexington Apartemen, Wang Residence Citicon, dan sejumlah proyek baru lainnya. Nilai kontrak yang baru diperoleh tersebut lebih dari Rp 4 triliun.

November 27, 2014

PTPP bangun apartemen di Australia

Emiten pelat merah PT PP (Persero) Tbk (PTPP) sepertinya bakal semakin ekspansif. Melalui anak usahanya, yakni PT PP Properti, perseroan sudah memegang  kontrak pembangunan apartemen di Australia.

PT PP Properti akan membangun apartemen Multiplex dan Pindan di negeri kangguru tersebut. Proyek tersebut terdiri dari 12 tower apartemen dan terdiri dari 250 unit kamar. “Nilai proyeknya sekitar Rp 1,1 triliun,” imbuh Direktur Keuangan PTPP Tumiyana, Rabu (26/11).

Saat ini, PTPP tengah menyeleksi dua perusahaan lokal yang bakal menjadi mitra pengerjaan proyek tersebut. Awal tahun depan proses seleksi dan administrasinya diharapkan sudah bisa selesai sehingga konstruksinya bisa dilakukan mulai kuartal III tahun depan.

PTPP bakal menjadi pemegang saham mayoritas, dengan menggenggam 51% saham atas proyek tersebut. Dari keseluruhan nilai proyek, sebesar 30% -nya akan diambil dari kas internal perseroan. Sementara, sisanya akan diambil dari kombinasi pinjaman bank dan kas dari perusahaan yang nantinya menjadi mitra kerja PTPP.

November 27, 2014

Panin Sekuritas Research 27 Nov 2014

Bursa Amerika naik didorong oleh data makroekonomi yang resilient. Durable goods Okt naik; penjualan rumah pertama baru Okt naik ketiga bulan berturut-turut; Cons Confidence AS Nov naik ke level tertinggi dalam 7 tahun. Consumer spending Okt +0,2%. Dow +0,07%; S&P +0,28%. Nasdaq +0,61%. NYMEX kembali menurun ke level terendah dalam 4 tahun menjadi $73,69/b didorong berita dari Reuters bahwa produsen di OPEC setuju untuk tidak memangkas produksi pada rapat Kamis nanti. Presiden Komisi Eropa Jean Claude Juncker mengatakan rencana stimulus 300 miliar euro untuk mendorong ekonomi zona Eropa dimana EU dan Bank investasi Eropa berkontribusi 21 miliar euro (Bloomberg). Bursa regional pagi ini dibuka menurun.

IHSG hari ini diperkirakan akan terkoreksi. Menkeu Bambang Brodjonegoro mengajukan rencana subsidi minyak tetap Rp1000-2000 per liter kepada Presiden Jokowi (Bloomberg). Pemerintah menargetkan defisit APBN 2015 dibawah 2% dari PDB. OJK akan merampingkan jumlah bank melalui program Masterplan jasa keuangan Indonesia hingga 50%. Investor asing diperbolehkan memiliki lebih dari 40% saham bank lokal dengan syarat wajib mengakuisisi lebih dari 1 bank. BPS memperkirakan Inflasi November akan diatas 1% mom. BI memprediksi inflasi berkisar 1,3%-1,6% mom atau setara dengan 6,1% yoy dan 4,83% ytd. PMA 2015-2019 ditargetkan mencapai Rp3.518,5T atau naik dari 2x lipat dari PMA jaman pemerintahan sebelumnya 2009-2014 Rp1.626,2T. Pertumbuhan ekonomi 2014 5%-5,1% dan 5,8% pada 2015. Kemenhub berencana memberikan insentif angkutan umum yang menggunakan BBG dengan pembebasan PKB selama 3 tahun dan bea masuk kendaraan. Investasi industri galangan kapal nasional bisa menembus Rp30T pada 2015. Presiden Jokowi sudah membolehkan para menterinya untuk mengadakan rapat dengan DPR.

Kinerja emiten konstruksi pelat merah PTPP kian mendekati target order book hingga akhir tahun

Kinerja emiten konstruksi pelat merah PT PP Tbk (PTPP) kian mendekati target order book hingga akhir tahun. Perseroan memperoleh total kontrak atau order book Rp37 triliun. nilai tersebut berasal dari carry over tahun lalu sebesar Rp21,93 triliun

November 27, 2014

TECHNICAL REVIEW on 27.11.14 (By: D’ORIGIN – Gita Adiwoso)

IHSG(26/11) ditutup menguat 0.275% ke level 5133.03 dengan value sebesar 4.720 Tn. Net buy investor asing pada pasar reguler senilai 157.63 billion menjadikan YTD net buy foreigners  mjd 50.00Tn.
Indeks LQ45 terakselerasi 0.38% menjadi 884.59 dengan level Intraday tertinggi 5,137.06 & intraday terendah 5,107.57.

Prediksi pergerakan indeks hari ini:
IHSG range : 5080 – 5160
Support : 5120 ; 5108
Resist :    5150 ; 5160
Small white candle, volume lebih kecil dari hari sebelumnya, MACD indikasi menguat, Stochastic berada pada area jenuh beli. Penguatan IHSG berpotensi menguji resist 5150 dimana potensi tembus akan membuka peluang menguji resist 5160.

ADRO closed 1105 (+10 pts ; +0.9%)
Support : 1090 ; 1070
Resist :    1110 ; 1120
White candle, volume lebih kecil dari hari sebelumnya, OBV dan CMF menunjukan dorongan beli, MACD mengindikasi penguatan, Stocashtic bergerak
menuju area jenuh beli. MA5 berhasil golden cross dengan MA20. ADRO berhasil tutup diatas MA50 dan MA5. Penguatan ini berpotensi menguji resist 1110, penembusan level ini berpeluang menuju 1120. ¤Spec. Buy

HRUM closed 1650 (+30 pts ; +1.9%)
Support : 1620 ; 1600
Resist : 1680 ; 1710
Small white candle, volume lebih kecil dari hari sebelumnya, OBV dan CMF menunjukan dorongan beli, MACD indikasi menguat, Stochastic berada pada area jenuh beli. HRUM menguat cukup signifikan, penguatan ini berpotensi menguji resist 1680 (MA50), penembusan level ini berpeluang menuju 1710. ¤BOW

TAXI closed 1150 (+60 pts ; +5.5%)
Support : 1135 ; 1115
Resist :    1170 ; 1190
White opening marubozu, volume lebih besar dari hari sebelumnya, OBV dan CMF menunjukan dorongan beli, MACD berpotensi golden cross, Stocsahtic
bergerak keluar area jenuh jual. TAXI menguat signifikan dan berhasil tutup diatas MA5. Penguatan ini berpotensi menguji resist 1170, penembusan level ini berpeluang menuju 1190. Spec.Buy

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November 27, 2014

Ciptadana Daily Technical View 27 November 2014

JCI would trade between 5,070 (support) – 5,160 (resistance) level today

BSDE : Speculative buy at Rp 1,715-Rp 1,700
Comment: Closed above resistance level

BKSL : Speculative buy at  Rp 105-Rp 103
Comment: Held above support level of 100

ASII : Sell on strength at  Rp 7,100-Rp7,200
Comment: Mid-term trend is still sideways

BBCA : Sell on strength at Rp 13,300-Rp 13,500
Comment: Formed a negative divergence
Market Movement
JCI index closed higher 0.3%, closed at 5,133 on Monday with ASII, BBRI and TLKM consecutively became leading movers. Trading value was at Rp3.9 tn and foreign investors bought Rp260.8 bn of net shares. Rupiah weakened by 14 points to 12,178/US$. The truce between the Red-and-White Coalition and Great Indonesia Coalition at the house representatives came to nought on Wednesday as the legislative body put the brakes on amending the Legislative Institutions (MD3) Law, a condition that was required for the resolution of the lengthy dispute between the two sides.  Many speculated that the renewed that the renewed standoff resulted from what the Red-and-White Coalition deemed a political intervention by President Jokowi in the internal affairs of the Golkar Party, which is a member of that coalition. From our technical desk, it is probable that JCI will close at mixed to positive territory with technical range of 5,070 – 5,160
Business News
BI to help curb 2014 inflation at 7.7 %
Bumi to restructure debts within 6 months
Mandiri targets 18% loan growth next year
SCMA aims Rp5.45 tn ads revenue in 2015
Semen Baturaja seeks for Rp600 bn financing

November 27, 2014

U.S. stocks gained on Wednesday, with the Dow and S&P 500 finishing at records

Good morning,

U.S. stocks gained on Wednesday, with the Dow and S&P 500 finishing at records, as investors considered reports on manufacturing and housing in assessing the strength of the U.S. economy.

Dow………17828 +12.8  +0.07% 
Nasdaq……4787 +29.1  +0.61% 
S&P 500…..2073 +5.8    +0.28%

FTSE……….6729  -1.97   -0.03% 
DAX………..9916 +54.4 +0.55% 
CAC………..4373  -8.9     -0.20%

Nikkei……17384  -24      -0.14%
HSI……….24112 +268.1+1.12% 
Shanghai…2605 +37.3  +1.45% 
ST Times…3350  +4.7   +0.14%  

Indo10Yr 7.8517 +0.067+0.86%
US10Yr….2.23%  -0.03    -1.15% 

VIX………..12.07  -0.18    -1.47% 

USD Index…87.66  -0.15  -0.17%
Como Index 266.65-0.21  -0.08%
(Core Commodity CRB )
DJUSCL…..115.93   -0.54  -0.46% 
(Dow Jones US Coal Index) 
IndoCDS…138.48  +1.4   +1.02% 
(5-yr INOCD5) 

IDR………12177.5 +14    +0.11%
Jisdor……12160    -6        -0.05%
Euro……..1.2506 +0.0032+0.26%

TLKM…….46.37  +0.96    +2.11%
(Rp 2819)
ARMS Plc..18.75 +0.50    +2.74% 
JAPFA LTD..0.63   -0.005   -0.79%
EIDO……..27.90  +0.31    +1.12%
EEM………42.53  +0.53    +1.26% 

Oil…………73.63  -0.26    -0.35% 
Gold ……1198.45-2.69     -0.22% 
Timah…….data menyusul
Nickel…….data menyusul
Coal……….62.65 +0.55  +0.88%
CPO………..2238  +43.    +1.96%
Corn……..391.50 +4.25  +1.10% 
SoybeanOil.33.61+0.02  +0.06% 
Wheat……56.75  +5.00  +0.90% 

(DE/ls- 27-11-14) 

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November 27, 2014

BUMI ajukan restrukturisasi utang Rp 45 triliun!

PT Bumi Resources Tbk (BUMI) tengah melakukan negosiasi dengan para kreditur. Tidak hanya dengan kreditur obligasi, melainkan kreditur dari lembaga keuangan, termasuk Country Forest Limited, anak usaha China Investment Corporation (CIC). 

Andrew Christopher Beckham, Direktur Keuangan BUMI mengatakan, pihaknya tengah melakukan restrukturisasi utang besar-besaran (global debt restructuring). Total nilai restrukturisasi utang mencapai US$ 3,37 miliar. 

November 27, 2014

Indonesia akhirnya kembali bisa ekspor produk daging ayam olahan ke Jepang

Indonesia akhirnya kembali bisa ekspor produk daging ayam olahan ke Jepang. Minggu ini, 3 perusahaan telah mendapat izin untuk ekspor produk daging ayam ke Jepang, yakni CPIN, MAIN, dan JPFA. Terhitung tanggal 25 November 2014, pemerintah Jepang resmi membuka pasar untuk daging ayam olahan Indonesia.

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November 27, 2014

ERAA: Xiaomi is expected to contribute 9-14% to Co’s phone sale 15-16CL

ERAA: Robert rolls forward valuations, maintains UPF but raised TP to 1250 from 1150. Takes a look at potential impact of Xiaomi as it goes to retail stores to reach a wider audience as online sales has been good but not great. Xiaomi is expected to contribute 9-14% to Co’s phone sale 15-16CL but at the expense of other android brands leading to a 3-6% NP cut for 15-16CL. Fuel price hike also a contributing factor there

November 27, 2014

IPO PT Soechi Lines hanya akan melepas 1,05 miliar saham atau sebesar 15% atau turun separuhnya dari rencana awal sebesar 30%

IPO PT Soechi Lines hanya akan melepas 1,05 miliar saham atau sebesar 15% atau turun separuhnya dari rencana awal sebesar 30%. Harga saham yang ditawarkan Rp600-800 menjadi hanya Rp550/saham. Soechi akan meraup dana Rp 582,4M lebih rendah dari target awal Rp2T. Dana hasil IPO sebesar 55% untuk belanja modal dan membeli kapal baru, sebesar 30% digunakan untuk membayar utang entitas anak kepada bank, 15% dipakai untuk modal kerja entitas anak.

November 27, 2014

SRIL issued US$70mn bond at 9% coupon rate and matured in April 2019 (4.5 years)

SRIL Update

SRIL issued US$70mn bond at 9% coupon rate and matured in April 2019 (4.5 years). This bond is a continuation of previous US$200mn bond, issued in 2Q14.

This additional US$70mn debt should increase the gearing ratio by some +30% and add some Rp80-85bn of interest expense (17-18% of 15CL profit and 15-16% of 16CL profit).

SRIL carried Rp3.5tn net debt as of 9M14, 139% net debt/equity.

Proceed of usage is not specific, only mentioned that it will be used for expansion, working capital and other business expansion opportunity.

SRIL previously mentioned their aggressive expansion plan in 2015-16F. It budgets US$104mn of capex in 2015, up 89% from 2014 capex of US$55mn.

We think SRIL’s expansion plan is simply too aggressive for their balance sheet.

We have discussed this issue in our previous note: Sritex – U-pf (Too fast, too furious) 15 Aug 2014

Valuation wise, SRIL trades cheap at 6x 15CL PE, however with lack of catalyst. We have an U-pf rating on the name.

November 26, 2014

Policy update: Higher fuel prices

No pain, no gain
Govt raises subsidized-fuel prices, +33.5% on average
The most anticipated subsidy reform from the new administration has been rolled out. In line with our view, the regular (called “Premium”) gasoline price was raised to IDR8,500/liter (+31%), while diesel price was lifted to IDR7,500/liter (+36%), resulting in an average hike of 33.5%, similar to the 2013 average hike level of 33.3% (exhibit 2).
Expected budget savings to reach above IDR100tn next year
The Finance Minister targets more than IDR100tn to be saved in the 2015 state budget from the fuel price hikes. Also, due to this move, the government plans to lower 2015 fiscal deficit target to below 2.2% of GDP. Based on our analysis, the government could save around IDR133tn. If around 60% of saved money were to be reallocated to boost infrastructure spending, it could help to raise 2015 GDP growth to above 5%.
Compensation packages and other social safety nets in advance
Prior to raising subsidized fuel prices, the government has revealed social protection programs for poor families including:
– Under the Prosperous Family Card (KKS), cash-transfer assistance (IDR200k/month) will be distributed to 12.5m low-income families;
– Health insurance under Healthy Indonesia Card (KIS) could be utilized to obtain free medical treatments for primary and intermediary services;
– Educational assistance under Smart Indonesia Card (KIP) will be distributed to all poor students within the age of 7-18 years old.
2014-2015 macroeconomic outlook post fuel price adjustments
§ 2014F CPI to surge to 7.5% y-y before normalizing to 5.6% in 2015F: We believe end-2014 headline CPI would reach 7.48% y-y, lower than our initial target of 8.1% as the indirect effect from higher fuel prices would mostly appear in 1H15. Nevertheless, assuming no additional changes to next year’s fuel prices and coupled with continuing low trend of commodity prices, we expect 2015 inflation would normalize to 5.57% y-y.
§ Expect no more BI rate changes in 2014; one 25bp hike in 4Q15: Unexpectedly, BI has raised its benchmark rate 25bps to 7.75%. Looking ahead, we only expect an additional 25bp policy-rate hike in 4Q15, to 8%, in response to possible capital outflows on an expected Fed rate hike.
§ 2015F CAD should narrow; strengthening IDR to 11,700/USD: As higher fuel prices tend to slightly lower Indonesia’s fuel consumption and put a brake on oil imports, we expect 2015 current account deficit (CAD) to ease to 2.7% of GDP from our 2014 target of 3.1%, paving the way for stronger IDR at 11,700/USD from the current 12,150/USD.
§ 2014F & 2015F GDP should be flat at around 5% level: Lower purchasing power during fuel price hike adjustment period and continuing weak exports due to bleak global economic prospects would hold back GDP. We expect 2014 GDP growth to reach 5.08% (previous estimate: 5.12%) before slowing to 5.02% (previous: 5.08%) in 2015.

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November 26, 2014

Indonesia Media and Entertainment: Near-term slowdown in ad spend

Near-term slowdown
We now forecast Indonesian TV ad spend to grow 11%/12% in 2014/2015 from
17%/16% previously, as slowing GDP growth and the recent Rp2,000/litre fuel price
hike could put pressure on advertisers’ sales growth and profitability margins. With the
2015 budget review being conducted from December to January 2015, we do not
expect advertisers to return to the market until Q215, ahead of Ramadan.

We remain positive in the medium term
We think an ad spend recovery is likely in Q215, given the one quarter lag between ad
spend and ASP hikes; Q1 is historically the low quarter for consumer staple sales.
Although we lower our EPS estimates, the media sector’s 12-month forward PE average
is down 25% from the peak in 2014, and we believe it remains an inexpensive proxy to
the consumer staples sector at a 36% discount on a 12-month forward PE basis,
despite higher ROIC. We expect ad spend growth to recover to 16% in 2016E, based
on GDP growth rising from 5.0% to 5.8% and as competition continues in the FMCG
segment (which makes up over 50% of ad spend).

Online not a material threat to television, but it is growing fast
Our checks suggest multinational consumer companies now allocate 8-9% of their
advertising budgets to online versus the 6% total in Indonesia. We expect this shift to
continue due to rising internet and smartphone penetration, but we remain
comfortable with our 16%/13% TV ad spend growth assumptions for 2016/2017.
While we expect online to initially take share from print, we note the latter still has a
23% share of total industry ad spend, while Indonesia’s TV rate card remains among
the cheapest and most effective way to reach the mass mid- to low-income audiences.

Surya Citra remains our top pick; maintain Buy on Global Mediacom
Although Surya Citra’s (Buy; new price target of Rp4,050) decision to cut the portion of
lower-value cost-per-rating-point (CPRP) ad deals has been a setback as industry
growth was weakening, it has enabled the company to charge higher rate card prices.
This implies attractive upside as its revenue share remains 15ppt below Media
Nusantara (Neutral; new price target of Rp2,680), regardless of comparable audience
shares. We like Global Mediacom (Buy; new price target of Rp2,175) for its increasing
exposure to online advertising through subsidiary MNC Media Investment.

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November 26, 2014

CPGT to auction the assets

Cipaganti Citra Graha (CPGT) will auction its asset to Bank MNC after the Bank refused to the debt restructuring plan of CPGT. Previously as of 30 June 2014, CPGT had obtained IDR102b credit facility from Bank MNC which used for procurement of pool, office building, fleets, and heavy equipment. As for now, the company’s outstanding debt counts for IDR43.7b and IDR5.1b will be matured by end 2014.

November 26, 2014

Car sales 2015 outlook to remain stagnant

Amelia Tjandra, Marketing Director of Astra Daihatsu Motor, expects the recent fuel price hike will drop the next 4 month’s car sales down by 15%-20% and thus, it will hamper car sales growth for 2015F to be stagnant. For 2015F, the total number of cars sold is expected to be 1.2m units, in which Daihatsu and Toyota projects the same targets from 2014’s of 15% and 33%-34% market share respectively for 2015F. Additionally, there is still no effect of fuel price hike on car price as for now.

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November 26, 2014

Regional plantations: El Nino Alert!

The Australia Bureau of Meteorology’s (ABM) ENSO Tracker Status has been upgraded on 18 Nov 2014 from WATCH to ALERT level, indicating at least a 70% chance of El Nino occurring. Mother nature could be helping the CPO price this time. According to ABM, the Pacific Ocean has shown renewed signs of El Nino development in recent weeks. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has generally been in excess of El Nino tresholds for the past three months. Climate models suggest current conditions will either persist or strengthen. The new El Nino threat may boost sentiment and drive CPO price higher, aided by seasonal price recovery in 1Q15. Investors should position for a short term trade.

November 26, 2014

TBIG melalui anak perusahaan, PT Profesional Telekomunikasi Indonesia (Protelindo) dan Protelindo Finance BV, menandatangani perjanjian pinjaman dengan beberapa bank

PT Sarana Menara Nusantara (TBIG) melalui anak perusahaan, PT Profesional Telekomunikasi Indonesia (Protelindo) dan Protelindo Finance BV, menandatangani perjanjian pinjaman dengan beberapa bank. Fasilitas pinjaman pertama berupa Term Loan Facility pada 19 November 2014 senilai 20.000.000 euro ini diraih dari ING Bank NV Singapore. Fasilitas pinjaman ini dikenakan bunga yaitu EURIBOR ditambah dengan margin 1,95%/tahun. Kedua berupa Revolving Loan Facility senilai US$50.000.000 dari DBS Bank Ltd yang jatuh tempo 19 November 2019. Ditambah penandatanganan US$100.000.000 Revolving Loan Facility Agreement pada 20 November 2014, dengan Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp cabang Singapura yang jatuh tempo 20 November 2019 dengan bunga LIBOR ditambah 1,95%/tahun. Serta perjanjian pinjaman US$90.000.000 Revolving Loan Facily dengan The Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd sebagai agen fasilitas, namun krediturnya terdiri dari BNP Paribas cabang Singapura, Credit Suisse cabang Singapura, CIMB Bank Bhd cabang Singapura, Standard Chartered cabang Dubai, Bank Mitsubishi UFJ cabang Jakarta serta JPMorgan Chase cabang Jakarta, dengan suku bunga LIBOR ditambah 1,95%/tahun.

November 26, 2014

Banking: KUR – September 2014

KUR growth slowed down further to 8.9%yoy in September 2014 as participant banks, apart from BRI, reduced KUR disbursement. Credit quality improved with overall KUR NPL declining by 30bps to 4.2% in September. Yet, the KUR NPL from Bank Sulteng’s, bjb’s and BSM’s remained above 20% level.
BRI’s aggressive approach to KUR. Total outstanding KUR stood at Rp 50.3tr in September 2014, translating into slower growth of 8.9%yoy in September from 9.5%yoy in August. However on monthly basis, new KUR disbursement increased by Rp95.3bn in September alone as opposed to contraction of –Rp183.1bn in August. We view the one month growth was mainly contributed from BRI’s portfolio which increased by Rp455bn in September. Accordingly, KUR market in September 2014 was dominated by BRI (accounted for 61.3% of total KUR market share) followed by Mandiri (15.8%), BNI (7.2%) and BTN (3.4%). Both Bank Jatim’s and bjb’s market shares stood at 2.2% in the same period. KUR contribution to total banking industry loans remained stable at an average of 1.4% since November 2013.
Improvement in credit quality. KUR NPL declined to 4.2% in September 2014 from 4.5% in August 2014, however increased from 3.2% in December 2013. Improvement was seen in BRI, BNI and Bank Jatim, whose KUR NPLs declined to 2.3%, 3.8% and 11.8% in September 2014 from 2.5%, 5.6% and 13.4% in August 2014, respectively. Meanwhile the highest KUR NPLs were recorded by Bank Sulteng and bjb at 27.7% and 20.7% in September. Bank Syariah Mandiri’s (BSM) stand-alone basis KUR NPL also increased to 20.0% in September from 19.9% in August. Regardless, Mandiri on consolidated KUR quality improved with NPL declining to 6.5% from 6.6%. BTN’s KUR NPL remained high at 11.9% in September.
Average KUR loans per debtor declined further to Rp4.2mn in September 2014 from Rp4.3mn in August 2014 whereby KUR loans per debtor declined across participant banks. Furthermore, an increase in BRI’s market share dragged down the overall average. The highest average disbursement came from BTN at Rp68.3mn (from previous average of Rp77.6mn since December 2013).

Geographical growth. Kalimantan reported the highest KUR growth at 20.6%yoy in September 2014, up from 14.8%yoy in August 2014 despite the slower banking industry growth in the region to 7.5%yoy from 9.6%yoy in the same period. Meanwhile Java-Bali’s and Sumatra’s KUR growths declined further to 8.7%yoy and 5.4%yoy in September from 10.5%yoy and 6.7%yoy in August, in line with the industry growth trend in the respective regions.
Reevaluating KUR program. The coordinating minister for economic affairs, Sofyan Djalil, plans to reevaluate the KUR program considering the disbursed funds had allegedly missed the target market whereby KUR debtors utilized the loans for household consumptions and non-productive activities. Such conducts post higher contingency risk of cumulating bad loans problems. Conjointly, a number of KUR receivers were able to make loans without the linkage government guarantee.
Maintain Neutral on banks. We expect the KUR industry to see slower loan growth and further assets quality deterioration. We keep our Neutral stance on banks with BRI as our top pick with TP of Rp13,000.

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November 26, 2014

BBRI sepanjang kuartal III-2014 mencetak pertumbuhan laba bersih sebesar +19% yoy dibandingkan dengan laba bersih pada kuartal III-2013 yang sebesar Rp 15,23 triliun

Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI) sepanjang kuartal III-2014 mencetak pertumbuhan laba bersih sebesar +19% yoy dibandingkan dengan laba bersih pada kuartal III-2013 yang sebesar Rp 15,23 triliun. Pertumbuhan laba bersih ini menghasilkan earning per share (EPS) sebesar Rp 979,6 lebih besar dari angka pada periode yang sama tahun 2013 yang sebesar Rp 823. BBRI sendiri menjadi salah satu stock pick untuk tahun 2014, mengingat pasar nya yang lebih berfokus terhadap UKM, relatif lebih kebal terhadap krisis dan juga Return on Average Equity (ROAE) sebesar 27.2% untuk 2014 ini merupakan yang tertinggi dibandingkan bank-bank besar lain nya di Indonesia. Kami memberikan TP Rp13,800 dengan rekomendasi BUY, merefleksikan 3.0x PBV15f dan 13.2x PE15f untuk BBRI.

November 26, 2014

JSMR eyes Rp 2.8tr (US$231mn) loan in 1Q15

Jasa Marga eyes Rp 2.8tr (US$231mn) loan in 1Q15. Indonesia’s largest toll road operator PT Jasa Marga plans raise Rp 2.8 trillion (US$230 million) loan to finance the Medan-Kualanamu-Tebing tinggi toll road section in the first quarter of 2015. The total investment for the project is Rp 4 trillion (US$329 million) Jasa Marga, PT Waskita Karya, PT Pembangunan Perumahan and PT Hutama Karya are jointly develop the section.

November 26, 2014

Pemilik anyar BCIC dikecualikan dari regulasi Otoritas Jasa Keuangan (OJK) mengenai kewajiban penawaran tender (tender offer)

Pemilik anyar PT Bank Mutiara Tbk (BCIC) dikecualikan dari regulasi Otoritas Jasa Keuangan (OJK) mengenai kewajiban penawaran tender (tender offer). Hal ini dinilai merupakan transaksi luar biasa (extraordinary). Otomatis, pemilik BCIC, J Trust pun tidak wajib melepas kembali kepemilikan sahamnya ke publik alias refloat.

Meskipun demikian, jika ingin tetap menjadi perusahaan terbuka, maka J-Trust harus mengikuti peraturan free floating, dimana kepemilikan saham publik di perusahaan minimal sebesar 7,5%.

November 26, 2014

PTPP Q3-14 Analyst Meeting

PT PP Tbk (PTPP) catatkan kenaikan laba bersih 33% di Q3-14 sebesar Rp 290,17 miliar dari periode Q3-13 sebesar Rp 218,35 miliar. Perolehan kontrak baru tahun ini diprediksi bisa mencapai nilai Rp 22 triliun & laba bersih diperkirakan sebesar Rp 520 miliar. Pencapaian ini selain ditopang banyaknya proyek yang diperoleh, juga berasal dari efisiensi dan efektivitas dari proyek dan operasional.

PTPP mendapat kinerja yg baik dari konstribusi seluruh pilar bisnis yang menghasilkan keuntungan, yaitu konstruksi, properti, EPC, pracetak, peralatan dan investasi.

Total order book sampai dengan minggu ke-4 Okt14 mencapai Rp 36 triliun yang terdiri dari perolehan kontrak baru sebesar Rp 14,19 triliun dan carry over sebesar Rp 21,93 triliun. 

Berikut ini proyek baru yang telah diperoleh Perseroan saat ini a.l Apartemen Sawangan di Depok, Tol Depok Antasari, Lexington Apartement di Jakarta, Wang Residence Citicon, dan lainnya dng nilai lbh dari Rp 4 triliun.

PTPP berencana kembangkan bisnis EPC untuk oil & gas dan pertambangan. Selain itu, juga melakukan investasi pada beberapa proyek a.l pada hotel, PLTU, pelabuhan, dan jalan tol serta proyek-proyek infrastruktur dan konstruksi lainnya. Tahun 2015 direncanakan properti PTPP akan IPO.

PTPP saat ini Rp2.995 P/E 29,45x. Upgrade EPS growth 15-20%. Fair value PTPP Rp3.445 P/E 33,86x

November 26, 2014

LPCK to launch Irvine Suites

PT Lippo Cikarang Tbk (LPCK) akan meluncurkan Irvine Suites di Orange County, Cikarang, pada 29 November. Unitnya akan dijual dengan rerata harga jual (ASP) mulai dari Rp500 juta per unit.

November 26, 2014

Advertising expenditure to strengthen in 2015

Belanja iklan diprediksi akan tumbuh menjadi 15% pada 2015 menjadi Rp155,25 triliun dari prediksi 2014 sebesar Rp135 triliun karena perbaikan pada kondisi politik domestik dan prospek ekonomi duniat, berdasarkan pernyataan Persatuan Perusahaan Periklanan Indonesia (PPPI).

TV masih menjadi metode iklan utama dengan pangsa pasar sebesar 67-70% dibandingkan moda iklan lainnya.

November 26, 2014

CPIN menganggarkan dana sebesar Rp5,5 triliun hingga tahun depan

PT Charoen Pokphand Indonesia Tbk (CPIN) menganggarkan dana sebesar Rp5,5 triliun hingga tahun depan. Sebesar Rp3 triliun dialokasikan tahun ini dan sebesar Rp2,5 triliun tahun depan.

November 26, 2014

Anak usaha Bina Puri Holdings Bhd yaitu PT Megapower Makmur berencana menggelar IPO pada kuartal II/2015

Anak usaha Bina Puri Holdings Bhd yaitu PT Megapower Makmur berencana menggelar IPO pada kuartal II/2015. Saat ini perusahaan sudah memiliki tujuh pembangkit listrik tenaga diesel mikro.

November 26, 2014

BMRI menargetkan di tahun 2015 pembiayaan sindikasi diatas Rp10T terutama pembiayaan sindikasi sektor infrastruktur

PT Bank Mandiri (BMRI) menargetkan di tahun 2015 pembiayaan sindikasi diatas Rp10T terutama pembiayaan sindikasi sektor infrastruktur.

November 26, 2014

1st SESSION JCI on 26.11.2014 (By: D’ORIGIN – Veni Fitriani)

IHSG @5110.47 (-8.47pts) (-0.17%)
(H: 5131.66 ; L: 5107.57)
Value: 2.172 T (NG 350 B )
Volume: 30.573 M Lot (NG 2.974 M Lot)
Foreign Nett Buy 6.45 B
Foreign Value 29.9%

*BUY (Regular)
F Buy 436.9 B
D Buy 1385.4 B
*SELL (Regular)
F Sell 442.2 B
D Sell 1380.1 B

JISDOR: 12,166/12,160
NDF:       12,164/12,166

JCI for today:
Support: 5104, 5090
Resist:    5160, 51755

MANUFACT (-0.24%) (460.98 B )
PROPERTY(+0.06%) (409.63 B )
TRADE (-0.43%) (346.18 B )
INFRA.   (-0.67%) (318.53 B )
FINANCE (+0.33%) (282.48 B )
AGRI.     (-0.63%) (189.09 B )

BBRI.   @11381 (31.05 B )
TLKM @2801 (23.59 B )
SCMA @3321 (18.53 B )
INTP.   @24775 (10.13 B )
PTBA. @13314. (8.98 B )
BMRI.  @10502(7.26 B )
ASII.    @6963.   (4.86 B )

INDF.    @6668 (12.38 B )
SSMS @1420 (11.36 B )
EXCL.  @5036 (10.27 B )
UNTR. @18154 (10.17 B )
LINK.   @5038 (6.51 B )
ADRO @1089 (6.28 B )
ELSA.  @661.   (5.32 B )

SIAP.  @269.   (+3.86%)
BBRI.  @11425 (+1.33%)
TLKM @2800 (+0.54%)
LPKR. @1130.  (-0.88%)
EXCL. @4985 (-6.82%)
ELSA. @665.   (+1.53%)
SSMS @1415 (-0.35%)
JSMR @6700 (-3.25%)

CPRO. @64.   (4.261.354 lot)
SIAP.   @269 (3.833.886 lot)
KIJA.    @305 (1.284.407 lot)
BWPT @530 (1.012.758 lot)
BKSL.  @106 (868.668 lot)
META. @203 (852.475 lot)
ELSA.  @665 (830.091 lot)
TARA @429 (754.887 lot)

“…Have a nice Lunch…”

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November 26, 2014

INAF: Change in prescription

Indofarma (INAF) is a state-owned pharmaceutical company specifically for generic and licensed drugs. Major earnings turnaround was seen in 3Q14 with net profit of Rp15.2bn (versus net loss of Rp54.2bn in 1H14) thanks to the internal restructuring implemented by the new management to reduce overburden expenses.
Generic drugs specialist. Indofarma, which went public in April 2001, is a state-owned pharmaceutical company whose main business consisted of three segments: medical, medical devices and others as well as engineering pharmaceutical whereby INAF reportedly produced up to 200 types of drugs from both generic segment and OTC brands. In any case, generic drugs contributed to 90% of INAF’s revenue making the company one of the leading pharma players in Indonesia with 18% of the generic drugs market share.
Most of the product distribution done internally. About 85% of INAF’s products were distributed by in-house distribution subsidiary under PT Indofarma Global Medika (IGM). The distribution channels specifically came from drug stores, private and government hospitals and wholesalers with proportion of 50:30:20% respectively. Conjointly up to 70% was channeled to the government hospital.
The problem started in FY2013… INAF recorded net loss of Rp54.2bn in FY2013, versus positive net profit of Rp42.4bn in FY2012. This major earnings loss in 2013 was due to higher raw materials cost (60-70% were imported) considering 26%yoy IDR depreciation and higher operating expenses from 18%yoy increase in minimum wage. Specifically their gross and EBIT margins declined to 25.2% and -2.4% in FY2013 from 31.8% and 7.2% in FY2012. On top of that, INAF suffered from production facility disruptions due to major renovation ca February-July 2013 which resulted in higher manufacturing expenses.
Strong improvements under the new management. Strong earnings turnaround was seen in 3Q14 with net profit of Rp15.2bn (versus net loss of Rp54.2bn in 1H14) thanks to the internal restructuring. Four strategies implemented by the new management to reduce overburden expenses included: 1) lower discount offers 2) change in customer portfolio mix, 3) reduction in salary expenses, and 4) optimization of toll manufacturing companies. As a result EBIT margin improved to -2.0% in 9M14 from -12.0% in 1H14.

November 26, 2014

PTPP menganggarkan belanja modal tahun 2015 sebesar Rp1,8 triliun

PTPP menganggarkan belanja modal tahun 2015 sebesar Rp1,8 triliun, naik 286% dibandingkan dengan alokasi tahun ini Rp466 miliar. Dari total belanja modal 2015, sebesar Rp800 miliar dialokasikan untuk proyek properti. Selain itu, PTPP juga membidik proyek lain terutama di sektor pembangkit, jalan tol, pelabuhan, dan proyek lainnya. PTPP juga menargetkan kontrak baru 2015 sebesar Rp27,5 triliun, tumbuh 25% dibandingkan target perolehan tahun ini sebesar Rp22 triliun. Sebesar 35% berasal dari proyek pemerintah, sementara 65% proyek BUMN dan swasta.

November 26, 2014

Transportation fare increase due to fuel price hike

Transportation fare increase due to fuel price hike:

Fares on Jakarta’s non air-conditioned public transportation – such as public minivans and minibuses – are set to officially increase starting Tuesday (Nov 25th). The fares for public minivans and minibuses each increased by Rp1,000 (US 8cents), a 20-33% from the previous rates that ranges from Rp3,000 to Rp5,000 (US 25-41 cents). Meanwhile, the fare for the city-owned Transjakarta services will stay at Rp3,500 (US 29cents). Other modes of public transportation, such as taxis and air-conditioned buses, are expected to follow suit shortly.

State Railway company (KAI) to increase its fares in 2015 as it estimates 10-15% increase in operational costs this year. However, KAI has not decided on how much it will increase its fares. In addition, KAI is looking for Rp1.8tr (US$149mn) syndication loan from BBRI, BMRI, BBNI, and BBCA to build the railway to connect Soekarno-Hatta airport. The company targets that the railway is completed by August 2015.

Comment: We expect inflation to spike to 7.3-7.5% as a result of the 31-36% increase in fuel price – as public transportation fares increase as well as expected price adjustments by manufacturers to pass on higher cost. Consumption will slow in near term, but we expect a strong rebound by 3Q15.

November 26, 2014

ICBP to acquire Milkuat

Indofood CBP (ICBP) to fully acquire PT Danone Dairy Indonesia, including the brand and industry design for Milkuat – one of the country’s major liquid milk brands, for IDR250b (USD21m). The acquisition is expected to expand liquid milk contribution to ICBP’s dairy business and thus, drive a stronger growth. Liquid milk is the strongest growth milk segment in Indonesia with estimated growth of 17% per annum over the past three years. The expansion is dairy business is expected to lead to more balanced product portfolio (between staple and discretionary) for Indofood CBP which is still now dominated by instant noodle.

November 26, 2014

Industri Semen Indonesia di penghujung 2014 ini terkena imbas negatif terhadap pelemahan rupiah terhadap US dollar

Industri Semen Indonesia di penghujung 2014 ini terkena imbas negatif terhadap pelemahan rupiah terhadap US dollar. Kenaikan nilai tukar dollar terhadap rupiah membuat harga raw material naik cukup tinggi. Dengan 60% dari biaya produksi mereka yang dalam bentuk US dollar, maka kami perkirakan biaya produksi produsen semen akan meningkat. Persaingan antara produsen di dalam negeri pun membuat produsen semen tidak bisa serta merta menaikan harga jual semen mereka. Indocement (INTP) contoh nya, mengalami kenaikan biaya produksi sebesar +10.6% yoy, sementara average selling price (ASP) atau harga jual rata-rata INTP hanya sebesar +4.4% yoy. Hal serupa terjadi dengan Semen Indonesia (SMGR), dimana emiten hanya dapat menaikan ASP mereka sebesar +6.9% yoyo, dimana kenaikan ini berada dibawah kenaikan COGS mereka yang sebesar +7.6% yoy. Hal ini menyebabkan marjin emiten-emiten semen tersebut turun. Kami menurunkan rekomendasi untuk SMGR dan INTP dari BUY menjadi NEUTRAL, dengan men-downgrade target laba dan nilai wajar mereka.

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November 26, 2014

Indonesia apprehends 5 foreign ships with 61 crews in Natuna water

Indonesia apprehends 5 foreign ships with 61 crews in Natuna water. The ships have 101-103 gross tone (GT) weight load. The ships carry fake Indonesian fishing licenses and not registered in in Vessel Monitoring System (VMS) as they are not registered. The crews have Thailand nationality. Indonesia lose some Rp300tn (US$26bn) p.a. from illegal fishing.

November 26, 2014

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