ISAT berencana membayar kompensasi Rp1,3 triliun kepada pemerintah untuk penyalahgunaan High Speed Downlink Packing akses jaringan (HSDPA)

PT Indosat Tbk (ISAT) berencana membayar kompensasi Rp1,3 triliun kepada pemerintah untuk penyalahgunaan High Speed Downlink Packing akses jaringan (HSDPA). Rincian tentang mekanisme pembayaran tersebut saat ini sedang dinegosiasikan.

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October 22, 2014

SMGR berencana membangun pabrik semen dengan kapasitas maks 3 juta ton/ tahun di Aceh mulai tahun 2016

PT Semen Indonesia Tbk (SMGR) berencana membangun pabrik semen dengan kapasitas maks 3 juta ton/ tahun di Aceh mulai tahun 2016. Biaya investasi pembangunan tersebut akan mencapai Rp3,84 triliun.

Pabrik semen baru ini memungkinkan distribusi semen ke Aceh, Riau dan lain-lain. Sementara itu, SMGR memutuskan untuk menaikkan harga jual semen sebesar Rp15.000-Rp20.000 per ton pada bulan Oktober karena biaya produksi meningkat.

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October 22, 2014

MDRN telah melepas 10% saham baru kepada CIMB Private Equity senilai US$25 juta melalui aksi penambahan modal tanpa hak memesan efek terlebih dahulu

PT Modern Internasional Tbk (MDRN) telah melepas 10% saham baru kepada CIMB Private Equity senilai US$25 juta melalui aksi penambahan modal tanpa hak memesan efek terlebih dahulu. Penambahan modal tersebut dilakukan untuk mendukung ekspansi anak usaha MDRN, yaitu PT Modern Sevel Indonesia, selaku pemegang franchise 7-Eleven di Indonesia. Saat ini, 7-Eleven telah memiliki 175 outlet yang tersebar di wilayah DKI Jakarta.

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October 22, 2014

IDR – Tactically constructive

Jokowi takes office as Indonesia’s 7th President today, and we believe this
event should be traded. We turned neutral (from bearish) on USD/IDR late last
month, and now recommend turning tactically constructive for four reasons.

1. Political risk premium should compress, with potential positive catalysts this
week. Since the July election, markets have absorbed a stream of negative
political headlines from Prabowo’s Constitutional Court challenge, Jokowi’s
coalition paralysis, the direct election bill scare, the loss of parliamentary
speaker posts to the opposition, and even fears of impeachment. A lot of bad
news we feel is now in the price. And the news itself could be getting more
constructive. On Friday, in a surprise move, Prabowo finally acknowledged
Jokowi’s victory, and even announced conditional support of his coalition. PPP
has meanwhile officially joined Jokowi’s coalition, bringing his strength in
Parliament to 44% of seats, comparable to the opposition’s 45% (Chart 1).
Jokowi will announce his Cabinet this week, having promised that 18 out of 33
ministerial posts will go to professionals. The appointment of credible
technocrats, particularly in the economic ministries, would be a significant
market positive. With political sentiment improving there is again scope for
IDR to outperform Asian FX, as it did during earlier periods of political positivity
this year (Chart 2).

2. Valuations and levels look appealing. USD/IDR is sitting near post-crisis
highs, and resisted breaking higher during recent market turmoil. This is in
sharp contrast to USD/INR, which was trading 15% below its highs the day PM
Modi took power. IDR is also undervalued by over 5% on three out of the four
models we track (Chart 3). The exception is our FEER model, which signals the
FX adjustment required to return Indonesia’s sticky current account deficit to
healthier long-term average levels. Although FEER still shows a large
overvaluation, this model’s signal too could soften.

3. Indonesia’s oil trade balance is slated to improve. The combination of a
sharp drop in global oil prices, and an imminent fuel-price hike, could finally
turn the stubborn current account deficit. Over a third of Indonesia’s trade
account deterioration since end-2010 has been because of worsening in the oil
balance (Chart 4). The oil deficit has been sticky in the face of FX depreciation
and slower growth, and has coincided with a ballooning in the fuel subsidy.
However, the subsidy could soon shrink back to healthier 2010 levels. Based
on a simple relationship, a Rp2000 price hike could now be consistent with a
$1.2bn/month improvement in the trade balance, or a 1.5% of GDP
improvement in the current account (Chart 5). Recent media reports (Reuters)
indicate that Jokowi is still considering a hike of up to Rp3000/liter in the next
two weeks.

4. The recent repricing of the Fed gives more space to deficit-carry currencies
like IDR. Global long-end yields are set to remain low for the near future,
removing one of the biggest threats to EM carry, and helping to anchor
existing offshore debt money in markets like Indonesia (Chart 6). Note also that
onshore debt supply is running out for the year.

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October 22, 2014

Banking: August 2014 data – loan growth slowing, NPL rising

Di saat total kredit menunjukkan tren perlambatan, +14% YoY, kredit bermasalah naik lagi menjadi 2,31% pada Agustus vs 2,24% pada Juli.

Mandiri Sekuritas memprediksi pertumbuhan kredit tumbuh <15% pada 2014 dengan potensi adanya kenaikan kredit tidak lancar (NPL) dalam beberapa bulan ke depan sebelum perbankan mulai membersihkan portofolionya pada akhir tahun.

Kami masih tetap NEUTRAL pada sektor perbankan dengan saham PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia Tbk (BBRI) sebagai top pick kami.

***

Loan growth slided further to 14.0% YoY in August. Bulan ini menjadi bulan kesebelas total kredit dibukukan tumbuh lebih rendah daripada bulan sebelumnya. Dengan faktor adanya depresiasi rupiah sebesar 7% dalam setahun terakhir, pertumbuhan kredit industri hanya dibukukan 12,8% YoY jika menggunakan asumsi nilai tukar yang sama dengan posisi setahun yang lalu.

Kredit modal kerja naik 14,4% YoY, kredit investasi tumbuh 17,6%, dan kredit konsumsi 10,6%. Di antara seluruh pulau, kredit di Sumatra, Kalimantan, dan Sulawesi masih tetap lemah, dibukukan lebih rendah daripada pertumbuhan 10% YoY, sedangkan Jawa & Bali membukukan pertumbuhan kredit 14,8% YoY.

Di antara perbankan, bank non-devisa membukukan pertumbuhan kredit yang lebih tinggi yaitu 17% YoY sedangkan bank patungan memprediksi kredit mereka berkontraksi 2% YoY.

Di antara industri utama (berporsi >5% dari total kredit), kredit agrikultur & hutan membukukan pertumbuhan 26% YoY, transportasi, pabrik, & komunikasi 21%, industri pemrosesan 17%, rumah tangga 15% (di antaranya rumah tapak 13% YoY), dan perdangangan serta grosir 14%.

Deposit growth improved to 12.1% YoY, LDR declined to 90.7% in August. Sebagian besar pertumbuhan dibukukan oleh deposito berjangka yang tumbuh hampir 20% YoY sedangkan CASA naik 6% YoY. Kondisi itu membentuk penurunan rasio kredit terhadap DPK (LDR) menjadi 90,7% dari 92,3% pada Juli.

Kalimantan masih tetap menjadi daerah yang paling lemah untuk posisi DPK, tumbuh 5,8% YoY sedangkan kawasan Timur Indonesia (KTI) dibukukan tinggi yaitu 17,8% YoY.

NPL rose in the second month to 2.31% in August. NPL tumbuh 36% YoY menjadi Rp80,7 triliun dengan posisi kenaikan NPL untuk bulan kedua menjadi sebesar 2,31% dari 2,24% pada Juli. Yang kontras, kredit Kategori 2 turun menjadi 4,5% pada Agustus dari 4,9% pada Juli.

NPL pada kredit investasi membukukan penurunan paling tajam yaitu menjadi 2,58% dari 2,37%. Berdasarkan tipe bank, semua bank lokal di luar bank asing membukukan kenaikan NPL. Berdasarkan daerah, NPL Kalimantan dan KTI justru memiliki NPL yang membaik dan daerah lain membukukan penurunan kualitas aset.

Berdasarkan industri, NPL sektor konstruksi masih naik menjadi 4,6% dari 4,41% (tertinggi di antara industri lain) sedangkan di sektor tambang turun menjadi 2,47% dari 3,09%. NPL di sektor perdagangan grosir dan ritel naik menjadi 3,27% (3,18%), dan di sektor pelaynanan umum naik menjadi 3,87% (dari 3,73%).

Interest rates were adjusted down again. Meskipun ada kenaikan suku bunga deposito sebesar 233bps menjadi 8,46% untuk tenor 1 bulan dan 324bps menjadi 9,52% untuk tenor 3 bulan, rerata suku bunga sudah turun pada Agustus, terutama di bank swasta nasional.

Rerata suku bunga untuk kredit modal kerja turun 16bps menjadi 12,54%, untuk kredit investasi turun 15bps menjadi 12,17%, sedangkan kredit konsumsi turun 1bps menjadi 13,31%. Rerata bunga deposito tenor 1 bulan naik 2bps menjadi 8,46%. Rerata bunga deposito tenor 1 bulan dan 3 bulan sudah naik masing-masing sebesar 233bps dan 324bps dalam 12 bulan terakhir.

Maintain Neutral on banks. Kami memprediksi industri akan menghadapi pertumbuhan kredit yang melambat dan kualitas aset yang menurun.

Indikasinya terlihat dari permintaan kredit yang tidak sejalan dengan ekspektasi dan meskipun Mandiri Sekuritas memprediksi pertumbuhan kredit industri naik <15% pada 2014 sedangkan NPL naik dalam beberapa bulan ke depan sebelum sebelum adanya write off dalam jumlah besar pada Desember.

Kami masih menetapkan kembali rekomendasi NEUTRAL pada sektor perbankan dengan BBRI sebagai pilihan utama dengan TP Rp13.000.

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October 22, 2014

WTON: CLT Acquisition a Possible Boost To Growth

We visited CLT recently, which Wijaya Karya Beton (WTON) acquired 90% of on 10 Sep. Note that, at the same time, its parent Wijaya Karya (WIKA) also acquired the remaining 10%. Total acquisition value was USD23.5m. Currently, CLT has an annual design capacity of 100,000 tonnes of spun pile precast, while its used capacity is ~50,000 tonnes per year.
¨ A positive move. We view the acquisition as a very positive move by Wika Karya Beton. PT Citra Lautan Teduh (CLT), situated on a 27.5ha site, is a private company with no competitors in Batam, Indonesia, and its surrounding areas. It produces pre-tensioned spun concrete piles, is strategically located near the offshore area and is already equipped with its own jetty that is able to facilitate vessels with a loading capacity of up to 8,000 deadweight tonnage (DWT). The majority of its shipments are transported via sea, which is cheaper vis-à-vis land transportation.
¨ Expansion strategy. Post-acquisition, CLT’s management was restructured to ensure greater operational efficiency that is comparable to its parent company. CLT plans to build an additional production plant with 45,000 tonnes by 2015 and targets to have five production plants with total estimated capacity to reach 300,000 tonnes by 2018. This ought to fulfil the demand stemming from Batam Island and the surrounding areas. Management also said that Batam’s local government have plans for major projects starting in 2015, eg flyovers, toll roads, island-connecting bridges and potential mass rapid transit (MRT) projects.
¨ Extending sales scope. Currently, CLT is catering to demand from Batam and nearby islands. With the additional capacity in 2015, management is targeting to penetrate the Malaysian market, starting from Johor Bahru onwards. It also plans to meet demand for the development of the 328ha Funtasy Island in Bintan, Riau, which, according to the project owners, is targeted to rival Universal Studios in Singapore by 2017. CLT also maintains close ties with its partners and local authorities in order to educate them about the more efficient precast products vis-à-vis conventional bore-pile products and methods. CLT’s management is projecting a FY15 revenue at IDR150bn.

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October 22, 2014

August 2014 data – loan growth slowing, NPL rising

While total loans showed declining trend, growing at 14% y-y, problem loans started to rise again to 2.31% in August vs. 2.24% in July. We expect loan growth at <15% in 2014 with NPL rising in the coming months before banks started to clean them up at the yearend. Maintain Neutral on banks with BRI as our top pick.

Loan growth slided further to 14.0% y-y in August. This is the eleventh month total loans reported lower growth rate than in the previous month. Factoring the 7% rupiah depreciation in the past one year, industry loan growth was only 12.8% y-y if we fix the exchange rate at the same level as one year ago. Working capital loans grew 14.4% y-y, investment loans 17.6% and consumption loans 10.6%. Among the islands, Sumatra, Kalimantan and Sulawesi remained weak, posting less than 10% y-y loan growth while Java & Bali saw 14.8% y-y loan growth. Among the banks, non-forex banks recorded the highest loan growth at 17% y-y while joint venture banks saw their loans contracting by 2% y-y. Among the major industries (accounting for >5% of total loans), loans to agriculture & forestry posted 26% y-y growth rate, transport , warehousing & communication 21%, processing industry 17%, household 15% (of which landed houses 13% y-y) and whole and trade 14%.

Deposit growth improved to 12.1% y-y, LDR declined to 90.7% in August. Most of the growth came from time deposits which grew almost 20% y-y while CASA deposits increased 6% y-y. This resulted in declining LDR level to 90.7% from 92.3% in July. Among the area, Kalimantan remained the weakest area for deposit taking, growing at 5.8% y-y while the the Eastern part of Indonesia the highest at 17.8% y-y.

NPL rose in the second month to 2.31% in August. NPL rose 36% y-y to Rp80.7tr with the NPL level rising again for the second month to 2.31% from 2.24% in July. In contrast, category 2 loans declined to 4.5% in August from 4.9% in July. NPL in investment loans saw the steepest decline to 2.58% from 2.37%. Among the bank types, all local banks except foreign owned banks saw their NPL increasing. Location wise, NPL in Kalimantan and the Eastern part of Indonesia saw improving NPL while the rest of the area experienced worsening assets quality. Based on industry, NPL in the construction industry kept increasing to 4.60% from 4.41% (the highest among industries) while in mining declined to 2.47% from 3.09%. NPL in wholesale & retail trade increased to 3.27% (3.18%) and in community services to 3.87% (3.73%).

Interest rates were adjusted down again. Despite the rising time deposit rates, which increased 233bps to 8.46% for 1M and 324bps to 9.52% for 3M, average lending rates were reduced in August, particularly in private national banks. Average lending rate for working capital loans declined 16bps to 12.54%, for investment loans down 15bps to 12.17% while for consumer loans reduced 1bp to 13.31%. Average 1M time deposit rates increased 2bps to 8.46%. Average 1M and 3M T/D rates have increased 233bps and 324bps in the past twelve months.

Maintain Neutral on banks. We expect the industry to see slower loan growth and deteriorating assets quality. Indication from banks is that loan demand has not been in line with expectations and hence we expect industry loan growth <15% in 2014 while NPL is likely to continue rising in the coming months before major write off in December. We keep our Neutral stance on banks with BRI as our top pick with TP of Rp13,000.

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October 22, 2014

Panin Sekuritas – 22 Okt 2014

Bursa Amerika kemarin ditutup meningkat didorong keluarnya kinerja keuangan emiten kuartal ketiga 2014 yang lebih baik dari ekspektasi. Sektor teknologi seperti Apple, Texas instruments dan United technologies mendorong pergerakan bursa global. Dow +1.31%; S&P +1.96%; Nasdaq +2.40%. Sedangkan bursa regional kemarin ditutup rata-rata meningkat.

KekhawatiranBank Sentral Eropa akan membeli obligasi perusahaan pada secondary markets bila program pembelian aset saat ini dinilai gagal untuk mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi zona Eropa. Kemarin data pertumbuhan PDB China 3Q14 7,3% yoy (vs 2Q14 7,5% yoy; cons: 7,2% yoy). Data industrial output Sept China +8% yoy. Sedangkan, retail sales dan fixed asset investment Sept China dibawah ekspektasi konsensus. Isu kekhawatiran Ebola membaik seiring berhasilnya beberapa negara yang sebelumnya terjangkiti menjadi bersih.  

Dari domestik, fokus investor domestik tertuju pada susunan kabinet pemerintahan Jokowi-JK yang akan diumumkan akhir minggu ini. Wapres Jusuf Kalla menyatakan pemerintah akan membangun pembangkit listrik sebesar 25MW pada 2015. Hasil stress test dari BI pada Okt 2014: sistem keuangan domestik memiliki daya tahan yang kuat menghadapi pembalikan modal asing. Rupiah pagi ini Rp12020. IHSG hari ini diperkirakan akan meningkat didorong dari sentiment positif bursa global. 
Trading: GIAA, WSKT, PWON, LPKR, BBCA, JSMR. Spekulasi: MLPL, META.
Panin Sekuritas

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October 22, 2014

LPKR: Marketing sales to the rescue?

 3Q14 marketing sales for LPKR could provide a respite, but we
are cautious on the outlook and expect moderation in growth

 Lower RNAV by 8% to IDR1,390 (from IDR1,517)

 Reiterate OW on valuation but lower TP by 17% to IDR1,250
(from IDR1,515) on lower RNAV and higher target discount

3Q14 marketing sales for LPKR could provide a respite, but we are cautious on the
outlook and expect moderation in growth: 3Q14 marketing sales for LPKR could offer a
respite after the large cut in core marketing sales (excluding asset sales to REITs) for FY14
announced earlier – recall, marketing sales were cut from cIDR6.8trn (set initially) to
cIDR4.7trn. Based on launches at Lippo Village and Lippo Cikarang, we estimate 3Q14
marketing sales could exceed IDR2trn (this excludes post-3Q14 sales of cIDR500bn at
Holland Village). LPKR’s 9M14 marketing sales could thus exceed IDR3.6trn – and
including Holland Village, year-to-date marketing sales could exceed IDR4.1trn, putting the
revised FY14 marketing sales figure well within reach. Despite this, we are cautious on the
outlook for Indonesia’s property sector, given the current regulatory and macro environment,
and expect moderation in growth. Therefore, we lower our assumed pace of launches and
growth over the next few years, resulting in a 9% cut in earnings estimates for FY14 and a
14% cut in earnings estimates for FY15. After the revisions, relative to Bloomberg consensus,
on earnings estimates, we are 3% higher FY14 and 9% higher for FY15.

Lower RNAV by 8% to IDR1,390 (from IDR1,517): We roll forward our RNAV
analysis to FY15 and raise our discount rate assumptions for the land valuation to 18%
(from 15%). This affects the valuation of LPKR’s land parcels held under Urban
Developments, as well as Large-Scale Integrated Developments. Accordingly, we lower
our RNAV estimate for LPKR by 8% to IDR1,390 (from IDR1,517).

Reiterate OW on valuation but lower TP by 17% to IDR1,250 (from IDR1,515) on
lower RNAV and higher target discount: Our TP for LPKR is based on our new RNAV
estimate, overlaid with our qualitative premium/discount framework. As we expect a more
moderate pace of RNAV expansion beyond FY15 under the current regulatory and macro
environment, we set our TP at a higher target discount of 10% to RNAV (vs. in line with
RNAV previously). Therefore, we lower our TP by 17% to IDR1,250 (from IDR1,515) and
reiterate our OW rating on valuation. LPKR is currently trading at 14.0x FY14 estimated
earnings with estimated FY14-15 EPS growth of 9.3%. As a potential catalyst, we note that
the recently proposed changes to Singapore’s REIT regulations, if implemented, would be a
positive for LPKR, as it would help LPKR fast track the recycling of its assets. We
introduce our 2016 estimates in this note.

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October 22, 2014

KKGI mengakuisisi kepemilikan saham PT Khatulistiwa Hidro Energi dari PT Bumi Raya Utama dan Hendro Martowardojo

PT Resources Alam Indonesia (KKGI) mengakuisisi kepemilikan saham PT Khatulistiwa Hidro Energi dari PT Bumi Raya Utama dan Hendro Martowardojo. PT Khatulistiwa Hidro Energi adalah pemegang 95% saham PT Bias Petrasia Persada, sebuah perusahaan yang bergerak di bidang PLTA.

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October 22, 2014

Polaris Ltd membatalkan rencana menambah kepemilikan saham di TRIO

Polaris Ltd membatalkan rencana menambah kepemilikan saham di PT Trikomsel Oke Tbk (TRIO), lewat pembelian 4,91% saham yang dipegang Asia Century Ventures Ltd dan 0,23% lainnya melalui mekanisme pasar. Dewan direksi Polaris dan Asia Century Ventures sepakat menghentikan penghentian jual beli saham tersebut karena adanya perubahan kondisi pasar. Awalnya, Polaris akan mengeluarkan dana US$43,08 juta atas transaksi tersebut.

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October 22, 2014

Dari belanja modal (capital expenditure/capex) Rp1 triliun, AISA telah mengalokasikan Rp400 miliar-Rp500 miliar untuk pembangunan pabrik penggilingan padi kelima dan keenam

Dari belanja modal (capital expenditure/capex) Rp1 triliun, PT Tiga Pilar Sejahtera Food Tbk (AISA) telah mengalokasikan Rp400 miliar-Rp500 miliar untuk pembangunan pabrik penggilingan padi kelima dan keenam. Sebesar Rp150 miliar lainnya dialokasikan untuk perluasan pabrik Taro.

Dana Rp250 miliar akan dialokasikan untuk ekspansi aset kelapa sawit dan Rp100 miliar sisanya untuk pengembangan terkait makanan lainnya. Belanja modal perusahaan pada tahun 2015 sendiri 48% lebih tinggi dari 2014 yang senilai Rp676 miliar.

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October 22, 2014

MPPA: Cementing its leadership

We take a positive view of MPPA’s aggressive 5-year expansion plan which it announced during our Europe NDR. The aim is to cement its market leadership in the big-box category in Indonesia. The company expects to expand its network from the current 101 stores to 260 stores by the end of 2020. This translates into roughly 25 new stores p.a., all of which will be self-financed. MPPA’s cash-generative and asset-light business model is a key attraction compared to its food retailer peers. We maintain our Add rating and lift our DCF-based target price (WACC: 12.5%) after rolling it forward to end-2015. Potential catalysts include better-than-expected same-store sales growth and higher operating leverage as Hypermart grows in scale.

What Happened
During the MPPA non-deal roadshow (NDR), management confirmed that its next growth strategy will be an outer island (ex-Java) focus. Currently, revenue contribution from Java stores is c.60% of consolidated revenue. The company expects this to reverse by end-2020, with outer islands contributing 60% of consolidated revenue. YTD, MPPA has opened two new stores with an average size of 5.8k sq m. This brings MPPA’s total stores to 101 and gross selling space to c.616k sq m. With its scale and track record, MPPA has a competitive advantage over its peers, being the first mover in second- and third-tier cities.

What We Think
The underlying question for most investors is the sustainability of the big-box format relative to the convenience store format in the medium-to long-term. Quoting Euromonitor, management is confident that there is still huge scope for MPPA as modern grocery stores made up only 16.5% of Indonesia’s grocery retail value at end-13. Management also reiterated the compact size of 6k sq m on average for its hypermarkets relative to peers’ 8k-10k sq m. This has made it more nimble in terms of rolling out a hypermarket in the smaller grade b shopping malls located in the tertiary cities.

What You Should Do
MPPA’s higher-margin and asset-light strategy of focusing on expansion to the outer islands makes it an attractive investment proposition, in our view. MPPA’s rising returns and defensiveness against a retail downcycle due to the nature of the products it sells provide an entry point for those looking for an exposure to Indonesia’s fast-growing food retailing business.

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October 22, 2014

MARKET REVIEWWEDNESDAY 22 OCTOBER 2014

SELAMAT MORNING…”Kombinasi naiknya harga saham Apple, Texas Instrument & United Technologies akibat kuatnya pertumbuhan revenue & earnings emiten Q3/2014 & tindakan Bank Sentral Eropa yang akan membeli obligasi corporasi serta naiknya data US existing home sales bulan Septmber naik +2.4% menjadi faktor pendorong DJIA menguat tajam +215.14 poin (+1.31%) ditengah sepinya perdagangan Selasa tercermin dlm vol perdagangan berjumlah 7.2 miliar saham (lebih kecil dibandingkan rata-rata perdagangan dari awal hingga 21 Oktober berjumlah 8.3 miliar saham).IHSG diperkirakan berpeluang menguat terbatas dalam perdagangan Rabu merujuk kenaikan tajam DJIA sebesar +1.31% & EIDO +0.8%, akan tetapi nampaknya himbauan Presiden melalui Pidato saat dilantik menjadi Presiden RI untuk Kerja..Kerja..Kerja dalam waktu dekat ini belum bisa terwujud karena seperti diketahui setelah ada masukan dari KPK & PPATK bahwa ada 5 nama dari 33 nama yang dicalonkan mendapat rapor merah dan kuning, Jokowi-JK batal mengumumkan susunan kabinet Selasa malam. Mengutip salah satu media online nasional, 3 dari 5 nama yg diduga bermasalah tsb berinisial SMI, MI & BG.DJIA +215.14 +1.31% 16614.81NASDAQ +103.40 +2.40% 4419.48S&P +37.27 +1.96% 1941.28GOLD +4.3 +0.35% 1249.00OIL  +0.69 +0.84% 82.60 TIN +55 +0.28% 19,340NICKEL -70 -0.46% 15,300CPO +4 +0.19%  2,13EIDO +0.22 +0.80% $27.61TLK 46.29 (2,867)IDR 12,001Wednesday IDX Range: 5,110 – 5,079 BUY: TLKM, WIKA, TBIG, ADHI, KLBF, UNVR, PTPP, CPIN, ICBPBOW: INTP, BMRI, JSMR, SMGR, CTRA, BBRI

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October 22, 2014

Earnings and Housing Reports Helping Hoist Stocks

The domestic equity markets are moving higher in late-morning action, extending their rebound from last week’s volatility-fueled decline, supported by some upbeat earnings reports and a stronger-than-expected read on existing home sales. Apple easily bested analysts’ quarterly expectations and offered positive guidance, while Dow member Verizon Communications’ earnings miss is being overshadowed by relatively favorable subscriber figures. However, the Dow is lagging behind following mixed results from McDonald’s, Coca-Cola, Travelers and United Technologies. Elsewhere, European stocks are gaining ground to help sentiment, aided by some upbeat earnings reports in the region and speculation that the European Central Bank may provide further stimulus measures. Gold, crude oil and the U.S. dollar are all higher, while Treasuries are trading lower. In other overseas action, Asian stocks finished mixed as slightly stronger-than-expected Chinese 3Q GDP data was met with other diverging reads on the nation’s economic growth, while some strength in the yen weighed on Japanese markets.

Markets Start the Week Higher

Despite an empty economic calendar and light news on the earnings front, the U.S. equity markets finished the first trading day of the week in the green. Strength in consumer and material stocks gave the markets a boost, but a sharp profit miss from IBM tempered gains in the Dow. Elsewhere, Treasuries ended modestly higher, gold prices were up, but crude oil prices and the U.S. dollar were lower. In other equity news, Hasbro slightly beat the Street’s expectations, while Canadian Pacific Railway confirmed exploratory merger talks with CSX Corp have come to an end.

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October 21, 2014

MNCN: Hardships ahead

Hardships ahead
§ Declining ad spends by FMCGs: As Indonesia’s largest multimedia player, MNCN is experiencing the effects of slower industry-wide ad spends due to the economic slowdown, despite a 40% market share in three free-to-air channels – MNC TV, RCTI and Global TV. Fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies in particular contribute 70% of total revenue (exhibit 10), such as UNVR, INDF, KLBF, MYOR and TSPC have been reducing ad spends as a percentage of sales (exhibit 7) stemming from less aggressive product launches, particularly during the economic downturn, in order to save costs. In the interim, some FMCG companies such as KLBF are opting to directly market to customers in the belief that it is more cost-effective. This report marks a transfer of analyst coverage.

§ Lower operational margin compared to peers: Compared to peers such as SCMA, MNCN’s operational margin is approximately 8% lower at only about 39% on average, partly as it has diversified into other media such as radio, newspapers and magazines. We expect its margin to shrink by 2-3% on the anticipated fuel-price hike as well as minimum wage increases.

Outlook: Intense competition and lack of competitive advantage
MNCN is facing tight competition with its main competitor, SCMA, in terms of audience share. As shown in exhibit 9, SCMA’s TV shows have been in leading positions to-date in October 2014. In addition, unlike SCMA, MNCN does not have an internal production house; having one would help EBIT margins as content costs would likely increase following inflation.

Recommendation: Lofty valuation; TP cut to IDR2,300, retain Reduce
With an unexciting 2015 macro outlook, we expect MNCN’s advertising growth rate to remain sluggish (as evidenced in 2013 at 4%). We reduce our 12-month TP to IDR2,300 from IDR2,400, based on 18x our lower 2015F EPS of IDR128, equating to a 20% discount to the stock’s regional peers considering its lower margin compare to its peers and the absence of internal production. A risk to our call would be higher-than-expected economic growth. Due to the sluggish macro outlook, in 2015 we expect MNCN to record only 8% y-y revenue growth vs. 9% y-y growth in 2014F (1H14: 7.6%).

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October 21, 2014

PTBA Akuisisi Saham Bumi Sawindo Permai

PT Perusahaan Tambang Bukit Asam Tbk (PTBA) mengakuisisi saham milik PT Bumi Sawindo Permai (BSP), perusahaan perkebunan kelapa sawit di Tanjung Enim, Sumatera Selatan.

Tercatat, PTBA mengakuisisi 100 persen saham milik PT BSP seluas 8.346 hektare (Ha), yang merupakan bagian dari wilayah Izin Usaha Pertambangan PTBA.

“Dalam lahan perkebunan yang diakuisisi tersebut terdapat cadangan batu bara sebesar 580 juta ton dari total cadangan sebesar 1,99 miliar ton yang dimiliki oleh PTBA,” demikian dilansir dari keterbukaan informasi ke Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI), Selasa (21/10/2014).

Artinya, keberadaan perkebunan tersebut akan menjadi sebuah sinergi yang positif dan strategis untuk pengembangan grup usaha PTBA, khususnya dalam pemenuhan pasokan batubara bagu PLTU Mulut Tambang yang sedang dalam tahap pembangunan, dan proyek PLTU Mulut Tambang lainnya.

Di antara PLTU Mulut Tambang yang batubaranya dipersiapakan dari lahan perkebunan tersebut, adalah PLTU Banko Tengah 2×620 mw (Sumsel 8) yang akan dibangun oleh anak perusahaan PTBA, PT Huadian Bukit Asam Power. PLTU ini rencananya akan beroperasi pada 2017-2018 mendatang untuk memenuhi kebutuhan listrik di Sumatera dan Jawa. PLTU ini diprediksi membutuhkan batubara sekira 5,4 juta ton per tahun, atau 150 juta ton selama 25 tahun.

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October 21, 2014

GGRM: New excise tax is of less benefit

New excise tax is of less benefit
We cut our 2015E/16E EBIT margins 60/110bps. We think that the new excise tax, in
which the government has decided to raise the taxes on machine-rolled cigarettes
(SKM) by 7-17%, but by a mere 4-8% for hand-rolled cigarettes (SKT), will increase
production costs for SKM, which accounts for almost 90% of Gudang Garam’s (GGRM)
overall sales volume. This is made worse by a lack of pricing flexibility and potentially
higher ads spending.

Market share over near-term profitability
We think GGRM will opt for a sustainable market share in the current competitive
market in the inflationary environment. Pricing flexibility is capped by a 2-8% narrower
price gap between its products and competitors and a potential decline in consumers’
purchasing power. While we have cut our 2015/16 ASP increase estimates 70/180bps,
the lower ASP should lead to higher sales volume, in our view, and we increase our
YoY sales volume estimates 4%/6%.

Ads spending to pick up
We also think GGRM will increase its ads spending in 2015, after slowing this year amid
tighter regulations set by the government during an election year. We expect the need
to keep its sustained volume sales will come at the expense of 28%/14% higher ads
spending in 2015/16 or around 2.8%/2.8% of sales from this year’s 2.4% of sales. A
combination of a lack of price increases and higher selling expenses are key drivers for
our reduced EBIT margin in 2015E/16E.

Valuation: Neutral rating; raise price target from Rp60,800 to Rp65,500
We derive our price target from a DCF-based methodology and explicitly forecast long
term valuation drivers using UBS’s VCAM tool. We assume a lower risk-free rate of
8.2% (from previously 8.5%) and an 11.5% WACC. Our price target implies 21x
2015E PE.

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October 21, 2014

Kembangkan 7-Eleven, MDRN Gandeng CIMB Untuk Investasi Saham Ekuitas

Untuk mengembangkan anak usahanya, PT Modern Sevel Indonesia (MSI), PT Modern Internasional Tbk (MDRN) bekerja sama dengan CIMB Private Equity Sdn Bhd untuk melakukan investasi saham ekuitas sebesar 10 persen atau senilai US$25 juta.

Menurut Direktur Utama MSI, Henri Honoris, CIMB Group merupakan mitra jangka panjang bagi Modern Internasional [MDRN], terutama dalam pengembangan bisnis 7-Eleven. “Kemitraan ini telah meningkat ke tingkat yang lebih tinggi dengan CIMB menjadi salah satu pemegang saham minoritas,” ujarnya di Jakarta, Senin (20/10).

Kemitraan tersebut, kata Henri, sekaligus menunjukkan keyakinan CIMB terhadap prospek bisnis 7-Eleven di Indonesia dan kemampuan perusahaan untuk memperluas serta mengembangkan bisnis. MSI merupakan pemegang master franchise 7-Eleven untuk Indonesia.

Dia mengatakan, pelaksanaan kerjasama ini setelah MDRN memperoleh persetujuan pemegang saham pada Rapat Umum Pemegang Saham Luar Biasa (RUPSLB) pada Juli 2014 untuk melakukan aksi korporasi Penambahan Modal Tanpa Hak Memesan Efek Terlebih Dahulu (PTHMETD) hingga 10 persen saham baru.

Menurut Henri, saat ini MSI memiliki 175 outlet 7-Eleven yang telah dibuka di Jakarta dan keikutsertaan CIMBPE ini adalah untuk bersama-sama mengembangkan jaringan outlet 7-Eleven di Indonesia. “Kemitraan strategis ini akan lebih memperkuat hubungan bisnis antara 7-Eleven dan CIMB Group,” ucapnya.

Sementara itu, menurut Group Chief Financial Officer and Chief Executive Officer of Group Strategy and Strategic Investments CIMB Group, Kenny Kim, pihaknya mendukung kemitraan jangka panjang tersebut. “Kami sangat senang dengan kesempatan ini untuk mendukung mitra bisnis jangka panjang kami, yaitu PT Modern Internasional Tbk,” katanya.

Kenny menyebutkan, CIMB Niaga di Indonesia telah menjadi mitra sinergis jangka panjang dengan MDRN. “Investasi ini memperkuat hubungan bisnis kami dan mempererat dukungan untuk bisnis perseroan yang merupakan bukti lain dari komitmen dalam menyediakan aset aktif melalui private equity,” papar Kenny.

Dia menambahkan, PT Bank CIMB Niaga Tbk telah memperluas produk dan layanannya termasuk mesin ATM, EDC dan pembayaran mobile digital untuk bisnis 7-Eleven. Saat ini, ada 150 mesin ATM CIMB dan 175 CIMB EDC yang dipasang di outlet-outlet 7-Eleven yang seluruhnya masih berlokasi di Jakarta.

“Ada potensi untuk 7-Eleven dan CIMB Niaga untuk lebih mengeksplorasi peluang untuk mengembangkan usaha masing-masing melalui kemitraan strategis ini termasuk menyediakan pembiayaan waralaba. Kemitraan ini juga memberikan kontribusi secara tidak langsung terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi negara,” ujarnya.

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October 21, 2014

Waspadai “Profit Taking” Usai Pelantikan Jokowi, Perhatikan Empat Saham Ini

Pada perdagangan hari ini, para pelaku pasar diharapkan mewaspadai aksi profit taking pasca pelantikan Joko Widodo sebagai presiden ketujuh yang dinilai menjadi salah satu pemicu utama kenaikan IHSG ke level 5040.

Hal tersebut dikatakan analis PT HD Capital Tbk, Yuganur Wijanarko, di Jakarta, Selasa (21/10). Dia mengatakan, secara teknikal keberhasilan IHSG untuk kembali di atas level psikologis 5.000 tampak cukup tangguh.

“Namun, kami sarankan untuk menunggu koreksi minor akibat profit taking pasca pelantikan Jokowi sebelum mengambil posisi buy,” papar Yuganur lagi.

Dia menyebutkan, adanya potensi aksi ambil untung pada perdagangan hari ini mesti disikapi para investor untuk mempertimbangkan empat saham pilihan, yakni:

1. PT Tiga Pilar Sejahtera Food Tbk [AISA], target trading Rp2.375.

Koreksi downtrend medium term baru padai emiten consumer mie instan ini mulai ada perubahan berarti dalam bentuk pembentukan minor upward retracement ke target medium-downtrendline di posisi Rp2.375 sebelum momentum terhenti di daerah jenuh beli.

2. PT Lippo Karawaci Tbk [LPKR], target trading Rp1.085.

Walaupun dapat mengalami koreksi minor, HD Capital melihat secara medium term dalam grafik mingguan ada potensi untuk terjadinya proses kenaikan minor pada medium term downtrend dan konsolidasi di emiten properti milik Lippo Group ini ke down-trendline resistance di level Rp1.195.

3. PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia Tbk [BBRI], target trading Rp11.100.

Direkomendasikan positioning buying secara moderat jika terjadi koreksi minor dalam kenaikan emiten perbankan big cap BUMN mikro ritel ini yang terlalu tajam dan rentan profit taking untuk kontinuasi swing naik selanjutnya.

4. PT Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk [BBNI], target trading Rp5.925.

Koreksi pasca kenaikan cukup tajam pada emiten perbankan big cap “pelat merah” ini untuk meredakan keadaan jenuh beli harian dapat digunakan sebagai entry point untuk swing kontinuasi kenaikan berikutnya hingga level Rp5.925.

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October 21, 2014

Takeaways from Meeting with Delta Dunia Makmur

On our meeting with Delta Dunia Makmur (DOID)’s Director, the company – as the second biggest mining contractor in Indonesia – believes the depressed coal price level has already bottomed leaving only upside on the cards. Cost efficiency are the key survival factors for Delta Dunia amid the gloomy coal price. The company improved efficiencies via operational cuts such as employee down-sizing, higher productivity, debt restructuring with extended maturities. The stock is currently trading at 2.3x 2014 PBV.
¨ Major improvements since new management came in back in 2012. Post new management coming in 1H12, Delta Dunia was able to 1.) collect its uncollectible receivables from its customers , 2.) Book positive free cash flow, 3.) cut their employee by 28.3% from 12,000 to 8,600 employees and 4.) cut down capex spending as a reaction to the coal downturn.
¨ Earnings turnaround. Given the aforementioned attempts, DOID was able to book 1H14 earnings of USD11m from a USD6m loss back in 1H13. The management expects 2014-15 capex to reach USD46m and USD56m mostly for heavy equipment replacements.
¨ Debt restructuring. Results from negotiations with several banks, Delta Dunia was able to extend its maturity period from 2015 to 2019. This should reduce pressure on cash outflow for debt repayments for the next 4 years.
¨ Valuation. The management did not give guidance for 2014 net profit. However, based on 2014-15 earnings consensus, the stock is currently trading at 9.5x – 6.3x respectively.

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October 21, 2014

KKGI Finalisasi Akuisisi 95% Saham Bias Petrasia Persada

Manajemen Resource Alam Indonesia (KKGI) menyatakan pada 20 Oktober 2014 telah melakukan penandatangan kesepakatan bersama untuk mengakuisisi saham PT Khatulistiwa Hidro Energi (KHE) milik PT Bumi Raya Utama (BRU) dan perorangan, Hendro Martowardojo.

KHE adalah pemegang 95% saham PT Bias Petrasia Persada (BPP) yang merupakan salah satu perusahaan bergerak di bidang pembangkit listrik tenaga air/hidro energi.

Dirut [KKGI 1,185 0 (+0,0%)] Pintarso Adijanto menyebutkan obyek transaksi adalah penyertaan kepemilikan saham pada KHE. Namun besaran persentase akuisisi dan nilai transaksi tersebut akan dilaporkan setelah selesainya proses penghitungan nilai wajar/fair value serta penilaian kewajaran/fairness opinion dari penilai independen.

Menurut Adijanto pihak-pihak yang melakukan transaksi adalah KKGI sebagai pembeli dan BRU dan Hendro Martowardojo sebagai penjual

“Transaksi tersebut nantinya akan merupakan transaksi afiliasi dari anggota direksi dan afiliasi dari anggota dewan komisaris,” ujar Adijanto dalam pernyataan kepada BEI, Senin (20/10).

Pertimbangan dan alasan perseroan mengakuisisi KHE adalah PT BPP yang merupakan anak usaha KHE dalam proses mengembangkan bisnis energi terbarukan yang telah dituangkan dalam perjanjian pembelian tenaga listrik oleh pihak PT PLN. Perjanjian dengan PLN disepakati pada 9 Juli 2012. Kapasitas pembangkit BPP 6.400 Kwh di lokasi Cicatih, Jawa Barat tentu prospektif di masa yang akan datang.

Alasan lain, pengembangan potensi sumber daya air sebagai energi alternatif dan terbarukan sangat perlu untuk terus digalakkan sesuai keinginan pemerintah untuk mengurangi pemakaian sumber daya alam yang tidak terbarukan. Pertimbangan lain adalah dukungan pemerintah yang tertuang dalam Permen ESDM No 12 Tahun 2014 tentang kenaikan harga beli listrik tenaga air dari semula Rp656/Kwh menjadi maksimum Rp1.075/Kwh (tergantung wilayah kerja).

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October 21, 2014

Data makroekonomi China lebih baik dari konsensus

Data makroekonomi China lebih baik dari konsensus.  Pertumbuhan ekonomi PDB 3Q 2014 7,3% yoy vs cons 7,2% yoy. Industrial Production Sept +8% yoy vs +7,5% yoy. Retail Sales Sept 11,6% yoy vs 11,7% yoy.

October 21, 2014

Antisipasi Laporan Keuangan BBRI & BMRI !!..

Hari Kamis 23 Okt BBRI akan mempublikasikan LK di koran, kami prediksi laba bersih 9m14 sebesar Rp17,5 triliun, atau tumbuh 14%.

Sementara BMRI hari Jumat 24 Okt, dengan prediksi laba bersih Rp14,8 triliun, tumbuh 16%.

Kami merekomendasikan BMRI melihat PBV 14 di level 2,3x, sementara BBRI 2,7x. Didukung ekspektasi pertumbuhan laba bersih yang juga lebih tinggi dari BBRI. Rekomendasi BUY untuk BMRI, TP 12000 dengan target PBV-15 sebesar 2,4x.

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October 21, 2014

Stocks Beginning the Week Mixed

The U.S. equity markets are mixed in early action, following Friday’s solid rebound to cap off a volatile week, with earnings season ramping up, while the domestic economic docket is quiet today. Dow member IBM is finding solid pressure after the company posted much softer-than-expected 3Q results. Meanwhile, overseas, European stocks are broadly lower in the wake of a lowered full-year profit forecast from Germany’s SAP, while Royal Philips missed analysts’ quarterly expectations. Gold is trading higher, along with Treasuries, while the U.S. dollar is flat and crude oil prices are mixed. In other earnings news, Hasbro slightly beat the Street’s profit projections. In other international action, Asian stocks finished higher on the heels of the sharp gains in the U.S. on Friday, led by a rally for the Japanese markets.

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October 20, 2014

Jokowi Visits Prabowo on his Birthday

President-elect Joko “Jokowi” Widodo paid a visit to Prabowo Subianto, the Gerindra Party’s Executive Board Chairman, who celebrated his 63rd birthday on Friday, 17 Oct, 2014. They held a private meeting in Prabowo’s residence located at Jalan Kertanegara IV, Kebayoran Baru, South Jakarta. This was the first meeting since the presidential election on July 9, 2014, which was won by Jokowi and his running mate, M. Jusuf Kalla. (Tempo)

Comment: The meeting between Jokowi and Prabowo was much needed in order to calm down Indonesia’s high political tension. The market turned positive and closed at a positive 1.56% on Friday. In the short-term, we believe that the move is a great solution for the freezing political situation in which the PDIP (Jokowi’s party) coaliation lost in the parliament’s (DPR) and people’s assembly (MPR) leadership election.

Today is also the inauguration day of Jokowi and Jusuf Kalla as the 7th president and vice president of Indonesia. It will then be followed with the announcement of the cabinet (maybe tomorrow) of which Jokowi said will consist of 4 coordinating mininisters and 30 ministers. While we have a neutral stance regarding the cabinet’s roster, looking at the names stated in social media which speculates that some credible names such as Sri Mulyani will be back in the cabinet will give Indonesia a new hope.

October 20, 2014

JSMR incar properti sumbang pendapatan 15%

PT Jasa Marga (Persero) Tbk (JSMR) bakal segera memperkuat portofolio bisnisnya melalui bisnis properti. Emiten pelat merah ini akan menggarap sejumlah proyek properti tahun depan.

“Ada proyek residensial dan kawasan mix used di beberapa wilayah,” tandas Sekertaris Perusahaan JSMR David Wijayatno.

Sayang, dia masih enggan merinci lebih lanjut soal proyeknya tersebut. Yang jelas, manajemen telah memiliki target bisnis propertinya ini untuk tahap awal dapat berkontribusi untuk pendapatan konsolidasi sebesar 10%-15%.

Guna memperoleh hasil investasi yang tepat sasaran, perseroan akan menggandeng pihak lain, tentunya yang telah memiliki pengalaman di dunia bisnis properti. Hingga saat ini, JSMR tengah menuntaskan proses akuisisi lahan guna memuluskan rencananya tersebut.

 

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October 20, 2014

Poultry: Time to BUY, Top Pick: JPFA

Bahan baku pakan ternak didominasi oleh jagung sebesar 50% dan bungkil
kedelai sebesar 25%. Seiring turunnya harga jagung dan kedelai ketitik terendah pada Oktober
2014, kami memproyeksi marjin laba kotor akan mulai membaik di 2015 didukungekspektasinilaitukar rupiah yang lebih baik di 2015lewat membaiknya data ekonomi Indonesia. Disisi lain, pembukaan larangan impor Jepang terhadap produk ayam Indonesia juga menjadi potensi penjualan baru
kedepannya. Kami BULLISH terhadap industri pakan ternak, merekomendasikan BELI
untuk CPIN (TP 5000, P/E15 27x), MAIN (TP 3900, P/E15 25x), JPFA (TP 1900, P/E15 21x), dengan JPFA sebagai pilihan utama melihat valuasi yang paling menarik. ©Panin Sekuritas

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October 20, 2014

Panin Sekuritas Research 20 Oktober 2014

Wall Street pada akhir pekan lalu ditutup menguat pada perdagangan terakhir pekan lalu didorong oleh data kinerja korporasi yang diatas ekspektasi, serta data consumer confidence yang mencapai titik tertinggi dalam 7 tahun terakhir. Investor juga berspekulasi bahwa bank sentral akan menambah stimulus, Beberapa emiten besar yang mendorong Dow Jones naik antara lain Schlumberger dan Morgan Stanlet. S&P tercatat naik +1,3%, sementara Dow Jones naik +1,6%. Sebelumnya, Presiden St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, James Bullar menyatakan, The Fed harus mempertimbangkan penundaaan penghentian program pembelian asset karena ekonomi global yang melemah. Bursa regional Eropa pada perdagangan Jumat kemarin juga menguat didorong oleh rencana ECB meluncurkan program pembelian asset untuk mendukung perekonomian. IHSG sendiri dalam 4 hari perdagangan terakhir terpantau menguat. Sentimen positif pada perdagangan Jumat, berasal dari pertemuan Jokowi dan Prabowo, yang sukses meredam panasnya kondisi politik dalam negeri sebulan terakhir. Hari ini kami perkirakan indeks masih akan bergerak menguat seiring dengan euforia pelantikan Presiden baru.  Pasar juga menanti tim kabitnet ekonomi Jokowi.  Kisaran support-resistance 5.020-5.100. Saham Pilihan : ASRI, LPKR, ANTM, ADHI, TLKM, PTPP, SMGR, BMRI, BBNI. ©Panin Sekuritas

October 20, 2014

Equity Markets Manage Mighty Up-Move

The U.S. equity markets finished the recent volatile week on a high-note, posting solid gains for Friday’s session as some upbeat domestic earnings and economic data, as well as renewed hopes of further stimulus from central banks, aided the advance for stocks. Treasuries were lower following U.S. reports that showed housing starts rose slightly more than expected, while consumer sentiment unexpectedly improved to a more than seven-year high. In earnings news, Dow member General Electric topped the Street’s earnings expectations and Morgan Stanley easily bested analysts’ forecasts, while Google missed profit projections and posted disappointing advertising metrics. Meanwhile, gold was lower, while the U.S. dollar and crude oil prices gained ground.

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October 19, 2014

Strategy Update October 2014

The past weeks saw an escalation of volatility with the ‘fear index’ represented by VIX doubling from 13 to 26. Global stock market index fell 8.5%, the US S&P fell 7.5%, Europe 11.4%, Japan 4.6% and Asia 5.6% in USD terms respectively, from the recent US peak. US Treasuries and German bunds benefited from safe haven buying resulting in 10 year yields falling to 2% and 0.8% respectively, near historical lows.

Are we at the start of a bear market for equities? We believe not.

We said in the last MIG publication that initial market jitters can be expected on the back of removal of QE3 and more hawkish Fed rhetoric. The current ‘panic’ was triggered by forced liquidation of leveraged hedge fund positions, starting with oil and commodities and now spilling over to equities. We believe this is not a start of a bear market for a number of reasons. The top down fundamental view has not changed significantly and US growth remains solid while in Japan and Europe, central banks will most likely react by quickening their easing policy measures ie EUR 1trn expansion in ECB’s balance sheet and BOJ’s USD 650bn asset purchases per year. Even though the US Fed is not going to reverse the discontinuation of QE3 policy, global liquidity as reflected in G4 central bank balance sheets continue to expand. This is therefore conducive for financial markets. In the past periods when QE1 and QE2 were removed, the S&P index fell between 9% to 12%. Given that the fall so far has been in the order of 7%, we hold the view that this current selloff would soon find a market bottom.

In terms of past portfolio strategy, we have been recommending investors to stay overweight equities, at the same time, to take advantage of low volatility to implement protection strategies. This strategy has worked out well. Today however, it is not advisable to do so as volatility and the cost of buying protection have spiked. For investors who are sitting on cash, we advocate taking advantage of the current downdraft by putting funds to work, even though investors will need to become accustomed to a more volatile environment as we at the inflexion point of the interest rate cycle. We continue to like Developed equities over Asian equities.

On fixed income, even though credit spreads have widened, prices of corporate bonds including EM bonds have not been as negatively impacted as US Treasuries have rallied sharply with the 10 yr. yield tumbling some 50bp from a month ago. We advocate investors stay invested in bonds but through a highly diversified portfolio of credits. This will enable strong and resilient income generation that would outperform cash returns over time.

For sure, this strategy is based on the assumption there is no escalation of geopolitical tensions in Ukraine-Russia, the Middle East as well as the Ebola crisis. Please refer to the past MIG issues for arguments to support the above strategy

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October 17, 2014

Stocks Pointing to an Early Rebound

The U.S. equity markets are moving nicely higher in early action as a report showing domestic housing starts topped expectations and a sharp rebound in Greece are helping provide some relief to global sentiment, which has been rattled as of late by a plethora of global uncertainty. Moreover, the U.S. earnings calendar is in focus, with Dow member General Electric slightly beating the Street’s earnings expectations and Morgan Stanley besting analysts’ quarterly projections, while Google missed with its bottomline results. Treasuries are moving lower on the rebound for equities, ahead of a read on domestic consumer sentiment. Gold and the U.S. dollar are modestly lower, while crude oil prices are gaining ground. Overseas, Asian stocks finished mixed following the volatile day in the U.S. yesterday, while European equities are recovering somewhat from their recent drop.

October 17, 2014

BWPT is reported in consideration to revise rights issue ratio

BWPT is reported in consideration to revise rights issue ratio. According to media, both retail and institutional investors that objected to the rights issue plan. In addition, BWPT is considering changing the rights issue ratio from previously 1:6 to 1:3. The decision will be decided during the EGM. When contacted, both BWPT and Rajawali said that there were no such discussion.

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October 17, 2014

UNTR to acquire ACST

United Tractors (UNTR)to acquire ACST; targeted to complete transaction by end of 2014. Terms and conditions are yet to be agreed upon. The purchase is for 50.1% of ACST which will require a mandatory tender offer after that. UT’s rationale is the company wants to grow its contractor business beyond mining; into infrastructure and property. ACST has been focusing mainly on projects in the private property sector – with a niche on building foundation.

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October 17, 2014

Economists push incoming Gov’t to build more infrastructure in ex-Java

Economists push incoming Gov’t to build more infrastructure in ex-Java. Infrastructure development is still concentrated in Java with 55% of the spend. The island has 60% of Indonesia’s 240m people, but it only 6% of the country’s total area. Increasing investment in vital infrastructure such as roads and ports is expected to attract investment.

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October 17, 2014

UNTR : United Tractors Tbk bakal diuntungkan dari akuisisi minimal 50,1% saham PT Acset Indonusa Tbk (ACST)

• UNTR : United Tractors Tbk bakal diuntungkan dari akuisisi minimal 50,1% saham PT Acset Indonusa Tbk (ACST). Diversifikasi bisnis konstruksi ini akan menjadi peluang baru bagi perseroan untuk mendongkrak kinerja keuangan ke depan.

Anak usaha PT Astra International Tbk (ASII) tersebut sedang bernegosiasi dengan pemegang saham pengendali Acset untuk mengakuisisi Acset.
Perseroan akan mengambil alih minimal 50,1% saham Acset milik PT Loka Cipta Kreasi dan PT Cross Plus Indonesia. Adapun harga akuisisi masih didiskusikan. Jika terlaksana, United Tractors bakal menjadi pengendali baru Acset.

Analis Danareksa Sekuritas Stefanus Darmagiri mengungkapkan, diversifikasi United Tractors ke sektor konstruksi merupakan keputusan tepat, saat kondisi sektor batubara kurang menguntungkan.  United Tractors akan diuntungkan lewat diversifikasi bisnis ke sektor konstruksi, menyusul belum membaiknya sektor batubara hingga kini.

Diversifikasi bisnis konstruksi, membuka peluang bagi perseroan untuk ikut menikmati lonjakan proyek infrastruktur di dalam negeri.

Akuisisi ini juga bakal mendukung bisnis induk usaha perseroan, Astra International, dalam mengembangkan bisnis infrastruktur dan sektor properti.

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October 17, 2014

Retailers welcomed gov’t decision to scrap high local-supply requirement

Retailers welcomed gov’t decision to scrap high local-supply requirement. The Trade Ministry has scrapped the requirement imposed on foreign retailers to source for at least 80% of their products sold in their Indonesian outlets. Under the revised ruling, modern stores that belong to global retail networks, selling premium products manufactured overseas or serving the needs of foreign communities living in Indonesia will not now be subjects to the prerequisite to supply 80% of their overall goods domestically. This will include stand-alone brands, outlets or specialty stores. The tight supply rule, however, still applies to modern stores that do not fall into three categories. The new trade ministerial regulation is set to come into effect on Sept 17, 2016.

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October 17, 2014

SSIA DALAM SEMBILAN BULAN RAIH KONTRAK BARU Rp2,35 TRILIUN

Emiten yang bergerak dalam bidang usaha properti, konstruksi dan perhotelan, yakni PT Surya Semesta Internusa Tbk (SSIA) dalam sembilan bulan pertama tahun ini berhasil mencatatkan kinerja yang positif.

Hal ini dibuktikan dengan diraihnya kontrak baru sebesar Rp2,35 triliun, serta membukukan penjualan lahan seluas 22,8 hektar, seperti dikutip dari siaran pers, Kamis.

 

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October 17, 2014

IDR :Jokowi-Prabowo Bertemu, Rupiah Sentuh Level Terkuat Sejak 1 Oktober

Setelah beberapa hari terjebak di level Rp 12.200 per dolar Amerika Serikat (AS), hari ini nilai tukar rupiah mampu menguat. Akhirnya rupiah mampu menyentuh level Rp 12.100 per dolar AS.

Mengutip Reuters, dolar saat ini diperdagangkan di posisi Rp 12.145. Ini merupakan posisi dolar AS terlemah hari ini.

Sedangkan bagi rupiah, posisi hari ini adalah yang terkuat sejak 1 Oktober 2014. Saat itu, rupiah diperdagangkan Rp 12.128 per dolar AS.

Dari dalam negeri, hari ini ada sentimen positif dari bidang politik yaitu pertemuan antara presiden terpilih Joko Widodo (Jokowi) dengan pimpinan Koalisi Merah Putih, Prabowo Subianto. Ini merupakan pertemuan pertama mereka setelah Pemilihan Presiden (Pilpres) 2014.(Detikfinance)

1st SESSION JCI on 17.10.2014 (By: D’ORIGIN – Veni Fitriani)

IHSG @4998.14 (+46.52pts) (+0.94%)
(H: 4998.44 ; L: 4953.50)
Value: 3.223 T (NG 371 B )
Volume: 24.519 M Lot (NG 5.020 M Lot)
Foreign Nett Sell 394.71 B **
Incl.Crossing:
DILD @565 ~ 173.61 B (D vs F) **
Foreign Value 39.6%

*BUY (Regular)
F Buy 946.8 B
D Buy 1904.8 B
*SELL (Regular)
F Sell 1201.6 B
D Sell 1649.9 B

USD/IDR:…..!!!
JISDOR: 12,207/12,222
NDF:       12,259/12,212

JCI for today:
Support: 4935 4900
Resist:    5000, 5040

6 MARKET DRIVEN BY SECTOR
FINANCE (+1.38%) (861.74 B )
PROPERTY (+2.05%) (780.03 B )
TRADE. (+0.32%) (542.67 B )
MANUFACT (+1.34%) (409.07 B )
MINING.  (-0.07%) (286.44 B )
INFRA.   (+0.08%) (277.32 B )

7 NETT BUY STOCKs BY FOREIGNERS
GGRM @60505 (25.19 B )
KLBF.   @1678 (12.74 B )
INTP.   @22746 (12.06 B )
PWON @410.  (11.85 B )
BSDE.  @1537 (11.52 B )
LPKR.  @996. (9.48 B )
SSIA.   @705. (8.99 B )

7 NETT SELL STOCKs BY FOREIGNERS
BMRI. @9712.  (51.12 B )
ASII.    @6389. (35.45 B )
TLKM @2813.  (33.89 B )
ITMG.  @20227 (31.71 B )
PGAS @5795. (26.37 B )
ANTM@954.    (24.35 B )
BCBA. @12599 (23.87 B )

8 MOST ACTIVE STOCKs BY VALUE
BBRI.   @10575 (+3.42%)
BMRI.  @9825.  (+1.81%)
MPPA @2995.  (+3.10%)
LPKR. @1015.   (+4.10%)
TLKM @2815.   (+0.36%)
ITMG.  @19825 (-1.49%)
UNTR. @17450 (+1.60%)
BBNI.    @5675.  (+1.34%)

8 MOST ACTIVE STOCKs BY VOLUME
LPKR. @1015 (1.539.538 lot)
BUMI.  @124.  (944.106 lot)
BKSL.  @87.   (846.372 lot)
TARA @416.  (805.473 lot)
PWON @419. (744.271 lot)
SUGI.   @417.  (706.419 lot)
MPPA.  @2995 (615.698 lot)
ADRO. @970. (549.459 lot)

“..selamat menunaikan ibadah sholat Jum’at….”

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October 17, 2014

KAEF : Kimia Farma Ajak Korea Garap Pabrik Pasta Tin

PT Kimia Farma Tbk (KAEF) akan bekerja sama dengan perusahaan Korea membangun pabrik pasta tin pada tahun depan.

“Yang Jepang sudah mundur. Kalau Korea lebih maju progresnya,” ujar Direktur Pengembangan M. Wahyuli Syafarisaat di kantor Kimia Farma, Jakarta, Kamis (16/10).

Menurut dia, perseroan dan investor Korea tengah membuat studi kajian (feasibility study) yang diperkirakan rangkum bulan ini. Setelah itu, kedua pihak akan membentuk perusahaan patungan (joint venture) dengan kepemilikan saham perseroan mayoritas.

“Nilai bangun pabrik sekitar US$10-11 juta,” ujarnya.

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October 17, 2014

FITCH: Penjualan Menara Untungkan TBIG dan EXCL, TLKM Netral

Fitch Ratings menilai dua transaksi yang diumumkan bulan ini oleh operator telekomunikasi Indonesia untuk menjual aset menara kepada operator menara akan memiliki dampak kredit yang berbeda terhadap pihak-pihak yang berpartisapasi dalam transaksi tersebut.

Menurut lembaga pemeringkat utang global itu, Kamis (16/10), rencana PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk [TLKM 2,805 -50 (-1,8%)] untuk menjual 49% dari anak perusahaannya Mitratel kepada PT Tower Bersama Infrastructure Tbk [TBIG 8,275 -175 (-2,1%)] berdampak netral secara kredit untuk TLKM dan positif untuk TBIG.

Lalu, rencana PT XL Axiata Tbk [EXCL 5,775 225 (+4,1%)], operator terbesar ke-3 di Indonesia, untuk menjual 3.500 menara kepada PT Solusi Tunas Pratama Tbk [SUPR 0 -9500 (-100,0%)] akan berdampak positif secara kredit terhadap EXCL.

Dijelaskan, transaksi ekuitas di antara TLKM dan TBIG akan menambah sekitar USD125 juta terhadap pendapatan tahunan dan USD70 juta terhadap EBITDA dari TBIG. FFO-adjusted net leverage akan membaik menjadi sekitar 4,0×-4,5x dari 5,0x karena EBITDA kuartal terakhir yang disetahunkan akan naik menjadi USD295 juta dari USD225 juta, dan TBIG juga akan mengkonsolidasi tambahan utang netto sebesar USD225 juta terhadap utang netto saat ini sebesar USD1.2 miliar pada saat transaksi diselesaikan.

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October 17, 2014

President Bambang Yudhoyono inaugurates 22 new envoys before leaving office

President Bambang Yudhoyono inaugurates 22 new envoys before leaving office. The 22 new ambassadors, the majority of whom are career diplomats, include a politician from SBY’s party, Toto Riyanto who will be the ambassador to Brazil.

October 17, 2014

Consumer credit forecast to grow by 10% YoY in 2014

Consumer credit forecast to grow by 10% YoY in 2014. BBNI had 5-6% loan growth in consumer segments in 1H14, and is expecting to finish 2014 slightly above 10%. BBCA expects its consumer credit to grow 8-10% YoY. In total to 3Q14, BBCA projects consumer loans to have grown 15% YoY, however ytd the growth is much lower.

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October 17, 2014

Lexus Indonesia to increase ASP by 10% starting in Nov on weakening Rupiah

Lexus Indonesia to increase ASP by 10% starting in Nov on weakening Rupiah. Lexus Indo said the company plans to increase prices by 20-30% on stages to sustain the margin, as currently the company used Rp10k-Rp11k IDR/USD, lower than current Rp12k/USD. As a premium brand of Astra, Lexus expected the luxurious cars sales this year will drop 3% YoY, citing sluggish economic growth and increased tax on luxurious cars as the culprit. As of Sept, Lexus sold 551 units, on target to meet its FY14 target of 650 units.

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October 17, 2014

Ministry inks deal with Freeport to increase local components usage

Ministry inks deal with Freeport to increase local components usage. The Ministry of Industry has signed a MOU with Freeport Indonesia to increase the use of locally produced goods and services as substitutes for the latter’s yearly overseas procurements. Freeport’s operational yearly procurements could reach up to Rp15tn.

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October 17, 2014

WSKT to spin off its property arm

Due to many planned cooperation projects in 2015, Waskita Karya (WSKT) to accelerate realty division spin off to 4Q14 from 2015.

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October 17, 2014

Standard Chartered akan kuasai 4% saham BORN

Standard Chartered Bank (Stanchart) ternyata tidak memberikan izin restrukturisasi utang senilai US$ 1 miliar kepada PT Borneo Lumbung Energi & Metal Tbk (BORN) secara cuma-cuma.

Alexander Ramlie, Presiden Direktur BORN menuturkan, pihaknya juga mesti memberikan 4% saham perusahaan batubara yang dikendalikan Samin Tan itu kepada Stanchart.

Caranya, BORN nantinya akan menggelar rights issue sebesar 4% dari modal disetor dan ditempatkan, untuk kemudian diserap oleh Stanchart. “Ini sebagai insentif atas proposal restrukturisasi utang yang kami ajukan. Kalau tidak kita berikan (insentif) ini, restrukturisasi tidak akan diberikan Stanchart,” jelas Alexander dalam paparan publik di Jakarta.

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October 17, 2014

MAPI gets new investor for Burger King

Mitra Adiperkasa gets new investor for Burger King. MAPI announced that it had signed an investment agreement with a Singapore company QSR Indoburger to sell parts of its stake in Sari Burger Indonesia, which operates Burger King in Indonesia. The investor will partly buy new shares from Sari Burger and partly buy old shares of Sari Burger from MAPI. MAPI hope to complete the transaction before the end of 2014 but did not disclose the percentage of Burger King’s stake that will be sold to Sari Burger. The completion of the transaction will take place after the Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM) officially approves QSR as a new investor.

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October 17, 2014
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