BABA: Downgrading to SELL after strong IPO performance – On the back of the strong IPO performance

Downgrading to SELL after strong IPO performance – On the back of the strong IPO performance, we are downgrading Alibaba to a SELL. While we still continue to like the scale and long term potential of Alibaba, the stock is trading at forward PE multiple of 41.1x CY15E earnings and we find these valuations on the expensive end and recommend that clients wait for a better entry price before going in. We maintain our price target of US$77.20 based on a forward PE multiple of 33.8x CY15E earnings.

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September 23, 2014

BEI mencermati pergerakan saham SIAP dan APII

PT Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) mencermati pergerakan saham PT Sekawan Intipratama Tbk (SIAP) dan saham PT Arita Prima Indonesia Tbk (APII). BEI menilai saham SIAP terjadi penurunan harga dan peningkatan aktivitas dibandingkan periode sebelumnya, sedangkan APII mengalami peningkatan harga signifikan.

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September 23, 2014

BJBR berniat menerbitkan obligasi dan right issue mulai paruh kedua tahun depan

PT Bank Pembangunan Daerah Jawa Barat dan Banten Tbk (BJBR) berniat menerbitkan obligasi dan right issue mulai paruh kedua tahun depan. Perseroan memprediksi kondisi pasar akan mulai stabil pada akhir 2015. Hingga akhir tahun ini, kondisi pasar diprediksi emiten masih dalam tahap transisi.

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September 23, 2014

PTPP tengah menjajaki pinjaman senilai Rp420 miliar

Untuk mengembangkan bisnisnya, PT Pembangunan Perumahan Tbk (PTPP) tengah menjajaki pinjaman senilai Rp420 miliar. Pinjaman bertenor 3 tahun itu berasal dari bank pelat merah untuk menggarap tol Kualanamu-Tebing Tinggi.

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September 23, 2014

China May Boost Gold Reserves Amid Imbalances in Holdings

China may join other emerging countries in boosting gold reserves as the precious metal makes up a smaller share of its foreign-exchange holdings compared with developed economies, said a London-based researcher.

The country hasn’t announced any changes to state gold reserves since authorities in 2009 said holdings totaled 1,054.1 metric tons. While China holds the world’s biggest foreign-exchange reserves, bullion accounts for 1.1 percent of the total, compared with about 70 percent for the U.S. and Germany, the biggest gold holders, World Gold Council data show.

“It is clear that western central banks over time will be reducing their reserves and China and other Asian countries will be increasing,” David Marsh, managing director at the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum, said in a Sept. 11 interview in Beijing. “Gold will become more traded amongst central banks in the next 30 years because there are colossal imbalances in world gold holdings as a percentage of overall asset reserves.”

Central banks, net buyers of gold for 14 straight quarters, helped limit bullion’s losses last year that were the most since 1981 and may increase purchases to as much as 500 tons this year after adding 409 tons last year, the London-based council said Aug. 14. The precious metal rose 3 percent this year as geopolitical tensions boosted demand for a haven.

Bullion for immediate delivery climbed 0.3 percent to $1,237.04 by 10:44 a.m. in Beijing, according to Bloomberg generic pricing. The metal fell 28 percent last year, the biggest annual decline in more than three decades, and is down 36 percent from a record $1,921.17 reached on Sept. 6, 2011.

China’s Hoard

Russia is among nations that added gold to reserves this year, boosting holdings to the highest in at least two decades and surpassing China’s hoard to become the fifth-largest by country, data from the council show.

“I don’t know if China has been boosting their official gold reserves,” said Marsh, who co-founded the group that tracks economic and monetary policies. “But I’d rather think over the past six or seven years the Chinese authorities probably have been adding to their holdings in different ways.”

Foreign-exchange reserves of China, the second-biggest economy, have nearly doubled to $3.99 trillion since April 2009 when the nation last announced changes to bullion holdings, according to State Administration of Foreign Exchange data. Last year the country, also the biggest bullion producer, overtook India as the top gold user after price declines spurred buying.

The U.S. holds 8,133.5 tons of gold in reserves, while Germany keeps 3,384.2 tons and Italy has 2,451.8 tons, World Gold Council data show. Russia keeps 1,105.3 tons, or 9.8 percent of its total holdings, according to the data.

September 23, 2014

Health Care: Relying on life support

We attended the Southeast Asia Hospital Development & Technology Summit, where the discussion was mainly focused on views from governments and private hospitals on the healthcare outlook facing the implementation of the universal healthcare system. We view that downside risk from BPJS implementation will be more prominent in state-owned providers.

BPJS so far…

The National Social Security System (SJSN) was first implemented in January 2014 under social security agent, BPJS Kesehatan. The program was intended to reform the dynamics of the Indonesian healthcare industry with an aggressive outlook of 100% population coverage by 2019. As of September 2014, BPJS Kesehatan has managed to increase SJSN coverage to 127.7mn members or accounted to 51% of the total Indonesian population, ahead of its full year target of 121.6mn people. The organization reportedly collected a total premium of Rp18.4tr as of June 2014 and disbursed Rp16.4tr in claims. This was within management expectation to keep claims disbursement at maximum 90% of premium, leaving the rest 10% of the fund to manage internal operation.

Nevertheless, the questions lingered on the government’s capability to manage the funding and sustainability outlook amidst the current Indonesian economy condition. Indonesia’s total healthcare expenditure has grown 18.4% for 10 years CAGR and is expected to grow further with the SJSN program. Can the government budget sufficiently address the growing healthcare expenditure? Even after calculations adjustment from the current talk on fuel and subsidy reallocation to the healthcare in addition to the account premium contribution from private and self enrolled members, the shortage of funds were apparent. Indonesian government needs to increase its healthcare spending by 20% per annum to reach funding level similar to other countries with universal coverage. Funding shortfall would inevitably result in increased contributions and reduction of benefits in the private sectors. Conjointly, SJSN was exposed to some challenges including limited supply of medical staffs, low efficiency, lack of benefits coordination as well as service inequality due to wide demographic area and health decentralization.

From the hospital standpoints:

Most speakers highlighted the potential growth from the untapped healthcare market in Indonesia, which is still minimal at a mere 3% of total GDP. With population of 250 mn, the average healthcare spending per capita remains the lowest in the region at USD$108 annually in the 2012 compared with other ASEAN developing countries such as Malaysia ($410), Thailand ($215) and the Philippines ($119). The rising middle class in Indonesia combined with healthcare reform would spur sustainable long-term growth demand and positive catalyst for both Indonesia’s economy and the healthcare sector.

Contrastingly, healthcare providers were struggling to maintain their profitability expectation in the face of SJSN regulation. Under Indonesia Case Base Group (INA CBG) or the diagnostic coding system, the financing system was based on average treatment tariff of packaged case group designated diagnosed diseases. Furthermore the treatment of patients will be based on a tiered referral services system which starts at primary care with general practitioner followed by secondary and tertiary care (specialist and subspecialist doctors). A number of private hospitals and practitioners have cited the incompatibility of INA CBG rates with the operational cost to run the hospitals as the main reason for them to refrain from participating in the SJSN program.

In medical equipment distribution, principals, distributors and hospitals as well as government regulation are closely interdependent with each other. Yet a number of government regulations have resulted in high cost equilibrium which is in contrast with BPJS Kesehatan’s mission to provide low-cost healthcare. Some regulations includes: 1) high taxation considering medical equipments are considered as luxury goods, 2) complicated license application process is costly and not guaranteed, 3) medical equipment leasing is prohibited. Not only that, challenges also include lack of skillful users to operate the machines, limited education and training for sophisticated IT system and service discontinuation from distributors once sale purchase is made.

Nonetheless, SJSN participation will be compulsory to all hospitals in 2019. The government and the healthcare providers must address these obstacles to ensure hospital survival in the coming years. Moreover, the hospital must address the target market to justify the choice of medical equipments and healthcare services. In addition, cost containment strategy and more efficient referral system are needed in order to curb the daily operational cost to the minimum while still maintaining medical service quality.

In conclusion, we view that the downside risk from BPJS-SJSN implementation is more prominent in state-owned providers than in private ones. As compared to private companies which are able to selectively participate in the program, the state-owned companies are obliged to fully participate regardless of their current production capability. Similarly, lack of economic of scales and price ceiling on generic drugs put further pressure on profitability. Further improvements in the system are needed in order to minimize the negative impact.

From pharmaceuticals sectors, we believe that state-owned companies such as Kimia Farma (KAEF) and Indo Farma (INAF) are exposed to higher profitability risk in the near term in comparison to private companies such as Kalbe Farma (KLBF).

Hospital providers that are exposed to the SJSN program are Siloam hospital (SILO), Omni Hospital (SAME) and Mayapada hospital (SRAJ).

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September 23, 2014

Headwinds on ASII

There is more noise on Indonesia’s low cost green car program (LCGC) in local media, saying that Jokowi might remove the tax incentive given to LCGC products. If materialised, this will be negative to LCGC producers and benefit those car makers that refuse to invest and deepen their manufacturing base in Indonesia (LCGC requires 80% local content). Indeed, it will be even more detrimental to FDI in Indonesia in our view. Based on our understanding, regulation/incentives for LCGC was designed to attract investment in Indonesia (vs. in Thailand) as the manufacturing base for low cost car. Therefore, to annul the regulation after investors committed and invested their money in Indonesia will have negative implication on investor’s perception over investing in Indonesia.

This news might create negative sentiment for Astra International although the implication to Astra (ASII)’s earnings will be limited based on our assessment. Even without the tax incentive (10% exemption from luxury tax), LCGC will still be the cheapest passenger car available and will remain affordable for many Indonesian. We are increasingly cautious on Astra International as car sales starts to slow, even before any reversal of regulation on LCGC.

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September 23, 2014

SSIA: The recurring income booster

SSIA just announced the launching of its newest project “Suryacipta Square”, a
commercial area located in the foyer of its Suryacipta industrial city. To maximize the
limited landbank owned by the company at present time, this new commercial
concept is expected to boost the company’s recurring income. We are currently
reviewing our numbers on the company. Our last recommendation was BUY with
Target Price of Rp870.

SSIA launched its new commercial zone inside the Suryacipta industrial city named
“Suryacipta Square” on September 18th 2014. It will become the first business district in
Karawang area, which consists of hotel and apartment, office building, and complex of
retail stores as well as food plaza (first phase). The first phase of development will be
built in the total area of 6.3 ha. Going forward, company has also prepared for the
second phase development, which will include the golf driving range, hospital, and
service apartments.

SSIA’s total landbank in Karawang is quite limited, after very strong land sales in the past
3 years, only 186 ha as of June 2014. Moreover, there’s no significant progress in 1,000
ha land swap process with Perhutani. There is also slowing down in industrial land
demand, with only 16.8 ha land sold in the 1H14, compare to 61.7 ha in 1H13. The
current average land price stood at US122.8 per sqm.

Moreover, with the stronger growth from its construction business, the contribution
from company’s property business continues to decline. Company’s property business
contributed only 15% and 44% to consolidated revenue and EBITDA in 1H14, compare to
28% and 69% respectively in 1H13. The company’s recurring income only accounted
14% from total revenue in 1H14, which generated from its hospitality project.
This new commercial project expected to be the center of business activities in
Karawang area that could support the current tenants in its industrial area. As of now,
Suryacipta industrial city has total tenants of 136 companies, with approximately 27,000
workers have been employed in the area – which will become the potential customers
for Suryacipta Square. We believe this project will support the company’s recurring
income in the future.

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September 23, 2014

SMBR: Growth hurdles

§ Anticipating a capacity glut in 2016: Going forward, Indonesia’s cement capacity should rise to 97mn tons in 2016 from 76mn tons in 2015 (exhibit 9), due to the entry of new cement companies and capacity increases by existing players. Meanwhile, we expect SMBR to complete Baturaja II in 2017 at the earliest. This should give rise to price competition in South Sumatra where SMBR is currently the market leader (exhibit 10) and enjoys a price premium against other products. We thus adjust our model to assume only a 2% YOY ASP hike and 7.5% YOY sales growth in 2016. This report marks a transfer of coverage.

§ Declining below-the-line support due to Baturaja II project: During our recent talk with management, SMBR indicated that discussions with a Chinese contractor are in the final stages; the company expects to sign the Baturaja II project construction contract at the end of this month. Construction is projected to cost around IDR2.9tn (assuming an IDR11,500/1USD exchange rate), higher than our previous estimate of IDR2.7tn. Hence, we expect the remaining IPO cash to be used to fund the construction over the next two years, leaving declining interest income to support SMBR’s below-the-line performance. By 2016, we expect SMBR to take up borrowings (exhibit 8). Separately, management is assessing a plan to expand into cement logistics and precast concrete.

§ Rising operating cost on higher clinker imports: Despite the recent coal price fall (17.5% of 2013 COGS), we expect SMBR’s operating cost to rise as it has reached maximum clinker production levels, increasing the company’s dependency on clinker imports. On the cost side, we expect increased clinker imports to result in net margin compression in 2014-16 for SMBR (exhibit 5).

Outlook: Cutting 2014-16F net earnings by 18-35%
While SMBR slightly regained market share in South Sumatera in June-August (exhibit 6), we think the company is unlikely to see further improvement due to capacity constraints and premium pricing. Given 8M14 sales volumes of 715k tons (-3.7% y-y), we lower our 2014 total sales volume assumption to 1.24mn tons (-2% y-y) from 1.33mn tons (+5% y-y), versus SMBR’s guidance of 1.4mn tons. We also reduce 2015-16 volume assumptions on anticipated intense competition. Combining this with the afore-mentioned growth hurdles, we cut SMBR’s net margins, lowering net-profit forecasts by 18-35% for the period.

Recommendation: Maintain REDUCE with new TP of IDR300
Due to expectation of weaker sales volumes, fierce competition in South Sumatra, IDR depreciation and planned fuel price hike, we lower our TP to IDR300, reflecting an 11.5x 2015F PE, a 30% discount to the sector. Thus, we reiterate our REDUCE rating on 24.2% downside to our new TP. Risks include stronger IDR and higher-than-expected sales volumes and ASPs.

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September 23, 2014

Indeks di Wall Street “berguguran” dalam perdagangan Senin dimana Indeks S&P 500 turun tertajam

Indeks di Wall Street “berguguran” dalam perdagangan Senin dimana Indeks S&P 500 turun tertajam dalam 1 hari perdagangan sejak 5 Agustus’14 dan berada dibawah level Moving Average 14 hari untuk pertama kali sejak 15 September’14 seiring mengecewakannya data Existing Home Sales bulan Agustus yang turun 1.8%, jauh dibawah konsensus ekonom yang memperkirakan terjadi pertumbuhan 1% sehingga memunculkan kekhawatiran baru mengenai pertumbuhan ekonomi AS serta munculnya komentar dari Menteri Keuangan China Lou Jiwei yang mengatakan China tidak akan mengeluarkan Paket Stimulus baru walaupun beberapa indikator ekonomi menunjukkan terjadi perlambatan pertumbuhan ekonomi China dimana kombinasi faktor tersebut mendorong kejatuhan DJIA sebesar -107.06 poin (-0.62%) ditengah normalnya perdagangan Senin tercermin dalam volume perdagangan berjumlah 5.99 miliar saham (nyaris setara dengan rata-rata dari awal bulan hingga 22 September berjumlah 5.97 miliar saham) Kombinasi kejatuhan EIDO -0.78%, DJIA -0.62%, Oil -0.96%, Gold -0.16%, Tin -0.68% serta kejatuhan tertajam dialami Nickel yang terjungkal -4.22% ditengah pelemahan IDR atas USD yang kembali diatas IDR 11,975 menjadi faktor ES perkirakan IHSG akan kembali jatuh dalam perdagangan Selasa.

DJIA -107.06 -0.62% 17172.68
NASDAQ -52.10 -1.14% 4527.69
S&P -16.11 -0.80% 1994.29
GOLD -1.90 -0.16% 1214.70
OIL -0.89 -0.96% 91.52
TIN -145 -0.68%  21,250
NICKEL -750 -4.22% 17,025
CPO -20 -0.95%  2,091
EIDO -0.22 -0.78% $28.01
TLK 47.70 (2,856)
IDR 11,976

Tuesday IDX Range: 5,189 – 5,229

SELL: ANTM, BBCA, BMRI, BBNI

BUY: ITMG, GGRM, PGAS, BBRI, INDF, KLBF, SIMP, ELSA, UNVR, JSM

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September 23, 2014

Flash HSBC PMI Manufaktur China Sept 50,5

Flash HSBC PMI Manufaktur China Sept 50,5; lebih baik dari konsensus 50,0 dan level bulan Agustus 50,2.

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September 23, 2014

Panin Sekuritas Research 23 September 2014

Bursa Amerika ditutup terkoreksi kemarin didorong oleh buruknya data tenaga kerja. Dow -0,62%; S&P 500 -0,80%; Nasdaq -1,14%. Existing home sales bulan Agustus -1,8% mom melebihi konsensus +1%. Koreksi tersebut diperparah dengan pernyataan Menteri Keuangan China Lou Jiwei bahwa tidak akan memberikan stimulus tambahan bagi perekomomian China jika terdapat fluktuasi data makro. Hari ini data PMI China Jasa akan keluar dengan konsensus 50.0.

Badan Anggaran Dewan Perwakilan Rakyat bersama dengan pemerintah menyepakati target total penerimaan Negara dari sektor migas pada RAPBN 2015 menjadi Rp326,96 triliun atau meningkat 5,4% dibandingkan dengan APBN-P 2014. Perubahan tersebut dikarenakan menurunnya cost recovery sebesar US$500 juta dari Nota Keuangan dan RAPBN 2015. Sedangkan untuk subsidi BBM 2015 diturunkan Rp15 triliun menjadi Rp276,01 triliun dengan total kuota subsidi BBM 46 juta kl. Selain itu, juga ditentukan International Crude Price (ICP) USD105 per barel dengan nilai tukar rupiah Rp11.900. BPS memprediksi bila harga BBM bersubsidi naik Rp3.000 per liter maka laju inflasi dapat mencapai 1,5% mom.

Pertumbuhan Utang Luar Negeri (ULN) Indonesia pada akhir Juli 2014 tumbuh +10,0% yoy menjadi USD290,6 miliar. ULN sektor swasta tumbuh 12,9% yoy, dan ULN sektor publik tumbuh 6,8% yoy. IHSG diperkirakan akan tertekan dengan sentimen bursa global dan regional. Rupiah Rp11973.
Trading BOW: INCO, AALI, GGRM, ADRO, PTBA, JPFA, APLN, MAPI.

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September 23, 2014

Pola Overbought & Bearish Harami Masih Membatasi Momentum Kenaikan IHSG

Peluang Rebound IHSG masih terbatas, dimana trend jangka pendek IHSG masih bullish selama > 5.133, meski Stochastic Overbought, Fase Distribusi, penutupan di atas 5-Day MA (5.194), candle Bearish Harami, Trend Volume meningkat, dukung ekspektasi momentum kenaikan IHSG terbatas & rawan koreksi, selama IHSG <5.262. IHSG masih berpeluang melanjutkan siklus kenaikan selama di atas 5.133 untuk menuju target 5.289/ 5.352. Resist: 5.228/5.262/5.278/5.296. Support: 5.207/5.190/5.173/5.151. Perkiraan Range: 5.190 – 5.260.

• BBCA: Resist: 12.900/13.100/13.250/13.425. Support: 12.725/12.575/12.425/12.275. Rekomendasi: SELL 12.900-13.000 target  12.450 kecuali naik di atas 13.150.

• ASII: Resist: 7.400/7.475/7.252/7.625. Support: 7.275/7.200/7.050/6.875. Rekomendasi: BUY jika breakout di atas 7.400 target 7.475/7.575 stop loss di bawah 7.200.

• TBIG: Resist: 8.075/8.150/8.250/8.425. Support: 7.850/7.750/7.525/7.200. Rekomendasi: BUY 7.750-7.850 target 8.150/8.250 stop loss di bawah 7.525.

• PGAS: Resist: 6.075/6.125/6.225/6.300. Support: 5.975/5.925/5.875/5.800. Rekomendasi: BUY 5.975-6.025 target 6.125 stop loss di bawah 5.900.

• MAIN: Resist: 3.425/3.525/3.600/3.750.  Support: 3.350/3.275/3.180/3.075. Rekomendasi: BUY 3.325-3.375 target 3.500/3.600 stop loss di bawah 3.225.

• DOID: Resist: 273/288/300/321. Support: 254/244/234/215.  Rekomendasi: SELL 267-273 target 250/240 kecuali naik di atas 277.

September 23, 2014

Global Market Statistics ( Monday, 22 Sept 2014 )

Global Market Statistics
( Monday, 22 Sept 2014 )
——————————————-
DJIA………17279 +13.7 +0.08%
S&P 500….2010  -0.96  -0.05%
Nasdaq……4579  -13.6  -0.30%
FTSE……….6838 +18.6 +0.27%
CAC………..4461  -3.48  -0.08%
DAX………..9799 +1.13 +0.01%

EUR……..1.2829  -0.01  -0.68%
IDR……….11970  -12.5  -0.10%

EIDO………28.23  -0.02  -0.07%
TLK………..47.91 +0.40 +0.84%
Arms Plc…68.50 +0.25 +0.37%

CrudeOil…92.41  -0.66  -0.71%
Gold……….1215  -9.50  -0.77%
Tin………..21250   0.00   0.00%
Nickel……17775  -130.  -0.73%
Coal……….65.80  -1.25  -1.86%
CPO….. .RM2143  -36.0  -1.67%

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September 23, 2014

Tuesday (23/09/2014) Early BIRD Fundamental Perspective

Indeks di Wall Street “berguguran” dalam perdagangan Senin dimana Indeks S&P 500 turun tertajam dalam 1 hari perdagangan sejak 5 Agustus’14 dan berada dibawah level Moving Average 14 hari untuk pertama kali sejak 15 September’14 seiring mengecewakannya data Existing Home Sales bulan Agustus yang turun 1.8%, jauh dibawah konsensus ekonom yang memperkirakan terjadi pertumbuhan 1% sehingga memunculkan kekhawatiran baru mengenai pertumbuhan ekonomi AS serta munculnya komentar dari Menteri Keuangan China Lou Jiwei yang mengatakan China tidak akan mengeluarkan Paket Stimulus baru walaupun beberapa indikator ekonomi menunjukkan terjadi perlambatan pertumbuhan ekonomi China dimana kombinasi faktor tersebut mendorong kejatuhan DJIA sebesar -107.06 poin (-0.62%) ditengah normalnya perdagangan Senin tercermin dalam volume perdagangan berjumlah 5.99 miliar saham (nyaris setara dengan rata-rata dari awal bulan hingga 22 September berjumlah 5.97 miliar saham)

Kombinasi kejatuhan EIDO -0.78%, DJIA -0.62%, Oil -0.96%, Gold -0.16%, Tin -0.68% serta kejatuhan tertajam dialami Nickel yang terjungkal -4.22% ditengah pelemahan IDR atas USD yang kembali diatas IDR 11,975 menjadi faktor ES perkirakan IHSG akan kembali jatuh dalam perdagangan Selasa.

DJIA -107.06 -0.62% 17172.68
NASDAQ -52.10 -1.14% 4527.69
S&P -16.11 -0.80% 1994.29
GOLD -1.90 -0.16% 1214.70
OIL -0.89 -0.96% 91.52
TIN -145 -0.68%  21,250
NICKEL -750 -4.22% 17,025
CPO -20 -0.95%  2,091
EIDO -0.22 -0.78% $28.01
TLK 47.70 (2,856)
IDR 11,976

Tuesday IDX Range: 5,189 – 5,229

SELL: ANTM, BBCA, BMRI, BBNI

BUY: ITMG, GGRM, PGAS, BBRI, INDF, KLBF, SIMP, ELSA, UNVR, JSMR (ES CSA®-MNC Sec/Disc On)

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September 23, 2014

UNSP tak bisa bayar bunga utang wesel US$100 juta (Rp1,1 triliun) dengan bunga 8% per tahun

PT Bakrie Sumatera Plantation Tbk (UNSP) tak bisa bayar bunga utang wesel US$100 juta (Rp1,1 triliun) dengan bunga 8% per tahun. Grup Bakrie ternyata tidak ambil pusing atas aksi gagal bayar ini. Pasalnya, menurut salah satu sumber di Grup Bakrie, UNSP saat ini sudah tidak terafiliasi dengan PT Bakrie and Brothers Tbk (BNBR), induk usaha di kelompok usaha Bakrie.

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September 23, 2014

“The smart money always loses money shorting bubbles because they cannot comprehend that it could go as high as it does.” – Jim Rogers

“The smart money always loses money shorting bubbles because they cannot comprehend that it could go as high as it does.” – Jim Rogers

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September 22, 2014

BEI mengaktifkan lagi transaksi saham GTBO mulai hari ini

PT Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) mengaktifkan lagi transaksi saham PT Garda Tujuh Buana Tbk (GTBO) mulai hari ini. Saham GTBO disuspensi perdagangannya sejak 21 Agustus setelah terjadi kenaikan harga sebesar Rp450 atau 225% dari 7 Agustus menjadi Rp650 pada 20 Agustus. Hari ini, saham perseroan turun -23,69%.

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September 22, 2014

ASII: Sector In Need Of Catalysts

At this year’s IIMS, Astra (ASII) launched merely one new model, Toyota RAV-4, while its competitors aggressively penetrated the low-specification MPV market, its most lucrative segment. We cut our FY14/15F earnings estimates to IDR19.8trn/22.4trn (-7.9%/10.4%) and trim our TP to IDR7,350 (from IDR8,200), implying a 0.33% downside. Maintain NEUTRAL. Higher sales discounts reflect fierce competition, which may pressure its EBIT margin.
¨ Higher discounts but lower market share. Astra International (Astra) is facing growing competition, especially in the low multi-purpose vehicle (MPV) segment. This was indicated by the higher sales discount offered on its most popular model, Toyota Avanza, on which the price cut widened to IDR20m/unit in September from IDR18m/unit in June. In contrast, there was no discount on its competing model, Honda Mobilio. Honda sold the Mobilio at IDR162m-201m, head-to-head with the Avanza, which was priced at IDR164m-210m. Due to the price discount, Astra’s Avanza was sold IDR11m-18m lower than the Mobilio. Despite the attractive price cut, Astra’s car market share still slipped to 51.5% in 8M14 from 52.6% in 8M13.
¨ Short on new models at 2014 Indonesia International Motor Show (IIMS). IIMS is the best platform for car principals to introduce and launch new models. Astra launched just one new model during the 2014 IIMS – a luxury-SUV Toyota RAV-4 – whose impact on the company’s consolidated sales is unlikely to be significant. During the show, visitors crowded around thr Honda HR-V and Mazda-2, which we foresee to be the rising stars for 2015 car sales. These models compete directly with Astra’s Toyota Rush and Yaris.
¨ Lowering earnings estimates and TP. We envision competition in Indonesia’s auto market intensifying going forward which may accordingly pressure Astra’s EBIT margin. Tata Motor (TATA) is aggressive in penetrating Indonesia’s auto market, offering six models comprising mini trucks, compact cars, and MPVs to sport utility vehicles (SUV). Mitsubishi (7211) will launch a new low-specification MPV designed specifically for Indonesia’s market and road conditions. We cut our FY14/15F earnings estimates to IDR19.8trn/22.4trn (-7.9%/10.4%), driven by a narrower EBIT margin, as well as the stock’s TP to IDR7,350 (from IDR8,200), based on 15.0x/13.3x FY14/15F P/Es.

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September 22, 2014

China dumps our dirty coal

Hunger for Australian coal helped power the nation through the global financial crisis. That appetite ended on Tuesday. Brian Robins and Peter Ker report

Australian coal exporters are scrambling to clarify the fallout from changes to China’s coal import rules, which could expose the industry to billions of dollars in lost sales as China seeks to cut air pollution.

The Chinese government is to limit the use of imported coal with more than 16 per cent ash and 3 per cent sulphur from January 1, 2015 in a bid to improve air quality, especially in cities such as Beijing and around Shanghai.

At the same time, China is moving to force power utilities to slash coal import volumes, also with the stated aim of improving air quality, although this move will primarily give China’s local coalminers a lift.

According to an analysis by Macquarie Bank, consultant Wood Mackenzie has indicated the ban could affect more than half of Australia’s thermal coal exports to China, although the ban is also likely to hit Indonesian coal.

”We all trying to sort out what is going on,” one large coal exporter said. ”The information has been fairly fluid. I’m not sure what the endgame is beyond driving more domestic production.”

The Minerals Council of Australia said exporters could adapt to the changes.

As much as a quarter of all coal shipped through Newcastle goes to China, up from less than 10 per cent a few years ago. Coal shipped through the port – the largest coal export port in the world – is running at around 170 million tonnes a year at present.

Australia exports an estimated 49 million tonnes of thermal coal a year to China,and a large part of this could be at risk with the ban.

Industry sources said the Chinese government moves were aimed at propping up its domestic coalminers as well as assisting its power generators amid the slowdown.

Part of the measures disclosed on Tuesday include slashing China’s coal import volumes by 50 million tonnes over the balance of this year alone, which could hit the Australian industry hard, they said. ”Both the miners and the power companies are doing it hard in the slowdown, and the measures are aimed at giving both some room to manoeuvre,” one industry source said.

”[Australian coal exports are] typically around 5500 kilocalories and 24-25 per cent ash. So we’ve got big problems,” Bruce Jacques of IHS McCloskey Coal said. Some coal producers may be able to reduce the level of ash by washing the coal to meet the tighter controls, although this involves additional cost and many producers would be unwilling to pursue this option, he said.

”It is a quality and a quantity approach,” Mr Jacques said of the new controls. ”If one doesn’t get you the other will.”

Australian exporters had been wary before the decision to impose the ban, since it appears to apply irrespective of the energy value of the coal, and gives exporters of low-energy coals such as lignite a free kick.

”The situation has been fairly fluid the past few hours,” one coal producer said as the initial reports of the new rules circulated, with staff seeking to verify and clarify the extent of the Chinese government’s decision.

The Minerals Council of Australia hosed down any potential impact on exports.

”There is nothing in the information … to suggest that Australian coal exporters will be disadvantaged and we are confident that we can meet the proposed specifications,” Minerals Council executive director of coal Greg Evans said.

”We disagree with the assertion that the coal import restrictions proposed by China’s National Development and Reform Commission will hit Australian exporters hardest. There is no evidence to suggest that Australian coal exports to China would be significantly affected if this proposal became law,” he said.

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September 22, 2014

Berita Saham 22 Sept 2014

•Pendapatan TLKM 1H14 naik 8.4% YoY

•TLKM bersama Telstra Australian bangun kabel laut SEA-US

•DSSA tingkatkan modal di PT Bumi Kencana Eka Sejahtera

•ANTM naikkan capex menjadi USD 220 juta

•ADRO telah melakukan renegosiasi kontrak dengan pemerintah

•MEDC turunkan rasio utang, kurangi beban operasional sebesar 15%

•PTPP akan kembangkan bisnis propertinya hingga ke Australia

•PTPP akan dapatkan 15% saham tol Medan-Tebing Tinggi

•WIKA garap proyek USD 1 miliar

•ADHI revisi target kontrak baru

•META bukukan laba bersih 1H14 Rp49,68 miliar

•SGRO akan turunkan penjualan ekspor

•KKR beli lagi 10% saham AISA

•AISA akan spin off bisnis perkebunan

•SMGR revisi turun target penjualan

•PT Krakatau Posco mulai produksi 2000-3000 ton plat baja

•SMCB finalisasi pinjaman Rp 2 triliun

•Anak usaha DART akan terbitkan notes USD 200 juta

•JPFA turunkan capex menjadi Rp 1,4 triliun

•J-Trust tawar BCIC RP 4,3-5,7 triliun

•Pendapatan CANI 1H14 turun 13,95% YoY

•ASSA anggarkan capex 2015 sekitar Rp800 miliar

•Obligasi valas MPMX oversubscribed 7x

•Red Planet tambah kepemilikan saham di PSKT

•Salah satu direksi KPIG jual sebagian sahamnya

•BJBR siapkan obligasi dan rights issue

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September 22, 2014

Panin Sekuritas Research 22 Sept 2014

Bursa Amerika jumat kemarin ditutup mixed. Dow +0,08%; S&P -0,05%; Nasdaq -0,30%. Dow naik seiring bursa global menyambut IPO Alibaba terbesar sepanjang sejarah senilai hampir $22miliar. Conference Board Leading Indicator AS Agustus naik 0,2% dibawah konsensus 0,4%. Indeks dollar kembali meningkat, sehingga rata-rata harga komoditas menurun. Bursa regional rata-rata menurun mengikuti sentimen bursa global. Bursa Eropa ditutup meningkat seiring hasil pemilu Skotlandia menyatakan 55% pemilih memilih menolak independen.

Bank Sentral Jepang mengucurkan stimulus moneter $571-$666 miliar per tahun untuk mendorong pertunbuhan ekonomi. Bank Sentral China menurunkan suku bunga REPO 14 hari sebesar 20 bps menjadi 3,5% untuk meringankan biaya pinjaman jangka pendek. Bank Sentral China dieskpektasikan akan memberikan stimulus likuiditas $1,3 miliar ke pasar keuangan pada minggu ini. Kebijakan ini menyusul pemberian pinjaman $81 miliar ke 5 bank terbesar di China. 

BPS memprediksi inflasi September 0,5% mom. Tol trans Sumatera Medan Kualanamu Tebing Tinggi dimulai minggu depan. Total rekening nasabah perbankan Juli 2014 +19%yoy. IHSG diperkirakan akan naik tipis.

Trading BOW: ADHI, WIKA, BWPT, ADRO, PNLF, KIJA, ACES, PWON.

China Bans Coal, and Australia’s Economic Luck Might Run Out

Australia missed the Great Recession. While economies in other developed countries swooned as Lehman Brothers went under, the Lucky Country kept expanding, thanks largely to the apparently endless appetite in China for Australian iron, coal, and other minerals. China is the country’s top trading partner, accounting for 36 percent of Australian exports. In 2009, when the U.S. economy contracted nearly 3 percent, Australia grew 1.8 percent, and last year the Aussie economy expanded 2.4 percent.
When it comes to China, though, Australia’s luck may be running out. After years of more than 8 percent growth, the Chinese economy is slowing dramatically. China’s GDP growth last month fell to an annual rate of just 6.3 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, and industrial output increased at the slowest pace in more than five years. That slowdown is hurting demand for Australian minerals. Consider iron ores and concentrates, which account for 26.5 percent of all exports: Prices for iron ore have dropped 35 percent this year, according to a report published today by Moody’s Investor Service, driven down by overcapacity in China.
And now the Chinese government may be depressing demand for Australian minerals even further. Embarrassed by the worsening air pollution in Beijing and other cities, China is taking action to reduce the country’s demand for coal from Australia and other foreign producers. Starting in January, China will ban the import of coal with high ash or sulfur content, according to a regulation that the National Development and Reform Commission posted on its website on Monday.
The government has also imposed 3 percent tariffs on imported coal and is telling utilities and other big consumers to cut their imports. Chinese demand for coal from abroad could fall as much as 15 percent this year, Winston Han, an analyst with the China Coal Transport and Distribution Association, told Bloomberg News.
The news comes at a particularly sensitive time for Australia’s relations with China, following the brouhaha surrounding businessman-turned-politician Clive Palmer’s televised rant against “Chinese mongrels” who “want to take over our ports and get our resources for free.” Other Australian pols denounced him, and Palmer eventually apologized, but the nationalist-leaning Chinese newspaper Global Times warned that the incident was a sign of Australia’s “unfriendly attitude” toward its biggest trading partner. Sure enough, the Chinese media is now talking about the decline of “dirty” coal from Down Under. Australia’s 50 million tons of thermal coal exports to China could be at risk with the ban, the Xinhua news agency reported on Tuesday.
The new policies could hurt Australian miners, since China buys 25 percent of their coal exports, but some Australians are optimistic the ban won’t turn out to be that harmful. For starters, the ash and sulfur limits are much less onerous than earlier draft proposals, according to a Sept. 16 report by Macquarie. While the Chinese are indeed going to impose the tighter standards for some of the biggest coal-consuming regions (including Beijing and Tianjin in the north, Shanghai and other cities in the center, and Guangzhou and the Pearl River Delta in the south), the good news, according to the Sydney-based bank, is that “the nationwide quality restrictions are not particularly restrictive.”
Moreover, with a little bit of planning, Australian miners should be able to find ways around the restrictions, says Daniel Morgan, an analyst in Sydney with UBS. They could take high-ash coal and blend it with other coal. They could also reduce the ash content by washing the coal. “The amount of coal leaving Australia that you wouldn’t be able to mitigate to meet the specifications would be low,” he says.
Besides, there are alternatives to selling minerals to China. Demand for iron and coal is slumping, but Chinese who worry about the safety of the food supply domestically are ready to pay more for Australian beef and dairy products. That’s why some Australian mining companies are diversifying into agriculture. The strategy: fewer rocks, more cows. And for those who still want to sell Mined-in-Australia minerals, there’s another big market nearby: India. After enduring a nasty slide, the Indian economy is on the upswing again and by 2016 may outperform China’s. India, says Morgan, “is the market that’s going to grow the most.”

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September 22, 2014

Global Market Statistics ( Monday, 22 Sept 2014 )

Global Market Statistics
( Monday, 22 Sept 2014 )
——————————————-
DJIA………17279 +13.7 +0.08%
S&P 500….2010  -0.96  -0.05%
Nasdaq……4579  -13.6  -0.30%
FTSE……….6838 +18.6 +0.27%
CAC………..4461  -3.48  -0.08%
DAX………..9799 +1.13 +0.01%

EUR……..1.2829  -0.01  -0.68%
IDR……….11970  -12.5  -0.10%

EIDO………28.23  -0.02  -0.07%
TLK………..47.91 +0.40 +0.84%
Arms Plc…68.50 +0.25 +0.37%

CrudeOil…92.41  -0.66  -0.71%
Gold……….1215  -9.50  -0.77%
Tin………..21250   0.00   0.00%
Nickel……17775  -130.  -0.73%
Coal……….65.80  -1.25  -1.86%
CPO….. .RM2143  -36.0  -1.67%
——————————————-
DJIA………17279 +13.7 +0.08%
S&P 500….2010  -0.96  -0.05%
Nasdaq……4579  -13.6  -0.30%
FTSE……….6838 +18.6 +0.27%
CAC………..4461  -3.48  -0.08%
DAX………..9799 +1.13 +0.01%

EUR……..1.2829  -0.01  -0.68%
IDR……….11970  -12.5  -0.10%

EIDO………28.23  -0.02  -0.07%
TLK………..47.91 +0.40 +0.84%
Arms Plc…68.50 +0.25 +0.37%

CrudeOil…92.41  -0.66  -0.71%
Gold……….1215  -9.50  -0.77%
Tin………..21250   0.00   0.00%
Nickel……17775  -130.  -0.73%
Coal……….65.80  -1.25  -1.86%
CPO….. .RM2143  -36.0  -1.67%

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September 22, 2014

MARKETs STOCK INDEXES (22 September 2014)

MARKETs STOCK INDEXES
(22 September 2014)

• INDONESIA
JCI : 5,227.582  +19.440  +0.373%
Val : 7,248 (Bill Rp), Vol : 5,344 (Mill. Sh)
Reguler : 6,116 B
Negotiated : 1,132 B

Today Foreign Net Trading Value : Net Buy 282.2 (in billion Rp)

Year 2014 Foreign Net Trading Value : Net Buy 52,902.2 (in billion Rp)

USD/IDR BI : 11,985.0
WTI OIL ($/bbl) : 93.1

INOCD5 Indonesia CDS 5-yr : 135.00   +0.35  +0.26%

• US MARKETs
DJIA : 17279.74  +13.75  +0.08%
S&P 500 : 2010.40  -0.96  -0.05%
Nasdaq : 4579.79  -13.64  -0.30%
VIX : 12.11  +0.08  +0.67%
EIDO : 28.23  -0.02  -0.07%
DJUSCL : 117.75  -0.75  -0.63%

• EUROPE MARKETs
DAX : 9799.26  +1.13  +0.01%
FTSE 100 : 6837.92  +18.63  +0.27%
CAC 40 : 4461.22  -3.48  -0.08%
ARMS.L : 68.50  +0.25  +0.37%

• ASIA PACIFIC MARKETs
Nikkei 225 : 16,321.17  +253.60  +1.58%
Shanghai : 2329.06  +13.14  +0.57%
Hangseng (HSI) : 24,306.16  +137.44  +0.57%
KOSPI : 2,053.82  +6.08  +0.30%
Malaysia (KLCI) : 1,849.49  +4.17  +0.23%
Singapore (STI) : 3,305.05  +7.76  +0.24%
Thailand (SET:IND) : 1,584.91  +0.68  +0.04%

• DUALISTING :
ASX:ATM (ANTM, CDI 1:5) : 1.10
NY:TLK (TLKM) : 47.91  +0.40   +0.84%  (2867)

SP:JAP (Japfa Ltd) : 0.880  -0.010   -1.12%
OTCMKTS:CPOKY (Charoen Pokphand Foods Public Co. Ltd) : 3.85 CLOSED

US:VALE (Vale SA) : 12.00  -0.32   -2.60%

NYSE:BTU (Peabody Energy Corporation) :  13.29  -0.20  -1.48%
NSE:COALINDIA (Coal India Ltd) : 345.95  +1.05  +0.30%
HKG:1898 (China Coal Energy Company Limited) : 4.59  -0.04   -0.86%

• COMMODITIES
Crude Oil (US$)/Barrel : 92.41 -0.66 -0.71%
Natural Gas  (US$)/mmBtu : 3.84  -0.07  -1.87%
GOLD (US$)/Ounce : 1216.6 -10.3 -0.84%
COAL (NEWC) (US$)/MT : 65.80    -1.25     -1.86%
NYSEARCA:KOL (Market Vectors-Coal ETF) : 18.07  -0.15  -0.82%
CPO (MYR)/MT : 2,111  -34 -1.59%

Nickel (US$)/MT (LME Nickel 3MO/LMNIDS03 ($)) : 17,775.00  -130.00  -0.73%

TIN (US$)/MT (LME 3 Month Tin (LMSNDS03:COM)) : 21,250.00  0.00  0.00%

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September 22, 2014

10% additional stake AISA to be bought by KKR, increasing to 26%

10% additional stake Tigar Pilar Sejahtera (AISA) to be bought by KKR, increasing to 26%. The purchase will be made via a non-preemptive right at Rp2,250/sh for Rp600b (US$50m). TPS plans to focus on its food and drink manufacturing business, potentially spinning off its agribusiness assets, PT Bumiraya Investindo in an IPO raising Rp400b (US$34m) with KKR as a standby buyer.

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September 20, 2014

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. priced its shares last night at $68.00 per share for its U.S. initial public offering (IPO)

Chinese e-commerce company, Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. priced its shares last night at $68.00 per share for its U.S. initial public offering (IPO). Shares are set to begin trading later this morning under the ticker symbol BABA and raise nearly $22.0 billion. The price came in at the high end of the company’s expected range of $66-68 per share, increased from an initial range of $60-66.

update: open at 92.7

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September 19, 2014

Alibaba shares about to open as the biggest IPO in history at NYSE.

Alibaba shares about to open as the biggest IPO in history at NYSE.

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September 19, 2014

2nd SESSION JCI on 19.09.2014

IHSG @5227.58 (+19.440pts) (+0.373%)
(H: 5250.83 ; L: 5210.31)
Value: 7.248 T (NG 1.131 T )…!!!
Volume: 54.317 M Lot (NG 13.194 M Lot)
Foreign Nett Buy 281.94 B **
Incl.Crossing**
KPIG. @1050 ~  220.55 B (D vs F)
VIVA. @416.   ~  102.96 B. (F vs D)
BMRI @10392 ~ 166.85 B (F vs F)
Foreign Value 49.0%

*BUY (Regular)
F Buy 3107.9 B
D Buy 3008.3 B
*SELL (Regular)
F Sell 2732.1 B
D Sell 3384.1 B

USD/IDR:……!!!
JISDOR: 12030/11985
NDF:       11982/11971

JCI for tomorrow:
Support: 5200, 5175
Resist:   5250, 5280

6 MARKET DRIVEN BY SECTOR
TRADE.  (+0.28%) (1.69 T )
FINANCE (+0.93%) (1.54 T )
MANUFACT (-0.17%) (1.36 T )
INFRA.  (+0.55%) (1.27 T )
PROPERTY (+0.86%) (814.44 B )
CONSUMER (-0.36%) (428.23 B )

6 TOP GAINERs
MREI.  @4825 (+25.00%)
PSAB. @925. (+25.00%)
MGNA @115.  (+23.66%)
RIGS.  @327. (+12.76%)
ASRM @1350 (+8.00%)
TMAS @1010 (+7.45%)

6 TOP LOSERs
SIAP.   @180 (-21.74%)
BSWD @5000 (-20.00%)
FPNI.    @95.  (-6.86%)
AHAP. @231 (-6.85%)
GMTD @8000 (-5.88%)
NAGA @151. (-5.63%)

7 NETT BUY STOCKs BY FOREIGNERS
BBRI.   @10793(92.69 B )
TLKM @2950. (80.23 B )
BMRI.  @10542 (79.95 B )
PGAS @6011.  (53.75 B )
CPIN.   @4296(52.90 B )
PWON@424.  (36.51 B )
KLBF.  @1679. (28.33 B )

7 NET SELL STOCKs BY FOREIGNERS
BBCA. @12627 (36.11 B )
UNVR @31666 (26.85 B )
AALI.   @23943(19.37 B )
WTON@1199.   (17.03 B )
INCO.   @4059 (16.75 B )
MYRX@608.    (16.64 B )
GGRM @55650 (14.55 B )

8 MOST ACTIVE STOCKs BY VALUE
BBRI.  @10800 (+2.86%)
TBIG.  @8100.  (-1.82%)
TLKM @2945 (+2.43%)
MPPA @3250 (0.00%)
BBCA @12600 (+0.40%)
ASII.   @7350.   (-0.34%)
BMRI. @10525 (+0.96%)
PGAS @5925.  (-1.66%)

8 MOST ACTIVE STOCKs BY VOLUME
BUMI.  @195. (2.451.219 lot)
ENRG @98.   (2.048.906 lot)
PWON@433 (1.969.764 lot)
APLN. @360 (1.277.450 lot)
TARA @340 (1.188.804 lot)
TLKM @2945 (1.155.375 lot)
META @204.  (1.117.914 lot)
MPPA @3250 (968.197 lot)

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September 19, 2014

1st SESSION JCI on 19.09.2014

IHSG @5243.88 (+35.734pts) (+0.686%)
(H: 5248.09 ; L: 5210.31)
Value: 3.063 T (NG 746 B )
Volume: 28.586 M Lot (NG 8.664 M Lot)
Foreign Nett Buy 41.26 B **
Incl.Crossing**
KPIG. @1050 ~ 220.55 B (D vs F)
VIVA. @416.    ~ 102.9 B.   (F vs D)
BMRI @10390~155.22 B (F vs F)
Foreign Value 36.1%

*BUY (Regular)
F Buy 774.8 B
D Buy 1542.4 B
*SELL (Regular)
F Sell 617.7 B
D Sell 1699.5 B

USD/IDR:……!!!
JISDOR: 12030/11985
NDF:       11982/11989

JCI for today:
Support: 5200, 5175
Resist: 5250, 5280

6 MARKET DRIVEN BY SECTOR
TRADE (+0.30%) (1.09 T )
FINANCE (+1.18%) (678.38 B )…!!!!
PROPERTY (+1.00%) (379.23 B )…!!!
MANUFACT (-0.04%) (362.26 B )
INFRA (+1.76%). (312.20 B )…!!!
AGRI.  (+0.47%) (144.47 B )…!!!

7 NETT BUY STOCKs BY FOREIGNERS
TLKM @2938. (41.15 B )
PGAS @6046. (37.78 B )
BBRI.   @10713 (34.43 B )
BMRI.  @10534(25.82 B )
CPIN.   @4284 (18.45 B )
PWON@421.   (18.20 B )
MPPA. @3298 (17.46 B )

7 NETT SELL STOCKs BY FOREIGNERS
SILO.   @15532(23.05 B )
SSMS @1395.  (13.35 B )
MYRX @609.  (10.46 B )
AKRA. @5279 (7.03 B )
WSKT @891.    (7.02 B )
BBCA.  @12615 (6.71 B )
AALI.   @23975(6.38 B )

8 MOST ACTIVE STOCKs BY VALUE
MPPA @3340.   (+2.77%)
BBRI.   @10775 (+2.62%)
BMRI.  @10550 (+1.20%)
TLKM @2990.   (+4.00%)
SILO.   @15625 (+2.63%)
SSMS @1395.   (0.00%)
BBCA.  @12650 (+0.80%)
PGAS. @6050.  (+0.41%)

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September 19, 2014

ADHI menurunkan target laba 2014 sebesar 25% akibat adanya perlambatan proyek konstruksi di dalam negeri karena ketidakpastian politik pada semester pertama

PT Adhi Karya (ADHI) menurunkan target laba 2014 sebesar 25% akibat adanya perlambatan proyek konstruksi di dalam negeri karena ketidakpastian politik pada semester pertama. Perseroan menurunkan target laba menjadi Rp426,5M dari Rp 571M namun laba masih naik 5,1% (yoy). Target Kontrak baru menjadi Rp15,2T atau tumbuh 40,3% (yoy).

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September 19, 2014

ASSA akan menambah 2.000 armada baru sehingga akan memiliki 17.000 armada

PT Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA) akan menambah 2.000 armada baru sehingga akan memiliki 17.000 armada. Tahun ini akan membeli 4.000 kendaraan, dimana 2.000 penambahan dan 2.000 lagi sebagai penggantian.

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September 19, 2014

RCTI won digital TV tender for Greater Jakarta area

MNCN won all 7 digital TV zones tendered. Based on the news from Kontan, the Ministry of Communication and
Informatics (Kominfo) has added two more winners of the digital TV multiplexing tender for the Greater Jakarta area
(Zone 4), namely Rajawali’s RTV and MNCN’s RCTI. Originally, there were 5 winners for zone 4’s tender which include
BSTV, TV One, Metro TV, SCTV, and Trans TV. With RCTI winning the tender for zone 4, that makes MNCN the third group
who won all 7 zones, which are has been tendered, after SCMA and the Trans Group.
„
Winners have options to lease some of its channels. Each of the tender winners will be able to air 9 channels in High
Definition (HD) or 12 channels in Standard Definition (SD). Some of the tender winners have the option to lease some of
the channels or sell their rights to their competitors. For example, Rajawali’s RTV is already planning to lease some of its
channels and expects a margin of 30%.
„
Positive for MNCN. We view this as positive for MNCN as originally the company would need to lease some channels from
its competitors to broadcast digital TV in the Greater Jakarta area. Thus, by winning the tender for zone 4, it should
reduce the company’s recurring cost in the future to broadcast digital TV. MNCN has already started the preparation for
the digital TV transition with investments on the infrastructure, digital transmitter, and set up box. As a comparison,
SCMA who won 7 zones has already invested USD12mn for the digital TV infrastructure. We have a BUY call on MNCN
with TP Rp3,800. The counter is currently trading at 20.2-16.5x FY14-15F PE.

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September 19, 2014

PTPP pada 2015 akan ekspansi bisnis properti hingga ke Australia dengan membangun kawasan residensial dan komersial di Perth dengan nilai investasi Rp1,6-1,7T

PT PP (PTPP) pada 2015 akan ekspansi bisnis properti hingga ke Australia dengan membangun kawasan residensial dan komersial di Perth dengan nilai investasi Rp1,6-1,7T. Rencananya akan dibentuk joint venture dimana perseroan sebagai mayoritas 85-90%. Dari domestik, perseroan mendapat proyek pengerjaan ruas tol Medan-Tebing Tinggi yang merupakan proyek konsorsium BUMN dengan total nilai Rp4T.

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September 19, 2014

Tax revenue realization rate improves

Tax revenue has been realized by as much as Rp653tn or 65% of APBN-2014 target as of 15 Sep14. The realization rate is better
than 59% in the same period last year.

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September 19, 2014

DSSA telah menambah modal ke anak usaha yakni PT Bumi Kencana Eka Sejahtera dari Rp189,5M menjadi Rp392,5M

PT Dian Swastatika Sentosa (DSSA) telah menambah modal ke anak usaha yakni PT Bumi Kencana Eka Sejahtera dari Rp189,5M menjadi Rp392,5M. Perseroan akan menguasai 392.539 saham PT Bumi Kencana Eka Sejahtera, atau 99,999% sedangkan sisanya dimiliki PT Sinar Mas Cakrawala.

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September 19, 2014

UNVR: Increase 5%ASP as of September 2014

UNVR has officially announced its another 4-5%ASP hike as of September 15th, 2014, across segments in order to
maintain its profitability especially to address IDR depreciation which led raw material cost hike rather than the higher
royalty rate. Overall, YTD UNVR has increased its ASP by 9-10%. UNVR views that the ASP increase is manageable and
aligns with its product innovation
„
We view this positively and it’s in-line with our view as we have highlighted in our previous report we do expect that
UNVR likely to regain its double digit NPAT growth by 4Q14 along with its margin recovery with EBIT margin potentially
normalize back to level 23-24% vs 21-22% in 1Q14, despite we expect that 3Q14 sales and earnings remain under
pressure and slow down post election effect and Ramadhan season.
„
UNVR now is trading at 35.3x P/E15F and our TP implies 8% upside potential.

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September 19, 2014

Mitsubishi & Ichitan enters Drink Business, partnering with Alfa Group

Mitsubishi & Ichitan enters Drink Business, partnering with Alfa Group. The joint company will build a drink factory in Indonesia with initial investment of Rp400bn. The launch of the Ichitan tea products is planned in 2015, while factory construction in 2016. Mitsubishi will partner with Alfa Group to form PT Atri Pasifik, which will own 50% of PT Ichitan Indonesia. Ichitan Group will own the remaining 50%. Atri Pasifik (Mitsubishi+Alfa Group) will play the production and distribution role, while Ichitan will play the marketing role.

September 19, 2014

AISA: 2Q14 results, below expectation

1H14 results: below expectation. AISA reported 1H14 NPAT of Rp173bn (+29%YoY), about 10% below our expectation,
accounting 42% and 43% of FY14F consensus and our forecasts respectively. However, top line growth remains solid at
37%YoY and 39%YoY for 1H14 and 2Q14 respectively, vs 35%YoY in 1Q14.
„
Margin compression in 2Q14. We view the main drag factor is higher than expected opex which up 43%YoY in 2Q14
resulting EBIT margin down to 13.7% vs 15.2% in 1Q14. Detail of the audited report has not been released yet. However,
we expect margin compression mostly coming from the food manufacturing business side.
„
Subject to potential earnings downgrade. Long form detail audited report yet to be announced end of today. Given
weaker than expected 1H14 results we may expect potential earnings downgrade for AISA as we expect rice business to
slow down in 3Q14 before picking up in 4Q14 seasonally. We will review and revisit our forecasts accordingly.
„
We view that the execution of 10% NPRI subscription by KKR, declining raw material costs and potential IDR appreciation
in 4Q14 onwards will remain the key catalyst for the stock. Short term correction will offer a good buying opportunity.
Based on our current forecast, AISA is trading at 17.5 – 13.5x P/E14F-15F.

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September 19, 2014

MEDC hingga 2016 menganggarkan belanja modal mencapai US$1,4M guna membiayai proyek-proyek baik di dalam negeri dan luar negeri

PT Medco Energi Internasional (MEDC) hingga 2016 menganggarkan belanja modal mencapai US$1,4M guna membiayai proyek-proyek baik di dalam negeri dan luar negeri. Sejumlah US$300Jt untuk proyek luar negeri yakni pengembangan blok Libya dan Yaman.

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September 19, 2014

Indonesia’s total external debt stabilise to 10.0% y-o-y in July 2014 from 10.4% in June

Indonesia’s total external debt stabilise to 10.0% y-o-y in July 2014 from 10.4% in June. Total external debt amounted at USD290.6bn or around 34% of GDP, which consist of public external debt at USD134.2bn (46.2% of total external debt) and private external debt at USD156.4bn (53.8% of total external debt). The movement in the private external debt showed a moderation in the non-banks segment to 9.5% y-o-y in July from +13.9% in June, while the banks segment surged to 30.3% y-o-y from +16.3% in June. Public sector, in the other hand, inched up to 6.8% y-o-y in July from +6.2% in June. On sector basis, the non-banks external debt moderation was due mainly to lower debt extended to manufacture and mining sector at 15.3% and 2.5% y-o-y respectively in July from 15.8% and 7.9% respectively in June.

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September 19, 2014

Banking : July 2014 banking data – deteriorating again

Loan data showed a weakening month for banks with loan growth at 15.7% y-y, deposit growth at 11.6% y-y and LDR rising to 92.3%. NPL level, which improved to 2.16% in June, reversed to 2.24% in July. As we expect the trend to continue in 3Q14 we maintain our Neutral stance on banks with BRI as our top pick.

Loan growth continued weak at 15.7% y-y in July. This is a further reduction from 17.2% in June 2014. Given the 13% rupiah depreciation in the past one year, total industry loan growth was only 13.6% y-y if we fix the exchange rate at the same level as one year ago. Banks have been very selective in giving out foreign currency loans, which now account for 16.5% of total loans. Investment loans growth has continued to slip to 19.2% y-y in July from 22.5% y-y in June. Working capital and consumption loans grew at 16.7% and 11.1% y-y. Among the islands, Sumatra, Kalimantan and Sulawesi posted loan growth in the 10% y-y on continued weak commodity prices. Among the major industries, agricultures posted 25% y-y loan growth, processing industry 22%, wholesale and trade 15%, while landed house 14% y-y.

Deposit growth weakened to 11.6% y-y, rising LDR to 92.3% in July. With foreign currency denominated deposits accounting for 16.5% of total deposits, adjusting the growth rate to a similar exchange rate a year ago resulted in an adjusted total deposits growth of 9.5% y-y. This resulted in rising LDR level to 92.3% in July from 90.4% in June 2014. Time deposits continued to grow stronger than CASA at 20.3% y-y with non-forex commercial banks posting the highest deposit growth in July at 15.9% y-y. Among the islands, Kalimantan remained the weakest area for deposit taking, growing at 3.8% y-y.

NPL deteriorated to 2.24% in July. As anticipated, the NPL level, which declined to 2.16% in June from 2.18% in May, deteriorated again to 2.24% in July. Similarly, category 2 loans increased to 4.9% in July from 4.6% in June. All types of loans saw rising NPL with working capital loans posting the highest at 2.54%. Among the bank types, all local banks saw rising NPL level while joint-venture and foreign banks saw improvement in asset quality. Based on location, NPL in Kalimantan, Sulawesi and Sumatra kept deteriorating to 3.65%, 3.40% and 3.06%. Based on industry, BI keeps a closer eye on NPL in mining (3.09%), construction (4.41%, the highest among industries), wholesale and retail trade (3.18%) and community services (3.73%).

Lending and deposit rates increased again. While the data shows average lending rates that declined in June, they went up again in July. Lending rates for investment loan increased to 12.32% from 12.10% in June, for working capital loans to 12.70% from 12.51% and for consumer loans to 13.32% from 13.26%. Average 1M time deposit rates increased to 8.44% from 8.34%. Average 1M and 3M T/D rates have increased 257bps and 331bps in the past twelve months.

Maintain Neutral on banks. We expect the industry to see slower loan growth and deteriorating assets quality. Indication from banks is that loan demand has remained weak post the Idul Fitri and hence we expect industry loan growth at 15% in 2014. NPL is likely to continue deteriorating in the coming months to peak in 3Q14. We keep our Neutral stance on banks with BRI as our top pick with TP of Rp13,000

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September 19, 2014

Indo Auto Sector: 22nd Indonesia International Motor Show

● We attended the Indonesia International Motor Show (IIMS) in
North Jakarta (DATE). Last year, the event showcased 312
exhibitors, attracted over 373,000 visitors and occupied over
75,000sqm of exhibition area.

● Discussions with numerous participants at the event have
indicated the demand in the auto sector to be improving, but on a
more cautious note. More people are looking to purchase a car
but they are asking for higher discounts.

● Our visit also confirms the intensified competition in the
automotive sector, with many players launching (or going to
launch) new models. An example being Honda with their HR-V
model, which is going to be officially launched in early 2015.

● We believe Astra, being the dominant player in the industry, needs to
step up its game in order to maintain its dominance in the sector. We
see all major players, except Toyota and Daihatsu, are launching new
models. Our industry models suggest volume recovery in the sector
should ensue towards the early part of next year. We continue to like
Astra as the dominant play on this recovery.

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September 19, 2014

China to curb coal import

China’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources has issued new regulation to curb coal import. They will only allow coal
import with sulphur content below 1.5% and ash content below 30%

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September 19, 2014

2014 Indonesia Int’l Motor Show: Highly competitive market

We visited the 22nd IIMS 2014, the largest car show in South East Asia (SEA)
taking place in Jakarta. Among the top brands, Honda once again stole the
spotlight with its well-designed HRV model, which was first launched in SEA
region. Tailing after is Nissan with the All New X-Trail. Not too many new
products for Astra’s brands for next year.
„
Why IIMS matters? Being the largest in SEA, it exhibits 36 car brands and
286 supporting components. It has been the best time for car principals to
introduce, launch and exhibit their new and concept models.
„
Low car penetration has attracted strong investment into the sector.
During his opening speech, Mr. Muhammad Lutfi, the Trade Minister,
estimates that Indonesia 4W sales may be tripled in the next ten years on
the back of still low 4W penetration (37 cars/1,000 peoples vs. Thailand of
179 cars/1,000 peoples). Please see Figure X for KTA from his speech.
„
What’s interesting? Most of the main car brands are taking advantage of
the event to showcase new models and concept cars.
1. Similar to last year’s highly successful launch of Honda Mobilio, now
Honda is introducing Honda HRV (5-seater SUV). Booking for the car
(priced at Rp240-350mn) has been opened with expected delivery
early next year.
2. Nissan team was very excited to introduce the All New X-Trail (5+2-
seater SUV), which was priced at Rp355-405mn. Datsun, on the other
hand, introduced Go Panca (5-seater edition of its previous LCGC
model).
3. For Astra brands, Toyota launched RAV4 that will focus on high-end
SUV. Daihatsu showed Ultra Function Compact 3 (UFC-3) concept, a 7-
seater MPV, which may replace the current Xenia model.

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September 19, 2014

Investor Summit 2014: Day 1: 12 companies

Day 1: 12 companies
At yesterday’s Indonesian Stock Exchange’s Investor Summit 2014, opened by IDX President Director, Ito Warsito, we attended presentations made by all 12 companies (exhibit 4). We list some of the salient and interesting points from the companies’ presentations below:
§ Telkom Indonesia (TLKM): The management of TLKM aims to maintain EBITDA margin at 50%, but expressed challenges as the company embarks on expansion into other business segments with lower margins. TLKM has conservatively guided for 1-2ppt point decline in EBITDA margins ahead, although the company continues to implement strategies to maintain its margins by increasing ARPU. According to Finance Director, Honesti, one of TLKM’s priorities is to have the largest tower company in the industry.
§ Salim Ivomas (SIMP): SIMP is committed to expand its CPO plantation by 10,000 ha per annum with production growth of 5%-10%. In July 2014, SIMP acquired PT Madusari Lampung Indah with total sugar cane plantation of 3,800ha. Moreover, SIMP’s Director, Johny Ponto, stated that the company will cut 2015 capex by 20%-30% to IDR3tn on lower CPO price and weak IDR.
§ Astra International (ASII): Currently, ASII is negotiating with the government to increase LCGC selling prices by around 6% due to higher costs and IDR depreciation resulting in lower margins. President Director of ASII, Prijono Sugiarto, stated that the planned increase in subsidized fuel price would have an adverse short-term impact on car sales. Separately, ASII is building the “Astra Tower”, its headquarter in Sudirman, with total investment of IDR6-7tn, and is scheduled to be complete by 2018. The tower with 47 floors will be built on 2,000sqm land while the apartment building with 540 units, located behind the office tower, will have 1,000sqm land.
§ United Tractors (UNTR): UNTR stated that Pama’s clients may maintain low stripping ratios ahead, assuming they are ready to sacrifice their total mining reserves. With that said, the management is cutting its 2014 Komatsu sales target from 4,500 units to 4,000 units, in line with our current assumptions. Separately, UNTR is attempting to diversify away from the coal industry by venturing into other segments such as the minerals. Based on this strategy, UNTR plans to acquire an unnamed nickel producer.
§ Lippo Karawaci (LPKR): The sale of Lippo Mall Kemang to a subsidiary of LMIRT (an affiliated Singapore-based REIT) will boost 2014 revenue by IDR3.6tn. The management commented that such asset recycling measures are a means to generate revenue and cash reserves to boost working capital, and that LPKR aims to recycle IDR5.5-7.5tn worth of assets to its affiliated REITS annually.

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September 19, 2014

BBCA menganggarkan belanja modal khusus IT sebesar Rp1,8-1,9T atau setara 55-60% dari total capex yang dianggarkan sebesar Rp2,5-2,7T

PT Bank Central Asia (BBCA) menganggarkan belanja modal khusus IT sebesar Rp1,8-1,9T atau setara 55-60% dari total capex yang dianggarkan sebesar Rp2,5-2,7T. Hingga akhir Juni 2014, perseroan memberikan layanan transaksi perbankan kepada 13 juta rekening, melalui 1.062 cabang, 14.528 ATM, internet banking dan mobile banking.

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September 19, 2014

TLKM: Keeping competitive advantages

Spectrum additions key for advantages
The government has given the nod to Telkomsel/Tsel to acquire Telkom Flexi
businesses (including its spectrums). While full spectrum reallocations may
take a little over a year, the approval will pave way for Tsel to increase its
850/900MHz spectrum holdings from 7.5MHz to as high as 15.0MHz. This is
imperative for Tsel to maintain its competitive advantages and retain its
premium brand. Specifically, this could allow Tsel to be amongst the first to
launch commercial LTE services as early as end of 2014. Combined with
earnings upgrades, we raise our TP to Rp3,300 (from Rp2,900). Buy

Spectrum advantages
After the Flexi transfer, Tsel will hold total spectrum of at least 50.0MHz (to as
high as 52.5MHz) from 45.0MHz previously. This is highest spectrum
ownerships amongst telcos. Given its substantial subscriber base, it is
warranted. More importantly, the additional spectrums of 5.0-7.5MHz come
from the more efficient 850/900MHz band. Further out, we believe the
company can and should get additional spectrums in 2100MHz 3G (possibly
5MHz) and 2300MHz 4G (possibly upto 30.0MHz). This should retain its longterm
competitive advantages, and potentially dwarfing competition risks from
smaller operators, which should minimize competition risks.

Earnings (and FCF) upgrades
We have also made some earnings adjustments on Telkom. Near-term
earnings are uplifted by 1-2% (2015-17F), while for the longer term (2021-25F)
we take a more optimistic view that Tsel’s top line should not decline. This
resulted into FCF enhancement from 2021F onwards

Raising TP to Rp3,300 (from Rp2,900)
Post adjustments, we raise our TP to Rp3,300 and retain our Buy rating on the
stock. We derive this TP based on DCF (see inside). Risks are irrational
competition, regulatory changes, poor executions and/or higher opex.

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September 19, 2014

LPPF: Reach for the stars..

Initiating with an Outperform and Rp18,600 PT
We initiate coverage on Matahari Department Store (LPPF) with an Outperform
and target price of Rp18,600, implying TSR upside of 17%. The share price has
done well, up 49% YTD, but we continue to see upside potential due to its: 1)
strength in own-brand merchandise (DP), 2) market positioning in the middle
income segment 3) business model that generates strong cash flow. We see up
to 43% share price upside in our bull case scenario, where LPPF maintains its
strong execution for the next 5-8 years, generating 24% FCF growth per annum.
Dominant retailer in the attractive middle income segment
LPPF is the largest department store operator in Indonesia, with 125 stores as of
FY13. It is the only retailer of this scale that targets the growing middle income
segment in Indonesia, with sales having grown at 18% in FY12-FY13 since the
CVC acquisition. One of LPPF’s main strengths lies in its own merchandise
(DP), with best-selling brands such as Nevada, Cole, Little M, and Connexion,
which grew from 28% of total gross revenue in FY11 to 32% in FY13. We believe
that DP will continue to have robust growth to form 40% of total sales by FY20E,
driving LPPF’s overall revenue growth (19% CAGR in FY14E-FY20E). LPPF’s
own merchandise is also becoming more profitable, due to improving product
mix, bulk ordering and the weak bargaining power of suppliers. Gross profit
margin rose by 220bps since FY11 to 41% in FY13, and we expect it to continue
to rise to 43% by FY15E, driving EBIT margin expansion.
Business model that generates strong cash flow
LPPF has superior cash flow performance relative to its peers, with FCF margin
of 9% in FY13 (vs. 1% Indo. retail average), and FCF conversion of 101% (vs.
negative Indo. retail average). FCF grew at 24% per annum in FY11-FY13, and
we estimate it to grow by 27% pa in FY14-16E. We believe that the strong cash
flow generation is attributable to i) high EBIT margin, as it has the highest labour
productivity and lowest distribution costs among its competitors ii) low capex
spend as a large proportion is shouldered by consignment vendors, and due to a
variable rent scheme with affiliated parties rather than upfront rental payments,
iii) negative working capital, as most of its inventory risk is borne by consignment
vendors, who contributed 68% of LPPF’s total gross sales as of 2Q14.
LPPF’s cash flow generation will enable it to repay the debt it obtained for the
CVC acquisition by FY15E, reducing interest expense and allowing the tax rate
to normalise at 20%, and lifting net income margin from 9% in FY13 to 12% in
FY15E. We forecast 31% EPS growth in FY14E, accelerating to 36% in FY15E.
Trading on attractive P/ cash flow, reasonable P/E
We believe that LPPF has the best potential in the Indonesian retail space and
continue to see further upside. We value LPPF using DCF; our TP implies 27x
FY15E P/E. LPPF is currently trading on 24x FY15E P/E and 19x FY15E cash
flow, both of which are at a discount to the Indonesian retail averages of 25x and
21x, respectively. We believe it is more reasonable to use price/ operating cash
flow to factor in its strong cash flow generation and negative working capital. Key
risks include falling DP and consignment margins from increasing competition,
deterioration of working capital and management disposal of shares.

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September 19, 2014

CPIN: Promising growth prospects

§ Japan regaining interest in Indonesian poultry with CPIN undergoing audit: Given the recent health and safety issue caused by expired chicken meat imported from China, Japan will likely start importing chicken meat from Indonesia for the first time since 2004 (bird flu outbreak). This is expected to start in 4Q14 with processed chicken meat to be imported first at an estimated value of USD200mn, equivalent to 10% of Japan’s total poultry imports. Note that the Japanese government is currently in the process of auditing CPIN.

§ Japan’s higher consumption tax should bode well for chicken demand: On 1 April 2014, Japan increased its consumption tax rate from 5% to 8%, which should lead to a demand shift from more expensive products like beef and fish to cheaper chicken meat.

§ Margin support ahead on lower commodity prices: Given the expectation of a Fed rate hike next year, commodity prices should remain subdued, allowing for lower corn and soybean prices. This should pave the way for margin expansion for CPIN. Additionally, we expect margin support to come from higher growth potential from Japan’s imports of processed chicken meat, which have higher and more stable gross margins. In 1H14, CPIN had a leading 66% market share in processed chicken meat that accounts for 9% of its total sales.

§ Government DOC supply cut likely to provide price support: With day-old chicken (DOC) sales accounting for 14% of total revenue, CPIN should benefit from the new government policy to curb supplies of DOCs. Although the new intervention is difficult to implement with no penalty in place for violation, we have seen some positive impact on pricing with DOC currently priced at IDR4,500/chick (+125% m-m) and broiler meat at IDR20,000/kg (+33% m-m).

Outlook: Remaining positive on long-term poultry prospects
Our economist is projecting the number of Indonesia’s middle-income earners to increase to 141mn by 2020 from 74mn in 2012 which, along with the low chicken consumption per capita of 7.6kg/capita/annum, should continue to drive CPIN’s medium-to-long-term growth prospects across all of its divisions. Additionally, having a predominantly Muslim population (no-pork diet) means that Indonesia has the potential to surpass Thailand’s per capita chicken consumption.

Recommendation: Top pick in the sector with 13% upside potential
Our unchanged TP is based on a 2015 PER of 22.5x, a 25% premium to the weighted sector 2015F PER of 18x (exhibit 7). We believe this premium is justified as we expect the recent market outperformance to continue (exhibit 4), given the bright prospects from Japan’s imports and continued strong domestic demand. Downside risks include a weaker IDR, higher commodity prices, possible adverse government policies and health and safety issues. With 13% upside potential, the stock is a BUY and remains our top sector pick.

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September 19, 2014
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