Banking: NPL in Details – Expect to Get Worse in 2Q15

 Data from 12 banks still shows that banks that went into their “non-traditional” industries and coal-related ventures suffer from rising NPL. The weak economy is likely to increase NPL in 2Q15, especially in certain sectors: construction, trading, transportation and mining. Maintain Neutral with BBRI as our top pick.  Data on 24 industries simplified into 11 industries. Bank Indonesia…

Banking – major lenders set eyes on infrastructure projects

Bank besar yaitu PT Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk (BBNI), PT Bank Mandiri Tbk (BMRI), dan PT Bank Central Asia Tbk (BBCA) membidik proyek infrastruktur tahun ini untuk mendorong kinerjanya. BNI CEO Achmad Baiquni mengatakan bahwa persuahaan berencana meningkatkan jumlah kredit infrastruktur antara Rp14 triliun (US$1,08 miliar) dan Rp15 triliun untuk mencapai Rp50 triliun pada 2015. Pada saat yang bersamaan, eksposur…

BBRI: New Board of Directors indicates continuity – less probability of kitchen-sinking?

● Of BBRI‘s new Board of Directors, six out of eleven members are new and five of those are from within BBRI. The new President Director Mr. Asmawi Syam has been with BBRI since 1980 and was the Director of Institutional and SOE business. The only external entrant is Deputy President Director Mr. Sunarso who was Mandiri’s Director of Commercial…

Indonesia Monthly Wrap March 2015: March Forward

· Key market drivers: After trading sideways most of the month, JCI rallied by 2.8% in last 4 days, closing March at 5519, +1.25% m/m, another record high. After pouring in over $800m in February, Foreign investors pulled out $413m in the month, but flows reversed right at the end. Bond yields rose 38bps bps to 7.44% in March. Rupiah…

BBRI: Meeting with new management: Key takeaways

Strong new team, led by Asmawi Syam We met with BBRI’s new board of directors on 1 April. Asmawi Syam, BBRI’s new CEO, has laid down a solid strategic plan to achieve earnings growth by maximizing internal resources, focusing on the micro-loan segment and improving cost efficiencies. Of the 11 board members, 5 directors are continuing their second term, 5…

BBRI / BBCA : Bank pangkas bunga kredit kendaraan bermotor

Lagi-lagi, bank menawarkan bunga menarik bagi debitur untuk pinjaman kredit konsumsi. Kali ini, perbankan memangkas bunga kredit untuk kredit kendaraan bermotor (KKB), setelah bank menggunting bunga kredit untuk kredit pemilikan rumah (KPR) sebesar 25 bps – 1 bps menjadi single digit. Henry Koenaifi, Direktur Konsumer Bank Central Asia (BCA), mengatakan, pihaknya memangkas bunga untuk kredit otomotif sebesar 100 bps atau…

Planned change to pension payments

The government aims to change pension payments to retired civil servants from monthly to one lump sum payments. This is aimed to make more efficient payments. From government perspective, the lump sum payments will also make for easier monitoring and as well as potentially minimising pension costs which have been ballooning to Rp92tr in 2015 (from Rp86tr in 2014). And…

BBCA: Tailwinds to headwinds

Falling interest rates will likely pressure margins for BBCA. Given the bank’s lackluster CASA generation and position of surplus liquidity pre-committed to borrowers, there is less room to move aggressively on time deposits than in prior cycles. Since interest rates were raised after 1H13, we estimate 35% of BBCA’s net interest income growth was due to NIM expansion, and as…

BBRI is targeting 16% profit growth for 2015

BBRI targets 2015 profit of IDR28t, implying 16% YoY growth. The bank is optimistic they can balance this goal by maintaining NPL below 1.5%. Our forecast are more conservative than the management’s guidance, with net profit 3% below the bank’s internal target. Nonetheless, BBRI will still offer more attractive ROE compared to peers. Maintain BUY with TP at IDR14,000 (FY14F:…

Investors Positive, but Lots of Questions on Rp and Infrastructure

> Still cautiously optimistic — We met with more than 40 investors in Hong Kong and Singapore over the past four days. Their main questions were primarily on 1) the weak rupiah and aggressive tax target, 2) infrastructure spending and 3) government intervention. Overall, most investors were still neutral to positive on Indonesia, having seen the implementation of several reforms…

BBRI membagikan dividen sebesar Rp7,27 triliun dari laba bersih perseroan tahun 2014 yang sebesar Rp24,24 triliun

PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia Tbk (BBRI) membagikan dividen sebesar Rp7,27 triliun dari laba bersih perseroan tahun 2014 yang sebesar Rp24,24 triliun. Dividen ditetapkan 30% dari laba sebesar Rp7,27 triliun dan sisanya untuk menambah laba ditahan. Pembagian dividen ini tidak terlepas dari kinerja perseroan tahun 2014 yang meningkat signifikan di semua aspek keuangan.

BBRI: new members of BoC and BoD and 30% dividend payout ratio

 BBRI just appointed their Board of Director and Board of Commissioner members in the AGM. Similar to BBNI, the members of BoD has been reduced to nine from ten and all of the four new members come from BRI itself. More changes is seen in the BoC members, which consists of eight people, five of them are newly appointed….

BBRI to run branchless banking project

Bank Rakyat management states its readiness to run branchless banking program with agent recruitment target of 35,000 for this year (although the company is optimist it can go beyond that to 50,000 BRIlink agents). People can access micro credit, deposit, and insurance through these agents. BBRI targets 17-18% micro credit growth this year.

BBRI: Pelemahan Rupiah Tak Berdampak Signifikan Bagi BRI

Pelemahan nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar AS diklaim tak berdampak signifikan bagi bank wong cilik yakni PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk.  Mengapa? Corporate Secretary PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk. Budi Satria pun meyakini perseroan tak terpengaruh dengan kondisi kian menguatnya Dolar Amerika. Pasalnya, dia menuturkan hanya 10% dari total pinjaman yang disalurkan perseroan dalam valuta asing. “Yang terpengaruh…

Banks plan for 50-100bps of interest rate reductions in lending rates in business plans

Banks plan for 50-100bps of interest rate reductions in lending rates in business plans, says Financial Services Authority (OJK). BBTN is lowering mortgage rates by 50-75bps this year. BBCA has lowered lending and deposit rates in March following the rate cut. BBRI has lowered deposit rates by 75bps and non-micro segment rates by 25bps (micro was not raised during the…

Government guided a single digit lending rates, no deadline

In addition to targeting below 5% inflation, Indonesian government expects banks to also lower lending rates to a single digit without specifying the timeline for the target. We think the lower rates will be more applicable to corporate credit and could be limited to government-related projects. Currently the base lending rates (BLR) for corporate loans stood at 10.5-11% for banks…

BBRI: BRI perkirakan margin bunga tahun ini turun

Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI) memprediksi Net Interest Margin (NIM) tahun ini mungkin lebih rendah dibanding margin bunga tahun lalu. Hal ini tak lepas dari kondisi ekonomi makro yang belum pulih pada tahun ini. Sekretaris Perusahaan BRI Budi Satria mengatakan, bank tidak menargetkan kenaikan NIM tahun ini. “Karena kondisi ekonomi indonesi tahun ini masih dipengaruhi oleh kondisi ekonomi makro dunia yg…

More bank rates to be cut

Starting March 2015, Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI) will be the first bank to lower its deposit and lending rate as responds of lower BI rate and government’s call to lower lending rate. For deposit rate, BBRI will lower its rate by 75bps, down to 4.5%-7.25%. Meanwhile, lending rate will be cut by 25bps for all lending sector.

State banks asked to share ATM

The minister of state owned enterprises, Rini Sowmoarno, has asked the state banks to consolidate their ATMs in order to keep the operating costs low. This will in the end allow banks to lower their lending rates and hence margin. The government is contemplating to implement single ATM for state bank with BBRI, as the future communication satellite owner, will…

Indonesian Banking Update: Building up hope

§ Lower inflation rate in 2015F: In response to lower inflation rates, Bank Indonesia (BI) on 17 February cut its benchmark interest rate by 25bps to 7.50%, its first cut since 2012. BI expects 3-5% y-y inflation in 2015, and our economist now forecasts the CPI to hit 4.31% y-y over the period (see Unexpected 25 bps cut). That said,…

Perintah Jokowi ke Bank BUMN: Turunkan Bunga Kredit

Presiden Joko Widodo (Jokowi) mengumpulkan beberapa menteri ekonomi dan direktur utama (Dirut) dari bank-bank Badan Usaha Milik Negara (BUMN) di komplek Istana Negara. Jokowi meminta agar bank pelat merah segera menurunkan bunga kredit untuk mendorong rencana pembangunan pemerintah. Hadir dalam pertemuan ini adalah Menko Perekonomian Sofyan Djalil, Menteri BUMN Rini Soemarno dan Wakil Menteri Keuangan Mardiasmo. Kemudian hadir juga Dirut…

BBRI: People’s credit continues

People’s credit continues The high asset growth in 2014 resulted in lower NIM of 8.2% and we expect the trend to continue, compensated by higher volume. BBRI introduced the new Kupedes Rakyat, which will replace micro KUR. We are not concerned over the rising NPL and maintain our BUY call with TP of Rp13,500. FY2014 results review. BRI ‘s Rp24.24tr…

Ciptadana (KI)Daily Technical View  13 February 2015

We expect JCI to trade between 5,300 (support) – 5,375 (resistance) level today DILD: BUY at  Rp 570-Rp 580 Comment: Testing support level EXCL: Sell on Strength at  Rp 5,350-Rp 5,400 Comment: Testing resistance level APLN : Buy on Weakness at  Rp 420 – Rp 410 Comment: Easing bearish momentum BBNI: SELL at Rp 6,600 – Rp 6,575 Comment: Reversal…

Indonesian Banking Update: Rights issue: Deadlock

Rights issue: Deadlock § Failure to obtain DPR approval on capital injection: Commission IX of the House of Representatives (DPR) has rejected the government’s proposal to inject additional capital into BMRI worth IDR5.6tn via an expected upcoming rights issue. The initial rationale of the rights issue was to provide capital support in anticipation of higher loans in the infrastructure-related segment….

BBRI: 4Q14 earnings: On track

4Q14 earnings: On track § 4Q14 net profit in grew 3.1% y-y but fell 5.1% q-q: BBRI’s 4Q14 net profit grew 3.1% y-y (-5.1% q-q) to reach IDR6.1tn, bringing FY14 earnings to IDR24.2tn (+13.6% y-y). This was in line with our and the consensus estimates, accounting for 101.0% and 101.4% of the estimates, respectively (exhibit 6). § Well managed assets…

BBRI: Catat laba bersih IDR24.2t, in line dengan ekspektasi

• Dalam riset report Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI), Rahmi Marina mempertahankan rekomendasi BUY dengan TP IDR14,000 (12.7x 2015 PER, dan 2.9x PBV). • Kinerja laba bersih BBRI di FY14 mencapai IDR24.2t (tumbuh 13% YoY). Realisasi tersebut inline dengan ekspektasi Rahmi Marina. • Pertumbuhan kredit sebesar 14% YoY yang didukung oleh pemulihan semua segmen, kecuali segmen medium dan korporasi. Kredit tersebut…

BBRI: Deposit base to support loan growth

BBRI FY14 net profit was IDR24.2t, in line with our estimate. Loans grew 14% YoY with quality improvement in all except the medium and corporate segments. However, with a successful restructuring NPL will be maintained below 2.2% in 2015F. BBRI now has stronger deposit base to support 2015F loan growth of 15%. With its new initiative to cover for the…

BBRI berencana untuk mengakuisisi perusahaan asuransi, saat ini perusahaan tengah melakukan penjajakan dengan beberapa perusahaan asuransi, salah satunya adalah PT Asuransi Jiwa Bringin Life Sejahtera (Bringin Life)

BBRI berencana untuk mengakuisisi perusahaan asuransi, saat ini perusahaan tengah melakukan penjajakan dengan beberapa perusahaan asuransi, salah satunya adalah PT Asuransi Jiwa Bringin Life Sejahtera (Bringin Life). Akusisi perusahaan asuransi ini ditargetkan untuk selesai pasa semester 1 tahun 2015.

BBRI: Uninspiring trends

 BBRI 4Q/FY14 earnings in line with ours; marginally above consensus; earnings trends were uninspiring  Concerns on lending cap remains a wildcard; 2015 targets unveiled; moderate outlook ahead  Maintain HOLD, Rp12,600 TP Highlights Uninspiring earnings trends  Earnings were mainly saved by significantly lower provisions for the quarter as revenue lines were weaker while operating expenses were higher….

Banking: Improving liquidity

 Improving liquiity should lead to higher loan growth of 15-16% in 2015 with LDR expected at 90%. We expect banks to maintain high NIM of 6.7% in 2015, improve asset quality and manage to garner 20% average ROE. We keep our Neutral call with top picks on BBRI and BBTN and suggest BBCA and BBNI on price weakness. …

BBRI: 2014, BRI Raup Laba Bersih Rp 24,20 Triliun

PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia Tbk (BBRI) mencatatkan kinerja yang cukup positif di sepanjang 2014. Tahun lalu, bank pelat merah itu meraup laba bersih sebesar Rp 24,20 triliun, meningkat 14,35 persen dibandingkan laba bersih 2013 di angka Rp 21,16 triliun. “Peningkatan laba (bersih) ini ditopang oleh kontribusi dari penyaluran kredit yang (terus) meningkat baik itu korporasi maupun UMKM sesuai dengan fokus…

Indonesia Banks: 4Q results to drive the stocks higher

Bank Rakyat will kick-off the 4Q reporting season on 26th January, after market. We expect these results and the accompanying guidance to drive the sector higher. Rakyat and BNI are our top picks. Three points to note: 1. Shift in yield curve: The long end of the curve has already moved down, with JPM’s rates team forecasting 6.5% for 10Y…

BBRI: Deposit base to support loan growth

BBRI FY14 net profit of IDR24.2t is in line with our estimate. Loans grew 14% YoY with stable NPL of 1.7%. Stronger deposit base to support 2015F loan growth. Higher contribution from fee-based income is also expected. Top BUY, TP at IDR14,000 (FY15F: 12.7x PER & 2.9x P/BV)

BBRI: Best-in-class micro business, which is one of the few loan categories that still gives high risk-adjusted returns despite higher funding costs

Key reasons to own this stock include: Best-in-class micro business, which is one of the few loan categories that still gives high risk-adjusted returns despite higher funding costs. Micro CASA is 88%, an often-understated source of liquidity. Barriers to entry are high in the micro segment, and the bank has been able to maintain its market share. Rakyat has more…

BBRI: Comfortably met expectations

Comfortably met expectations BBRI FY14 core net profit came in line, forming 101% of consensus and 105% of our full-year expectations. A strong 4Q14 (improved NPL and loan growth) brought strong closure to the year. In addition, BRI lowered its LDR to the lowest level since 2012, providing room for ample growth in 2015. The micro segment continued to do…

BBTN share price remains under selling pressure today after it dropped by 8% to IDR1,010 yesterday in reaction to Government’s talks about cutting subsidized mortgage (FLPP) lending rates to 5% which creates a potential erosion to BBTN’s 4.4% NIM

BBTN share price remains under selling pressure today after it dropped by 8% to IDR1,010 yesterday in reaction to Government’s talks about cutting subsidized mortgage (FLPP) lending rates to 5% which creates a potential erosion to BBTN’s 4.4% NIM. We think the change is likely to be carried out but is potentially not only limited to lending rates. Government could…

BBRI targets up to 16% growth on CASA

BBRI targets up to 16% growth on CASA – Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI) targets CASA 2015 to grow by 14%-16%. In order to reach the target, the company will start to expand its business to ASEAN where it will open it branch office in Singapore, and also optimize 10,300 branch offices that BBRI already has.

BBRI: Benefiting from micro segment

We raise BBRI TP to IDR14,000 (FY15F: 12.7x PER & 2.9x P/BV). BBRI is our Top BUY with 13% EPS growth for 2015F on top of the 16% growth in 2014F. We expect BBRI to come out as the main beneficiary of Jokowi’s administration’s plan to empower low-income segment through micro KUR, a credit scheme where 70% NPL are covered…

BMRI: Does Mandiri Need Fresh Equity with a CET1 of 14.6%?

· The media (detik.com) has quoted Indonesia’s SOE Minister as saying the government-owned banks (BMRI, BBRI, BBNI) would look to bolster capital, and BMRI would be the first to go for a rights issue of Rp9.3 tn = 3.7% of market cap and 9.2% of BMRI’s equity. · Of the various possible reasons why a bank would need capital (inadequate…

BBRI: Hingga November 2014, laba BRI capai Rp 22,6 T  

Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BRI) berhasil meraup pertumbuhan laba bersih sebesar 20,14% secara year on year (yoy) di akhir November 2014. Pertumbuhan ini membuat BRI tetap menjadi bank dengan perolehan laba bersih terbesar di akhir November 2014. Menurut Budi Satria, Sekretaris Perusahaan BRI, pertumbuhan laba bersih memang senantiasa terjaga diatas 10%. “Hal itu bisa tercapai karena BRI mampu mempertahankan pertumbuhan kredit…

BANKING: Bank BUMN bidik asuransi dan multifinance  

Perbankan BUMN akan melanjutkan rencana pertumbuhan anorganik di tahun ini. Mencari anak usaha di bidang asuransi atau multifinance menjadi pilihan bank-bank pelat merah. Achmad Baequni, Direktur Keuangan Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BRI) mengatakan, pihaknya, masih akan melancarkan rencana pertumbuhan bisnis anorganik, seperti mengakuisisi perusahaan asuransi jiwa. Rencana tersebut tertuang dalam rencana bisnis bank (RBB) tahun 2015. BRI menyiapkan dana sebesar Rp…

BMRI: Preparing IDR9t rights issue?

Local news quoting Indonesia Minister of State Owned Enterprises wrote that Bank Mandiri (BMRI) is preparing rights issue with preemptive rights in 2015, subject to parliament’s approval. The bank is targeting IDR9.3t proceeds, where Government of Indonesia as 60% owner will subscribe for IDR5.6t. So far we see no urgency for BMRI to raise capital considering 9M14 CAR at 16.47%…

BBRI menganggarkan dana Rp3 triliun untuk mengakuisisi perusahaan asuransi jiwa swasta pada semester I tahun ini

BBRI menganggarkan dana Rp3 triliun untuk mengakuisisi perusahaan asuransi jiwa swasta pada semester I tahun ini. Achmad Baiquni, Direktur Keuangan BBRI, menuturkan dana untuk akuisisi korporasi memang telah disiapkan beberapa tahun terakhir. Dana akuisisi disiapkan dari kas internal BBRI senilai Rp3 triliun.

Banking Industry Update Liquidity is a Priority

Deposit growth surpassed loan growth Bank Indonesia has released Indonesian banking industry data of October 2014, and it confirmed our expectation that Indonesian banks in general worry more about enhancing liquidity rather than expanding loan book. In October 2014, deposit growth surpassed loan growth where deposit grew by 9.5%ytd, outpacing loan that grew by 8.1% ytd. From the October data,…

BBRI menargetkan laba 2014 tumbuh 10%-12% yoy

BBRI menargetkan laba 2014 tumbuh 10%-12% yoy. Laba bersih 2013 sebesar Rp21,6 triliun. Hingga Oktober 2014 BBRI mencatatkan laba sebesar Rp20,29 triliun. BBRI menargetkan transaksi layanan keuangan tanpa kantor atau BRILink naik 5x lipat pada 2015 menjadi Rp3 triliun dari 35 ribu agen yang tersebar di pelosok desa dan perbatasan. Saat ini jumlah agen BRILink sekitar 15 ribu agen, 9.800…

Sebanyak tiga bank BUMN mengucurkan pinjaman sebesar Rp520 miliar kepada BWPT

Sebanyak tiga bank BUMN mengucurkan pinjaman sebesar Rp520 miliar kepada BWPT. Tiga Bank tersebut antara lain BBNI, BBRI, dan BMRI. Direktur Keuangan dan Sekretaris Perusahaan, Kelik Irwantono menuturkan dana pinjaman akan dipergunakan untuk memenuhi 40% belanja modal BWPT senilai Rp1,3 triliun ditahun ini.

BBRI Rp5t in capex in 2015, including Rp2.2.2-5t for satellite launch

BBRI Rp5t in capex in 2015, including Rp2.2.2-5t for satellite launch. The capex is up from Rp3t in 2014 and is used primarily for technology. The bank is spending to improve its electronic banking channel and satellite launch this year. The Satellite will cost Rp2.2-2.5t and save Rp500b in annual rental costs as the bank previously rented transponders from other…

BBRI and BBNI to strengthen infrastructure loans

Two of Indonesia’s biggest banks intend to strengthen their corporate loans. Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI) and Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI) will count on the disbursement of infrastructure loans to enhance and grow their corporate loans. Krishna Suparto, the director of Business Banking BBNI, explains that the infrastructure sector has a large potential to be tapped due to the new government…